Modeling the forensic two-trace problem with Bayesian networks

The forensic two-trace problem is a perplexing inference problem introduced by Evett (J Forensic Sci Soc 27:375-381, 1987). Different possible ways of wording the competing pair of propositions (i.e., one proposition advanced by the prosecution and one proposition advanced by the defence) led to different quantifications of the value of the evidence (Meester and Sjerps in Biometrics 59:727-732, 2003). Here, we re-examine this scenario with the aim of clarifying the interrelationships that exist between the different solutions, and in this way, produce a global vision of the problem. We propose to investigate the different expressions for evaluating the value of the evidence by using a graphical approach, i.e. Bayesian networks, to model the rationale behind each of the proposed solutions and the assumptions made on the unknown parameters in this problem.

Estimating Bayesian decision problems with heterogeneous priors

In many areas of economics there is a growing interest in how expertise andpreferences drive individual and group decision making under uncertainty. Increasingly, we wish to estimate such models to quantify which of these drive decisionmaking. In this paper we propose a new channel through which we can empirically identify expertise and preference parameters by using variation in decisionsover heterogeneous priors. Relative to existing estimation approaches, our \Prior-Based Identification" extends the possible environments which can be estimated,and also substantially improves the accuracy and precision of estimates in thoseenvironments which can be estimated using existing methods.

The equity premium and the risk free rate: A cross country, cross maturity examination

This paper examines the relationship between the equity premium and the risk free rate at three different maturities using post 1973 data fora panel of 7 OECD countries. We show the existence of subsample instabilities,of some cross country differences and of inconsistencies with the expectations theory of the term structure. We perform simulations using a standard consumptionbased CAPM model and demonstrate that the basic features of Mehra and Prescott's(1985) puzzle remain, regardless of the time period, the investment maturity and the country considered. Modifications of the basic setup are also considered.

Perfusion and diffusion MRI of glioblastoma progression in a four-year prospective temozolomide clinical trial.

PURPOSE: This study was performed to determine the impact of perfusion and diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences on patients during treatment of newly diagnosed glioblastoma. Special emphasis has been given to these imaging technologies as tools to potentially anticipate disease progression, as progression-free survival is frequently used as a surrogate endpoint. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Forty-one patients from a phase II temolozomide clinical trial were included. During follow-up, images were integrated 21 to 28 days after radiochemotherapy and every 2 months thereafter. Assessment of scans included measurement of size of lesion on T1 contrast-enhanced, T2, diffusion, and perfusion images, as well as mass effect. Classical criteria on tumor size variation and clinical parameters were used to set disease progression date. RESULTS: A total of 311 MRI examinations were reviewed. At disease progression (32 patients), a multivariate Cox regression determined 2 significant survival parameters: T1 largest diameter (p < 0.02) and T2 size variation (p < 0.05), whereas perfusion and diffusion were not significant. CONCLUSION: Perfusion and diffusion techniques cannot be used to anticipate tumor progression. Decision making at disease progression is critical, and classical T1 and T2 imaging remain the gold standard. Specifically, a T1 contrast enhancement over 3 cm in largest diameter together with an increased T2 hypersignal is a marker of inferior prognosis.

Preparation with fasting and acipimox increases myocardial glucose uptake in mice during cardiac 18F-FDG microPET

Purpose: Cardiac 18F-FDG PET is considered as the gold standard to assess myocardial metabolism and infarct size. The myocardial demand for glucose can be influenced by fasting and/or following pharmacological preparation. In the rat, it has been previously shown that fasting combined with preconditioning with acipimox, a nicotinic acid derivate and lipidlowering agent, increased dramatically 18F-FDG uptake in the myocardium. Strategies aimed at reducing infarct scar are evaluated in a variety of mouse models. PET would particularly useful for assessing cardiac viability in the mouse. However, prior knowledge of the best preparation protocol is a prerequisite for accurate measurement of glucose uptake in mice. Therefore, we studied the effect of different protocols on 18F-FDG uptake in the mouse heart.Methods: Mice (n = 15) were separated into three treatment groups according to preconditioning and underwent a 18FDG PET scan. Group 1: No preconditioning (n = 3); Group 2: Overnight fasting (n = 8); and Group 3: Overnight fasting and acipimox (25mg/kg SC) (n = 4). MicroPET images were processed with PMOD to determine 18F-FDG mean standard uptake value (SUV) at 30 min for the whole left ventricle (LV) and for each region of the 17-segments AHA model. For comparisons, we used Mann-Whitney test and multilevel mixed-effects linear regression (Stata 11.0).Results: In total, 27 microPET were performed successfully in 15 animals. Overnight fasting led to a dramatic increase in LV-SUV compared to mice without preconditioning (8.6±0.7g/mL vs. 3.7±1.1g/mL, P<0.001). In addition, LV-SUV was slightly but not significantly higher in animals treated with acipimox compared to animals with overnight fasting alone (10.2±0.5 g/mL, P = 0.06). Fastening increased segmental SUV by 5.1±0.5g/mL as compared to free-feeding mice (from 3.7±0.8g/mL to 8.8±0.4g/mL, P<0.001); segmental-SUV also significantly increased after administration of acipimox (from 8.8±0.4g/mL to 10.1±0.4g/mL, P<0.001).Conclusion: Overnight fasting led to myocardial glucose deprivation and increases 18F-FDG myocardial uptake. Additional administration of acipimox enhances myocardial 18F-FDG uptake, at least at the segmental level. Thus, preconditioning with acipimox may provide better image quality that may help for assessing segmental myocardial metabolism.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Get Your FREE Credit Reports, June 2006

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: Get Your FREE Credit Reports

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, "Free" and "Low-Cost" Computers: Beware of Unexpected Costs, January 2008

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: "Free" and "Low-Cost" Computers: Beware of Unexpected Costs

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, "Free" and "Low-Cost" Computers: Beware of Unexpected Costs, June 2005

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: "Free" and "Low-Cost" Computers: Beware of Unexpected Costs

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, "Credit Card Protection Plans" -- Paying for What You Can Do for Free?, January 2008

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Further insights on the French WISC-IV factor structure through Bayesian structural equation modeling

The interpretation of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV) is based on a 4-factor model, which is only partially compatible with the mainstream Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) model of intelligence measurement. The structure of cognitive batteries is frequently analyzed via exploratory factor analysis and/or confirmatory factor analysis. With classical confirmatory factor analysis, almost all crossloadings between latent variables and measures are fixed to zero in order to allow the model to be identified. However, inappropriate zero cross-loadings can contribute to poor model fit, distorted factors, and biased factor correlations; most important, they do not necessarily faithfully reflect theory. To deal with these methodological and theoretical limitations, we used a new statistical approach, Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM), among a sample of 249 French-speaking Swiss children (8-12 years). With BSEM, zero-fixed cross-loadings between latent variables and measures are replaced by approximate zeros, based on informative, small-variance priors. Results indicated that a direct hierarchical CHC-based model with 5 factors plus a general intelligence factor better represented the structure of the WISC-IV than did the 4-factor structure and the higher order models. Because a direct hierarchical CHC model was more adequate, it was concluded that the general factor should be considered as a breadth rather than a superordinate factor. Because it was possible for us to estimate the influence of each of the latent variables on the 15 subtest scores, BSEM allowed improvement of the understanding of the structure of intelligence tests and the clinical interpretation of the subtest scores.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Beware of “Free Trial Offers”, January 2008

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: Hang Up on Telemarketing Fraud!

Constant coefficient tests for random coefficient regression

Random coefficient regression models have been applied in differentfields and they constitute a unifying setup for many statisticalproblems. The nonparametric study of this model started with Beranand Hall (1992) and it has become a fruitful framework. In thispaper we propose and study statistics for testing a basic hypothesisconcerning this model: the constancy of coefficients. The asymptoticbehavior of the statistics is investigated and bootstrapapproximations are used in order to determine the critical values ofthe test statistics. A simulation study illustrates the performanceof the proposals.

Free entry does not imply zero profits

Traditional economic wisdom says that free entry in a market will drive profits down to zero. This conclusion is usually drawn under the assumption of perfect information. We assumethat a priori there exists imperfect information about theprofitability of the market, but that potential entrants maylearn the demand curve perfectly at negligible cost byengaging in market research. Even if in equilibrium firmslearn the demand perfectly, profits may be strictly positivebecause of insufficient entry. The mere fact that it will notbecome common knowledge that every entrant has perfectinformation about demand causes this surprising result. Belief means doubt. Knowing means certainty. Introduction to the Kabalah.