939 resultados para Bayesian belief network
Resumo:
Replacement of deteriorated water pipes is a capital-intensive activity for utility companies. Replacement planning aims to minimize total costs while maintaining a satisfactory level of service and is usually conducted for individual pipes. Scheduling replacement in groups is seen to be a better method and has the potential to provide benefits such as the reduction of maintenance costs and service interruptions. However, developing group replacement schedules is a complex task and often beyond the ability of a human expert, especially when multiple or conflicting objectives need to be catered for, such as minimization of total costs and service interruptions. This paper describes the development of a novel replacement decision optimization model for group scheduling (RDOM-GS), which enables multiple group-scheduling criteria by integrating new cost functions, a service interruption model, and optimization algorithms into a unified procedure. An industry case study demonstrates that RDOM-GS can improve replacement planning significantly and reduce costs and service interruptions.
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Neuroimaging studies have shown neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES)-evoked movements activate regions of the cortical sensorimotor network, including the primary sensorimotor cortex (SMC), premotor cortex (PMC), supplementary motor area (SMA), and secondary somatosensory area (S2), as well as regions of the prefrontal cortex (PFC) known to be involved in pain processing. The aim of this study, on nine healthy subjects, was to compare the cortical network activation profile and pain ratings during NMES of the right forearm wrist extensor muscles at increasing current intensities up to and slightly over the individual maximal tolerated intensity (MTI), and with reference to voluntary (VOL) wrist extension movements. By exploiting the capability of the multi-channel time domain functional near-infrared spectroscopy technique to relate depth information to the photon time-of-flight, the cortical and superficial oxygenated (O2Hb) and deoxygenated (HHb) hemoglobin concentrations were estimated. The O2Hb and HHb maps obtained using the General Linear Model (NIRS-SPM) analysis method, showed that the VOL and NMES-evoked movements significantly increased activation (i.e., increase in O2Hb and corresponding decrease in HHb) in the cortical layer of the contralateral sensorimotor network (SMC, PMC/SMA, and S2). However, the level and area of contralateral sensorimotor network (including PFC) activation was significantly greater for NMES than VOL. Furthermore, there was greater bilateral sensorimotor network activation with the high NMES current intensities which corresponded with increased pain ratings. In conclusion, our findings suggest that greater bilateral sensorimotor network activation profile with high NMES current intensities could be in part attributable to increased attentional/pain processing and to increased bilateral sensorimotor integration in these cortical regions.
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In this paper the implementation and application of a microprocessor-based medium speed experimental local area network using a coaxial cable transmission medium are dealt with. A separate unidirectional control wire has been used in order to provide a collision-free and fair medium access arbitration. As an application of the network, the design of a packet voice communication system is discussed.
Resumo:
This project has investigated how the architecture of the blood vessels supplying nutrients to skeletal muscles is affected by muscle contusion injuries, and how it changes during healing with or without initial treatment of the injury by icing. In order to do this, we used contrast agents to visualise blood vessels in 3D with micro-computed tomography imaging. This research significantly contributes to the fields of orthopaedics, traumatology and sports medicine, as it improves our understanding of muscle contusion injuries. Furthermore, the methods developed in this thesis may help to improve the diagnosis and monitoring of these injuries.
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Distinct endogenous network events, generated independently of sensory input, are a general feature of various structures of the immature central nervous system. In the immature hippocampus, these type of events are seen as "giant depolarizing potentials" (GDPs) in intracellular recordings in vitro. GABA, the major inhibitory neurotransmitter of the adult brain, has a depolarizing action in immature neurons, and GDPs have been proposed to be driven by GABAergic transmission. Moreover, GDPs have been thought to reflect an early pattern that disappears during development in parallel with the maturation of hyperpolarizing GABAergic inhibition. However, the adult hippocampus in vivo also generates endogenous network events known as sharp (positive) waves (SPWs), which reflect synchronous discharges of CA3 pyramidal neurons and are thought to be involved in cognitive functions. In this thesis, mechanisms of GDP generation were studied with intra- and extracellular recordings in the neonatal rat hippocampus in vitro and in vivo. Immature CA3 pyramidal neurons were found to generate intrinsic bursts of spikes and to act as cellular pacemakers for GDP activity whereas depolarizing GABAergic signalling was found to have a temporally non-patterned facilitatory role in the generation of the network events. Furthermore, the data indicate that the intrinsic bursts of neonatal CA3 pyramidal neurons and, consequently, GDPs are driven by a persistent Na+ current and terminated by a slow Ca2+-dependent K+ current. Gramicidin-perforated patch recordings showed that the depolarizing driving force for GABAA receptor-mediated actions is provided by Cl- uptake via the Na-K-C1 cotransporter, NKCC1, in the immature CA3 pyramids. A specific blocker of NKCC1, bumetanide, inhibited SPWs and GDPs in the neonatal rat hippocampus in vivo and in vitro, respectively. Finally, pharmacological blockade of the GABA transporter-1 prolonged the decay of the large GDP-associated GABA transients but not of single postsynaptic GABAA receptor-mediated currents. As a whole the data in this thesis indicate that the mechanism of GDP generation, based on the interconnected network of bursting CA3 pyramidal neurons, is similar to that involved in adult SPW activity. Hence, GDPs do not reflect a network pattern that disappears during development but they are the in vitro counterpart of neonatal SPWs.
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The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.
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The blood and lymphatic vascular systems are essential for life, but they may become harnessed for sinister purposes in pathological conditions. For example, tumors learn to grow a network of blood vessels (angiogenesis), securing a source of oxygen and nutrients for sustained growth. On the other hand, damage to the lymph nodes and the collecting lymphatic vessels may lead to lymphedema, a debilitating condition characterized by peripheral edema and susceptibility to infections. Promoting the growth of new lymphatic vessels (lymphangiogenesis) is an attractive approach to treat lymphedema patients. Angiopoietin-1 (Ang1), a ligand for the endothelial receptor tyrosine kinases Tie1 and Tie2. The Ang1/Tie2 pathway has previously been implicated in promoting endothelial stability and integrity of EC monolayers. The studies presented here elucidate a novel function for Ang1 as a lymphangiogenic factor. Ang1 is known to decrease the permeability of blood vessels, and could thus act as a more global antagonist of plasma leakage and tissue edema by promoting growth of lymphatic vessels and thereby facilitating removal of excess fluid and other plasma components from the interstitium. These findings reinforce the idea that Ang1 may have therapeutic value in conditions of tissue edema. VEGFR-3 is present on all endothelia during development, but in the adult its expression becomes restricted to the lymphatic endothelium. VEGF-C and VEGF-D are ligands for VEGFR-3, and potently promote lymphangiogenesis in adult tissues, with direct and remarkably specific effects on the lymphatic endothelium in adult tissues. The data presented here show that VEGF-C and VEGF-D therapy can restore collecting lymphatic vessels in a novel orthotopic model of breast cancer-related lymphedema. Furthermore, the study introduces a novel approach to improve VEGF-C/VEGF-D therapy by using engineered heparin-binding forms of VEGF-C, which induced the rapid formation of organized lymphatic vessels. Importantly, VEGF-C therapy also greatly improved the survival and integration of lymph node transplants. The combination of lymph node transplantation and VEGF-C therapy provides a basis for future therapy of lymphedema. In adults, VEGFR-3 expression is restricted to the lymphatic endothelium and the fenestrated endothelia of certain endocrine organs. These results show that VEGFR-3 is induced at the onset of angiogenesis in the tip cells that lead the formation of new vessel sprouts, providing a tumor-specific vascular target. VEGFR-3 acts downstream of VEGF/VEGFR-2 signals, but, once induced, can sustain angiogenesis when VEGFR-2 signaling is inhibited. The data presented here implicate VEGFR-3 as a novel regulator of sprouting angiogenesis along with its role in regulating lymphatic vessel growth. Targeting VEGFR-3 may provide added efficacy to currently available anti-angiogenic therapeutics, which typically target the VEGF/VEGFR-2 pathway.
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WinBUGS code and data to reproduce our network meta-analysis from "Control strategies to prevent total hip replacement-related infections: a systematic review and mixed treatment comparison" published in BMJ Open.
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Octahedral Co2+ centers have been connected by mu(3)-OH and mu(2)-OH2 units forming [Co-4] clusters which are linked by pyrazine forming a two-dimensional network. The two-dimensional layers are bridged by oxybisbenzoate (OBA) ligands giving rise to a three-dimensional structure. The [Co-4] clusters bond with the pyrazine and the OBA results in a body-centered arrangement of the clusters, which has been observed for the first time. Magnetic studies reveal a noncollinear frustrated spin structure of the bitriangular cluster, resulting in a net magnetic moment of 1.4 mu B per cluster. For T > 32 K, the correlation length of the cluster moments shows a stretched-exponential temperature dependence typical of a Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless model, which points to a quasi-2D XY behavior. At lower temperature and down to 14 K, the compound behaves as a soft ferromagnet and a slow relaxation is observed, with an energy barrier of ca. 500 K. Then, on further cooling, a hysteretic behavior takes place with a coercive field that reaches 5 Tat 4 K. The slow relaxation is assigned to the creation/annihilation of vortex-antivortex pairs, which are the elementary excitations of a 2D XY spin system.
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Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.
Resumo:
Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.