Residential property loans and bank performance during property price booms: evidence from Europe

Understanding the performance of banks is of the utmost importance due to the impact the sector may have on economic growth and financial stability. Residential mortgage loans constitute a large proportion of the portfolio of many banks and are one of the key assets in the determination of their performance. Using a dynamic panel model, we analyse the impact of residential mortgage loans on bank profitability and risk, based on a sample of 555 banks in the European Union (EU-15), over the period from 1995 to 2008. We find that an increase in residential mortgage loans seems to improve bank’s performance in terms of both profitability and credit risk in good market, pre-financial crisis, conditions. These findings may aid in explaining why banks rush to lend to property during booms because of the positive effect it has on performance. The results also show that credit risk and profitability are lower during the upturn in the residential property cycle.

Smart-phone based electrocardiogram wavelet decomposition and neural network classification

This paper discusses ECG classification after parametrizing the ECG waveforms in the wavelet domain. The aim of the work is to develop an accurate classification algorithm that can be used to diagnose cardiac beat abnormalities detected using a mobile platform such as smart-phones. Continuous time recurrent neural network classifiers are considered for this task. Records from the European ST-T Database are decomposed in the wavelet domain using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) filter banks and the resulting DWT coefficients are filtered and used as inputs for training the neural network classifier. Advantages of the proposed methodology are the reduced memory requirement for the signals which is of relevance to mobile applications as well as an improvement in the ability of the neural network in its generalization ability due to the more parsimonious representation of the signal to its inputs.

Probiotics, prebiotics, and the host microbiome: the science of translation

Recent advances in our understanding of the community structure and function of the human microbiome have implications for the potential role of probiotics and prebiotics in promoting human health. A group of experts recently met to review the latest advances in microbiota/microbiome research and discuss the implications for development of probiotics and prebiotics, primarily as they relate to effects mediated via the intestine. The goals of the meeting were to share recent advances in research on the microbiota, microbiome, probiotics, and prebiotics, and to discuss these findings in the contexts of regulatory barriers, evolving healthcare environments, and potential effects on a variety of health topics, including the development of obesity and diabetes; the long-term consequences of exposure to antibiotics early in life to the gastrointestinal (GI) microbiota; lactose intolerance; and the relationship between the GI microbiota and the central nervous system, with implications for depression, cognition, satiety, and mental health for people living in developed and developing countries. This report provides an overview of these discussions.

The determinants of online loan applications from small businesses

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine both the characteristics of the business customers and the types of venture which make use of online loan applications. Despite the growth in the use of technology in banking and the advent of online banking, little research has been conducted on the factors underlying online loan application behaviour amongst business banking customers. Design/methodology/approach – A multivariate analysis is conducted on a USA dataset to empirically test the hypotheses derived in this paper. The empirical evidence is drawn from the US Survey of Small Business Finances, which contains 3,561 sample ventures, representing 5.3 million small businesses in the USA. Findings – The paper finds that online loan behaviour is largely determined by the characteristics of the entrepreneur, rather than that of the venture. It is also found that factors that trust, evident in the length of the relationship between the applicants and their primary lender, is important. Moderating these effects is further evidence that suggests the number of lenders and distance between lenders and applicants has a marked effect on online loan behaviour. Originality/value – This paper identifies the factors determining small business online loan application behaviour. This is important because the nature of online loan behaviour is changing the existing relationships between banks and customers. Whilst online loan applications afford banks the opportunity to substantially reduce costs, the danger is that long term relationships with customers are harder to cement.

Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s

Identifying predictability and the corresponding sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate in the case of non-stationary teleconnections during recent decades benefits for further improvements of long-range prediction on the WNP and East Asian summers. In the past few decades, pronounced increases on the summer sea surface temperature (SST) and associated interannual variability are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific around the late 1970s and over the Maritime Continent and western–central Pacific around the early 1990s. These increases are associated with significant enhancements of the interannual variability for the lower-tropospheric wind over the WNP. In this study, we further assess interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the WNP summer anomalies, using May-start retrospective forecasts from the ENSEMBLES multi-model project in the period 1960–2005. It is found that prediction of the WNP summer anomalies exhibits an interdecadal shift with higher prediction skills since the late 1970s, particularly after the early 1990s. Improvements of the prediction skills for SSTs after the late 1970s are mainly found around tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP. The better prediction of the WNP after the late 1970s may arise mainly from the improvement of the SST prediction around the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The close teleconnections between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and WNP summer variability work both in the model predictions and observations. After the early 1990s, on the other hand, the improvements are detected mainly around the South China Sea and Philippines for the lower-tropospheric zonal wind and precipitation anomalies, associating with a better description of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. A dipole SST pattern over the Maritime Continent and the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is closely related to the WNP summer anomalies after the early 1990s. This teleconnection mode is quite predictable, which is realistically reproduced by the models, presenting more predictable signals to the WNP summer climate after the early 1990s.

AMYGDALAR ROLES DURING EXPOSURE TO A LIVE PREDATOR AND TO A PREDATOR-ASSOCIATED CONTEXT

The amygdala plays a critical role in determining the emotional significance of sensory stimuli and the production of fear-related responses. Large amygdalar lesions have been shown to practically abolish innate defensiveness to a predator; however, it is not clear how the different amygdalar systems participate in the defensive response to a live predator. Our first aim was to provide a comprehensive analysis of the amygdalar activation pattern during exposure to a live cat and to a predator-associated context. Accordingly, exposure to a live predator up-regulated Fos expression in the medial amygdalar nucleus (MEA) and in the lateral and posterior basomedial nuclei, the former responding to predator-related pheromonal information and the latter two nuclei likely to integrate a wider array of predatory sensory information, ranging from olfactory to non-olfactory ones, such as visual and auditory sensory inputs. Next, we tested how the amygdalar nuclei most responsive to predator exposure (i.e. the medial, posterior basomedial and lateral amygdalar nuclei) and the central amygdalar nucleus (CEA) influence both unconditioned and contextual conditioned anti-predatory defensive behavior. Medial amygdalar nucleus lesions practically abolished defensive responses during cat exposure, whereas lesions of the posterior basomedial or lateral amygdalar nuclei reduced freezing and increased risk assessment displays (i.e. crouch sniff and stretch postures), a pattern of responses compatible with decreased defensiveness to predator stimuli. Moreover, the present findings suggest a role for the posterior basomedial and lateral amygdalar nuclei in the conditioning responses to a predator-related context. We have further shown that the CEA does not seem to be involved in either unconditioned or contextual conditioned anti-predatory responses. Overall, the present results help to clarify the amygdalar systems involved in processing predator-related sensory stimuli and how they influence the expression of unconditioned and contextual conditioned anti-predatory responses. (C) 2011 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structure, Dynamics, and RNA Interaction Analysis of the Human SBDS Protein

Shwachman-Bodian-Diamond syndrome is an autosomal recessive genetic syndrome with pleiotropic phenotypes, including pancreatic deficiencies, bone marrow dysfunctions with increased risk of myelodysplasia or leukemia, and skeletal abnormalities. This syndrome has been associated with mutations in the SBDS gene, which encodes a conserved protein showing orthologs in Archaea and eukaryotes. The Shwachman-Bodian-Diamond syndrome pleiotropic phenotypes may be an indication of different cell type requirements for a fully functional SBDS protein. RNA-binding activity has been predicted for archaeal and yeast SBDS orthologs, with the latter also being implicated in ribosome biogenesis. However, full-length SBDS orthologs function in a species-specific manner, indicating that the knowledge obtained from model systems may be of limited use in understanding major unresolved issues regarding SBDS function, namely, the effect of mutations in human SBDS on its biochemical function and the specificity of RNA interaction. We determined the solution structure and backbone dynamics of the human SBDS protein and describe its RNA binding site using NMR spectroscopy. Similarly to the crystal structures of Archaea, the overall structure of human SBDS comprises three well-folded domains. However, significant conformational exchange was observed in NMR dynamics experiments for the flexible linker between the N-terminal domain and the central domain, and these experiments also reflect the relative motions of the domains. RNA titrations monitored by heteronuclear correlation experiments and chemical shift mapping analysis identified a classic RNA binding site at the N-terminal FYSH (fungal, Yhr087wp, Shwachman) domain that concentrates most of the mutations described for the human SBDS. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolução e segmentação no perfil dos serviços bancários pela internet

O Internet banking tem evoluído rapidamente nos últimos anos. Se em 1996 apenas alguns pioneiros se arriscavam a oferecer serviços bancários através da Web, hoje milhões de usuários no mundo todo transformaram o Internet banking numa das aplicações de maior sucesso no universo do comércio eletrônico. Entretanto, este crescimento do Internet banking não está ocorrendo de forma homogênea no mercado bancário. Dois dos fatores influenciam o grau de investimento de um banco nos serviços on-line pela Web são: porte do banco e orientação de mercado varejo ou atacado dos serviços oferecidos. Este estudo mostra que os bancos de maior porte e os serviços voltados para o varejo estão mais consolidados no uso do Internet banking, embora os bancos de menor porte e os serviços para o mercado de atacado já disponham de importantes iniciativas de uso da Internet como canal bancário.

Crise dos bancos estaduais: o caso do Banespa

O projeto "CRISE DOS BANCOS ESTADUAIS: O CASO DO BANESPA" tem por objetivo clarificar a problemática dos bancos estaduais, focalizando o caso do Banespa, o maior banco estadual e o terceiro maior banco comercial do País. Mais especificamente, o projeto procura clarificar as relações jurídicas, institucionais e financeiras entre o governo de São Paulo, Banespa e Banco Central, procurando, assim, identificar os fatores que, por um lado, permitem a utilização política dos bancos estaduais como fonte de financiamento parafiscal, pelos governos estaduais, e que, por outro lado, são responsáveis pela atual crise financeira do Banespa. Para tanto, o projeto focaliza: (i) evolução patrimonial; (ii) práticas financeiras responsáveis pela deterioração patrimonial; (iii) relações jurídicas entre governos estaduais e bancos estaduais; (iv) relações políticas entre governos estaduais e bancos estaduais e (v) relações entre Banco Central e bancos estaduais.

Cooperativas de crédito e formação da taxa de juros nas operações bancárias: teoria e evidências empíricas para o Brasil.

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo estudar se as cooperativas de crédito influenciam as taxas de juros praticadas pelos bancos comerciais e múltiplos com carteira comercial em suas operações de crédito e de depósitos a prazo. A pesquisa baseou-se no modelo de oligopólio de Monti-Klein (para os bancos), no modelo de Smith (para as cooperativas de crédito) e na teoria de Fama e Jensen sobre problemas de agência para criar uma estrutura teórica que permite entender a interação entre bancos e cooperativas de crédito nos mercados de crédito e de depósitos a prazo. A validade desta estrutura teórica foi testada empiricamente e os resultados evidenciaram que as cooperativas de crédito brasileiras influenciam as taxas de juros de crédito praticadas pelos bancos por meio de sua participação de mercado (market share). Uma maior participação de mercado das cooperativas de crédito está associada a maiores taxas de juros cobradas pelos bancos nas operações de crédito. Os resultados empíricos também evidenciaram que a participação de mercado das cooperativas de crédito não impacta as taxas de juros dos bancos para os depósitos a prazo.

O significado da distribuição para os grandes bancos verejistas: análise e consequências sob o ponto de vista de marketing

Trata da revolução em curso nos canais de distribuição dos grandes bancos varejistas em função dos impactos provocados pela tecnologia, pela globalização, pelas parcerias e pela formação de um novo ambiente de distribuição eletrônico, remoto e virtual denominado como marketspace. Esse novo ambiente, até o ano de 2007, deverá canalizar 2/3 dos negócios bancários que envolvam efetiva intermediação financeira. A revolução é tão importante que pode significar o início de um novo ciclo no negócio dos grandes bancos varejistas. Os impactos sobre marketing são igualmente poderosos, exigindo dos bancos uma completa revisão de sua estratégia mercadológica. Evidências foram colhidas de extensiva revisão bibliográfica, através de entrevistas em profundidade e de pesquisa amostrai com clientes bancários. Cursos de ação são sugeridos.

Fragmentos de complexidade aplicados ao mercado financeiro

O aumento da complexidade do mercado financeiro tem sido relatado por Rajan (2005), Gorton (2008) e Haldane e May (2011) como um dos principais fatores responsáveis pelo incremento do risco sistêmico que culminou na crise financeira de 2007/08. O Bank for International Settlements (2013) aborda a questão da complexidade no contexto da regulação bancária e discute a comparabilidade da adequação de capital entre os bancos e entre jurisdições. No entanto, as definições dos conceitos de complexidade e de sistemas adaptativos complexos são suprimidas das principais discussões. Este artigo esclarece alguns conceitos relacionados às teorias da Complexidade, como se dá a emergência deste fenômeno, como os conceitos podem ser aplicados ao mercado financeiro. São discutidas duas ferramentas que podem ser utilizadas no contexto de sistemas adaptativos complexos: Agent Based Models (ABMs) e entropia e comparadas com ferramentas tradicionais. Concluímos que ainda que a linha de pesquisa da complexidade deixe lacunas, certamente esta contribui com a agenda de pesquisa econômica para se compreender os mecanismos que desencadeiam riscos sistêmicos, bem como adiciona ferramentas que possibilitam modelar agentes heterogêneos que interagem, de forma a permitir o surgimento de fenômenos emergentes no sistema. Hipóteses de pesquisa são sugeridas para aprofundamento posterior.

Inflation persistence and flexible prices

The inability of rational expectation models with money supply rules to deliver inflation persistence following a transitory deviation of money growth from trend is due to the rapid adjustment of the price level to expected events. The observation of persistent inflation in macroeconomic data leads many economists to believe that prices adjust sluggishly and/or expectations must not be rational. Inflation persistence in U.S. data can be characterized by a vector autocorrelation function relating inflation and deviations of output from trend. In the vector autocorrelation function both inflation and output are highly persistent and there are significant positive dynamic cross-correlations relating inflation and output. This paper shows that a flexible-price general equilibrium business cycle model with money and a central bank using a Taylor rule can account for these patterns. There are no sticky prices and no liquidity effects. Agents decisions in a period are taken only after all shocks are observed. The monetary policy rule transforms output persistence into inflation persistence and creates positive cross-correlations between inflation and output.

A intervenção estatal sobre o mercado bancário no Brasil por meio dos bancos públicos: a tentativa de redução dos spreads em 2012

As taxas de juros cobradas pelos bancos têm sido alvo constante de críticas por parte da opinião pública e de preocupação por parte do governo. Uma das razões para essas altas taxas, além do nível elevado da taxa básica de juros SELIC, são os altos spreads cobrados pelos bancos. Uma das formas para tentar diminuir esse nível é aumentar a competitividade entre os bancos. Entretanto, uma suposta dificuldade para se atingir um maior nível de competição é o grau de concentração bancária existente hoje no Brasil. Nesse sentido, o governo brasileiro pressionou o mercado bancário para reduzir seus spreads e taxas durante o primeiro semestre de 2012, um período de aparente estabilidade macroeconômica e de forte queda da taxa SELIC. A pressão exercida pelo governo surtiu efeito, inicialmente sobre os bancos públicos, e, posteriormente, sobre os bancos privados, que anunciaram publicamente a redução de taxas para diversas operações. Este trabalho buscou entender as dimensões e origens dos efeitos desse posicionamento do governo sobre os spreads e a rentabilidade dos maiores bancos brasileiros. Como resultado, observou-se a efetividade da atuação governamental na redução do spread ex post, da rentabilidade das operações de crédito (proxy da taxa) e da rentabilidade geral dos bancos públicos e privados. Apesar disso, houve recuo por parte dos bancos privados na concessão de crédito apontando para o poder de mercado dessas instituições e levantando dúvidas sobre a real capacidade da utilização dos bancos públicos para fomentar maior competitividade em um ambiente de incerteza econômica.