Endogenous business cycles and stabilization policies

The paper reports results on the effects of stylized stabilization policies on endogenously created fluctuations. A simple monetary model with intertemporally optimizing agents is considered. Fluctuations in output may occur due to fluctuations in labor supply which are again caused by volatile expectations which are ``self fulfilling'', i.e. correct given the model. It turns out that stabilization policies that are sufficiently countercyclical in the sense that government spending (on transfers or demand) depends sufficiently strongly negatively on GNP-increases can stabilize the economy at a monetary steadystate for an arbitrarily low degree of distortion of that steady state. Such stabilization has unambiguously good welfare effects and can be achieved without features such as positive lump sum taxation or negative income taxation as part of the stabilization policy.

Comparative advantage and the cross-section of business cycles

Business cycles are both less volatile and more synchronized with the world cycle in rich countries than in poor ones. We develop two alternative explanations based on the idea that comparative advantage causes rich countries to specialize in industries that use new technologies operated by skilled workers, while poor countries specialize in industries that use traditional technologies operated by unskilled workers. Since new technologies are difficult to imitate, the industries of rich countries enjoy more market power and face more inelastic product demands than those of poor countries. Since skilled workers are less likely to exit employment as a result of changes in economic conditions, industries in rich countries face more inelastic labour supplies than those of poor countries. We show that either asymmetry in industry characteristics can generate cross-country differences in business cycles that resemble those we observe in the data.

Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe

We study the effects that the Maastricht treaty, the creation of the ECB, andthe Euro changeover had on the dynamics of European business cycles using a panelVAR and data from ten European countries - seven from the Euro area and threeoutside of it. There are changes in the features of European business cycles and in thetransmission of shocks. They precede the three events of interest and are more linkedto a general process of European convergence and synchronization.

International Update, January/February 2009

International Trade News from the Iowa International Trade Office

Pitfalls to avoid when measuring institutions: Is "Doing Business" damaging business?

Over recent years, both governments and international aid organizations have been devoting large amounts of resources to simplifying the procedures for setting up and formalizing firms. Many of these actions have focused on reducing the initial costs of setting up the firm, disregarding the more important role of business registers as a source of reliable information for judges, government departments and, above all, other firms. This reliable information is essential for reducing transaction costs in future dealings with all sorts of economic agents, both public and private. The priorities of reform policies should therefore be thoroughly reviewed, stressing the value of the legal institutions rather than trivializing them as is often the case.

Markups, gaps and the welfare costs of business fluctuations

In this paper we present a simple theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency: the gap between the marginal product of labor and the household s consumption/leisure tradeoff. We show that this indicator corresponds to the inverse of the markup of price over social marginal cost, and give some evidence in support of this interpretation. We then show that, with some auxilliary assumptions our gap variable may be used to measure the efficiency costs of business fluctuations. We find that the latter costs are modest on average. However, to the extent the flexible price equilibrium is distorted,the gross efficiency losses from recessions and gains from booms may be large. Indeed, we find that the major recessions involved large efficiency losses. These results hold for reasonable parameterizations of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, the coefficient of relative risk aversion, and steady state distortions.

Trends in hours, balanced growth and the role of technology in the business cycle

The present paper revisits a property embedded in most dynamic macroeconomic models: the stationarity of hours worked. First, I argue that, contrary to what is often believed, there are many reasons why hours could be nonstationary in those models, while preserving the property of balanced growth. Second, I show that the postwar evidence for most industrialized economies is clearly at odds with the assumption of stationary hours per capita. Third, I examine the implications of that evidence for the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations in the G7 countries.

The role of Mexico in the first oil shortage: 1918-1922, an international perspective

In 1921 Mexico produced a quarter of world s petroleum, making the country the secondlargest producer in the world, but by 1930 it only accounted for 3 per cent of world sproduction. To date the discussion has mostly relied on events taking place in Mexico forexplaining the decline of the industry. Very little attention has been placed todevelopments in petroleum industry elsewhere, except Venezuela. Practically noattention has been paid to the reasons for the rise of oil output in Mexico. This neglectsthe massive changes taking place in the petroleum industry worldwide during the GreatWar years and its aftermath, and overall ignores the shortage of oil that occurred in theworld s markets between 1918-1921. These are crucial events in order to understand theearly rise of the Mexican oil industry and set the basis for a better understanding of thesubsequent sudden decline.

International accounting harmonisation - A comparison of Spain, Sweden and Austria

Despite attempts to secure harmonisation of accounting practice,significant variations in accounting rules and practice continueto arise in European countries, variations which give rise tocompliance costs for multinational companies.Firstly, this paper considers the relevance of internationalaccounting harmonisation for European business. It then proceedsto examine accounting regulation in three countries: Spain, Swedenand Austria, highlighting the key regulatory issues of the 'trueand fair' view requirement and the link between taxation andaccounting. The three countries are selected because of theinteresting contrasts which they provide; these contrasts areexamined in detail in the paper.The work is based upon a series of interviews carried out withleading accounting practitioners in the three countries during1996-97.The paper concludes that there are significant obstacles toaccounting harmonisation in Europe and that there is potentialfor continuing diversity of national accounting practice.

International Update, May 2009

International Office news and events.

Cosmopolitan Capital and the Internationalization of the Field of Business Elites: Evidence from the Swiss Case

The aim of this contribution is to explore how the recent internationalization and the increasing importance of 'cosmopolitan capital' has impacted on the structure and character of the field of the Swiss business elite. For this purpose we will develop the notion of cosmopolitan capital and comparatively investigate the field of the Swiss business elite in 1980, 2000 and 2010 with multiple correspondence analysis. We can show that in this period international managers with transnational careers and networks not only grow in number, but come to conquer the apex of the biggest and highest capitalized Swiss firms. At the same time, national forms of capital decline in importance and Swiss managers themselves are differentiated increasingly into national and international fractions.

International Update, July/August 2009

International news from the Iowa International Office, Business Development Division

Business Sphere, Vol. 18, no.2

The biosciences industry significantly impacts Iowa’s economy. Kemin, Integrated DNA Technologies, Archer Daniels Midland Co., Roquette America, Cargill, Monsanto and DuPont’s Pioneer Hi-Bred International are only a few of Iowa’s 1,800 bioscience companies employing more than 83,000 people. Everyday, Kemin and other Iowa life sciences companies seek to commercialize new bioscience innovations. Together with Iowa’s outstanding business climate, a skilled, well educated and adaptable workforce, and an enviable quality of life, Iowa is providing bioscience companies with an exciting new resource to assist us in our endeavors: The Biosciences Alliance of Iowa.

Business Sphere, Vol. 19, no.2

The first commercial quantities of a soybean oil with about three percent linolenic acid oil were produced in Iowa in 1994 through a collaboration with Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc. Continued to breed new soybean varieties with a focus on a even lower linolenic acid content of one percent. I was interested in understanding whether the oil would be stable enough to eliminate the need for chemical hydrogenation. During the process of increasing one percent linolenic acid seed varieties to obtain oil for testing, the Food and Drug Administration announced it would require labeling for trans fat beginning in 2006. Instead of using the seed of the new varieties to obtain oil for testing, it was used for further seed production so that commercial quantities of the one percent linolenic acid oil could be available as quickly as possible.

International Update, May-June 2010

International News from the Iowa International Trade Office of the Iowa Department of Economic Development's Business Development Division.