The airEXODUS evacuation model and its application to aircraft safety

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, in cabin crew training and post-mortem accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and the costs involved in performing full-scale certification trials are high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools are essential. Furthermore, evacuation models provide insight into the evacuation process that is impossible to derive from a single certification trial. The airEXODUS evacuation model has been under development since 1989 with support from the UK CAA and the aviation industry. In addition to describing the capabilities of the airEXODUS evacuation model, this paper describes the findings of a recent CAA project aimed at investigating model accuracy in predicting past certification trials. Furthermore, airEXODUS is used to examine issues related to the Blended Wing Body (BWB) and Very Large Transport Aircraft (VLTA). These radical new aircraft concepts pose considerable challenges to designers, operators and certification authorities. BWB concepts involving one or two decks with possibly four or more aisles offer even greater challenges. Can the largest exits currently available cope with passenger flow arising from four or five aisles? Do we need to consider new concepts in exit design? Should the main aisle be made wider to accommodate more passengers? In this paper we discuss various issues evacuation related issues associated VLTA and BWB aircraft and demonstrate how computer based evacuation models can be used to investigage these issues through examination of aisle/exit configurations for BWB cabin layouts.

The AASK Database V3.0: a database of human experience during aircraft evacuation incidents

This paper describes recent developments with the Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database. The AASK database is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents developed by the Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich with support from the UK CAA. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. Access to the latest version of the database (AASK V3.0) is available over the Internet. AASK consists of information derived from both passenger and cabin crew interviews, information concerning fatalities and basic accident details. Also provided with AASK is the Seat Plan Viewer that graphically displays the starting locations of all the passengers - both survivors and fatalities - as well as the exits used by the survivors. Data entered into the AASK database is extracted from the transcripts supplied by the National Transportation Safety Board in the US and the Air Accident Investigation Branch in the UK. The quality and quantity of the data was very variable ranging from short summary reports of the accidents to boxes of individual accounts from passengers, crew and investigators. Data imported into AASK V3.0 includes information from 55 accidents and individual accounts from 1295 passengers and 110 crew.

Self-adaptability and man-in-the-loop: a dilemma in autonomic computing systems

This paper addresses some controversial issues relating to two main questions. Firstly, we discuss 'man-in-the loop' issues in SAACS. Some people advocate this must always be so that man's decisions can override autonomic components. In this case, the system has two subsystems - man and machine. Can we, however, have a fully autonomic machine - with no man in sight; even for short periods of time? What kinds of systems require man to always be in the loop? What is the optimum balance in self-to-human control? How do we determine the optimum? How far can we go in describing self-behaviour? How does a SAACS system handle unexpected behaviour? Secondly, what are the challenges/obstacles in testing SAACS in the context of self/human dilemma? Are there any lesson to be learned from other programmes e.g. Star-wars, aviation and space explorations? What role human factors and behavioural models play whilst in interacting with SAACS?.

Computational fire engineering - do we have what we need?

This presentation will attempt to address the issue of whether the engineering design community has the knowledge, data and tool sets required to undertake advanced evacuation analysis. In discussing this issue I want to draw on examples not only from the building industry but more widely from where ever people come into contact with an environment fashioned by man. Prescriptive design regulations the world over suggest that if we follow a particular set of essentially configurational regulations concerning travel distances, number of exits, exit widths, etc it should be possible to evacuate a structure within a pre-defined acceptable amount of time. In the U.K. for public buildings this turns out to be 2.5 minutes, internationally in the aviation industry this is 90 seconds, in the UK rail industry this is 90 seconds and the international standard adopted by the maritime industry is 60 minutes. The difficulties and short comings of this approach are well known and so I will not repeat them here, save to say that this approach is usually littered with “magic numbers” that do not stand up to scrutiny. As we are focusing on human behaviour issues, it is also worth noting that more generally, the approach fails to take into account how people actually behave, preferring to adopt an engineer’s view of what people should do in order to make their design work. Examples of the failure of this approach are legion and include the; Manchester Boeing 737 fire, Kings Cross underground station fire, Piper Alpha oil platform explosion, Ladbroke Grove Rail crash and fire, Mont Blanc tunnel fire, Scandinavian Star ferry fire and the Station Nightclub fire.

Report on the Testing and Systematic Evaluation of the airEXODUS Aircraft Evacuation Model

This report covers the testing and evaluation of the airEXODUS evacuation model. airEXODUS has been developed for evacuation certification testing, crew training and aircraft design. The report demonstrates the effectiveness of the model.

The use of computer simulation for aircraft evacuation certification: a report from the VERRES project

In this paper a methodology for the application of computer simulation to the evacuation certification of aircraft is suggested. The methodology suggested here involves the use of computer simulation, historic certification data, component testing and full-scale certification trials. The proposed methodology sets out a protocol for how computer simulation should be undertaken in a certification environment and draws on experience from both the marine and building industries. Along with the suggested protocol, a phased introduction of computer models to certification is suggested. Given the sceptical nature of the aviation community regarding any certification methodology change in general, this would involve as a first step the use of computer simulation in conjunction with full-scale testing. The computer model would be used to reproduce a probability distribution of likely aircraft performance under current certification conditions and in addition, several other more challenging scenarios could be developed. The combination of full-scale trial, computer simulation (and if necessary component testing) would provide better insight into the actual performance capabilities of the aircraft by generating a performance probability distribution or performance envelope rather than a single datum. Once further confidence in the technique is established, the second step would only involve computer simulation and component testing. This would only be contemplated after sufficient experience and confidence in the use of computer models have been developed. The third step in the adoption of computer simulation for certification would involve the introduction of several scenarios based on for example exit availability instructed by accident analysis. The final step would be the introduction of more realistic accident scenarios into the certification process. This would require the continued development of aircraft evacuation modelling technology to include additional behavioural features common in real accident scenarios.

A computational study of the characteristics of aircraft post-crash fires

Full-scale furnished cabin fires have been studied experimentally for the purpose of characterising the post-crash cabin fire environment by the US Federal Aviation Administration for many years. In this paper the Computational Fluid Dynamics fire field model SMARTFIRE is used to simulate one of these fires conducted in the C-133 test facility in order to provide further validation of the computational approach and the SMARTFIRE software. The experiment involves exposing the interior cabin materials to an external fuel fire, opening only one exit at the far end of the cabin (the same side as the rupture) for ventilation, and noting the subsequent spread of the external fire to the cabin interior and the onset of flashover at approximately 210 seconds. Through this analysis, the software is shown to be in good agreement with the experimental data, producing reasonable agreement with the fire dynamics prior to flashover and producing a reasonable prediction of the flashover time i.e. 225 seconds. The paper then proceeds to utilize the model to examine the impact on flashover time of the extent of cabin furnishings and cabin ventilation provided by available exits

Investigating the impact of exit availability on egress time using computer based evacuation simulation

This paper examines the influence of exit availability on evacuation time for a narrow body aircraft under certification trial conditions using computer simulation. A narrow body aircraft which has previously passed the certification trial is used as the test configuration. While maintaining the certification requirement of 50% of the available exits, six different exit configurations are examined. These include the standard certification configuration (one exit from each exit pair) and five other exit configurations based on commonly occurring exit combinations found in accidents. These configurations are based on data derived from the AASK database and the evacuation simulations are performed using the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software. The results show that the certification practice of using half the available exits predominately down one side of the aircraft is neither statistically relevant nor challenging. For the aircraft cabin layout examined, the exit configuration used in certification trial produces the shortest egress times. Furthermore, three of the six exit combinations investigated result in predicted egress times in excess of 90 seconds, suggesting that the aircraft would not satisfy the certification requirement under these conditions.

Predicting the likely impact of aircraft post crash fire on aircraft evacuation using fire and evacuation simulation

The SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) fire field model has successfully reproduced the observed characteristics including measured temperatures, species concentrations and time to flashover for a post-crash fire experiment conducted by the FAA within their C-133 cabin test facility. In this test only one exit was open in order to provide ventilation for the developing cabin fire. In real post-crash fires, many exits are likely to be open as passangers attempt to evacuate. In this paper, the likely impacts on evacuation of a post-crash fire in which various exiting combinations are available are investigated. The fire scenario, investigated using the SMARTFIRE software, is based on the C-133 experiment but with a fully furnished cabin and with four different exit availability options. The fire data is imported into the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software and the resulting evacuations examined. The combined fire and evacuation analysis reveals that even though the aircraft configuration is predicted to comfortably satisfy the evacuation certification requirement, when fire is included, a number of casualties result, even from the certification compliant exit configuration.

Prooxidant action of knipholone anthrone: Copper dependent reactive oxygen species generation and DNA damage

Knipholone (KP) and knipholone anthrone (KA) are natural 4-phenylanthraquinone structural analogues with established differential biological activities including in vitro antioxidant and cytotoxic properties. By using DNA damage as an experimental model, the comparative Cu(II)-dependent prooxidant action of these two compounds were studied. In the presence of Cu(II) ions, the antioxidant KA (3.1-200 [mu]M) but not KP (6-384 [mu]M) caused a concentration-dependent pBR322 plasmid DNA strand scission. The DNA damage induced by KA could be abolished by reactive oxygen species scavengers, glutathione and catalase as well as EDTA and a specific Cu(I) chelator bathocuproine disulfonic acid. In addition to Cu(II) chelating activity, KA readily reduces Cu(II) to Cu(I). Copper-dependent generation of reactive oxygen species and the subsequent macromolecular damage may be involved in the antimicrobial and cytotoxic activity of KA.

Effects Of Aromatic-Hydrocarbons On The Metabolism Of The Digestive Gland Of The Mussel Mytilus-Edulis-L

1. The results presented in this paper show that the exposure of mussels to a sublethal concentration of oil-derived aromatic hydrocarbons (30 μg 1−1) for a period of 4 months significantly decreases the protein level in the digestive gland of the animals (−17%). 2. The activity of the nuclear RNA polymerase I and II is also significantly decreased in the digestive gland of hydrocarbon-exposed mussels (−64% and −18%, respectively). 3. The RNAase(s) activity present in the nuclei from the digestive gland cells increases following the exposure of the mussels to aromatic hydrocarbons. This effect is particularly evident at high ionic strength [200 mM (NH4)2SO4]. 4. The analysis of some characteristics of the nuclear RNAase(s) (most of which is soluble and shows a maximum of activity at pH 4−5) could indicate that part of this hydrolytic enzyme may have a lysosomal origin. 5. This fact appears to be in agreement with the finding that in the mussels exposed for 4 months to aromatic hydrocarbons the lysosomal stability decreases drastically and the total content of lysosomal enzymes is significantly increased (+42.4%).

Some Practical Considerations In The Measurement Of Pollution Effects On Bivalve Mollusks And Some Possible Ecological Consequences

A consideration of some physiological (rates of oxygen consumption, the scope for growth) and cellular (the cytochemical latency of a lysosomal enzyme) processes in bivalve molluscs suggests that animal size and seasonal changes related to the gametogenic cycle are important sources of natural variability. Correcting for size using regression techniques, and limiting measurements to one part of the gametogenic cycle, reduces observed natural variability considerably. Differences between populations are then still apparent, but the results of laboratory experiments with hydrocarbons from crude oil suggest that it should be possible to detect sub-lethal effects due to pollution (the ‘signal’) in the presence of the remaining natural variability (the ‘noise’). Statistical considerations, taken together with results from current studies on Mytilus edulis and Scobicularia plana, indicate that sample sizes of 10–15 individuals should suffice for the detection of possible pollution effects. The physiological effects to be expected in the presence of sub-lethal levels of polluting hydrocarbons are on a scaie that can cause significant ecological damage to a population through a reduction in fecundity and the residual reproductive value of the individuals.

Effects Of Oil On Digestive Cells In Mussels - Quantitative Alterations In Cellular And Lysosomal Structure

Structural changes were observed in the digestive tubule epithelial cells of Mytilus edulis following long-term exposure to the water accommodated fraction (WAF) of North Sea crude oil (30 μg · l−1 total oil derived aromatic hydrocarbons). The changes observed involved a reduction in the height of the digestive cells beyond that demonstrated in a normal feeding cycle. In addition there was a loss of the normal synchrony of the digestive cells to a point where nearly all the tubules exhibited an appearance similar to that which is usually termed ‘reconstituting’. These alterations were quantified using an image analysis technique and the mean height of the digestive cells used as an index of digestive function or state. Long-term exposure also induced a radical alteration of the structure of secondary lysosomes within the digestive cells, resulting in the formation of large lysosomes, believed to be autolysosomes. Stereological analyses showed that these lysosomes are reduced in numbers and greatly increased in volume in comparison with controls. There is a concomitant increase in surface area of lysosomes per unit volume of digestive cell compared with control conditions. These alterations are indicative of fundamental changes in secondary lysosomal function involving an autophagic response to oil derived hydrocarbons. which would contribute to the reduction of digestive cell cytoplasm. These cellular alterations are discussed in terms of their use as indices of cell injury, in response to oil.