BAYESIAN MODEL SEARCH AND MULTILEVEL INFERENCE FOR SNP ASSOCIATION STUDIES.

Technological advances in genotyping have given rise to hypothesis-based association studies of increasing scope. As a result, the scientific hypotheses addressed by these studies have become more complex and more difficult to address using existing analytic methodologies. Obstacles to analysis include inference in the face of multiple comparisons, complications arising from correlations among the SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), choice of their genetic parametrization and missing data. In this paper we present an efficient Bayesian model search strategy that searches over the space of genetic markers and their genetic parametrization. The resulting method for Multilevel Inference of SNP Associations, MISA, allows computation of multilevel posterior probabilities and Bayes factors at the global, gene and SNP level, with the prior distribution on SNP inclusion in the model providing an intrinsic multiplicity correction. We use simulated data sets to characterize MISA's statistical power, and show that MISA has higher power to detect association than standard procedures. Using data from the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCOCS), MISA identifies variants that were not identified by standard methods and have been externally "validated" in independent studies. We examine sensitivity of the NCOCS results to prior choice and method for imputing missing data. MISA is available in an R package on CRAN.

Association between DNA damage response and repair genes and risk of invasive serous ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: We analyzed the association between 53 genes related to DNA repair and p53-mediated damage response and serous ovarian cancer risk using case-control data from the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCOCS), a population-based, case-control study. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The analysis was restricted to 364 invasive serous ovarian cancer cases and 761 controls of white, non-Hispanic race. Statistical analysis was two staged: a screen using marginal Bayes factors (BFs) for 484 SNPs and a modeling stage in which we calculated multivariate adjusted posterior probabilities of association for 77 SNPs that passed the screen. These probabilities were conditional on subject age at diagnosis/interview, batch, a DNA quality metric and genotypes of other SNPs and allowed for uncertainty in the genetic parameterizations of the SNPs and number of associated SNPs. Six SNPs had Bayes factors greater than 10 in favor of an association with invasive serous ovarian cancer. These included rs5762746 (median OR(odds ratio)(per allele) = 0.66; 95% credible interval (CI) = 0.44-1.00) and rs6005835 (median OR(per allele) = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.53-0.91) in CHEK2, rs2078486 (median OR(per allele) = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.21-2.25) and rs12951053 (median OR(per allele) = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.20-2.26) in TP53, rs411697 (median OR (rare homozygote) = 0.53; 95% CI = 0.35 - 0.79) in BACH1 and rs10131 (median OR( rare homozygote) = not estimable) in LIG4. The six most highly associated SNPs are either predicted to be functionally significant or are in LD with such a variant. The variants in TP53 were confirmed to be associated in a large follow-up study. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Based on our findings, further follow-up of the DNA repair and response pathways in a larger dataset is warranted to confirm these results.

Bayesian inference of the number of factors in gene-expression analysis: application to human virus challenge studies.

BACKGROUND: Nonparametric Bayesian techniques have been developed recently to extend the sophistication of factor models, allowing one to infer the number of appropriate factors from the observed data. We consider such techniques for sparse factor analysis, with application to gene-expression data from three virus challenge studies. Particular attention is placed on employing the Beta Process (BP), the Indian Buffet Process (IBP), and related sparseness-promoting techniques to infer a proper number of factors. The posterior density function on the model parameters is computed using Gibbs sampling and variational Bayesian (VB) analysis. RESULTS: Time-evolving gene-expression data are considered for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Rhino virus, and influenza, using blood samples from healthy human subjects. These data were acquired in three challenge studies, each executed after receiving institutional review board (IRB) approval from Duke University. Comparisons are made between several alternative means of per-forming nonparametric factor analysis on these data, with comparisons as well to sparse-PCA and Penalized Matrix Decomposition (PMD), closely related non-Bayesian approaches. CONCLUSIONS: Applying the Beta Process to the factor scores, or to the singular values of a pseudo-SVD construction, the proposed algorithms infer the number of factors in gene-expression data. For real data the "true" number of factors is unknown; in our simulations we consider a range of noise variances, and the proposed Bayesian models inferred the number of factors accurately relative to other methods in the literature, such as sparse-PCA and PMD. We have also identified a "pan-viral" factor of importance for each of the three viruses considered in this study. We have identified a set of genes associated with this pan-viral factor, of interest for early detection of such viruses based upon the host response, as quantified via gene-expression data.

Spanning the scales of granular materials through microscopic force imaging.

If you walk on sand, it supports your weight. How do the disordered forces between particles in sand organize, to keep you from sinking? This simple question is surprisingly difficult to answer experimentally: measuring forces in three dimensions, between deeply buried grains, is challenging. Here we describe experiments in which we have succeeded in measuring forces inside a granular packing subject to controlled deformations. We connect the measured micro-scale forces to the macro-scale packing force response with an averaging, mean field calculation. This calculation explains how the combination of packing structure and contact deformations produce the observed nontrivial mechanical response of the packing, revealing a surprising microscopic particle deformation enhancement mechanism.

Sticky central limit theorems on open books

Given a probability distribution on an open book (a metric space obtained by gluing a disjoint union of copies of a half-space along their boundary hyperplanes), we define a precise concept of when the Fréchet mean (barycenter) is sticky. This nonclassical phenomenon is quantified by a law of large numbers (LLN) stating that the empirical mean eventually almost surely lies on the (codimension 1 and hence measure 0) spine that is the glued hyperplane, and a central limit theorem (CLT) stating that the limiting distribution is Gaussian and supported on the spine.We also state versions of the LLN and CLT for the cases where the mean is nonsticky (i.e., not lying on the spine) and partly sticky (i.e., is, on the spine but not sticky). © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2013.

A comparison of dimensional models of emotion: evidence from emotions, prototypical events, autobiographical memories, and words.

The intensity and valence of 30 emotion terms, 30 events typical of those emotions, and 30 autobiographical memories cued by those emotions were each rated by different groups of 40 undergraduates. A vector model gave a consistently better account of the data than a circumplex model, both overall and in the absence of high-intensity, neutral valence stimuli. The Positive Activation - Negative Activation (PANA) model could be tested at high levels of activation, where it is identical to the vector model. The results replicated when ratings of arousal were used instead of ratings of intensity for the events and autobiographical memories. A reanalysis of word norms gave further support for the vector and PANA models by demonstrating that neutral valence, high-arousal ratings resulted from the averaging of individual positive and negative valence ratings. Thus, compared to a circumplex model, vector and PANA models provided overall better fits.

Local kinetic interpretation of entropy production through reversed diffusion.

The time reversal of stochastic diffusion processes is revisited with emphasis on the physical meaning of the time-reversed drift and the noise prescription in the case of multiplicative noise. The local kinematics and mechanics of free diffusion are linked to the hydrodynamic description. These properties also provide an interpretation of the Pope-Ching formula for the steady-state probability density function along with a geometric interpretation of the fluctuation-dissipation relation. Finally, the statistics of the local entropy production rate of diffusion are discussed in the light of local diffusion properties, and a stochastic differential equation for entropy production is obtained using the Girsanov theorem for reversed diffusion. The results are illustrated for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Influence of network topology and data collection on network inference.

We recently developed an approach for testing the accuracy of network inference algorithms by applying them to biologically realistic simulations with known network topology. Here, we seek to determine the degree to which the network topology and data sampling regime influence the ability of our Bayesian network inference algorithm, NETWORKINFERENCE, to recover gene regulatory networks. NETWORKINFERENCE performed well at recovering feedback loops and multiple targets of a regulator with small amounts of data, but required more data to recover multiple regulators of a gene. When collecting the same number of data samples at different intervals from the system, the best recovery was produced by sampling intervals long enough such that sampling covered propagation of regulation through the network but not so long such that intervals missed internal dynamics. These results further elucidate the possibilities and limitations of network inference based on biological data.

Bagging and the Bayesian Bootstrap

Bagging is a method of obtaining more ro- bust predictions when the model class under consideration is unstable with respect to the data, i.e., small changes in the data can cause the predicted values to change significantly. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian ver- sion of bagging based on the Bayesian boot- strap. The Bayesian bootstrap resolves a the- oretical problem with ordinary bagging and often results in more efficient estimators. We show how model averaging can be combined within the Bayesian bootstrap and illustrate the procedure with several examples.

Exercise elicits phase shifts and acute alterations of melatonin that vary with circadian phase

To examine the immediate phase-shifting effects of high-intensity exercise of a practical duration (1 h) on human circadian phase, five groups of healthy men 20-30 yr of age participated in studies involving no exercise or exposure to morning, afternoon, evening, or nocturnal exercise. Except during scheduled sleep/dark and exercise periods, subjects remained under modified constant routine conditions allowing a sleep period and including constant posture, knowledge of clock time, and exposure to dim light intensities averaging (±SD) 42 ± 19 lx. The nocturnal onset of plasma melatonin secretion was used as a marker of circadian phase. A phase response curve was used to summarize the phase-shifting effects of exercise as a function of the timing of exercise. A significant effect of time of day on circadian phase shifts was observed (P < 0.004). Over the interval from the melatonin onset before exercise to the first onset after exercise, circadian phase was significantly advanced in the evening exercise group by 30 ± 15 min (SE) compared with the phase delays observed in the no-exercise group (-25 ± 14 min, P < 0.05). Phase shifts in response to evening exercise exposure were attenuated on the second day after exercise exposure and no longer significantly different from phase shifts observed in the absence of exercise. Unanticipated transient elevations of melatonin levels were observed in response to nocturnal exercise and in some evening exercise subjects. Taken together with the results from previous studies in humans and diurnal rodents, the current results suggest that 1) a longer duration of exercise exposure and/or repeated daily exposure to exercise may be necessary for reliable phase-shifting of the human circadian system and that 2) early evening exercise of high intensity may induce phase advances relevant for nonphotic entrainment of the human circadian system.

Relations, residuals, regular interiors, and relative regular equivalence

Given a relation α (a binary sociogram) and an a priori equivalence relation π, both on the same set of individuals, it is interesting to look for the largest equivalence πo that is contained in and is regular with respect to α. The equivalence relation πo is called the regular interior of π with respect to α. The computation of πo involves the left and right residuals, a concept that generalized group inverses to the algebra of relations. A polynomial-time procedure is presented (Theorem 11) and illustrated with examples. In particular, the regular interior gives meet in the lattice of regular equivalences: the regular meet of regular equivalences is the regular interior of their intersection. Finally, the concept of relative regular equivalence is defined and compared with regular equivalence.

Applications of Feller-Reuter-Riley transition functions

A Feller–Reuter–Riley function is a Markov transition function whose corresponding semigroup maps the set of the real-valued continuous functions vanishing at infinity into itself. The aim of this paper is to investigate applications of such functions in the dual problem, Markov branching processes, and the Williams-matrix. The remarkable property of a Feller–Reuter–Riley function is that it is a Feller minimal transition function with a stable q-matrix. By using this property we are able to prove that, in the theory of branching processes, the branching property is equivalent to the requirement that the corresponding transition function satisfies the Kolmogorov forward equations associated with a stable q-matrix. It follows that the probabilistic definition and the analytic definition for Markov branching processes are actually equivalent. Also, by using this property, together with the Resolvent Decomposition Theorem, a simple analytical proof of the Williams' existence theorem with respect to the Williams-matrix is obtained. The close link between the dual problem and the Feller–Reuter–Riley transition functions is revealed. It enables us to prove that a dual transition function must satisfy the Kolmogorov forward equations. A necessary and sufficient condition for a dual transition function satisfying the Kolmogorov backward equations is also provided.

Constitutive modeling of kinematic-hardening and damage in solder joints

Solder constitutive models are important as they are widely used in FEA simulations to predict the lifetime of soldered assemblies. This paper briefly reviews some common constitutive laws to capture creep in solder and presents work on laws capturing both kinematic hardening and damage. Inverse analysis is used to determine constants for the kinematic hardening law which match experimental creep curves. The mesh dependence of the damage law is overcome by using volume averaging and is applied to predict the crack path in a thermal cycled resistor component

Sediment transfer and accumulation in two contrasting salt marsh/mudflat systems: the Seine estuary (France) and the Medway estuary (UK)

Understanding the dynamics of fine sediment transport across the upper intertidal zone is critical in managing the erosion and accretion of intertidal areas, and in managed realignment/estuarine habitat recreation strategies. This paper examines the transfer of sediments between salt marsh and mudflat environments in two contrasting macrotidal estuaries: the Seine (France) and the Medway (UK), using data collected during two joint field seasons undertaken by the Anglo-French RIMEW project (Rives-Manche Estuary Watch). High-resolution ADCP, Altimeter, OBS and ASM measurements from mudflat and marsh surface environments have been combined with sediment trap data to examine short-term sediment transport processes under spring tide and storm flow conditions. In addition, the longer-term accumulation of sediment in each salt marsh system has been examined via radiometric dating of sediment cores. In the Seine, rapid sediment accumulation and expansion of salt marsh areas, and subsequent loss of open intertidal mudflats, is a major problem, and the data collected here indicate a distinct net landward flux of sediments into the marsh interior. Suspended sediment fluxes are much higher than in the Medway estuary (averaging 0.09 g/m(3)/s), and vertical accumulation rates at the salt marsh/mudflat boundary exceed 3 cm/y. Suspended sediment data collected during storm surge conditions indicate that significant in-wash of fine sediments into the marsh interior can occur during (and following) these high-magnitude events. In contrast to the Seine, the Medway is undergoing erosion and general loss of salt marsh areas. Suspended sediment fluxes are of the order of 0.03 g/m(3)/s, and the marsh system here has much lower rates of vertical accretion (sediment accumulation rates are ca. 4 mm/y). Current velocity data for the Medway site indicate higher velocities on the ebb tide than occur on the flood tide, which may be sufficient to remobilise sediments deposited on the previous tide and so force net removal of material from the marsh.

Annual westward propagating anomalies near 26 degrees N and eddy generation south of the Canary Islands: remote sensing (altimeter/SeaWIFS) and in situ measurement

Seasonal changes in altimeter data are derived for the North Atlantic Ocean. Altimeter data are then used to examine annually propagating structure along 26 degree N. By averaging the altimeter data into monthly values or by Fourier analysis, a positive anomaly can be followed from 17 degree W to similar to 50 degree W along similar to 26 degree N. The methods give a westward travel speed of 1 degree of longitude a month and a half-life of one year for the average decaying structure. At similar to 50 degree W 26 degree N, the average structure is about 2.8 years old with an elevation signal of similar to 1 cm, having gravelled similar to 3300 km westward. The mean positive anomaly results from the formation of anticyclonic eddies which are generally formed annually south of the Canary Islands by late summer and which then travel westward near 26 degree N. Individual eddy structure along 26 degree N is examined and related to in situ measurements and anomalies in the annual seasonal concentration cycle of SeaWiFS chlorophyll-a.