Faster parameter estimation using risk-sensitive filters

In this paper, we propose a risk-sensitive approach to parameter estimation for hidden Markov models (HMMs). The parameter estimation approach considered exploits estimation of various functions of the state, based on model estimates. We propose certain practical suboptimal risk-sensitive filters to estimate the various functions of the state during transients, rather than optimal risk-neutral filters as in earlier studies. The estimates are asymptotically optimal, if asymptotically risk neutral, and can give significantly improved transient performance, which is a very desirable objective for certain engineering applications. To demonstrate the improvement in estimation simulation studies are presented that compare parameter estimation based on risk-sensitive filters with estimation based on risk-neutral filters.

On-line estimation of Allan variance parameters

A new online method is presented for estimation of the angular random walk and rate random walk coefficients of IMU (inertial measurement unit) gyros and accelerometers. The online method proposes a state space model and proposes parameter estimators for quantities previously measured from off-line data techniques such as the Allan variance graph. Allan variance graphs have large off-line computational effort and data storage requirements. The technique proposed here requires no data storage and computational effort of O(100) calculations per data sample.

Optimal HMM filtering and decision feedback equalisation for differential encoded transmission systems

In this paper conditional hidden Markov model (HMM) filters and conditional Kalman filters (KF) are coupled together to improve demodulation of differential encoded signals in noisy fading channels. We present an indicator matrix representation for differential encoded signals and the optimal HMM filter for demodulation. The filter requires O(N3) calculations per time iteration, where N is the number of message symbols. Decision feedback equalisation is investigated via coupling the optimal HMM filter for estimating the message, conditioned on estimates of the channel parameters, and a KF for estimating the channel states, conditioned on soft information message estimates. The particular differential encoding scheme examined in this paper is differential phase shift keying. However, the techniques developed can be extended to other forms of differential modulation. The channel model we use allows for multiplicative channel distortions and additive white Gaussian noise. Simulation studies are also presented.

Looming aircraft threats : shape-based passive ranging of aircraft from monocular vision

This paper proposes new techniques for aircraft shape estimation, passive ranging, and shape-adaptive hidden Markov model filtering which are suitable for a monocular vision-based non-cooperative collision avoidance system. Vision-based passive ranging is an important missing technology that could play a significant role in resolving the sense-and-avoid problem in un-manned aerial vehicles (UAVs); a barrier hindering the wider adoption of UAVs for civilian applications. The feasibility of the pro- posed shape estimation, passive ranging and shape-adaptive filtering techniques is evaluated on flight test data.

Foundations for the future : A long-term plan for Australian ecosystem science

Abstract: Australia’s ecosystems are the basis of our current and future prosperity, and our national well-being.A strong and sustainable Australian ecosystem science enterprise is vital for understanding and securing these ecosystems in the face of current and future challenges. This Plan defines the vision and key directions for a national ecosystem science capability that will enable Australia to understand and effectively manage its ecosystems for decades to come.The Plan’s underlying theme is that excellent science supports a range of activities, including public engagement, that enable us to understand and maintain healthy ecosystems.Those healthy ecosystems are the cornerstone of our social and economic well-being.The vision guiding the development of this Plan is that in 20 years’ time the status of Australian ecosystems and how they change will be widely reported and understood, and the prosperity and well-being they provide will be secure. To enable this, Australia’s national ecosystem science capability will be coordinated, collaborative and connected.The Plan is based on an extensive set of collaboratively generated proposals from national town hall meetings that also formthe basis for its implementation. Some directions within the Plan are for the Australian ecosystem science community itself to implement, others will involve the users of ecosystem science and the groups that fund ecosystem science.We identify six equal priority areas for action to achieve our vision: (i) delivering maximum impact for Australia: enhancing relationships between scientists and end-users; (ii) supporting long-termresearch; (iii) enabling ecosystem surveillance; (iv) making the most of data resources; (v) inspiring a generation: empowering the public with knowledge and opportunities; (vi) facilitating coordination, collaboration and leadership. This shared vision will enable us to consolidate our current successes, overcome remaining barriers and establish the foundations to ensure Australian ecosystem science delivers for the future needs of Australia..

Building community capacity for end of life : an investigation of community capacity and its implications for health-promoting palliative care in the Australian Capital Territory

This study identified and examined community-based activities around death, dying and end-of-life care which might reflect a health-promoting palliative care (HPPC) philosophy. This approach is argued to restore community ownership of, and agency in, dying and death through the building of community capacity. However, the enactment of the HPPC approach has not been extensively examined in Australia. Current understandings of community capacity-building relating to end of life are orientated toward service provision. A qualitative interpretive approach was used to engage with local community groups in the Australian Capital Territory with an interest in death, dying and end-of-life care. Data were collected from ten in-depth, semi-structured interviews and thematically analysed. The themes of Practical Support, Respect and Responsiveness and Connection and Empowerment were identified, reflecting community activities initiated in response to the experience of life-limiting illness. Building community capacity offers to restore community agency in end-of-life concerns, while potentially enhancing health service provision through collaborative partnerships. This study indicates an existing community capacity, demonstrated by activities that promote socialisation, peer support and normalisation of death and dying. However, as these activities occur primarily in response to illness, proactive and preparatory interventions in HPPC are a priority.

Short-data recursive HMM parameter estimation for rapid vision-based aircraft heading estimation

Rapid recursive estimation of hidden Markov Model (HMM) parameters is important in applications that place an emphasis on the early availability of reasonable estimates (e.g. for change detection) rather than the provision of longer-term asymptotic properties (such as convergence, convergence rate, and consistency). In the context of vision- based aircraft (image-plane) heading estimation, this paper suggests and evaluates the short-data estimation properties of 3 recursive HMM parameter estimation techniques (a recursive maximum likelihood estimator, an online EM HMM estimator, and a relative entropy based estimator). On both simulated and real data, our studies illustrate the feasibility of rapid recursive heading estimation, but also demonstrate the need for careful step-size design of HMM recursive estimation techniques when these techniques are intended for use in applications where short-data behaviour is paramount.

Assessing rod, cone and melanopsin contributions to human pupil flicker responses

Purpose: To determine the relative contributions of rods, cones and melanopsin to pupil responses in humans using temporal sinusoidal stimulation for light levels spanning the low mesopic to photopic range. Methods: A four-primary Ganzfeld photostimulator controlled flicker stimulations at seven light levels (-2.7 to 2 log cd/m2) and five frequencies (0.5 to 8Hz). Pupil diameter was measured using a high-resolution eyetracker. Three kinds of sinusoidal photoreceptor modulations were generated using silent substitution: 1) rod modulation, 2) cone modulation, and 3) combined rod and cone modulation in phase (Experiment 1) or phase shifted (Experiment 2) from a fixed rod phase. The melanopsin excitation was computed for each condition. A vector sum model was used to estimate the relative contribution of rods, cones and melanopsin to the pupil response. Results: From Experiment 1, the pupil frequency response peaked at 1Hz at two mesopic light levels for the three modulation conditions. Analyzing the rod-cone phase difference for the combined modulations (Experiment 2) identified a V-shaped response amplitude with a minimum between 135° and 180°. The pupil response phases increased as cone modulation phase increased. The pupil amplitude increased with increasing light level for cone and combined in-phase rod and cone modulation, but not for the rod modulation. Conclusions: These results demonstrate that cone- and rod-pathway contributions are more predominant than melanopsin contribution to the phasic pupil response. The combined rod, cone and melanopsin inputs to the phasic state of the pupil light reflex follow linear summation.

Motivational interventions may have greater sustained impact if they trained imagery-based self-management

McCambridge & Rollnick [1] argue that increased benefits from brief motivational interventions (MIs) for alcohol abuse may be obtained if they addressed patients’ con- cerns more directly, especially in severe dependence and primary care. We agree, but take the idea a step further. Recent research on comorbidity has illustrated the power of simultaneously addressing multiple issues in an integrated manner, especially when these changes have synergistic effects (as typically occurs with psycho- sis and substance use [2]). Integrated MI for comorbidity can even be used productively in a single-session format [3]. This idea may have wider application. Recent work in remote Indigenous Australian communities has highlighted the benefits of a broad-ranging discussion of key relationships, activities and resources that confer strength, as well as aspects that worry them or cause dissatisfaction [4]. If excessive drinking is present, its impact on other life areas is reviewed, as in standard MI. However, it is considered alongside other highly valued goals. While the approach has demonstrated effects on both alcohol use and mental health [5], its impact is restricted only by the range of goals that are selected...

The Craving Experience Questionnaire : a brief, theory-based measure of consummatory desire and craving

Background and Aims Research into craving is hampered by lack of theoretical specification and a plethora of substance-specific measures. This study aimed to develop a generic measure of craving based on elaborated intrusion (EI) theory. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) examined whether a generic measure replicated the three-factor structure of the Alcohol Craving Experience (ACE) scale over different consummatory targets and time-frames. Design Twelve studies were pooled for CFA. Targets included alcohol, cigarettes, chocolate and food. Focal periods varied from the present moment to the previous week. Separate analyses were conducted for strength and frequency forms. Setting Nine studies included university students, with single studies drawn from an internet survey, a community sample of smokers and alcohol-dependent out-patients. Participants A heterogeneous sample of 1230 participants. Measurements Adaptations of the ACE questionnaire. Findings Both craving strength [comparative fit indices (CFI = 0.974; root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.039, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.035–0.044] and frequency (CFI = 0.971, RMSEA = 0.049, 95% CI = 0.044–0.055) gave an acceptable three-factor solution across desired targets that mapped onto the structure of the original ACE (intensity, imagery, intrusiveness), after removing an item, re-allocating another and taking intercorrelated error terms into account. Similar structures were obtained across time-frames and targets. Preliminary validity data on the resulting 10-item Craving Experience Questionnaire (CEQ) for cigarettes and alcohol were strong. Conclusions The Craving Experience Questionnaire (CEQ) is a brief, conceptually grounded and psychometrically sound measure of desires. It demonstrates a consistent factor structure across a range of consummatory targets in both laboratory and clinical contexts.

Substance use disorders

Substance use disorders involve alcohol and a range of other legal and illicit drugs, and are characterised by a preoccupation with or craving for the substance, a greater priority to substance use than other goals, and/or a difficulty controlling consumption. Use of the substance may continue despite negative impacts on other activities, roles, relationships, and physical and mental health. Increased physical tolerance to the substance and withdrawal symptoms may also occur. Broad impacts on social and cognitive functioning and on physical and mental health emerge with increasing problem severity. Diffuse cognitive impairment may persist for up to 12 months post-detoxification in alcohol dependence. Psychological comorbidity is common, particularly mood and anxiety disorders. A quarter of all Australians will have a substance use disorder in their lifetime. One in five will consume alcohol at a level that puts them at risk of harm from an alcohol-related disease or injury over their lifetime. Australians aged 18 to 29 years are at higher risk than other age groups.

An acute cough-specific quality of life questionnaire for children: Development and validation

Background Patient-relevant outcome measures are essential for high-quality clinical research, and quality-of-life (QoL) tools are the current standard. Currently, there is no validated children's acute cough-specific QoL questionnaire. Objective The objective of this study was to develop and validate the Parent-proxy Children's Acute Cough-specific QoL Questionnaire (PAC-QoL). Methods Using focus groups, a 48-item PAC-QoL questionnaire was developed and later reduced to 16 items by using the clinical impact method. Parents of children with a current acute cough (<2 weeks) at enrollment completed 2 validated cough score measures, the preliminary 48-item PAC-QoL, and 3 other questionnaires (the State Trait Anxiety Inventory [STAI], the Short-Form 8-item 24-hour recall Health Survey [SF-8], and the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress 21-item Scale [DASS21]). All measures were repeated on days 3 and 14. Results The median age of the 155 children enrolled was 2.3 years (interquartile range, 1.3-4.6). Median cough duration at enrollment was 3 days (interquartile range, 2-5). The reduced 16-item scale had high internal consistency (Cronbach α = 0.95). Evidence for repeatability and criterion validity was shown by significant correlations between the domains and total PAC-QoL scores and the SF-8 (r = −0.36 and −0.51), STAI (r = −0.27 and −0.39), and DASS21 (r = −0.32 and −0.41) scales on days 0 and 3, respectively. The final PAC-QoL questionnaire was sensitive to change over time, with changes significantly relating to changes in cough score measures (P < .001). Conclusion The 16-item PAC-QoL is a reliable and valid outcome measure that assesses QoL related to childhood acute cough at a given time point and reflects changes in acute cough-specific QoL over time.

Antimicrobial stewardship activities : a survey of Queensland hospitals

Objective: In 2011, the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care (ACSQHC) recommended that all hospitals in Australia must have an Antimicrobial Stewardship (AMS) program by 2013. Nevertheless, little is known about current AMS activities. This study aimed to determine the AMS activities currently undertaken, and to identify gaps, barriers to implementation and opportunities for improvement in Queensland hospitals. Methods: The AMS activities of 26 facilities from 15 hospital and health services in Queensland were surveyed during June 2012 to address strategies for effective AMS: implementing clinical guidelines, formulary restriction, reviewing antimicrobial prescribing, auditing antimicrobial use and selective reporting of susceptibility results. Results: The response rate was 62%. Nineteen percent had an AMS team (a dedicated multidisciplinary team consisting of a medically trained staff member and a pharmacist). All facilities had access to an electronic version of Therapeutic Guidelines: Antibiotic, with a further 50% developing local guidelines for antimicrobials. One-third of facilities had additional restrictions. Eighty-eight percent had advice for restricted antimicrobials from in-house infectious disease physicians or clinical microbiologists. Antimicrobials were monitored with feedback given to prescribers at point of care by 76% of facilities. Deficiencies reported as barriers to establishing AMS programs included: pharmacy resources, financial support by hospital management, and training and education in antimicrobial use. Conclusions: Several areas for improvement were identified: reviewing antimicrobial prescribing with feedback to the prescriber, auditing, and training and education in antimicrobial use. There also appears to be a lack of resources to support AMS programs in some facilities. What is known about the topic? The ACSQHC has recommended that all hospitals implement an AMS program by 2013 as a requirement of Standard 3 (Preventing and Controlling Healthcare-Associated Infections) of the National Safety and Quality Health Service Standards. The intent of AMS is to ensure appropriate prescribing of antimicrobials as part of the broader systems within a health service organisation to prevent and manage healthcare-associated infections, and improve patient safety and quality of care. This criterion also aligns closely with Standard 4: Medication Safety. Despite this recommendation, little is known about what AMS activities are undertaken in these facilities and what additional resources would be required in order to meet these national standards. What does the paper add? This is the first survey that has been conducted of public hospital and health services in Queensland, a large decentralised state in Australia. This paper describes what AMS activities are currently being undertaken, identifies practice gaps, barriers to implementation and opportunities for improvement in Queensland hospitals. What are the implications for practitioners? Several areas for improvement such as reviewing antimicrobial prescribing with feedback to the prescriber, auditing, and training and education in antimicrobial use have been identified. In addition, there appears to be a lack of resources to support AMS programs in some facilities.

Delivering crushed tablets using thickened fluids : is drug diffusion into gastric fluids restricted?

Solid medications are often crushed and mixed with food or thickened water to aid drug delivery for those who cannot or prefer not to swallow whole tablets or capsules. Dysphagic patients have the added problem of being unable to safely swallow thin fluids so water thickened with polysaccharides is used to deliver crushed medications and ensure safe swallowing. It is postulated that these polysaccharide systems may restrict drug release by reducing the diffusion of the drug into gastric fluids. METHODS By using a vertical diffusion cell separated with a synthetic membrane, the diffusion of a model drug (atenolol) was studied from a donor system containing the drug dispersed into thickened water with xanthan gum (concentration range from 0.005%-2.2%) into a receptor system containing simulated gastric fluid (SGF) at 37°C. The amount of drug transferred was measured over 8 hours and diffusion coefficients estimated using the Higuchi model approach. RESULTS Atenolol diffusion decreased with increasing xanthan gum concentration up to 1.0%, above which diffusion remained around 300 μ2s-1. The rheological measurements captured the influence of the structure and conformation of the polysaccharide in water on the movement and availability of the drug in SGF. DISCUSSION Dose form administration for dysphagic patients’ needs special attention from general practitioners, pharmacist and patients. Improving drug release of crushed tablets from thickening agents requires a reduction in the diffusion pathway (e.g. by decreasing drop size radius). This approach could make the drug available in SGF in a short time without compromising the mechanical aspects of thickening agents that guarantee safe swallowing.