Desenvolvimento de modelo auto-regressivo para previsão em pronto-atendimento

The 1988 constitution makes an life is a supreme good when increased health as the fundamental condition requiring that all ill patient has the right to be treated in a public hospital (CF, art. 196). In this sense, the goal of this work is to generate a weekly forecast of hospital care by means of an advanced prediction model. It is expected that the model of self-regressivas seasonal moving averages SARIMA generate reliable and adherent to issue forecasts analyzed, thus enabling better resource allocation and more efficient hospital management

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Estudo da viabilidade de implantação do INOVAR-AUTO utilizando o método do fluxo de caixa sob risco

The automobile industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic environment. The industry moves a huge chain that encompasses manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, repair shops, tire stores, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Because of this importance in the current economic environment in Brazil, the federal government, through Law No. 12715 of 17 December 2012 established a Program for the Promotion of Innovation and Densification in the Productive Chain of Motor Vehicles called INOVAR-AUTO in order to support technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. The specific purpose of this study, a simulation for discussion of the viability of the program implementation using the Monte Carlo Simulation combined with the Cash-Flow-at-Risk was performed. To this end, an exploratory and documentary literature on the subject was held as well as a case study in a automobile company of Japanese origin

Processos de auto-regulação no curso de vida: controle primário e controle secundário

Este artigo discute conceitos relevantes à perspectiva do curso de vida, porém pouco difundidos no Brasil: controle primário e controle secundário. O primeiro se refere aos esforços que o indivíduo empreende para adaptar o ambiente às suas necessidades; o segundo, para se adaptar ao ambiente. Apresenta-se a formulação original dos conceitos como modelo de dois processos de controle, em oposição a modelos de processo único, como o do desamparo aprendido. Em seguida, discute-se revisão conceitual que trouxe modificação e ampliação para estes construtos, concebendo-os em um modelo bidimensional que articula controle primário e secundário com os conceitos de seleção e compensação. Nesse processo, apresentam-se contribuições no intuito de estimular a reflexão e expandir a discussão teórico-conceitual que envolve estes construtos.

Desenvolvimento de modelo auto-regressivo para previsão em pronto-atendimento

The 1988 constitution makes an life is a supreme good when increased health as the fundamental condition requiring that all ill patient has the right to be treated in a public hospital (CF, art. 196). In this sense, the goal of this work is to generate a weekly forecast of hospital care by means of an advanced prediction model. It is expected that the model of self-regressivas seasonal moving averages SARIMA generate reliable and adherent to issue forecasts analyzed, thus enabling better resource allocation and more efficient hospital management

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Estudo da viabilidade de implantação do INOVAR-AUTO utilizando o método do fluxo de caixa sob risco

The automobile industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic environment. The industry moves a huge chain that encompasses manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, repair shops, tire stores, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Because of this importance in the current economic environment in Brazil, the federal government, through Law No. 12715 of 17 December 2012 established a Program for the Promotion of Innovation and Densification in the Productive Chain of Motor Vehicles called INOVAR-AUTO in order to support technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. The specific purpose of this study, a simulation for discussion of the viability of the program implementation using the Monte Carlo Simulation combined with the Cash-Flow-at-Risk was performed. To this end, an exploratory and documentary literature on the subject was held as well as a case study in a automobile company of Japanese origin

A Simpler and More Accurate AUTO-HDS Framework for Clustering and Visualization of Biological Data

In [1], the authors proposed a framework for automated clustering and visualization of biological data sets named AUTO-HDS. This letter is intended to complement that framework by showing that it is possible to get rid of a user-defined parameter in a way that the clustering stage can be implemented more accurately while having reduced computational complexity

A 2400-year record of trace metal loading in lake sediments of Lagoa Vermelha, southeastern Brazil

Sediments of the Lagoa Vermelha (Red Lake), situated in the Ribeira Valley, southeastern Brazil, are made of a homogeneous, organic-rich, black clay with no visible sedimentary structures. The inorganic geochemical record (Al, As, Ba, Br, Co,Cs, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Rb, Sc, Sb, V, Zn, Hg and Pb) of the lake sediments was analyzed in a core spanning 2430 years. The largest temporal changes in trace metal contents occurred approximately within the last 180 years. Recent sediments were found to be enriched in Pb, Zn, Hg, Ni, Mn, Br and Sb (more than 2-fold increase with respect to the "natural background level"). The enhanced accumulation of Br, Sb, and Mn was attributed to biogeochemical processes and diagenesis. On the other hand, the anomalous concentrations of Pb, Zn, Hg and Ni were attributed to pollution. As Lagoa Vermelha is located in a relatively pristine area, far removed from direct contamination sources, the increased metal contents of surface sediments most likely resulted from atmospheric fallout. Stable Pb isotopes provided additional evidence for anthropogenic contamination. The shift of Pb-206/Pb-207 ratios toward decreasing values in the increasingly younger sediments is consistent with an increasing contribution of airborne anthropogenic lead. In the uppermost sediments (0-10 cm), the lowest values of the Pb-206/Pb-207 ratios may reflect the influence of the less radiogenic Pb from the Ribeira Valley District ores (Pb-206/Pb-207 between 1.04 and 1.10), emitted during the last 50 years. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resonance frequency analysis of overdenture retainer implants with immediate loading

Objective: To evaluate 16 patients of both sexes with lower overdenture and upper complete dentures, by analysing the resonance frequency of the initial and late stability of implants used to retain the overdenture under immediate loading. Background: Oral rehabilitation treatment with complete dentures using implants has been increasingly more common among the specialists in the oral rehabilitation area. This is an alternative for obtaining retention and stability in treatments involving conventional complete dentures, where two implants are enough to retain the overdenture satisfactorily. Materials and methods: The Osstell (TM) Mentor device was used for the analysis in the initial period (primary stability), 3 and 15 months after the installation of the lower overdenture (secondary stability). The statistical analysis was performed with the repeated measures model (p < 0.01). Results: The implant stability quotients were observed to increase after 15 months of the rehabilitating treatment. Conclusion: The use of overdentures over two lower implants should become the treatment of choice for individuals who have a fully edentulous mandible.

Influence of different resistance exercise loading schemes on mechanical power output in work to rest ratio - equated and - nonequated conditions

Paulo CA, Roschel H, Ugrinowitsch C, Kobal R and Tricoli V. Influence of different resistance exercise loading schemes on mechanical power output in work to rest ratio-equated and -nonequated conditions. J Strength Cond Res 26(5): 1308-1312, 2012-It is well known that most sports are characterized by the performance of intermittent high-intensity actions, requiring high muscle power production within different intervals. In fact, the manipulation of the exercise to rest ratio in muscle power training programs may constitute an interesting strategy when considering the specific performance demand of a given sport modality. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of different schemes of rest intervals and number of repetitions per set on muscle power production in the squat exercise between exercise to rest ratio-equated and -nonequated conditions. Nineteen young males (age: 25.7 +/- 4.4 years; weight: 81.3 +/- 13.7 kg; height: 178.1 +/- 5.5 cm) were randomly submitted to 3 different resistance exercise loading schemes, as follows: short-set short-interval condition (SSSI; 12 sets of 3 repetitions with a 27.3-second interval between sets); short-set long-interval condition (SSLI; 12 sets of 3 repetitions with a 60-second interval between sets); long-set long-interval (LSLI; 6 sets of 6 repetitions with a 60-second rest interval between sets). The main finding of the present study is that the lower exercise to rest ratio protocol (SSLI) resulted in greater average power production (601.88 +/- 142.48 W) when compared with both SSSI and LSLI (581.86 +/- 113.18 W; 578 +/- 138.78 W, respectively). Additionally, both the exercise to rest ratio-equated conditions presented similar performance and metabolic results. In summary, these findings suggest that shorter rest intervals may fully restore the individual's ability to produce muscle power if a smaller exercise volume per set is performed and that lower exercise to rest ratio protocols result in greater average power production when compared with higher ratio ones.