Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric speci cation. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.

Discrimination of cortical laminae using MEG.

Typically MEG source reconstruction is used to estimate the distribution of current flow on a single anatomically derived cortical surface model. In this study we use two such models representing superficial and deep cortical laminae. We establish how well we can discriminate between these two different cortical layer models based on the same MEG data in the presence of different levels of co-registration noise, Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) and cortical patch size. We demonstrate that it is possible to make a distinction between superficial and deep cortical laminae for levels of co-registration noise of less than 2mm translation and 2° rotation at SNR>11dB. We also show that an incorrect estimate of cortical patch size will tend to bias layer estimates. We then use a 3D printed head-cast (Troebinger et al., 2014) to achieve comparable levels of co-registration noise, in an auditory evoked response paradigm, and show that it is possible to discriminate between these cortical layer models in real data.

Brittle cornea syndrome: recognition, molecular diagnosis and management.

Brittle cornea syndrome (BCS) is an autosomal recessive disorder characterised by extreme corneal thinning and fragility. Corneal rupture can therefore occur either spontaneously or following minimal trauma in affected patients. Two genes, ZNF469 and PRDM5, have now been identified, in which causative pathogenic mutations collectively account for the condition in nearly all patients with BCS ascertained to date. Therefore, effective molecular diagnosis is now available for affected patients, and those at risk of being heterozygous carriers for BCS. We have previously identified mutations in ZNF469 in 14 families (in addition to 6 reported by others in the literature), and in PRDM5 in 8 families (with 1 further family now published by others). Clinical features include extreme corneal thinning with rupture, high myopia, blue sclerae, deafness of mixed aetiology with hypercompliant tympanic membranes, and variable skeletal manifestations. Corneal rupture may be the presenting feature of BCS, and it is possible that this may be incorrectly attributed to non-accidental injury. Mainstays of management include the prevention of ocular rupture by provision of protective polycarbonate spectacles, careful monitoring of visual and auditory function, and assessment for skeletal complications such as developmental dysplasia of the hip. Effective management depends upon appropriate identification of affected individuals, which may be challenging given the phenotypic overlap of BCS with other connective tissue disorders.

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Developing a predictive understanding of subsurface flow and transport is complicated by the disparity of scales across which controlling hydrological properties and processes span. Conventional techniques for characterizing hydrogeological properties (such as pumping, slug, and flowmeter tests) typically rely on borehole access to the subsurface. Because their spatial extent is commonly limited to the vicinity near the wellbores, these methods often cannot provide sufficient information to describe key controls on subsurface flow and transport. The field of hydrogeophysics has evolved in recent years to explore the potential that geophysical methods hold for improving the quantification of subsurface properties and processes relevant for hydrological investigations. This chapter is intended to familiarize hydrogeologists and water-resource professionals with the state of the art as well as existing challenges associated with hydrogeophysics. We provide a review of the key components of hydrogeophysical studies, which include: geophysical methods commonly used for shallow subsurface characterization; petrophysical relationships used to link the geophysical properties to hydrological properties and state variables; and estimation or inversion methods used to integrate hydrological and geophysical measurements in a consistent manner. We demonstrate the use of these different geophysical methods, petrophysical relationships, and estimation approaches through several field-scale case studies. Among other applications, the case studies illustrate the use of hydrogeophysical approaches to quantify subsurface architecture that influence flow (such as hydrostratigraphy and preferential pathways); delineate anomalous subsurface fluid bodies (such as contaminant plumes); monitor hydrological processes (such as infiltration, freshwater-seawater interface dynamics, and flow through fractures); and estimate hydrological properties (such as hydraulic conductivity) and state variables (such as water content). The case studies have been chosen to illustrate how hydrogeophysical approaches can yield insights about complex subsurface hydrological processes, provide input that improves flow and transport predictions, and provide quantitative information over field-relevant spatial scales. The chapter concludes by describing existing hydrogeophysical challenges and associated research needs. In particular, we identify the area of quantitative watershed hydrogeophysics as a frontier area, where significant effort is required to advance the estimation of hydrological properties and processes (and their uncertainties) over spatial scales relevant to the management of water resources and contaminants.

Social isolation causers mortality by disrupting energy homeostrasis in ants

Social deprivation can have negative effects on the lives of social animals, including humans, yet little is known about the mechanisms by which social withdrawal affects animal health. Here we show that in the carpenter ant Camponotus fellah, socially isolated workers have a greatly reduced life span relative to ants kept in groups of ten individuals. By using a new tracking system, we found that social isolation resulted in important behavioral changes and greatly increased locomotor activity. The higher activity of single ants and their increased propensity to leave the nest to move along the walls suggested that the increased mortality of isolated ants might stem from an imbalance of energy income and expenditure. This view was supported by the finding that while isolated ants ingested the same amount of food as grouped ants, they retained food in the crop, hence preventing its use as an energy source. Moreover, the difference in life span between single and grouped individuals vanished when ants were not fed. This study thus underlines the role of social interactions as key regulators of energy balance, which ultimately affects aging and health in a highly social organism.

Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the Bayesian Lasso is gaining increasing popularity as an effective tool for achieving such shrinkage. In this paper, we develop econometric methods for using the Bayesian Lasso with time-varying parameter models. Our approach allows for the coefficient on each predictor to be: i) time varying, ii) constant over time or iii) shrunk to zero. The econometric methodology decides automatically which category each coefficient belongs in. Our empirical results indicate the benefits of such an approach.

Dirigent domain-containing protein is part of the machinery required for formation of the lignin-based Casparian strip in the root.

The endodermis acts as a "second skin" in plant roots by providing the cellular control necessary for the selective entry of water and solutes into the vascular system. To enable such control, Casparian strips span the cell wall of adjacent endodermal cells to form a tight junction that blocks extracellular diffusion across the endodermis. This junction is composed of lignin that is polymerized by oxidative coupling of monolignols through the action of a NADPH oxidase and peroxidases. Casparian strip domain proteins (CASPs) correctly position this biosynthetic machinery by forming a protein scaffold in the plasma membrane at the site where the Casparian strip forms. Here, we show that the dirigent-domain containing protein, enhanced suberin1 (ESB1), is part of this machinery, playing an essential role in the correct formation of Casparian strips. ESB1 is localized to Casparian strips in a CASP-dependent manner, and in the absence of ESB1, disordered and defective Casparian strips are formed. In addition, loss of ESB1 disrupts the localization of the CASP1 protein at the casparian strip domain, suggesting a reciprocal requirement for both ESB1 and CASPs in forming the casparian strip domain.

The antecedents and innovation consequences of organizational search: empirical evidence for Spain

This paper examines the antecedents and innovation consequences of the methods firms adopt in organizing their search strategies. From a theoretical perspective, organizational search is described using a typology that shows how firms implement exploration and exploitation search activities that span their organizational boundaries. This typology includes three models of implementation: ambidextrous, specialized, and diversified implementation. From an empirical perspective, the paper examines the performance consequences when applying these models, and compares their capacity to produce complementarities. Additionally, since firms' choices in matters of organizational search are viewed as endogenous variables, the paper examines the drivers affecting them and identifies the importance of firms' absorptive capacity and diversified technological opportunities in determining these choices. The empirical design of the paper draws on new data for manufacturing firms in Spain, surveyed between 2003 and 2006.

Learning-induced plasticity in human audition: Objects, time, and space.

The human auditory system is comprised of specialized but interacting anatomic and functional pathways encoding object, spatial, and temporal information. We review how learning-induced plasticity manifests along these pathways and to what extent there are common mechanisms subserving such plasticity. A first series of experiments establishes a temporal hierarchy along which sounds of objects are discriminated along basic to fine-grained categorical boundaries and learned representations. A widespread network of temporal and (pre)frontal brain regions contributes to object discrimination via recursive processing. Learning-induced plasticity typically manifested as repetition suppression within a common set of brain regions. A second series considered how the temporal sequence of sound sources is represented. We show that lateralized responsiveness during the initial encoding phase of pairs of auditory spatial stimuli is critical for their accurate ordered perception. Finally, we consider how spatial representations are formed and modified through training-induced learning. A population-based model of spatial processing is supported wherein temporal and parietal structures interact in the encoding of relative and absolute spatial information over the initial ∼300ms post-stimulus onset. Collectively, these data provide insights into the functional organization of human audition and open directions for new developments in targeted diagnostic and neurorehabilitation strategies.

Thérapie cognitive et comportementale pour les hallucinations auditives résistantes au traitement neuroleptique

The aim of this study is to test the feasibility and the efficacy of a cognitive and behavior therapy manual for auditory hallucinations with persons suffering from schizophrenia in a French-speaking environment and under natural clinical conditions. Eight patients met ICD-10 criteria for paranoid schizophrenia, 2 for hebephrenic schizophrenia and 1 for schizoaffective disorder. All were hearing voices daily. Patients followed the intervention for 3 to 6 months according to their individual rhythms. Participants filled up questionnaires at pre-test, post-test and three months follow-up. The instruments were the Belief About Voice Questionnaire--Revised and two seven points scales about frequency of hallucinations and attribution of the source of the voices. Results show a decrease of voices' frequency and improvement in attributing the voices rather to an internal than to an external source. Malevolent or benevolent beliefs about voices are significantly decreased at follow-up as well as efforts at coping with hallucinations. Results should be interpreted with caution because of the small number of subjects. The sample may not be representative of patients with persistent symptoms since there is an over representation of patients with benevolent voices and an under representation of patients with substance misuse

Radio frequency identification (RFID) of dentures in long-term care facilities.

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM: The difficulty of identifying the ownership of lost dentures when found is a common and expensive problem in long term care facilities (LTCFs) and hospitals. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability of using radiofrequency identification (RFID) in the identification of dentures for LTCF residents after 3 and 6 months. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Thirty-eight residents of 2 LTCFs in Switzerland agreed to participate after providing informed consent. The tag was programmed with the family and first names of the participants and then inserted in the dentures. After placement of the tag, the information was read. A second and third assessment to review the functioning of the tag occurred at 3 and 6 months, and defective tags (if present) were reported and replaced. The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics. RESULTS: At the 3-month assessment of 34 residents (63 tags) 1 tag was unreadable and 62 tags (98.2%) were operational. At 6 months, the tags of 27 of the enrolled residents (50 tags) were available for review. No examined tag was defective at this time period. CONCLUSIONS: Within the limits of this study (number of patients, 6-month time span) RFID appears to be a reliable method of tracking and identifying dentures, with only 1 of 65 devices being unreadable at 3 months and 100% of 50 initially placed tags being readable at the end of the trial.

The behavioral relevance and top-down susceptibility of early, low level multisensory interactions in humans

Abstract (English)General backgroundMultisensory stimuli are easier to recognize, can improve learning and a processed faster compared to unisensory ones. As such, the ability an organism has to extract and synthesize relevant sensory inputs across multiple sensory modalities shapes his perception of and interaction with the environment. A major question in the scientific field is how the brain extracts and fuses relevant information to create a unified perceptual representation (but also how it segregates unrelated information). This fusion between the senses has been termed "multisensory integration", a notion that derives from seminal animal single-cell studies performed in the superior colliculus, a subcortical structure shown to create a multisensory output differing from the sum of its unisensory inputs. At the cortical level, integration of multisensory information is traditionally deferred to higher classical associative cortical regions within the frontal, temporal and parietal lobes, after extensive processing within the sensory-specific and segregated pathways. However, many anatomical, electrophysiological and neuroimaging findings now speak for multisensory convergence and interactions as a distributed process beginning much earlier than previously appreciated and within the initial stages of sensory processing.The work presented in this thesis is aimed at studying the neural basis and mechanisms of how the human brain combines sensory information between the senses of hearing and touch. Early latency non-linear auditory-somatosensory neural response interactions have been repeatedly observed in humans and non-human primates. Whether these early, low-level interactions are directly influencing behavioral outcomes remains an open question as they have been observed under diverse experimental circumstances such as anesthesia, passive stimulation, as well as speeded reaction time tasks. Under laboratory settings, it has been demonstrated that simple reaction times to auditory-somatosensory stimuli are facilitated over their unisensory counterparts both when delivered to the same spatial location or not, suggesting that audi- tory-somatosensory integration must occur in cerebral regions with large-scale spatial representations. However experiments that required the spatial processing of the stimuli have observed effects limited to spatially aligned conditions or varying depending on which body part was stimulated. Whether those divergences stem from task requirements and/or the need for spatial processing has not been firmly established.Hypotheses and experimental resultsIn a first study, we hypothesized that auditory-somatosensory early non-linear multisensory neural response interactions are relevant to behavior. Performing a median split according to reaction time of a subset of behavioral and electroencephalographic data, we found that the earliest non-linear multisensory interactions measured within the EEG signal (i.e. between 40-83ms post-stimulus onset) were specific to fast reaction times indicating a direct correlation of early neural response interactions and behavior.In a second study, we hypothesized that the relevance of spatial information for task performance has an impact on behavioral measures of auditory-somatosensory integration. Across two psychophysical experiments we show that facilitated detection occurs even when attending to spatial information, with no modulation according to spatial alignment of the stimuli. On the other hand, discrimination performance with probes, quantified using sensitivity (d'), is impaired following multisensory trials in general and significantly more so following misaligned multisensory trials.In a third study, we hypothesized that behavioral improvements might vary depending which body part is stimulated. Preliminary results suggest a possible dissociation between behavioral improvements andERPs. RTs to multisensory stimuli were modulated by space only in the case when somatosensory stimuli were delivered to the neck whereas multisensory ERPs were modulated by spatial alignment for both types of somatosensory stimuli.ConclusionThis thesis provides insight into the functional role played by early, low-level multisensory interac-tions. Combining psychophysics and electrical neuroimaging techniques we demonstrate the behavioral re-levance of early and low-level interactions in the normal human system. Moreover, we show that these early interactions are hermetic to top-down influences on spatial processing suggesting their occurrence within cerebral regions having access to large-scale spatial representations. We finally highlight specific interactions between auditory space and somatosensory stimulation on different body parts. Gaining an in-depth understanding of how multisensory integration normally operates is of central importance as it will ultimately permit us to consider how the impaired brain could benefit from rehabilitation with multisensory stimula-Abstract (French)Background théoriqueDes stimuli multisensoriels sont plus faciles à reconnaître, peuvent améliorer l'apprentissage et sont traités plus rapidement comparé à des stimuli unisensoriels. Ainsi, la capacité qu'un organisme possède à extraire et à synthétiser avec ses différentes modalités sensorielles des inputs sensoriels pertinents, façonne sa perception et son interaction avec l'environnement. Une question majeure dans le domaine scientifique est comment le cerveau parvient à extraire et à fusionner des stimuli pour créer une représentation percep- tuelle cohérente (mais aussi comment il isole les stimuli sans rapport). Cette fusion entre les sens est appelée "intégration multisensorielle", une notion qui provient de travaux effectués dans le colliculus supérieur chez l'animal, une structure sous-corticale possédant des neurones produisant une sortie multisensorielle différant de la somme des entrées unisensorielles. Traditionnellement, l'intégration d'informations multisen- sorielles au niveau cortical est considérée comme se produisant tardivement dans les aires associatives supérieures dans les lobes frontaux, temporaux et pariétaux, suite à un traitement extensif au sein de régions unisensorielles primaires. Cependant, plusieurs découvertes anatomiques, électrophysiologiques et de neuroimageries remettent en question ce postulat, suggérant l'existence d'une convergence et d'interactions multisensorielles précoces.Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse sont destinés à mieux comprendre les bases neuronales et les mécanismes impliqués dans la combinaison d'informations sensorielles entre les sens de l'audition et du toucher chez l'homme. Des interactions neuronales non-linéaires précoces audio-somatosensorielles ont été observées à maintes reprises chez l'homme et le singe dans des circonstances aussi variées que sous anes- thésie, avec stimulation passive, et lors de tâches nécessitant un comportement (une détection simple de stimuli, par exemple). Ainsi, le rôle fonctionnel joué par ces interactions à une étape du traitement de l'information si précoce demeure une question ouverte. Il a également été démontré que les temps de réaction en réponse à des stimuli audio-somatosensoriels sont facilités par rapport à leurs homologues unisensoriels indépendamment de leur position spatiale. Ce résultat suggère que l'intégration audio- somatosensorielle se produit dans des régions cérébrales possédant des représentations spatiales à large échelle. Cependant, des expériences qui ont exigé un traitement spatial des stimuli ont produits des effets limités à des conditions où les stimuli multisensoriels étaient, alignés dans l'espace ou encore comme pouvant varier selon la partie de corps stimulée. Il n'a pas été établi à ce jour si ces divergences pourraient être dues aux contraintes liées à la tâche et/ou à la nécessité d'un traitement de l'information spatiale.Hypothèse et résultats expérimentauxDans une première étude, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que les interactions audio- somatosensorielles précoces sont pertinentes pour le comportement. En effectuant un partage des temps de réaction par rapport à la médiane d'un sous-ensemble de données comportementales et électroencépha- lographiques, nous avons constaté que les interactions multisensorielles qui se produisent à des latences précoces (entre 40-83ms) sont spécifique aux temps de réaction rapides indiquant une corrélation directe entre ces interactions neuronales précoces et le comportement.Dans une deuxième étude, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que si l'information spatiale devient perti-nente pour la tâche, elle pourrait exercer une influence sur des mesures comportementales de l'intégration audio-somatosensorielles. Dans deux expériences psychophysiques, nous montrons que même si les participants prêtent attention à l'information spatiale, une facilitation de la détection se produit et ce toujours indépendamment de la configuration spatiale des stimuli. Cependant, la performance de discrimination, quantifiée à l'aide d'un index de sensibilité (d') est altérée suite aux essais multisensoriels en général et de manière plus significative pour les essais multisensoriels non-alignés dans l'espace.Dans une troisième étude, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que des améliorations comportementales pourraient différer selon la partie du corps qui est stimulée (la main vs. la nuque). Des résultats préliminaires suggèrent une dissociation possible entre une facilitation comportementale et les potentiels évoqués. Les temps de réactions étaient influencés par la configuration spatiale uniquement dans le cas ou les stimuli somatosensoriels étaient sur la nuque alors que les potentiels évoqués étaient modulés par l'alignement spatial pour les deux types de stimuli somatosensorielles.ConclusionCette thèse apporte des éléments nouveaux concernant le rôle fonctionnel joué par les interactions multisensorielles précoces de bas niveau. En combinant la psychophysique et la neuroimagerie électrique, nous démontrons la pertinence comportementale des ces interactions dans le système humain normal. Par ailleurs, nous montrons que ces interactions précoces sont hermétiques aux influences dites «top-down» sur le traitement spatial suggérant leur occurrence dans des régions cérébrales ayant accès à des représentations spatiales de grande échelle. Nous soulignons enfin des interactions spécifiques entre l'espace auditif et la stimulation somatosensorielle sur différentes parties du corps. Approfondir la connaissance concernant les bases neuronales et les mécanismes impliqués dans l'intégration multisensorielle dans le système normale est d'une importance centrale car elle permettra d'examiner et de mieux comprendre comment le cerveau déficient pourrait bénéficier d'une réhabilitation avec la stimulation multisensorielle.

El canvi climàtic a les Terres de l'Ebre

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. En aquest treball s’estudia sobretot l’augment de les temperatures a les Terres de l’Ebre. Amb les temperatures facilitades per l’Observatori de l’Ebre s’han pogut realitzar prediccions de temperatures mitjanes, màximes i mínimes, per a saber les temperatures d’aquí uns 100 anys. Un cop fetes les prediccions, s’han consultat les condicions climàtiques de les plantes més característiques de la zona amb els científics de l’Institut de recerca i tecnologia agroalimentària i així poder fer una predicció i veure fins quan podríem gaudir de les nostres plantes, o fins quan la seva producció seria fins com la d’avui en dia. A més a més, un altre tema que afecta sobretot aquestes terres és la pujada del nivell del mar, ja que tenim una costa molt vulnerable a aquesta situació. Per aquest fet hi trobareu mapes de la zona amb inundacions per cada metre que pugés el nivell del mar.

Fear assessment in pigs exposed to a novel object test

The experiment aimed to study approach and locomotive behaviour as indicators of fear in a novel object test carried out in pigs. Thirty post-weaning (30 kg) and 30 finishing (90 kg) pigs were exposed to visual, auditory and olfactory novel stimuli during 2 different experiments. The facilities consisted of a test pen in which a trough was located. The trough contained chopped apples. Once the animals were trained to enter the test pen individually they were subjected to 3 different fear stimuli. These stimuli were applied in the test pen and next to the trough. The variables studied were feeding behaviour, approach behaviour (the distance and position of the animal with respect to the trough) and locomotive behaviour (general activity, reluctance to move, turning back and retreat attempts). Two groups were studied: saline and midazolam treated group. Twenty minutes before the start of the sessions, 15 post-weaning and finishing pigs received an intramuscular injection of 0.20 and 0.15 mg/kg, respectively, midazolam (Dormicum1). The saline pigs (15 animals per group) were injected with saline. The administration of midazolam increased the feeding behaviour and approaching behaviour, and reduced the locomotive behaviour. In front of the visual and olfactory stimuli post-weaning pigs showed a higher general activity than finishing pigs, but the contrary was found when the auditory stimulus was applied. The olfactory stimulus was more related to the turning back behaviour, whereas the visual stimulus was more related to retreat attempts. Although it could be concluded that reluctant to move was the most common response to the different fear stimuli applied in our study regardless of the age of animals, the combination of reluctant to move and turning back would be a good criterion to assess fear in domestic pigs. The use of midazolam as anxiolytic for studies of fear in commercial conditions in pigs is recommended.

Looming signals reveal synergistic principles of multisensory integration.

Multisensory interactions are a fundamental feature of brain organization. Principles governing multisensory processing have been established by varying stimulus location, timing and efficacy independently. Determining whether and how such principles operate when stimuli vary dynamically in their perceived distance (as when looming/receding) provides an assay for synergy among the above principles and also means for linking multisensory interactions between rudimentary stimuli with higher-order signals used for communication and motor planning. Human participants indicated movement of looming or receding versus static stimuli that were visual, auditory, or multisensory combinations while 160-channel EEG was recorded. Multivariate EEG analyses and distributed source estimations were performed. Nonlinear interactions between looming signals were observed at early poststimulus latencies (∼75 ms) in analyses of voltage waveforms, global field power, and source estimations. These looming-specific interactions positively correlated with reaction time facilitation, providing direct links between neural and performance metrics of multisensory integration. Statistical analyses of source estimations identified looming-specific interactions within the right claustrum/insula extending inferiorly into the amygdala and also within the bilateral cuneus extending into the inferior and lateral occipital cortices. Multisensory effects common to all conditions, regardless of perceived distance and congruity, followed (∼115 ms) and manifested as faster transition between temporally stable brain networks (vs summed responses to unisensory conditions). We demonstrate the early-latency, synergistic interplay between existing principles of multisensory interactions. Such findings change the manner in which to model multisensory interactions at neural and behavioral/perceptual levels. We also provide neurophysiologic backing for the notion that looming signals receive preferential treatment during perception.