Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

The bottom-quark mass from non-relativistic sum rules at NNNLO

We determine the mass of the bottom quark from high moments of the bbproduction cross section in e+e−annihilation, which are dominated by the threshold region. On the theory side next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order (NNNLO) calculations both for the resonances and the continuum cross section are used for the first time. We find mPSb(2GeV) =4.532+0.013−0.039GeVfor the potential-subtracted mass and mMSb(mMSb) =4.193+0.022−0.035GeVfor the MSbottom-quark mass.

Δ I = 1 / 2 rule for kaon decays derived from QCD infrared fixed point

This article gives details of our proposal to replace ordinary chiral SU(3)L×SU(3)R perturbation theory χPT3 by three-flavor chiral-scale perturbation theory χPTσ. In χPTσ, amplitudes are expanded at low energies and small u,d,s quark masses about an infrared fixed point αIR of three-flavor QCD. At αIR, the quark condensate ⟨q¯q⟩vac≠0 induces nine Nambu-Goldstone bosons: π,K,η, and a 0++ QCD dilaton σ. Physically, σ appears as the f0(500) resonance, a pole at a complex mass with real part ≲ mK. The ΔI=1/2 rule for nonleptonic K decays is then a consequence of χPTσ, with a KSσ coupling fixed by data for γγ→ππ and KS→γγ. We estimate RIR≈5 for the nonperturbative Drell-Yan ratio R=σ(e+e−→hadrons)/σ(e+e−→μ+μ−) at αIR and show that, in the many-color limit, σ/f0 becomes a narrow qq¯ state with planar-gluon corrections. Rules for the order of terms in χPTσ loop expansions are derived in Appendix A and extended in Appendix B to include inverse-power Li-Pagels singularities due to external operators. This relates to an observation that, for γγ channels, partial conservation of the dilatation current is not equivalent to σ-pole dominance.

Clinical usefulness of gene-expression profile to rule out acute rejection after heart transplantation: CARGO II.

AIMS A non-invasive gene-expression profiling (GEP) test for rejection surveillance of heart transplant recipients originated in the USA. A European-based study, Cardiac Allograft Rejection Gene Expression Observational II Study (CARGO II), was conducted to further clinically validate the GEP test performance. METHODS AND RESULTS Blood samples for GEP testing (AlloMap(®), CareDx, Brisbane, CA, USA) were collected during post-transplant surveillance. The reference standard for rejection status was based on histopathology grading of tissue from endomyocardial biopsy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), negative (NPVs), and positive predictive values (PPVs) for the GEP scores (range 0-39) were computed. Considering the GEP score of 34 as a cut-off (>6 months post-transplantation), 95.5% (381/399) of GEP tests were true negatives, 4.5% (18/399) were false negatives, 10.2% (6/59) were true positives, and 89.8% (53/59) were false positives. Based on 938 paired biopsies, the GEP test score AUC-ROC for distinguishing ≥3A rejection was 0.70 and 0.69 for ≥2-6 and >6 months post-transplantation, respectively. Depending on the chosen threshold score, the NPV and PPV range from 98.1 to 100% and 2.0 to 4.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION For ≥2-6 and >6 months post-transplantation, CARGO II GEP score performance (AUC-ROC = 0.70 and 0.69) is similar to the CARGO study results (AUC-ROC = 0.71 and 0.67). The low prevalence of ACR contributes to the high NPV and limited PPV of GEP testing. The choice of threshold score for practical use of GEP testing should consider overall clinical assessment of the patient's baseline risk for rejection.

An Avron rule for fragments of R-mingle

Axiomatic bases of admissible rules are obtained for fragments of the substructural logic R-mingle. In particular, it is shown that a ‘modus-ponens-like’ rule introduced by Arnon Avron forms a basis for the admissible rules of its implication and implication–fusion fragments, while a basis for the admissible rules of the full multiplicative fragment requires an additional countably infinite set of rules. Indeed, this latter case provides an example of a three-valued logic with a finitely axiomatizable consequence relation that has no finite basis for its admissible rules.

Linguista sum... sed lingua non definio. Absence de définition de la langue et circularité de la construction structurale

This article analyzes the Jakobsonian classification of aphasias. It aims to show on the one hand the non-linguistic character of this classification and on the other hand its asymmetry, in spite of the fact that its author had conceived his structural construction as symmetrical. The non-linguistic character of Jakobson’s formulation is due to the absence of any definition of language, this absence being the main characteristic of Jakobsonian linguistics: concerning the aphasia problem, the Jakobsonian formulation is linguistic solely by virtue of its object, aphasia, which is already considered as a linguistic concern because it belongs to the field of « language », but which is not defined as such (as linguistic). As for asymmetry, it demonstrates first the circularity of the Jakobsonian representation of language (the duality between structure and functioning), and secondly the non-linguistic character – in the Saussurean sense of the term – of the aphasia problem. Thus it appears that breaking (in the sense of Gaston Bachelard) with idiom is the prerequisite of a scientific apprehension of language, and therefore of any interdisciplinarity, this being one of Jakobson’s favorite topics but one that this linguist failed to render fruitful because he did not offer a real definition of language.

Regionalist Protest through Shared Rule? Peripherality and the Use of Cantonal Initiatives in Switzerland

In this article, we are interested in the extent to which federalism is able to deal with peripheral protest through shared rule channels. Shared rule as a key dimension of federal states has not thus far received adequate academic attention. Empirically, we analyse the use of all cantonal initiatives in Switzerland over the past 25 years as a particular instrument of shared rule, subsequently focusing on two peripheral regions with successful regionalist parties, Ticino and Geneva. We find that regionalist parties contribute towards radicalizing peripheral demands in search of attention from the centre. This leads to the mainstreaming of peripheral demands by pulling other parties along. We conclude that shared rule properly designed gives even the most peripheral regions a voice in national decisions, but that regionalist parties may also use shared rule instruments to mobilize their electorate at home to fight their non-regionalist competitors.

L'Hopital's Rule in Chemistry: Irreversible Morphing into Reversible Isothermal Expansions

L'Hopital's Rule is discussed in the cvase of an irreversible isothermal expansion.

Lee O Case's "Elements of the Phase Rule", Chapter 2

The second chapter of the Case text on the phase rule, this time dealing with two component systems, added to by the author, is presented here.

Does the Federal Reserve Follow a Non-Linear Taylor Rule?

The Taylor rule has become one of the most studied strategies for monetary policy. Yet, little is known whether the Federal Reserve follows a non-linear Taylor rule. This paper employs the smooth transition regression model and asks the question: does the Federal Reserve change its policy-rule according to the level of inflation and/or the output gap? I find that the Federal Reserve does follow a non-linear Taylor rule and, more importantly, that the Federal Reserve followed a non-linear Taylor rule during the golden era of monetary policy, 1985-2005, and a linear Taylor rule throughout the dark age of monetary policy, 1960-1979. Thus, good monetary policy is associated with a non-linear Taylor rule: once inflation approaches a certain threshold, the Federal Reserve adjusts its policy-rule and begins to respond more forcefully to inflation.

The Performance of Domestic and Foreign Banks: The Case of Korea and the Asian Financial Crisis

This paper considers the performance of banks, domestic and foreign, in Korea prior to, during, and immediately after the Asian financial crisis, examining how the profitability of those banks differed and identifying factors that explain why those differences existed. The performance of Korean banks deteriorated dramatically in 1998 with most banks recovering somewhat in 1999. Foreign banks did not experience the same negative effect on their returns on assets and equity as a rule. Several standard findings emerge. For example, equity to assets correlates positively with domestic, but not foreign, bank performance, as measured by the returns on assets and equity, even when the government recapitalized institutions that were performing quite badly. Also, foreign-currency deposits significantly and negatively correlate with domestic Korean bank performance, although only in the post-crisis period for regional banks. In sum, the domestic Korean banks suffered more severely from the Asian financial crisis than foreign banks.

Lee O. Case's "Elements of the Phase Rule", Chapter 1, One component systems

One component systems are treated from the point of view of the Gibbs' phase rule.