Using a simulation model for capacity management

A simulation model has been constructed of a valve manufacturing plant with the aim of assessing capacity requirements in response to a forecast increase in demand. The plant provides a weekly cycle of valves of varying types, based on a yearly production plan. Production control is provided by a just-in-time type system to minimise inventory. The simulation model investigates the effect on production lead time of a range of valve sequences into the plant. The study required the collection of information from a variety of sources, and a model that reflected the true capabilities of the production system. The simulation results convinced management that substantial changes were needed in order to meet demand. The case highlights the use of simulation in enabling a manager to quantify operational scenarios and thus provide a rational basis on which to take decisions on meeting performance criteria.

Modelling and simulation of biomass gasification in a circulating fluidized bed reactor

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has found great acceptance among the engineering community as a tool for research and design of processes that are practically difficult or expensive to study experimentally. One of these processes is the biomass gasification in a Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB). Biomass gasification is the thermo-chemical conversion of biomass at a high temperature and a controlled oxygen amount into fuel gas, also sometime referred to as syngas. Circulating fluidized bed is a type of reactor in which it is possible to maintain a stable and continuous circulation of solids in a gas-solid system. The main objectives of this thesis are four folds: (i) Develop a three-dimensional predictive model of biomass gasification in a CFB riser using advanced Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) (ii) Experimentally validate the developed hydrodynamic model using conventional and advanced measuring techniques (iii) Study the complex hydrodynamics, heat transfer and reaction kinetics through modelling and simulation (iv) Study the CFB gasifier performance through parametric analysis and identify the optimum operating condition to maximize the product gas quality. Two different and complimentary experimental techniques were used to validate the hydrodynamic model, namely pressure measurement and particle tracking. The pressure measurement is a very common and widely used technique in fluidized bed studies, while, particle tracking using PEPT, which was originally developed for medical imaging, is a relatively new technique in the engineering field. It is relatively expensive and only available at few research centres around the world. This study started with a simple poly-dispersed single solid phase then moved to binary solid phases. The single solid phase was used for primary validations and eliminating unnecessary options and steps in building the hydrodynamic model. Then the outcomes from the primary validations were applied to the secondary validations of the binary mixture to avoid time consuming computations. Studies on binary solid mixture hydrodynamics is rarely reported in the literature. In this study the binary solid mixture was modelled and validated using experimental data from the both techniques mentioned above. Good agreement was achieved with the both techniques. According to the general gasification steps the developed model has been separated into three main gasification stages; drying, devolatilization and tar cracking, and partial combustion and gasification. The drying was modelled as a mass transfer from the solid phase to the gas phase. The devolatilization and tar cracking model consist of two steps; the devolatilization of the biomass which is used as a single reaction to generate the biomass gases from the volatile materials and tar cracking. The latter is also modelled as one reaction to generate gases with fixed mass fractions. The first reaction was classified as a heterogeneous reaction while the second reaction was classified as homogenous reaction. The partial combustion and gasification model consisted of carbon combustion reactions and carbon and gas phase reactions. The partial combustion considered was for C, CO, H2 and CH4. The carbon gasification reactions used in this study is the Boudouard reaction with CO2, the reaction with H2O and Methanation (Methane forming reaction) reaction to generate methane. The other gas phase reactions considered in this study are the water gas shift reaction, which is modelled as a reversible reaction and the methane steam reforming reaction. The developed gasification model was validated using different experimental data from the literature and for a wide range of operating conditions. Good agreement was observed, thus confirming the capability of the model in predicting biomass gasification in a CFB to a great accuracy. The developed model has been successfully used to carry out sensitivity and parametric analysis. The sensitivity analysis included: study of the effect of inclusion of various combustion reaction; and the effect of radiation in the gasification reaction. The developed model was also used to carry out parametric analysis by changing the following gasifier operating conditions: fuel/air ratio; biomass flow rates; sand (heat carrier) temperatures; sand flow rates; sand and biomass particle sizes; gasifying agent (pure air or pure steam); pyrolysis models used; steam/biomass ratio. Finally, based on these parametric and sensitivity analysis a final model was recommended for the simulation of biomass gasification in a CFB riser.

Technology transfer and competitive operations:the valuation and collaboration questions

To improve competitiveness and find new markets companies are extending their operations through collaborations involving technology transfer. However, such collaborations have often been based on ad hoc agreements resulting from negotiations in which each side has been inadequately equipped with information about the other’s motivations and expectations. As a result there has been a gap in the ‘value’ attached to the technology, leading to delays or even failure in reaching an agreement. To address this problem a technology valuation and collaboration model has been developed using empirical data gathered from various points along the UK-China value chain for machine tool technology.

Joining S100 proteins and migration:for better or for worse, in sickness and in health

The vast diversity of S100 proteins has demonstrated a multitude of biological correlations with cell growth, cell differentiation and cell survival in numerous physiological and pathological conditions in all cells of the body. This review summarises some of the reported regulatory functions of S100 proteins (namely S100A1, S100A2, S100A4, S100A6, S100A7, S100A8/S100A9, S100A10, S100A11, S100A12, S100B and S100P) on cellular migration and invasion, established in both culture and animal model systems and the possible mechanisms that have been proposed to be responsible. These mechanisms involve intracellular events and components of the cytoskeletal organisation (actin/myosin filaments, intermediate filaments and microtubules) as well as extracellular signalling at different cell surface receptors (RAGE and integrins). Finally, we shall attempt to demonstrate how aberrant expression of the S100 proteins may lead to pathological events and human disorders and furthermore provide a rationale to possibly explain why the expression of some of the S100 proteins (mainly S100A4 and S100P) has led to conflicting results on motility, depending on the cells used. © 2013 Springer Basel.

Blastocyst environment and its influence on offspring cardiovascular health:the heart of the matter

The development of adult-onset diseases such as type II diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular disease is traditionally attributed to adult lifestyle characteristics such as a lack of physical exercise, poor diet and smoking. However, evidence from both human and animal model studies has demonstrated that environmental factors such as an imbalance or reduction in maternal nutrition during gestation can have adverse effects on offspring metabolism and cardiovascular health. The severity and nature of the phenotypic changes induced in offspring is influenced by the period of gestation manipulated. In particular, the mammalian preimplantation embryo in different animal models displays particular sensitivity to environmental factors, either in vivo (maternal diet) or in vitro (embryo culture) that is associated with the onset of cardiovascular dysfunction in adult life. The detailed mechanisms by which environmental conditions can alter postnatal cardiovascular physiology are poorly understood. However, various factors including endothelial function, vascular responsiveness, the renin-angiotensin system, kidney structure and early postnatal growth dynamics have all been recognize as potential contributors. Here, we review the relationship between preimplantation embryo environment and postnatal cardiovascular disease risk, and consider biochemical, molecular, genetic and physiological pathways implicated in this association. © 2009 The Authors Journal compilation © 2009 Anatomical Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Data Assimilation Technique For Flood Monitoring and Prediction

This paper focuses on the development of methods and cascade of models for flood monitoring and forecasting and its implementation in Grid environment. The processing of satellite data for flood extent mapping is done using neural networks. For flood forecasting we use cascade of models: regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, hydrological model and hydraulic model. Implementation of developed methods and models in the Grid infrastructure and related projects are discussed.

A stage-oriented model (SOM) for e-commerce adoption:a study of Saudi Arabian organisations

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to construct a new e-commerce innovation and adoption model that takes into account various stages of e-commerce adoption (interactive, non-interactive and stabilised) and covers technological, organisational and environmental factors. This was tested using data collected from manufacturing and service companies in Saudi Arabia (SA) to reveal inhibitors and catalysts for e-commerce adoption. Design/methodology/approach - This study uses new data from surveys from 202 companies and then uses exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modelling for analyses. Findings - This study shows that the new stage-oriented model (SOM) is valid and can reveal specific detailed nuances of e-commerce adoption within a particular setting. Surprising results show that SA is not so very different to developed western countries in respect to e-commerce adoption. However there are some important differences which are discussed in detail. Research limitations/implications - A new SOM for e-commerce adoption is provided which may be used by other IS adoption researchers. Practical implications - Managers responsible for the adoption of e-commerce in SA, the Middle East and beyond can learn from these findings to speed up adoption rates and make e-commerce more effective. Social implications - This work may help spread e-commerce use throughout SA, the Middle East and to other developing nations. Originality/value - The results add to the extremely limited number of empirical studies that has been conducted to investigate e-commerce adoption in the context of Arabic countries.

Uncertainty and Fuzzy Sets: Classifying the Situation

The so called “Plural Uncertainty Model” is considered, in which statistical, maxmin, interval and Fuzzy model of uncertainty are embedded. For the last case external and internal contradictions of the theory are investigated and the modified definition of the Fuzzy Sets is proposed to overcome the troubles of the classical variant of Fuzzy Subsets by L. Zadeh. The general variants of logit- and probit- regression are the model of the modified Fuzzy Sets. It is possible to say about observations within the modification of the theory. The conception of the “situation” is proposed within modified Fuzzy Theory and the classifying problem is considered. The algorithm of the classification for the situation is proposed being the analogue of the statistical MLM(maximum likelihood method). The example related possible observing the distribution from the collection of distribution is considered.

Generalised Riccati solution and pinning control of complex stochastic networks

This paper considers the global synchronisation of a stochastic version of coupled map lattices networks through an innovative stochastic adaptive linear quadratic pinning control methodology. In a stochastic network, each state receives only noisy measurement of its neighbours' states. For such networks we derive a generalised Riccati solution that quantifies and incorporates uncertainty of the forward dynamics and inverse controller in the derivation of the stochastic optimal control law. The generalised Riccati solution is derived using the Lyapunov approach. A probabilistic approximation type algorithm is employed to estimate the conditional distributions of the state and inverse controller from historical data and quantifying model uncertainties. The theoretical derivation is complemented by its validation on a set of representative examples.

The structure and dynamics of saxicolous lichen communities

The saxicolous lichen vegetation on Ordovician slate rock at the mouth of the River Dovey, South Merionethshire, Wales was described in relation to several environmental variables which include aspect, slope angle, light intensity, rock porosity, rock microtopography and rock stability. Each of the measured environmental variables was shown to influence the lichen vegetation. A number of groups of species which were characteristic of certain environments were described. The data from the saxicolous lichen communities were analysed using multivariate analysis. Qualitative and quantitative data were ordinated, the qualitative data being easier to interpret ecologically, and site number (which reflects distance from the sea and altitude), rock porosity and light intensity were shown to be important environmental variables. A classification of the data was also carried out. The results of the ordination and classification were combined together and a model constructed which describes saxicolous lichen vegetation. A method which uses the model as an aid to the design and interpretation of field experiments is described. The model is applied to an experiment which investigates the effect on growth of transplanting four saxicolous lichens to different aspects. Growth was inhibited in Physcia orbicularis and Parmelia conspersa on rock surfaces of northwest aspect compared with growth on rock surfaces of southeast aspect. Growth was inhibited in Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa on rock surfaces of southeast aspect compared with rock surfaces of northwesr aspect. The growth of Parmelia saxatilis was similar at both southeast and northwesr aspects. Growth inhibition or stimulation in thalli of Physcia orbicularis, Parmelia conspersa and Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa after transplantation was consistent with the predictions of the model while the results for Parmelia saxatilis were not as expected. There was evidence that the frequency of Parmelia conspersa and Parmelia glabratula at a site is related to an effect of the environment on the growth of the thalli. There was also evidence that the frequency of Physcia orbicularis at a site is related to an effect of the environment on the establishment phase of the thalli and for the competitive exclusion of Parmelia saxatilis thalli from southeast facing rock surfaces. The distribution of lichens in relation to height on nine rock surfaces was investigated. It was suggested that the distribution of the lichens was influenced by microclimatic factors which are related to height on the rock, environmental variables which are associated with the rock substratum (e.g. rock porosity and rock microtopography) and by historical factors. The pattern of one crustose and one foliose lichen on four rock surfaces of different aspect and slope was investigated. On the vertically inclined surface the density of small thalli of Buellia aethalea and Parmelia glabratula ssp fuliginosa was correlated with the microtopography of the surface in transects horizontally across the rock surface but not in transects vertically down the rock surface. there were consitent differences in the scale and intensity of pattern horizontally and vertically and also a decrease in the intensity of pattern vertically as the slope of the rock surface decreased. These results were consistent with the suggestion of a gradient of microclimatic factors up the rock. The differences in the scale and intensity of pattern in different size classes in the population were consistent with the changes in pattern with time which have been shown to occur during succession in sand dune and salt marsh vegetation. The relationship between thallus size and height on a rock surface and between the radial growth rate and location of a thallus on a rock surface were investigated. Thalli of Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa were larger at the top of the rock surface than at the bottom and the data were consistent with the suggestion that the colonisation of the rock surface began at the top and, in time, spread downwards. The radial growth rate of the thalli could not be related to variation in slope, porosity, microtopography or directly to height on the rock but could be related to the horizontal location of the thalli on the rock. These results were consistent with the suggestion that here is a gradient of microclimatic factors across the rock surface which is also modified by height on the rock surface. The succession of lichen communities was described by relating the vegetation to rock porosity, rock microtopography, species diversity and rock stability. An initial stage dominated by crustose lichens leads to communities dominated by crustose, foliose and fruticose species. In the late stages of the succession on some rock surfaces crustose species again become dominant. The occurrence of the climax state and cyclic vegetation change in lichen communities are discussed. A mthod of estimating the age structure of a lichen population by relating thallus size to growth rate is described. The sources of error in the method are discussed in some detail and several refinements suggested to increase the accuracy of the method. The population dynamics of Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa was investigated by applying life tables to the age structures of eight different populations. The data were consistent with a period of relatively constant recruitment of thalli into the populations. Mortality in lichen populations was divided into deaths which occur after fragmentation of the thallus and deaths which occur after catastrophic environmental events. THe data suggest that the rate of fragmenting death is dependent on the age of the thallus while the rate of catastrophic death is dependent on the number of thalli established in an age class. A comparison of the numbers of thalli in each age class in the eight populations suggested that population density is controlled firstly, by climate and secondly, by variables related to the local rock surface environment. The rate of fragmenting death is related to the diversity of the community and the influence of diversity together with environmental variables in fluctuating or cyclic changes in population number.

Mapping and Merging of Anatomical Ontologies

This article presents the principal results of the Ph.D. thesis Intelligent systems in bioinformatics: mapping and merging anatomical ontologies by Peter Petrov, successfully defended at the St. Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia, Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics, Department of Information Technologies, on 26 April 2013.

Non-thermal transitions in a model inspired by moral decisions

This work introduces a model in which agents of a network act upon one another according to three different kinds of moral decisions. These decisions are based on an increasing level of sophistication in the empathy capacity of the agent, a hierarchy which we name Piaget's ladder. The decision strategy of the agents is non-rational, in the sense they are arbitrarily fixed, and the model presents quenched disorder given by the distribution of its defining parameters. An analytical solution for this model is obtained in the large system limit as well as a leading order correction for finite-size systems which shows that typical realisations of the model develop a phase structure with both continuous and discontinuous non-thermal transitions.

Vertical intra-industry trade and the EU accession: The case of Hungarian agri-food sector

The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between the factor endowment and the pattern of intra-industry trade. Our empirical analysis relates to Hungary’s intra-industry trade in agri-food products with 26 member states of the EU over the period 1999-2010. Estimations reject the comparative advantage explanation of vertical intra-industry trade and provide partial support the prediction of Flam and Helpman model. Findings highlight that nature of factor endowments play also important role in explanation of vertical intra-industry trade. Other variables like market size and distance confirm the theoretical expectations. In addition, trade with new member states positively, whilst the EU accession ambigouosly influence the share of vertical IIT.

Discrete time models of the term structure of interest rates and interest rate contingent claims

In this study, discrete time one-factor models of the term structure of interest rates and their application to the pricing of interest rate contingent claims are examined theoretically and empirically. The first chapter provides a discussion of the issues involved in the pricing of interest rate contingent claims and a description of the Ho and Lee (1986), Maloney and Byrne (1989), and Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) discrete time models. In the second chapter, a general discrete time model of the term structure from which the Ho and Lee, Maloney and Byrne, and Black, Derman, and Toy models can all be obtained is presented. The general model also provides for the specification of an additional model, the ExtendedMB model. The third chapter illustrates the application of the discrete time models to the pricing of a variety of interest rate contingent claims. In the final chapter, the performance of the Ho and Lee, Black, Derman, and Toy, and ExtendedMB models in the pricing of Eurodollar futures options is investigated empirically. The results indicate that the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models outperform the Ho and Lee model. Little difference in the performance of the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models is detected. ^

Development and implementation of a tool to assess the micro/macro elements in an organization

This study examines the congruency of planning between organizational structure and process, through an evaluation and planning model known as the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid. The model compares day-to-day planning within an organization to planning imposed by organizational administration and accrediting agencies. A survey instrument was developed to assess the micro and macro sociological analysis elements utilized by an organization.^ The Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid consists of four quadrants. Each quadrant contains characteristics that reflect the interaction between the micro and macro elements of planning, objectives and goals within an organization. The Over Macro/Over Micro, Quadrant 1, contains attributes that reflect a tremendous amount of action and ongoing adjustments, typical of an organization undergoing significant changes in either leadership, program and/or structure. Over Macro/Under Micro, Quadrant 2, reflects planning characteristics found in large, bureaucratic systems with little regard given to the workings of their component parts. Under Macro/Under Micro, Quadrant 3, reflects the uncooperative, uncoordinated organization, one that contains a multiplicity of viewpoints, language, objectives and goals. Under Macro/Under Micro, Quadrant 4 represents the worst case scenario for any organization. The attributes of this quadrant are very reactive, chaotic, non-productive and redundant.^ There were three phases to the study: development of the initial instrument, pilot testing the initial instrument and item revision, and administration and assessment of the refined instrument. The survey instrument was found to be valid and reliable for the purposes and audiences herein described.^ In order to expand the applicability of the instrument to other organizational settings, the survey was administered to three professional colleges within a university.^ The first three specific research questions collectively answered, in the affirmative, the basic research question: Can the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid be applied to an organization through an organizational development tool? The first specific question: Can an instrument be constructed that applies the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid? The second specific research question: Is the constructed instrument valid and reliable? The third specific research question: Does an instrument that applies the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid assess congruency of micro and macro planning, goals and objectives within an organization? The fourth specific research question: What are the differences in the responses based on roles and responsibilities within an organization? involved statistical analysis of the response data and comparisons obtained with the demographic data. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^