Modelling the bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants in agricultural food chains for regulatory exposure assessment

New models for estimating bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants in the agricultural food chain were developed using recent improvements to plant uptake and cattle transfer models. One model named AgriSim was based on K OW regressions of bioaccumulation in plants and cattle, while the other was a steady-state mechanistic model, AgriCom. The two developed models and European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances (EUSES), as a benchmark, were applied to four reported food chain (soil/air-grass-cow-milk) scenarios to evaluate the performance of each model simulation against the observed data. The four scenarios considered were as follows: (1) polluted soil and air, (2) polluted soil, (3) highly polluted soil surface and polluted subsurface and (4) polluted soil and air at different mountain elevations. AgriCom reproduced observed milk bioaccumulation well for all four scenarios, as did AgriSim for scenarios 1 and 2, but EUSES only did this for scenario 1. The main causes of the deviation for EUSES and AgriSim were the lack of the soil-air-plant pathway and the ambient air-plant pathway, respectively. Based on the results, it is recommended that soil-air-plant and ambient air-plant pathway should be calculated separately and the K OW regression of transfer factor to milk used in EUSES be avoided. AgriCom satisfied the recommendations that led to the low residual errors between the simulated and the observed bioaccumulation in agricultural food chain for the four scenarios considered. It is therefore recommended that this model should be incorporated into regulatory exposure assessment tools. The model uncertainty of the three models should be noted since the simulated concentration in milk from 5th to 95th percentile of the uncertainty analysis often varied over two orders of magnitude. Using a measured value of soil organic carbon content was effective to reduce this uncertainty by one order of magnitude.

Agricultural innovations at a Late Iron Age oppidum: archaeobotanical evidence for flax, food and fodder from Calleva Atrebatum, UK

The development of oppida in the late first millennium BC across north-western Europe represents a major change in settlement form and social organisation. The construction of extensive earthwork systems, the presence of nucleated settlement areas, long-distance trade links and the development of hierarchical societies have been evidenced. These imply that changes in the style and organisation of agriculture would have been required to support these proto-urban population centres. Hypotheses of the subsistence bases of these settlements, ranging from a reliance on surplus arable production from local rural settlements, to an emphasis on pastoral activities, are here reviewed and grounded against a wider understanding of the expansion of agriculture in the Late Iron Age. These agricultural models have not been previously evaluated. This paper presents archaeobotanical data from six well fills from large-scale excavations at Late Iron Age and Early Roman Silchester, a Late Iron Age territorial oppidum and subsequent Roman civitas capital located in central-southern Britain. This is the first large-scale study of waterlogged plant macrofossils from within a settlement area of an oppidum. Waterlogged plant macrofossils were studied from a series of wells within the settlement. An assessment of taphonomy, considering stratigraphic and contextual information, is reported, followed by an analysis of the diverse assemblages of the plant remains through univariate analysis. Key results evidence animal stabling, flax cultivation, hay meadow management and the use of heathland resources. The staple crops cultivated and consumed at Late Iron Age and Early Roman Silchester are consistent with those cultivated in the wider region, whilst a range of imported fruits and flavourings were also present. The adoption of new oil crops and new grassland management shows that agricultural innovations were associated with foddering for animals rather than providing food for the proto-urban population. The evidence from Silchester is compared with other archaeobotanical datasets from oppida in Europe in order to identify key trends in agricultural change.

Ecological traits affect the sensitivity of bees to land-use pressures in European agricultural landscapes

1. Bees are a functionally important and economically valuable group, but are threatened byland-use conversion and intensification. Such pressures are not expected to affect all species identically; rather, they are likely to be mediated by the species’ ecological traits. 2. Understanding which types of species are most vulnerable under which land uses is an important step towards effective conservation planning.3. We collated occurrence and abundance data for 257 bee species at 1584 European sites from surveys reported in 30 published papers (70 056 records) and combined them with species-level ecological trait data. We used mixed-effects models to assess the importance of land use (land-use class, agricultural use-intensity and a remotely-sensed measure of vegetation),traits and trait 9 land-use interactions, in explaining species occurrence and abundance.4. Species’ sensitivity to land use was most strongly influenced by flight season duration and foraging range, but also by niche breadth, reproductive strategy and phenology, with effects that differed among cropland, pastoral and urban habitats.5. Synthesis and applications. Rather than targeting particular species or settings, conservation action s may be more effective if focused on mitigating situations where species’ traits strongly and negatively interact with land-use pressures. We find evidence that low-intensity agriculture can maintain relatively diverse bee communities; in more intensive settings, added floral resources may be beneficial, but will require careful placement with respect to foraging ranges of smaller bee species. Protection of semi-natural habitats is essential, however; in particular, conversion to urban environments could have severe effects on bee diversity and pollination services. Our results highlight the importance of exploring how ecological traits mediate species responses to human impacts, but further research is needed to enhance the predictive ability of such analyses.

Humans and fire: changing relations in early agricultural and built environments in the Zagros, Iran, Iraq

Fire-centred studies have recently been highlighted as powerful avenues for investigation of energy flows and relations between humans, materials, environments and other species. The aim in this paper is to evaluate this potential first by reviewing the diverse theories and methods that can be applied to investigate the ecological and social significance of anthropogenic fire, and second by applying these to new and existing data sets in archaeology. This paper examines how fire-centred approaches can inform on one of the most significant step-changes in human lifeways and inter-relations with environment and other species – the transition from mobile hunting-gathering to more sedentary agriculture in a key heartland of change, the Zagros region of Iraq and Iran, c. 12,000–8,000 BP. In the review and case studies multiple links are investigated between human fire use and environment, ecology, energy use, technology, the built environment, health, social roles and relations, cultural practices and catastrophic events

The heterogeneity of wooded-agricultural landscape mosaics influences woodland bird community assemblages

Context Landscape heterogeneity (the composition and configuration of different landcover types) plays a key role in shaping woodland bird assemblages in wooded-agricultural mosaics. Understanding how species respond to landscape factors could contribute to preventing further decline of woodland bird populations. Objective To investigate how woodland birds with different species traits respond to landscape heterogeneity, and to identify whether specific landcover types are important for maintaining diverse populations in wooded-agricultural environments. Methods Birds were sampled from woodlands in 58 2 x 2 km tetrads across southern Britain. Landscape heterogeneity was quantified for each tetrad. Bird assemblage response was determined using redundancy analysis combined with variation partitioning and response trait analyses. Results For woodland bird assemblages, the independent explanatory importance of landscape composition and landscape configuration variables were closely interrelated. When considered simultaneously during variation partitioning, the community response was better represented by compositional variables. Different species responded to different landscape features and this could be explained by traits relating to woodland association, foraging strata and nest location. Ubiquitous, generalist species, many of which were hole-nesters or ground foragers, correlated positively with urban landcover while specialists of broadleaved woodland avoided landscapes containing urban areas. Species typical of coniferous woodland correlated with large conifer plantations. Conclusions At the 2 x 2 km scale, there was evidence that the availability of resources provided by proximate landcover types was highly important for shaping woodland bird assemblages. Further research to disentangle the effects of composition and configuration at different spatial scales is advocated.

Essays on robust portfolio selection and pension finance

This thesis examines three different, but related problems in the broad area of portfolio management for long-term institutional investors, and focuses mainly on the case of pension funds. The first idea (Chapter 3) is the application of a novel numerical technique – robust optimization – to a real-world pension scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) for first time. The corresponding empirical results are supported by many robustness checks and several benchmarks such as the Bayes-Stein and Black-Litterman models that are also applied for first time in a pension ALM framework, the Sharpe and Tint model and the actual USS asset allocations. The second idea presented in Chapter 4 is the investigation of whether the selection of the portfolio construction strategy matters in the SRI industry, an issue of great importance for long term investors. This study applies a variety of optimal and naïve portfolio diversification techniques to the same SRI-screened universe, and gives some answers to the question of which portfolio strategies tend to create superior SRI portfolios. Finally, the third idea (Chapter 5) compares the performance of a real-world pension scheme (USS) before and after the recent major changes in the pension rules under different dynamic asset allocation strategies and the fixed-mix portfolio approach and quantifies the redistributive effects between various stakeholders. Although this study deals with a specific pension scheme, the methodology can be applied by other major pension schemes in countries such as the UK and USA that have changed their rules.

Brexit or Bremain? Future options for UK agricultural policy and the CAP

The outcome of the UK’s referendum on continued EU membership is at the time of writing uncertain, and the consequences of a vote to remain (‘Bremain’) or leave (‘Brexit’) difficult to predict. Polarised views have been voiced about the impact of Brexit on UK agriculture, and on the nature and level of funding, of future policy. Policymakers would not have the luxury of devising a new policy from scratch. WTO rules and commitments, the nature of any future accord with the EU, budget constraints, the rather different perspectives of the UK’s devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and the expectations of farmers, landowners and the environmental lobby, will all impact the policymaking process. The WTO dimension, and the UK’s future relationship with the EU, are particularly difficult to predict, and – some commentators believe – may take years to resolve. Brexit’s impact on the future CAP is also unclear. A vote to remain within the EU would not necessarily assuage the Eurosceptics’ criticisms of the EU, or the UK’s perception of the CAP. Whatever the outcome, future agricultural, food and rural land use policies will remain key preoccupations of European governments.

Chronic Diseases: Chronic Diseases and Development 2 Health, agricultural, and economic effects of adoption of healthy diet recommendations

Transition to diets that are high in saturated fat and sugar has caused a global public health concern as the pattern of food consumption is a mayor modifiable risk factor for chronic non-communicable diseases Although agri food systems are intimately associated with this transition, agriculture and health sectors are largely disconnected in their priorities policy, and analysis with neither side considering the complex inter relation between agri trade patterns of food consumption health, and development We show the importance of connection of these perspectives through estimation of the effect of adopting a healthy diet on population health, agricultural production trade the economy and livelihoods, with a computable general equilibrium approach On the basis of case studies from the UK and Brazil we suggest that benefits of a healthy diet policy will vary substantially between different populations, not only because of population dietary intake but also because of agricultural production trade and other economic factors

Sanitation assessment of wastewater treated by stabilization ponds for potential reuse in agricultural irrigation sanitation assessment

Wastewater reuse has become an important alternative to agricultural irrigation; on the other hand, it poses concern with regard to public health. Total coliform and Escherichia coli concentration, presence of helminth eggs and Salmonella, and physical-chemical parameters were evaluated in raw and treated wastewater. Chemical and biochemical oxygen demand removal efficiency was 74.6 and 77.9%, respectively. As for organic nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total suspended solids, total efficiency removal was 17.4, 12.5, and 32.9%, respectively. The average density of total coliforms and E. coli was 3.5 x 10(9) and 1.8 x 10(8) MPN/100 mL and 1.1 x 10(7) MPN/100 mL and 3.9 x 10(5) MPN/100 mL for raw and treated wastewater, respectively. Ascaris eggs were observed in 80.8% of the samples collected, and viable eggs in 42.3% of the samples. Salmonella was detected in 36.4% of the samples. The values observed in treated wastewater did not show the adequate bacteriological quality, as recommended by World Health Organization (Geneva, Switzerland). Therefore, additional measures should be taken to achieve an improved microbiological and parasitological quality.

Extended time weather forecasts contributes to agricultural productivity estimates

Weather conditions in critical periods of the vegetative crop development influence crop productivity, thus being a basic parameter for crop forecast. Reliable extended period weather forecasts may contribute to improve the estimation of agricultural productivity. The production of soybean plays an important role in the Brazilian economy, because this country is ranked among the largest producers of soybeans in the world. This culture can be significantly affected by water conditions, depending on the intensity of water deficit. This work explores the role of extended period weather forecasts for estimating soybean productivity in the southern part of Brazil, Passo Fundo, and Londrina (State of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana, respectively) in the 2005/2006 harvest. The goal was to investigate the possible contribution of precipitation forecasts as a substitute for the use of climatological data on crop forecasts. The results suggest that the use of meteorological forecasts generate more reliable productivity estimates during the growth period than those generated only through climatological information.

Graduate School and University Center Archives Finding Aid - Record Group VI: Vice-President for Finance and Administration

This is part of the finding aid to the Graduate School and University Center (GSUC) Archives. Record Group VI is the files of the Vice-Presidents for Finance and Administration.

Sources of Drinking Water and Agricultural Chemical Use in Maine

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Organic Farms and Agricultural Chemicals in Maine

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Avaliando questionários de risco e o comportamento do investidor sobre a ótica de behavioral finance

Tolerância ao risco é fundamental quando se tomam decisões financeiras. No entanto, a avaliação da tolerância ao risco tem se baseado ao longo dos anos em diferentes metodologias, tais como julgamentos heurísticos e a teoria da utilidade esperada que tem como base a hipótese dos mercados eficientes. Foi dentro desta ótica que este trabalho se desenvolveu. O objetivo é analisar três diferentes questionários de avaliação ao risco que são na prática amplamente utilizados por consultores financeiros. Foi assumido para isso que os investidores são considerados racionais, conhecem e ordenam de forma lógica suas preferências, buscam maximizar a "utilidade" de suas escolhas, e conseguem atribuir com precisão probabilidades aos eventos futuros, quando submetidos a escolhas que envolvam incertezas. No entanto, em uma análise preliminar dos questionários, estes poderiam estar utilizando conceitos de behavioral finance para avaliarem a tolerância ao risco, ao invés de utilizarem somente a metodologia tradicional da teoria da utilidade esperada. Dessa forma tornou-se necessário o estudo dos conceitos de behavioral finance. O primeiro capítulo então trata dos aspectos psicológicos do investidor, procurando entender como este se comporta e como este forma suas preferências. Apesar do estudo assumir racionalidade nas decisões, se a teoria de behavioral estiver correta e os investidores apresentarem desvios a racionalidade, como a teoria prospectiva afirma, o questionário poderia ser o veículo ideal para identificar tais desvios, sendo possível então educar e orientar o indivíduo em suas escolhas financeiras, afim de maximizá-las. O capitulo dois coloca a análise dos questionários inserida no contexto da teoria moderna de finanças, falando das escolhas de portfólio para investidores de longo prazo. O capítulo mostra de forma bem resumida e simplificada como o investidor maximiza a sua utilidade da riqueza. A idéia desse capítulo é entender como alguns julgamentos heurísticos assumidos na prática por consultores financeiros afetam as escolhas de portfólio e em quais condições esses julgamentos heurísticos são verdadeiros. Isso se torna importante pois os questionários mesclam medidas de risco com horizonte de investimentos do investidor. Estes questionários são utilizados para traçar uma política de investimentos completa para o investidor. Para cada perfil de risco encontrado a instituição traça um modelo de alocação de portfólio. O capítulo três trata da avaliação dos questionários em si tendo como base a teoria da utilidade esperada, os conceitos de behaviral finance e as lições tiradas das escolhas de portfólio para investidores de longo prazo.