962 resultados para Aggregate volatility risk


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Background Nurses are at high risk of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). Although the prevalence of MSDs of the lower back, upper limbs, neck and shoulders have been reported previously in nursing, few studies have evaluated MSDs of the foot and ankle. This study evaluated the prevalence of foot and ankle MSDs in nurses and their relation to individual and workplace risk factors. Methods A self-administered survey incorporating the Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire (NMQ) was distributed, over a nine-week period, to all eligible nurses (n = 416) working in a paediatric hospital in Brisbane, Australia. The prevalence of MSDs for each of the NMQ body regions was determined. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the relationships between activity-limiting foot/ankle MSDs and risk factors related to the individual (age, body mass index, number of existing foot conditions, smoking history, general physical health [SF36 Physical Component Scale], footwear features) or the workplace (level of nursing position, work location, average hours worked, hours worked in previous week, time since last break from work). Results A 73% response rate was achieved with 304 nurses completing surveys, of whom 276 were females (91%). Mean age of the nurses was 37 years (±10), younger than the state average of 43 years. Foot/ankle MSDs were the most prevalent conditions experienced by nurses during the preceding seven days (43.8%, 95% CI 38.2-49.4%), the second most prevalent MSDs to impair physical activity (16.7%, 95% CI 13.0-21.3%), and the third most prevalent MSD, after lower-back and neck problems, during the preceding 12 months (55.3%, 95% CI 49.6-60.7%). Of the nurse and work characteristics investigated, obesity, poor general physical health, existing foot conditions and working in the intensive care unit emerged as statistically significant (p < 0.05) independent risk factors for activity-limiting foot/ankle MSDs. Conclusions Foot/ankle MSDs are common in paediatric hospital nurses and resulted in physical activity limitations in one out of every six nurses. We recommend targeted education programs regarding the prevention, self-management and treatment strategies for foot/ankle MSDs. Further research is needed into the impact of work location and extended shift durations on foot/ankle MSDs.

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With the smartphone revolution, consumer-focused mobile medical applications (apps) have flooded the market without restriction. We searched the market for commercially available apps on all mobile platforms that could provide automated risk analysis of the most serious skin cancer, melanoma. We tested 5 relevant apps against 15 images of previously excised skin lesions and compared the apps' risk grades to the known histopathologic diagnosis of the lesions. Two of the apps did not identify any of the melanomas. The remaining 3 apps obtained 80% sensitivity for melanoma risk identification; specificities for the 5 apps ranged from 20%-100%. Each app provided its own grading and recommendation scale and included a disclaimer recommending regular dermatologist evaluation regardless of the analysis outcome. The results indicate that autonomous lesion analysis is not yet ready for use as a triage tool. More concerning is the lack of restrictions and regulations for these applications.

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Introduction Presently, the severity of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is estimated based on the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Unfortunately, AHI does not provide information on the severity of individual obstruction events. Previously, the severity of individual obstruction events has been suggested to be related to the outcome of the disease. In this study, we incorporate this information into AHI and test whether this novel approach would aid in discriminating patients with the highest risk. We hypothesize that the introduced adjusted AHI parameter provides a valuable supplement to AHI in the diagnosis of the severity of OSA. Methods This hypothesis was tested by means of retrospective follow-up (mean ± sd follow-up time 198.2 ± 24.7 months) of 1,068 men originally referred to night polygraphy due to suspected OSA. After exclusion of the 264 patients using CPAP, the remaining 804 patients were divided into normal (AHI < 5) and OSA (AHI ≥ 5) categories based on conventional AHI and adjusted AHI. For a more detailed analysis, the patients were divided into normal, mild, moderate, and severe OSA categories based on conventional AHI and adjusted AHI. Subsequently, the mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in these groups were determined. Results Use of the severity of individual obstruction events for adjustment of AHI led to a significant rearrangement of patients between severity categories. Due to this rearrangement, the number of deceased patients diagnosed to have OSA was increased when adjusted AHI was used as the diagnostic index. Importantly, risk ratios of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular morbidity were higher in moderate and severe OSA groups formed based on the adjusted AHI parameter than in those formed based on conventional AHI. Conclusions The adjusted AHI parameter was found to give valuable supplementary information to AHI and to potentially improve the recognition of OSA patients with the highest risk of mortality or cardiovascular morbidity.

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A series of observational studies have been made to investigate the association of the ADAM33 gene polymorphisms with the risk of COPD, but their results were conflicting. Therefore, we performed an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the associations of ADAM33 gene polymorphisms with the risk of COPD. Thirteen case–control studies referring to nine SNPs were identified: V4 (rs2787094), T+1 (rs2280089), T2 (rs2280090), T1 (rs2280091), S2 (rs528557), S1 (rs3918396), Q−1 (rs612709), F+1 (rs511898) and ST+5 (rs597980). A dominant model (AA+Aa vs. aa), recessive model (AA vs. Aa+aa), additive model (AA vs. aa) and allelic model (A vs. a) were used to evaluate the association of ADAM33 polymorphism with the risk of COPD. The results indicated that significant associations were found for ADAM33 T1, T2, S1, Q−1, F+1 and ST+5 polymorphisms associated with the risk of COPD in different populations. However, no significant associations were found for V4, T+1 and S2 polymorphisms with the risk of COPD in all genetic models, even in the subgroup analysis by ethnicity. This meta-analysis provided evidence that the ADAM33 T1, T2, S1, Q−1, F+1 and ST+5 six locus polymorphisms association with the risk of COPD. Furthermore, T2, Q−1 and ST+5 indicated an association with the risk of COPD in the European populations, whereas T1, T2, S1, F+1 and Q−1 indicated an association with the risk of COPD in the Asian populations.

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Objective To identify the occupational risks for Australian paramedics, by describing the rate of injuries and fatalities and comparing those rates with other reports. Design and participants Retrospective descriptive study using data provided by Safe Work Australia for the period 2000–2010. The subjects were paramedics who had been injured in the course of their duties and for whom a claim had been made for workers compensation payments. Main outcome measures Rates of injury calculated from the data provided. Results The risk of serious injury among Australian paramedics was found to be more than seven times higher than the Australian national average. The fatality rate for paramedics was about six times higher than the national average. On average, every 2 years during the study period, one paramedic died and 30 were seriously injured in vehicle crashes. Ten Australian paramedics were seriously injured each year as a result of an assault. The injury rate for paramedics was more than two times higher than the rate for police officers. Conclusions The high rate of occupational injuries and fatalities among paramedics is a serious public health issue. The risk of injury in Australia is similar to that in the United States. While it may be anticipated that injury rates would be higher as a result of the nature of the work and environment of paramedics, further research is necessary to identify and validate the strategies required to minimise the rates of occupational injury for paramedics.

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Background Heatwaves have a significant impact on population health including both morbidity and mortality. In this study we examined the association between heatwaves and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) for renal diseases in children (aged 0–14 years) in Brisbane, Australia. Methods Daily data on EHAs for renal diseases in children and exposure to temperature and air pollution were obtained for Brisbane city from January 1, 1996 to December 31, 2005. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to compare the risks for renal diseases between heatwave and non-heatwave periods. Results There were 1565 EHAs for renal diseases in children during the study period. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on EHAs for renal diseases in children after adjusting for confounding factors (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.4–9.5). The risk estimates differed with lags and the use of different heatwave definitions. Conclusions There was a significant increase in EHAs for renal diseases in children during heatwaves in Brisbane, a subtropical city where people are well accustomed to warm weather. This finding may have significant implications for pediatric renal care, particularly in subtropical and tropical regions.

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The current research began from the starting point that what we are grappling with when we are dealing with violent extremists by and large is essentially ‘normal people’. What follows in this third major section of this research paper is the theoretical and conceptual search for making researchable the following question: ‘How do you assess someone who is normal?’

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Background Spatial analysis is increasingly important for identifying modifiable geographic risk factors for disease. However, spatial health data from surveys are often incomplete, ranging from missing data for only a few variables, to missing data for many variables. For spatial analyses of health outcomes, selection of an appropriate imputation method is critical in order to produce the most accurate inferences. Methods We present a cross-validation approach to select between three imputation methods for health survey data with correlated lifestyle covariates, using as a case study, type II diabetes mellitus (DM II) risk across 71 Queensland Local Government Areas (LGAs). We compare the accuracy of mean imputation to imputation using multivariate normal and conditional autoregressive prior distributions. Results Choice of imputation method depends upon the application and is not necessarily the most complex method. Mean imputation was selected as the most accurate method in this application. Conclusions Selecting an appropriate imputation method for health survey data, after accounting for spatial correlation and correlation between covariates, allows more complete analysis of geographic risk factors for disease with more confidence in the results to inform public policy decision-making.

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Background Foot disease complications, such as foot ulcers and infection, contribute to considerable morbidity and mortality. These complications are typically precipitated by “high-risk factors”, such as peripheral neuropathy and peripheral arterial disease. High-risk factors are more prevalent in specific “at risk” populations such as diabetes, kidney disease and cardiovascular disease. To the best of the authors’ knowledge a tool capturing multiple high-risk factors and foot disease complications in multiple at risk populations has yet to be tested. This study aimed to develop and test the validity and reliability of a Queensland High Risk Foot Form (QHRFF) tool. Methods The study was conducted in two phases. Phase one developed a QHRFF using an existing diabetes foot disease tool, literature searches, stakeholder groups and expert panel. Phase two tested the QHRFF for validity and reliability. Four clinicians, representing different levels of expertise, were recruited to test validity and reliability. Three cohorts of patients were recruited; one tested criterion measure reliability (n = 32), another tested criterion validity and inter-rater reliability (n = 43), and another tested intra-rater reliability (n = 19). Validity was determined using sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values (PPV). Reliability was determined using Kappa, weighted Kappa and intra-class correlation (ICC) statistics. Results A QHRFF tool containing 46 items across seven domains was developed. Criterion measure reliability of at least moderate categories of agreement (Kappa > 0.4; ICC > 0.75) was seen in 91% (29 of 32) tested items. Criterion validity of at least moderate categories (PPV > 0.7) was seen in 83% (60 of 72) tested items. Inter- and intra-rater reliability of at least moderate categories (Kappa > 0.4; ICC > 0.75) was seen in 88% (84 of 96) and 87% (20 of 23) tested items respectively. Conclusions The QHRFF had acceptable validity and reliability across the majority of items; particularly items identifying relevant co-morbidities, high-risk factors and foot disease complications. Recommendations have been made to improve or remove identified weaker items for future QHRFF versions. Overall, the QHRFF possesses suitable practicality, validity and reliability to assess and capture relevant foot disease items across multiple at risk populations.

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BACKGROUND: Monitoring studies revealed high concentrations of pesticides in the drainage canal of paddy fields. It is important to have a way to predict these concentrations in different management scenarios as an assessment tool. A simulation model for predicting the pesticide concentration in a paddy block (PCPF-B) was evaluated and then used to assess the effect of water management practices for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. RESULTS: The PCPF-B model achieved an acceptable performance. The model was applied to a constrained probabilistic approach using the Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the best management practices for reducing runoff of pretilachlor into the canal. The probabilistic model predictions using actual data of pesticide use and hydrological data in the canal showed that the water holding period (WHP) and the excess water storage depth (EWSD) effectively reduced the loss and concentration of pretilachlor from paddy fields to the drainage canal. The WHP also reduced the timespan of pesticide exposure in the drainage canal. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that: (1) the WHP be applied for as long as possible, but for at least 7 days, depending on the pesticide and field conditions; (2) an EWSD greater than 2 cm be maintained to store substantial rainfall in order to prevent paddy runoff, especially during the WHP.

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Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

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Background Health risk behavior among young people is a public health problem in Vietnam. In addition, road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for those aged 15–29 years. The consequences can be devastating for adolescents and their families, and can create a significant economic burden on society. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify protective and risk factors that may influence three health risk behaviors among school children: suicidal thinking (ST), drinking alcohol (DA), and underage motorbike driving (MD). Methods A cross-sectional survey of 972 adolescents (aged 12–15 years) was conducted in two secondary schools in Hanoi, Vietnam. The schools were purposely selected, one each from the inner city and a suburban area, from which classes (grade 6 to 8) were randomly selected. All students attending classes on survey days took part in the survey. The anonymous, self-completed questionnaire included measures of risk behavior, school connectedness, parental bonding, and other factors. Multivariable regression models were used to examine associations between the independent variables and the three health risk behaviors controlling for confounding factors. Results Young people in the inner city school reported a higher prevalence of all three risk behaviors than those in the suburban area (ST: 16.1% [95% confidence interval, or CI, 12.9–19.3] versus 4.6% [95% CI 2.7–6.5], p<0.001; DA: 20.3% [95% CI 16.8–23.8] versus 8.3% [95% CI 5.8–10.8], p<0.001, and MD: 10.1% [95% CI 7.4–12.8] versus 5.7% [95% CI 3.6–7.8], p<0.01). School connectedness and mother and father care appeared to be significant protective factors. For males, bullying in school was associated with suicidal thoughts, whereas for both males and females, school connectedness may be protective against suicidal ideation. Conclusion This study supports findings from other nations regarding suicidal thoughts and alcohol use, and appears to be one of the first to examine risk and protective factors forMD. Health promotion within schools should be introduced to improve students’ feelings of connectedness in combination with communication and education campaigns focusing on parental care and engaging teachers for the promotion of safer, supportive school environments.

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The prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV)–associated head and neck cancers is increasing, but the prevalence of oral HPV infection in the wider community remains unknown. We sought to determine the prevalence of, and identify risk factors for, oral HPV infection in a sample of young, healthy Australians. For this study, we recruited 307 Australian university students (18–35 years). Participants reported anonymously about basic characteristics, sexual behaviour, and alcohol, tobacco and illicit drugs use. We collected oral rinse samples from all participants for HPV testing and typing. Seven of 307 (2.3%) students tested positive for oral HPV infection (3 HPV-18, one each of HPV-16, -67, -69, -90), and six of them were males (p = 0.008). Compared to HPV negative students, those with oral HPV infection were more likely to have received oral sex from more partners in their lifetime (p = 0.0004) and in the last year (p = 0.008). We found no statistically significant associations with alcohol consumption, smoking or numbers of partners for passionate kissing or sexual intercourse. In conclusion, oral HPV infection was associated with male gender and receiving oral sex in our sample of young Australians.

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This study estimated the health and economic burden of child maltreatment in the East Asia and Pacific region, addressing a significant gap in the current evidence base. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were conducted to estimate the prevalence of child physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect, and witnessing parental violence. Population Attributable Fractions were calculated and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost from physical and mental health outcomes and health risk behaviors attributable to child maltreatment were estimated using the most recent comparable Global Burden of Disease data. DALY losses were converted into monetary value by assuming that one DALY is equal to the sub-region’s per capita GDP. The estimated economic value of DALYs lost to violence against children as a percentage of GDP ranged from 1.24% to 3.46% across sub-regions defined by the World Health Organization. The estimated economic value of DALYs (in constant 2000 US$) lost to child maltreatment in the EAP region totaled US $151 billion, accounting for 1.88% of the region’s GDP. Updated to 2012 dollars, the estimated economic burden totaled US $194 billion. In sensitivity analysis, the aggregate costs as a percentage of GDP range from 1.36% to 2.52%. The economic burden of child maltreatment in the East Asia and Pacific region is substantial, indicating the importance of preventing and responding to child maltreatment in this region. More comprehensive research into the impact of multiple types of childhood adversity on a wider range of putative health outcomes is needed to guide policy and programs for child protection in the region, and globally.

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Background Bien Hoa and Da Nang airbases were bulk storages for Agent Orange during the Vietnam War and currently are the two most severe dioxin hot spots. Objectives This study assesses the health risk of exposure to dioxin through foods for local residents living in seven wards surrounding these airbases. Methods This study follows the Australian Environmental Health Risk Assessment Framework to assess the health risk of exposure to dioxin in foods. Forty-six pooled samples of commonly consumed local foods were collected and analyzed for dioxin/furans. A food frequency and Knowledge–Attitude–Practice survey was also undertaken at 1000 local households, various stakeholders were involved and related publications were reviewed. Results Total dioxin/furan concentrations in samples of local “high-risk” foods (e.g. free range chicken meat and eggs, ducks, freshwater fish, snail and beef) ranged from 3.8 pg TEQ/g to 95 pg TEQ/g, while in “low-risk” foods (e.g. caged chicken meat and eggs, seafoods, pork, leafy vegetables, fruits, and rice) concentrations ranged from 0.03 pg TEQ/g to 6.1 pg TEQ/g. Estimated daily intake of dioxin if people who did not consume local high risk foods ranged from 3.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day to 6.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day (Bien Hoa) and from 1.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day to 4.3 pg TEQ/kg bw/day (Da Nang). Consumption of local high risk foods resulted in extremely high dioxin daily intakes (60.4–102.8 pg TEQ/kg bw/day in Bien Hoa; 27.0–148.0 pg TEQ/kg bw/day in Da Nang). Conclusions Consumption of local “high-risk” foods increases dioxin daily intakes far above the WHO recommended TDI (1–4 pg TEQ/kg bw/day). Practicing appropriate preventive measures is necessary to significantly reduce exposure and health risk.