Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UKMeteorological Office Hadley Centre’s climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is underestimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

Examination of long-wave radiative bias in general circulation models over North Africa during May–July

Satellite data are used to quantify and examine the bias in the outgoing long-wave (LW) radiation over North Africa during May–July simulated by a range of climate models and the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Simulations from an ensemble-mean of multiple climate models overestimate outgoing clear-sky long-wave radiation (LWc) by more than 20 W m−2 relative to observations from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) for May–July 2000 over parts of the west Sahara, and by 9 W m−2 for the North Africa region (20°W–30°E, 10–40°N). Experiments with the atmosphere-only version of the High-resolution Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HiGEM), suggest that including mineral dust radiative effects removes this bias. Furthermore, only by reducing surface temperature and emissivity by unrealistic amounts is it possible to explain the magnitude of the bias. Comparing simulations from the Met Office NWP model with satellite observations from Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instruments suggests that the model overestimates the LW by 20–40 W m−2 during North African summer. The bias declines over the period 2003–2008, although this is likely to relate to improvements in the model and inhomogeneity in the satellite time series. The bias in LWc coincides with high aerosol dust loading estimated from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), including during the GERBILS field campaign (18–28 June 2007) where model overestimates in LWc greater than 20 W m−2 and OMI-estimated aerosol optical depth (AOD) greater than 0.8 are concurrent around 20°N, 0–20°W. A model-minus-GERB LW bias of around 30 W m−2 coincides with high AOD during the period 18–21 June 2007, although differences in cloud cover also impact the model–GERB differences. Copyright © Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright, 2010

Quantifying chaos: a tale of two maps

In many applications, there is a desire to determine if the dynamics of interest are chaotic or not. Since positive Lyapunov exponents are a signature for chaos, they are often used to determine this. Reliable estimates of Lyapunov exponents should demonstrate evidence of convergence; but literature abounds in which this evidence lacks. This paper presents two maps through which it highlights the importance of providing evidence of convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates. The results suggest cautious conclusions when confronted with real data. Moreover, the maps are interesting in their own right.

Built environment education and research in West Africa

Built environment programmes in West African universities; and research contributions from West Africa in six leading international journals and proceedings of the WABER conference are explored. At least 20 universities in the region offer degree programmes in Architecture (86% out of 23 universities); Building (57%); Civil Engineering (67%); Estate Management (52%); Quantity Surveying (52%); Surveying and Geoinformatics (55%); Urban and Regional Planning (67%). The lecturer-student ratio on programmes is around 1:25 compared to the 1:10 benchmark for excellence. Academics who teach on the programmes are clearly research active with some having published papers in leading international journals. There is, however, plenty of scope for improvement particularly at the highest international level. Out of more than 5000 papers published in six leading international peer-reviewed journals since each of them was established, only 23 of the papers have come from West Africa. The 23 papers are published by 28 academics based in 13 universities. Although some academics may publish their work in the plethora of journals that have proliferated in recent years, new generation researchers are encouraged to publish in more established journals. The analyses of 187 publications in the WABER conference proceedings revealed 18 research-active universities. Factors like quality of teaching, research and lecturer-student ratio, etc count in the ranking of universities. The findings lay bare some of the areas that should be addressed to improve the landscape of higher education in West Africa.