Simulation-based fully Bayesian experimental design for mixed effects models

In this paper, we present fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, in which we develop simulation-based optimal design methods to search over both continuous and discrete design spaces. Although Bayesian inference has commonly been performed on nonlinear mixed effects models, there is a lack of research into performing Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear mixed effects models that require searches to be performed over several design variables. This is likely due to the fact that it is much more computationally intensive to perform optimal experimental design for nonlinear mixed effects models than it is to perform inference in the Bayesian framework. In this paper, the design problem is to determine the optimal number of subjects and samples per subject, as well as the (near) optimal urine sampling times for a population pharmacokinetic study in horses, so that the population pharmacokinetic parameters can be precisely estimated, subject to cost constraints. The optimal sampling strategies, in terms of the number of subjects and the number of samples per subject, were found to be substantially different between the examples considered in this work, which highlights the fact that the designs are rather problem-dependent and require optimisation using the methods presented in this paper.

Methodology for developing real-time motorway traffic risk identification models using individual-vehicle data

Most of existing motorway traffic safety studies using disaggregate traffic flow data aim at developing models for identifying real-time traffic risks by comparing pre-crash and non-crash conditions. One of serious shortcomings in those studies is that non-crash conditions are arbitrarily selected and hence, not representative, i.e. selected non-crash data might not be the right data comparable with pre-crash data; the non-crash/pre-crash ratio is arbitrarily decided and neglects the abundance of non-crash over pre-crash conditions; etc. Here, we present a methodology for developing a real-time MotorwaY Traffic Risk Identification Model (MyTRIM) using individual vehicle data, meteorological data, and crash data. Non-crash data are clustered into groups called traffic regimes. Thereafter, pre-crash data are classified into regimes to match with relevant non-crash data. Among totally eight traffic regimes obtained, four highly risky regimes were identified; three regime-based Risk Identification Models (RIM) with sufficient pre-crash data were developed. MyTRIM memorizes the latest risk evolution identified by RIM to predict near future risks. Traffic practitioners can decide MyTRIM’s memory size based on the trade-off between detection and false alarm rates. Decreasing the memory size from 5 to 1 precipitates the increase of detection rate from 65.0% to 100.0% and of false alarm rate from 0.21% to 3.68%. Moreover, critical factors in differentiating pre-crash and non-crash conditions are recognized and usable for developing preventive measures. MyTRIM can be used by practitioners in real-time as an independent tool to make online decision or integrated with existing traffic management systems.

Advanced pubertal status at age 11 and lower physical activity in adolescent girls

Objective To examine the relationship between pubertal timing and physical activity. Study design A longitudinal sample of 143 adolescent girls was assessed at ages 11 and 13 years. Girls' pubertal development was assessed at age 11 with blood estradiol levels, Tanner breast staging criteria, and parental report of pubertal development. Girls were classified as early maturers (n = 41) or later maturers (n = 102) on the basis of their scores on the 3 pubertal development measures. Dependent variables measured at age 13 were average minutes/day of moderate to vigorous and vigorous physical activity as measured by the ActiGraph accelerometer. Results Early-maturing girls had significantly lower self-reported physical activity and accumulated fewer minutes of moderate to vigorous and vigorous physical activity and accelerometer counts per day at age 13 than later maturing girls. These effects v.-ere independent of differences in percentage body fat and self-reported physical activity at age 11. Conclusion Girls experiencing early pubertal maturation at age 11 reported lower subsequent physical activity at age 13 than their later maturing peers. Pubertal maturation, in particular early maturation relative to peers, may lead to declines in physical activity among adolescent girls.

Beyond tasks and gateways: discovering BPMN models with subprocesses, boundary events and activity markers

Existing techniques for automated discovery of process models from event logs largely focus on extracting flat process models. In other words, they fail to exploit the notion of subprocess, as well as structured error handling and repetition constructs provided by contemporary process modeling notations, such as the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN). This paper presents a technique for automated discovery of BPMN models containing subprocesses, interrupting and non-interrupting boundary events, and loop and multi-instance markers. The technique analyzes dependencies between data attributes associated with events, in order to identify subprocesses and to extract their associated logs. Parent process and subprocess models are then discovered separately using existing techniques for flat process model discovery. Finally, the resulting models and logs are heuristically analyzed in order to identify boundary events and markers. A validation with one synthetic and two real-life logs shows that process models derived using the proposed technique are more accurate and less complex than those derived with flat process model discovery techniques.

A protocol for a pragmatic randomized controlled trial evaluating outcomes of emergency nurse practitioner service

Aim To evaluate emergency nurse practitioner service effectiveness on outcomes related to quality of care and service responsiveness. Background Increasing service pressures in the emergency setting have resulted in the adoption of service innovation models; the most common and rapidly expanding of these is the emergency nurse practitioner. The delivery of high quality patient care in the emergency department is one of the most important service indicators to be measured in health services today. The rapid uptake of emergency nurse practitioner service in Australia has outpaced the capacity to evaluate this model in outcomes related to safety and quality of patient care. Design Pragmatic randomized controlled trial at one site with 260 participants. Methods This protocol describes a definitive prospective randomized controlled trial, which will examine the impact of emergency nurse practitioner service on key patient care and service indicators. The study control will be standard emergency department care. The intervention will be emergency nurse practitioner service. The primary outcome measure is pain score reduction and time to analgesia. Secondary outcome measures are waiting time, number of patients who did not wait, length of stay in the emergency department and representations within 48 hours. Discussion Scant research enquiry evaluating emergency nurse practitioner service on patient effectiveness and service responsiveness exists currently. This study is a unique trial that will test the effectiveness of the emergency nurse practitioner service on patients who present to the emergency department with pain. The research will provide an opportunity to further evaluate emergency nurse practitioner models of care and build research capacity into the workforce.

Models for studying cellular invasion of basement membranes

Invasion of extracellular matrices is crucial to a number of physiological and pathophysiological states, including tumor cell metastasis, arthritis, embryo implantation, wound healing, and early development. To isolate invasion from the additional complexities of these scenarios a number of in vitro invasion assays have been developed over the years. Early studies employed intact tissues, like denuded amniotic membrane (1) or embryonic chick heart fragments (2), however recently, purified matrix components or complex matrix extracts have been used to provide more uniform and often more rapid analyses (for examples, see the following integrin studies). Of course, the more holistic view of invasion offered in the earlier assays is valuable and cannot be fully reproduced in these more rapid assays, but advantages of reproducibility among replicates, ease of preparation and analysis, and overall high throughput favor the newer assays. In this chapter, we will focus on providing detailed protocols for Matrigel-based assays (Matrigel=reconstituted basement membrane; reviewed in ref. (3)). Matrigel is an extract from the transplantable Engelbreth-Holm-Swarm murine sarcoma that deposits a multilammelar basement membrane. Matrigel is available commercially (Becton Dickinson, Bedford, MA), and can be manipulated as a liquid at 4°C into a variety of different formats. Alternatively, cell culture inserts precoated with Matrigel can be purchased for even greater simplicity.

The 3rd Knowledge Cities World Summit Proceedings

FROM KCWS 2010 Ch airs and Summit Proceeding Ed ito rs ‘Knowledge’ is a resource, which relies on the past for a better future. In the 21st century, more than ever before, cities around the world depend on the knowledge of their citizens, their institutions and their firms and enterprises. The knowledge image, the human competence and the reputation of their public and private institutions and corporations profiles a city. It attracts investment, qualified labour and professionals, as well as students and researchers. And it creates local life spaces and professional milieus, which offer the quality of life to the citizens that are seeking to cope with the challenges of modern life in a competitive world. Integrating knowledge-based development in urban strategies and policies, beyond the provision of schools and locations for higher education, has become a new ambitious arena of city politics. Coming from theory to practice, and bringing together the manifold knowledge stakeholders in a city and preparing joint visions for the knowledge city is a new challenge for city managers, urban planners and leaders of the civic society . It requires visionary power, creativity, holistic thinking, the willingness to cooperate with all groups of the local civil society, and the capability to moderate communication processes to overcome conflicts and to develop joint action for a sustainable future. This timely Melbourne 2010 – The Third Knowledge City World Summit makes an important reminder that ‘knowledge’ is the key notion in the 21st Century development. Considering this notion, the summit aims to shed light on the multi-faceted dimensions and various scales of building the ‘knowledge city’ and on ‘knowledge-based development’ paradigms. At this summit, the theoretical and practical maturing of knowledge-based development paradigms will be advanced through the interplay between the world’s leading academic’s theories and the practical models and strategies of practitioners’ and policy makers’ drawn from around the world. As chairs of The Melbourne 2010 Summit, we have compiled this summit proceeding in order to disseminate the knowledge generated and shared in Melbourne with the wider research, governance, and practice communities. The papers in the proceedings reflect the broad range of contributions to the summit. They report on recent developments in planning and managing knowledge cities and ICT infrastructure, they assess the role of knowledge institutions in regional innovation systems and of the intellectual capital of cities and regions; they describe the evolution of knowledge-based approaches to urban development in differing cultural environments; they finally bridge the discourse on the knowledge city to other urban development paradigms such as the creative city, the ubiquitous city or the compact city. The diversity of papers presented shows how different scholars from planning cultures around the world interpret the knowledge dimension in urban and regional development. All papers of this proceeding have gone through a double-blind peer review process and been reviewed by our summit editorial review and advisory board members. We cordially thank the members of the Summit Proceeding Editorial Review and Advisory Board for their diligent work in the review of the papers. We hope the papers in this proceeding will inspire and make a significant contribution to the research, governance, and practice circles.

The 4th Knowledge Cities World Summit Proceedings

FROM KCWS 2011 CHAIRS AND SUMMIT PROCEEDING EDITORS In recent years, with the impact of global knowledge economy, a more comprehensive development approach has gained significant popularity. This new development approach, so called ‘knowledgebased development’, is different from its traditional predecessor. With a much more balanced focus on all of the four key development domains – economic, enviro-urban, institutional, and sociocultural – this contemporary approach, aims to bring economic prosperity, environmental sustainability and local institutional competence with a just socio-spatial order to our cities and regions. The ultimate goal of knowledge-based development is to produce a city purposefully designed to encourage the continuous production, circulation and commercialisation of social and scientific knowledge – this will in turn establish a ‘knowledge city’. A city following the ‘knowledge city’ concept embarks on a strategic mission to firmly encourage and nurture locally focussed innovation, science and creativity within the context of an expanding knowledge economy and society. In this regard a ‘knowledge city’ can be seen as an integrated city, which physically and institutionally combines the functions of a science and technology park with civic and residential functions and urban amenities. It also offers one of the effective paradigms for the sustainable cities of our time. This fourth edition of KCWS – The 4th Knowledge Cities World Summit 2011 – makes an important reminder that the 'knowledge city' concept is a key notion in the 21st Century development. Considering this notion, the Summit sheds light on the multi-faceted dimensions and various scales of building a ‘knowledge city’ via 'knowledge-based development' paradigm by particularly focusing on the overall Summit theme of ‘Knowledge Cities for Future Generations’. At this summit, the theoretical and practical maturing of knowledge-based development paradigms are advanced through the interplay between the world’s leading academics’ theories and the practical models and strategies of practitioners’ and policy makers’ drawn from around the world. This summit proceeding is compiled in order to disseminate the knowledge generated and shared in KCWS 2011 with the wider research, governance, and practice communities the knowledge cocreated in this summit. All papers of this proceeding have gone through a double-blind peer review process and been reviewed by our summit editorial review and advisory board members. We, organisers of the summit, cordially thank the members of the Summit Proceeding Editorial Review and Advisory Board for their diligent work in the review of the papers. We hope the papers in this proceeding will inspire and make a significant contribution to the research, governance, and practice circles.

Numerical investigation into the buckling behavior of advanced grid stiffened composite cylindrical shell

Advanced grid stiffened composite cylindrical shell is widely adopted in advanced structures due to its exceptional mechanical properties. Buckling is a main failure mode of advanced grid stiffened structures in engineering, which calls for increasing attention. In this paper, the buckling response of advanced grid stiffened structure is investigated by three different means including equivalent stiffness model, finite element model and a hybrid model (H-model) that combines equivalent stiffness model with finite element model. Buckling experiment is carried out on an advanced grid stiffened structure to validate the efficiency of different modeling methods. Based on the comparison, the characteristics of different methods are independently evaluated. It is arguable that, by considering the defects of material, finite element model is a suitable numerical tool for the buckling analysis of advanced grid stiffened structures.

A comparison of three models for mine water management

Water management is vital for mine sites both for production and sustainability related issues. Effective water management is a complex task since the role of water on mine sites is multifaceted. Computers models are tools that represent mine site water interaction and can be used by mine sites to inform or evaluate their water management strategies. There exist several types of models that can be used to represent mine site water interactions. This paper presents three such models: an operational model, an aggregated systems model and a generic systems model. For each model the paper provides a description and example followed by an analysis of its advantages and disadvantages. The paper hypotheses that since no model is optimal for all situations, each model should be applied in situations where it is most appropriate based upon the scale of water interactions being investigated, either unit (operation), inter-site (aggregated systems) or intra-site (generic systems).

Vertical alignment of process models – how can we get there?

There is a wide variety of drivers for business process modelling initiatives, reaching from business evolution and process optimisation over compliance checking and process certification to process enactment. That, in turn, results in models that differ in content due to serving different purposes. In particular, processes are modelled on different abstraction levels and assume different perspectives. Vertical alignment of process models aims at handling these deviations. While the advantages of such an alignment for inter-model analysis and change propagation are out of question, a number of challenges has still to be addressed. In this paper, we discuss three main challenges for vertical alignment in detail. Against this background, the potential application of techniques from the field of process integration is critically assessed. Based thereon, we identify specific research questions that guide the design of a framework for model alignment.

Integrated access control for smart buildings using building information models

This thesis investigates the use of building information models for access control and security applications in critical infrastructures and complex building environments. It examines current problems in security management for physical and logical access control and proposes novel solutions that exploit the detailed information available in building information models. The project was carried out as part of the Airports of the Future Project and the research was modelled based on real-world problems identified in collaboration with our industry partners in the project.

Service innovation and business models

Western economies are highly dependent on service innovation for their growth and employment. An important driver for economic growth is, therefore, the development of new, innovative services like electronic services, mobile end-user services, new financial or personalized services. Service innovation joins four trends that currently shape the western economies: the growing importance of services, the need for innovation, changes in consumer and business markets, and the advancements in information and communication technology (ICT).

Advanced in-vehicle applications to mitigate driver aggression

Aggressive behavior at the steering wheel has been indicated as a contributing factor in a majority of crashes and anger has been compared to alcohol impairment in terms of probability to cause a crash. It has been shown that being in a state of anger or excitement while driving can decrease the drivers’ performances. . This paper reports the evaluation of 6 novel design alternatives of In-Vehicle Information Systems (IVIS) aimed at mitigating driver aggression. Each application presented was designed to tackle the following contributing factors to driver aggression: competitiveness, anonymity, territoriality, stress as well as social and emotional isolation. The 6 applications were simulated using computer vision algorithm to automatically overlay the real traffic conditions with ‘Head-Up Display’ visualizations. Two applications emerged over the others from participant’s evaluation: shared music combined the known calming effect of music with the sense of sympathy and intimacy caused by hearing other drivers’ music. The Shared Snapshot application provided an immediate gratification and was evaluated as a potential prevention of roadside quarrels. The paper presents Theoretical foundation, participant’s evaluations, implications and limitations of the study.

Colour by numbers in Excel 2007 : solving algebraic equations without algebra

This is an update of an earlier paper, and is written for Excel 2007. A series of Excel 2007 models is described. The more advanced versions allow solution of f(x)=0 by examining change of sign of function values. The function is graphed and change of sign easily detected by a change of colour. Relevant features of Excel 2007 used are Names, Scatter Chart and Conditional Formatting. Several sample Excel 2007 models are available for download, and the paper is intended to be used as a lesson plan for students having some familiarity with derivatives. For comparison and reference purposes, the paper also presents a brief outline of several common equation-solving strategies as an Appendix.