An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Tolerance or immunity to a tumor antigen expressed in somatic cells can be determined by systemic proinflammatory signals at the time of first antigen exposure

Mice transgenic for the E7 tumor Ag of human papillomavirus type 16, driven from a keratin 14 promoter, express E7 in keratinocytes but not dendritic cells. Grafted E7-transgenic skin is not rejected by E7-immunized mice that reject E7-transduced transplantable tumors. Rejection of recently transplanted E7-transgenic skin grafts, but not of control nontransgenic grafts or of established E7-transgenic grafts, is induced by systemic administration of live or killed Listeria monocytogenes or of endotoxin. Graft recipients that reject an E7 graft reject a subsequent E7 graft more rapidly and without further L. monocytogenes exposure, whereas recipients of an E7 graft given without L. monocytogenes do not reject a second graft, even if given with L. monocytogenes. Thus, cross-presentation of E7 from keratinocytes to the adaptive immune system occurs with or without a proinflammatory stimulus, but proinflammatory stimuli at the time of first cross-presentation of Ag can determine the nature of the immune response to the Ag. Furthermore, immune effector mechanisms responsible for rejection of epithelium expressing a tumor Ag in keratinocytes are different from those that reject an E7-expressing transplantable tumor. These observations have implications for immunotherapy for epithelial cancers.

Role of LMP1 in immune control of EBV infection

The Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) encoded latent membrane protein (LMP1) plays a crucial role in the long-term persistence of this virus within the cells of the immune system. Not only is this protein critical for the transformation of resting B cells by EBV, it also displays pleiotropic effects on various cellular proteins expressed in the host cell. These include up-regulation of expression of B cell activation antigens, adhesion molecules and various components of the antigen processing pathway. Here we discuss how LMP1 acts like an expression 'switch' which, depending on the stage of EBV infection, manoeuvres various pathways that either modulate the immune system towards or against its survival.

Step size control for efficient discrete element simulation

The step size determines the accuracy of a discrete element simulation. The position and velocity updating calculation uses a pre-calculated table and hence the control of step size can not use the integration formulas for step size control. A step size control scheme for use with the table driven velocity and position calculation uses the difference between the calculation result from one big step and that from two small steps. This variable time step size method chooses the suitable time step size for each particle at each step automatically according to the conditions. Simulation using fixed time step method is compared with that of using variable time step method. The difference in computation time for the same accuracy using a variable step size (compared to the fixed step) depends on the particular problem. For a simple test case the times are roughly similar. However, the variable step size gives the required accuracy on the first run. A fixed step size may require several runs to check the simulation accuracy or a conservative step size that results in longer run times. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Postmenopausal Hormone Use, Screening, and Breast Cancer: Characterization and Control of a Bias

Previous investigators have suggested that screening-related biases may explain associations between postmenopausal hormone use and breast cancer. To investigate these biases, we studied postmenopausal women in the Nurses' Health Study from 1988 to 1994. Hormone use is associated with increased subsequent screening. Among women not screened in the previous 2 years, the probability difference, comparing current hormone users with others, for having mammography in the following 2 years is 19.5%; among women previously screened, the difference is 4.9%. These differences persist after control for other factors. If the increase in screening is causal, screening by mammogram could be intermediate in the causal pathway to breast cancer diagnosis. To deal with this problem, we restrict attention to a subset of the cohort in which the effect of postmenopausal hormone use on screening is small (women previously screened). In this subset, the rate ratio comparing breast cancer rates among current postmenopausal hormone users with others is 1.28. In a sensitivity analysis, the bias could not by itself plausibly account for the associations in our data. Our data provide evidence of an association between postmenopausal hormone use and breast cancer that is not solely the product of a detection bias.

Supervisory control of wastewater treatment plants by combining principal component analysis and fuzzy c-means clustering

In this paper a methodology for integrated multivariate monitoring and control of biological wastewater treatment plants during extreme events is presented. To monitor the process, on-line dynamic principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the process data to extract the principal components that represent the underlying mechanisms of the process. Fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering is used to classify the operational state. Performing clustering on scores from PCA solves computational problems as well as increases robustness due to noise attenuation. The class-membership information from FCM is used to derive adequate control set points for the local control loops. The methodology is illustrated by a simulation study of a biological wastewater treatment plant, on which disturbances of various types are imposed. The results show that the methodology can be used to determine and co-ordinate control actions in order to shift the control objective and improve the effluent quality.

Conversion of glucosamine to galactosamine and allosamine derivatives: Control of inversions of stereochemistry at C-3 and C-4

The reactions of sodium benzoate with a series of trimesylates derived from glucosamine have been examined in an attempt to gain facile access to galactosamine analogues. Trimesylate 17, in which the amino group was protected as a phthalimide, underwent double displacement at positions 4 and 6 to give the dibenzoate 18 with the desired galactosamine configuration. In contrast, trimesylates 21 and 27, in which the amino groups were protected as acetamides, unexpectedly underwent double displacement at positions 3 and 6, giving products 22 and 28, respectively, with allosamine configurations.

Manual asymmetries in the preparation and control of goal-directed movements

The primary purpose of this experiment was to determine if left hand reaction time advantages in manual aiming result from a right hemisphere attentional advantage or an early right hemisphere role in movement preparation. Right-handed participants were required to either make rapid goal-directed movements to small targets or simply lift their hand upon target illumination. The amount of advance information about the target for a particular trial was manipulated by precuing a subset of potential targets prior to the reaction time interval. When participants were required to make aiming movements to targets in left space, the left hand enjoyed a reaction advantage that was not present for aiming in right space: or simple finger lifts. This advantage was independent of the amount or type of advance information provided by the precue. This finding supports the movement planning hypothesis. With respect to movement execution, participants completed their aiming movements more quickly when aiming with their right hand, particularly in right space. This right hand advantage in right space was due to the time required to decelerate the movement and to make feedback-based adjustments late in the movement trajectory. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Neural adaptations to resistance training - Implications for movement control

It has long been believed that resistance training is accompanied by changes within the nervous system that play an important role in the development of strength. Many elements of the nervous system exhibit the potential for adaptation in response to resistance training, including supraspinal centres, descending neural tracts, spinal circuitry and the motor end plate connections between motoneurons and muscle fibres. Yet the specific sites of adaptation along the neuraxis have seldom been identified experimentally, and much of the evidence for neural adaptations following resistance training remains indirect. As a consequence of this current lack of knowledge, there exists uncertainty regarding the manner in which resistance training impacts upon the control and execution of functional movements. We aim to demonstrate that resistance training is likely to cause adaptations to many neural elements that are involved in the control of movement, and is therefore likely to affect movement execution during a wide range of tasks. We review a small number of experiments that provide evidence that resistance training affects the way in which muscles that have been engaged during training are recruited during related movement tasks. The concepts addressed in this article represent an important new approach to research on the effects of resistance training. They are also of considerable practical importance, since most individuals perform resistance training in the expectation that it will enhance their performance in-related functional tasks.

Ethanol-related adaptive changes and physical dependence in rats after exposure to ethanol

Adaptive changes that occur after chronic exposure to ethanol are an important component in the development of physical dependence. We have focused our research on ethanol-induced changes in the expression of several genes that may be important in adaptation. In this article, we describe adaptive changes at the level of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor, in the protein expression and activity of the Egr transcription factors, and in the expression of a novel gene of unknown function. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Urban birth and migrant status as risk factors for psychosis: An Australian case-control study

Background Urban birth and migrant status have been identified as risk factors for psychosis in North American and European studies. The aim of this study was to explore these variables in an Australian case-control study. Method Country of birth of subjects and their parents, and place of birth of Australian-born subjects, were examined in individuals with psychosis drawn from a prevalence study (n = 310) and well controls recruited from the same catchment area (n = 303). Results Migrant status was associated with a significantly decreased odds of having a psychotic disorder. For those born in Australia, neither migrant status of parents nor urban birth was associated with having a psychotic disorder. Conclusions The lack of effect for urban birth and second-generation migrant status may help generate candidate environmental risk factors that operate in Europe but not in Australia.

Optimal input states and feedback for interferometric phase estimation

We derive optimal N-photon two-mode input states for interferometric phase measurements. Under canonical measurements the phase variance scales as N-2 for these states, as compared to N-1 or N-1/2 for states considered bq previous authors. We prove, that it is not possible to realize the canonical measurement by counting photons in the outputs of the interferometer, even if an adjustable auxiliary phase shift is allowed in the interferometer. However. we introduce a feedback algorithm based on Bayesian inference to control this auxiliary phase shift. This makes the measurement close to a canonical one, with a phase variance scaling slightly above N-2. With no feedback, the best result (given that the phase to be measured is completely unknown) is a scaling of N-1. For optimal input states having up to four photons, our feedback scheme is the best possible one, but for higher photon numbers more complicated schemes perform marginally better.

Long-distance signaling and the control of branching in the rms1 mutant of peal

The ramosus (rms) mutation (rms1) of pea (Pisum sativum) causes increased branching through modification of graft-transmissible signal(s) produced in rootstock and shoot. Additional grafting techniques have led us to propose that the novel signal regulated by Rms1 moves acropetally in shoots and acts as a branching inhibitor. Epicotyl interstock grafts showed that wild-type (WT) epicotyls grafted between rms1 scions and rootstocks can revert mutant scions to a WT non-branching phenotype. Mutant scions grafted together with mutant and WT rootstocks did not branch despite a contiguous mutant root-shoot system. The primary action of Rms1 is, therefore, unlikely to be to block transport of a branching stimulus from root to shoot. Rather, Rms1 may influence a long-distance signal that functions, directly or indirectly, as a branching inhibitor. It can be deduced that this signal moves acropetally in shoots because WT rootstocks inhibit branching in rms1 shoots, and although WT scions do not branch when grafted to mutant rootstocks, they do not inhibit branching in rms1 cotyledonary shoots growing from the same rootstocks. The acropetal direction of transport of the Rms1 signal supports previous evidence that the rms1 lesion is not in an auxin biosynthesis or transport pathway. The different branching phenotypes of WT and rms1 shoots growing from the same rms1 rootstock provides further evidence that the shoot has a major role in the regulation of branching and, moreover, that root-exported cytokinin is not the only graft-transmissible signal regulating branching in intact pea plants.