Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Pore water chemistry of samples near the sediment-water interface

Rhizon samplers were originally designed as micro-tensiometers for soil science to sample seepage water in the unsaturated zone. This study shows applications of Rhizons for porewater sampling from sediments in aquatic systems and presents a newly developed Rhizon in situ sampler (RISS). With the inexpensive Rhizon sampling technique, porewater profiles can be sampled with minimum disturbance of both the sediment structure and possible flow fields. Field experiments, tracer studies, and numerical modeling were combined to assess the suitability of Rhizons for porewater sampling. It is shown that the low effort and simple application makes Rhizons a powerful tool for porewater sampling and an alternative to classical methods. Our investigations show that Rhizons are well suited for sampling porewater on board a ship, in a laboratory, and also for in situ sampling. The results revealed that horizontally aligned Rhizons can sample porewater with a vertical resolution of 1 cm. Combined with an in situ benthic chamber system, the RISS allows studies of benthic fluxes and porewater profiles at the same location on the seafloor with negligible effect on the incubated sediment water interface. Results derived by porewater sampling of sediment cores from the Southern Ocean (Atlantic sector) and by in situ sampling of tidal flat sediments of the Wadden Sea (Sahlenburg/Cuxhaven, Germany) are presented.

Fasciola hepatica surface tegument: glycoproteins at the interface of parasite and host

Fasciola hepatica, commonly known as liver fluke, is a trematode which causes Fasciolosis in ruminants and humans. The outer tegumental coat of F. hepatica (FhTeg) is a complex metabolically active biological matrix that is continually exposed to the host immune system and therefore makes a good vaccine target. F. hepatica tegumental coat is highly glycosylated and helminth-derived immunogenic oligosaccharide motifs and glycoproteins are currently being investigated as novel vaccine candidates. This report presents the first systematic characterisation of FhTeg glycosylation using lectin microarrays to characterise carbohydrates motifs present, and lectin histochemistry to localize these on the F. hepatica tegument. We discovered that FhTeg glycoproteins are predominantly oligomannose oligosaccharides that are expressed on the spines, suckers and tegumental coat of F. hepatica and lectin blot analysis confirmed the abundance of N- glycosylated proteins. While some oligosaccharides are widely distributed on the fluke surface other subsets are restricted to distinct anatomical regions. We selectively enriched for FhTeg mannosylated glycoprotein subsets using lectin affinity chromatography and identified 369 proteins by mass spectrometric analysis. Among these proteins are a number of potential vaccine candidates with known immune modulatory properties including proteases, protease inhibitors, paramyosin, Venom Allergen-like II, Enolase and two proteins, nardilysin and TRIL, that have not been previously associated with F. hepatica Furthermore, we provide a comprehensive insight regarding the putative glycosylation of FhTeg components which could highlight the importance of further studies examining glycoconjugates in host-parasite interactions in the context of F. hepatica infection and the development of an effective vaccine.

A cross-sectional evaluation of community pharmacists’ perceptions of intermediate care and medicines management across the healthcare interface

Background Despite the importance placed on the concept of the multidisciplinary team in relation to intermediate care (IC), little is known about community pharmacists’ (CPs) involvement. 
Objective To determine CPs’ awareness of and involvement with IC services, perceptions of the transfer of patients’ medication information between healthcare settings and views of the development of a CP–IC service. 
Setting Community pharmacies in Northern Ireland. 
Methods A postal questionnaire, informed by previous qualitative work was developed and piloted. 
Main outcome measure CPs’ awareness of and involvement with IC. Results The response rate was 35.3 % (190/539). Under half (47.4 %) of CPs ‘agreed/strongly agreed’ that they understood the term ‘intermediate care’. Three quarters of respondents were either not involved or unsure if they were involved with providing services to IC. A small minority (1.2 %) of CPs reported that they received communication regarding medication changes made in hospital or IC settings ‘all of the time’. Only 9.5 and 0.5 % of respondents ‘strongly agreed’ that communication from hospital and IC, respectively, was sufficiently detailed. In total, 155 (81.6 %) CPs indicated that they would like to have greater involvement with IC services. ‘Current workload’ was ranked as the most important barrier to service development.
Conclusion It was revealed that CPs had little awareness of, or involvement with, IC. Communication of information relating to patients’ medicines between settings was perceived as insufficient, especially between IC and community pharmacy settings. CPs demonstrated willingness to be involved with IC and services aimed at bridging the communication gap between healthcare settings.

Logghantering : En undersökning av logghantering och logghanteringssystem

This research includes a review of the log management of the company Telia. The research has also included a comparison of the two log management sys- tems Splunk and ELK. The review of the company’s log management shows that log messages are being stored in files on a hard drive that can be accessed through the network. The log messages are system-specific. ELK is able to fetch log messages of different formats simultaneously, but this feature is not possible in Splunk where the process of uploading log messages has to be re- peated for log messages that have different formats. Both systems store log messages through a file system on a hard drive, where the systems are installed. In networks that involve multiple servers, ELK is distributing the log messages between the servers. Thus, the workload to perform searches and storing large amounts of data is reduced. Using Splunk in networks can also reduce the workload. This is done by using forwarders that send the log messages to one or multiple central servers which stores the messages. Searches of log messages in Splunk are performed by using a graphical interface. Searches in ELK is done by using a REST-API which can be used by external systems as well, to retrieve search results. Splunk also has a REST-API that can be used by external sys- tems to receive search results. The research revealed that ELK had a lower search time than Splunk. However, no method was found that could be used to measure the indexing time of ELK, which meant that no comparison could be made with respect to the indexing time for Splunk. For future work there should be an investigation whether there is any possibility to measure the indexing time of ELK. Another recommendation is to include more log management sys- tem in the research to improve the results that may be suitable candidates for the company Telia. An improvement suggestion as well, is to do performance tests in a network with multiple servers and thereby draw conclusions how the performance is in practice.

Model-driven development of sensor network applications with optimization of non-functional constraints

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) differ from conventional distributed systems in many aspects. The resource limitation of sensor nodes, the ad-hoc communication and topology of the network, coupled with an unpredictable deployment environment are difficult non-functional constraints that must be carefully taken into account when developing software systems for a WSN. Thus, more research needs to be done on designing, implementing and maintaining software for WSNs. This thesis aims to contribute to research being done in this area by presenting an approach to WSN application development that will improve the reusability, flexibility, and maintainability of the software. Firstly, we present a programming model and software architecture aimed at describing WSN applications, independently of the underlying operating system and hardware. The proposed architecture is described and realized using the Model-Driven Architecture (MDA) standard in order to achieve satisfactory levels of encapsulation and abstraction when programming sensor nodes. Besides, we study different non-functional constrains of WSN application and propose two approaches to optimize the application to satisfy these constrains. A real prototype framework was built to demonstrate the developed solutions in the thesis. The framework implemented the programming model and the multi-layered software architecture as components. A graphical interface, code generation components and supporting tools were also included to help developers design, implement, optimize, and test the WSN software. Finally, we evaluate and critically assess the proposed concepts. Two case studies are provided to support the evaluation. The first case study, a framework evaluation, is designed to assess the ease at which novice and intermediate users can develop correct and power efficient WSN applications, the portability level achieved by developing applications at a high-level of abstraction, and the estimated overhead due to usage of the framework in terms of the footprint and executable code size of the application. In the second case study, we discuss the design, implementation and optimization of a real-world application named TempSense, where a sensor network is used to monitor the temperature within an area.

Type-Aware Programming Models for Distributed Applications

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Interface entre arquitetura bioclimática e decisões projetuais

This research has as its object study focus bioclimatic in architecture and its conection with projects decisions, on what regards to environmental comfort for single-family dwelling. From the analysis of five architectural projects inserted in Natal/RN, warm-moist weather, this research gather informations regarding architectural features guided by shape and space arrengement, which embody important elements for the project design development. Computer simulations assisted as foundation to verify the efficiency grade for these projects strategies from shading analysis. Related strategies for the demands of natural ventilation circulation and thermal mass for refrigeration were analysed as well. Results show that there is an hierarchizing of priorities for the decisions made when it comes to shape and space disposition variables, as well as the way these variables will consider the bioclimatic demands. The analysis, even, show that there is no single way to respond to specific bioclimatic demands, as it points out the value of examination of the projectual solutions throughtout the conception process, in order to achieve an efficient project performance for the envimonment comfort

Nonparametric tests of collectively rational consumption behavior: an integer programming procedure

We present an IP-based nonparametric (revealed preference) testing procedure for rational consumption behavior in terms of general collective models, which include consumption externalities and public consumption. An empirical application to data drawn from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) demonstrates the practical usefulness of the procedure. Finally, we present extensions of the testing procedure to evaluate the goodness-of-…t of the collective model subject to testing, and to quantify and improve the power of the corresponding collective rationality tests.

Functional Programming With Relations

While programming in a relational framework has much to offer over the functional style in terms of expressiveness, computing with relations is less efficient, and more semantically troublesome. In this paper we propose a novel blend of the functional and relational styles. We identify a class of "causal relations", which inherit some of the bi-directionality properties of relations, but retain the efficiency and semantic foundations of the functional style.

Developmental programming of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS): prenatal androgens establish pancreatic islet α/β cell ratio and subsequent insulin secretion

Exogenous androgenic steroids applied to pregnant sheep programmes a PCOS-like phenotype in female offspring. Via ultrasound guidance we applied steroids directly to ovine fetuses at d62 and d82 of gestation, and examined fetal (day 90 gestation) and postnatal (11 months old) pancreatic structure and function. Of three classes of steroid agonists applied (androgen - Testosterone propionate (TP), estrogen - Diethystilbesterol (DES) and glucocorticoid - Dexamethasone (DEX)), only androgens (TP) caused altered pancreatic development. Beta cell numbers were significantly elevated in prenatally androgenised female fetuses (P=0.03) (to approximately the higher numbers found in male fetuses), whereas alpha cell counts were unaffected, precipitating decreased alpha:beta cell ratios in the developing fetal pancreas (P=0.001), sustained into adolescence (P=0.0004). In adolescence basal insulin secretion was significantly higher in female offspring from androgen-excess pregnancies (P=0.045), and an exaggerated, hyperinsulinaemic response to glucose challenge (P=0.0007) observed, whereas prenatal DES or DEX treatment had no effects upon insulin secretion. Postnatal insulin secretion correlated with beta cell numbers (P=0.03). We conclude that the pancreas is a primary locus of androgenic stimulation during development, giving rise to postnatal offspring whose pancreas secreted excess insulin due to excess beta cells in the presence of a normal number of alpha cells.

Fisheries ecology in the interface zone of Lake Nabugabo

This study was carried out in the interface zone of Lake Nabugabo, which is situated to the west of Lake Victoria. Four study sites were chosen from the south-western to the eastern ends of the euhydrophyte-dominated interface zone, which was about 10 km long, 10 to 50 m wide, 2 m deep and characterized by a thick layer of peat at the bottom. Nymphaea caerulea was the most dominant and widespread euhydrophyte species except in the eastern tip of the lake where it was replaced by Nymphaea lotus. Interspersed among these lilies was Ceratophyllum demersum in certain bays which were thought to be either water inlets or out-flows; Utricularia and Nymphoides indica were associated with monospecific stand of N. caerulea in the south- western end of the zone. The microinvertebrates were dominated by Copepoda (represented mainly by Cyclopoida), and Rotifera, with Cladocera occurring sporadically, while the macroinvertebrates were represented by Mollusca, Acarina, and seven insect orders of which Diptera (represented by Chironomidae) was the most dominant and widespread. Snails were found to have increased in abundance and distribution since the early 1960's. Nymphaea-Ceratophyllum mixed habitats had far more larval fishes and macroinvertebrates than monospecific stands of N. caerulea. Generally, the eastern end of the interface zone had more macroinvertebrates and larval fishes than the south-western end. Food habits of larval fishes were dominated by chironomid larvae; others consumed included detritus, aufwuchs and, periodically, cladocerans.

Development and Application of Predictive Models for Survival, Growth, and Death of Enteric Pathogens in Leafy Greens Supply Chain

Leafy greens are essential part of a healthy diet. Because of their health benefits, production and consumption of leafy greens has increased considerably in the U.S. in the last few decades. However, leafy greens are also associated with a large number of foodborne disease outbreaks in the last few years. The overall goal of this dissertation was to use the current knowledge of predictive models and available data to understand the growth, survival, and death of enteric pathogens in leafy greens at pre- and post-harvest levels. Temperature plays a major role in the growth and death of bacteria in foods. A growth-death model was developed for Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy greens for varying temperature conditions typically encountered during supply chain. The developed growth-death models were validated using experimental dynamic time-temperature profiles available in the literature. Furthermore, these growth-death models for Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes and a similar model for E. coli O157:H7 were used to predict the growth of these pathogens in leafy greens during transportation without temperature control. Refrigeration of leafy greens meets the purposes of increasing their shelf-life and mitigating the bacterial growth, but at the same time, storage of foods at lower temperature increases the storage cost. Nonlinear programming was used to optimize the storage temperature of leafy greens during supply chain while minimizing the storage cost and maintaining the desired levels of sensory quality and microbial safety. Most of the outbreaks associated with consumption of leafy greens contaminated with E. coli O157:H7 have occurred during July-November in the U.S. A dynamic system model consisting of subsystems and inputs (soil, irrigation, cattle, wildlife, and rainfall) simulating a farm in a major leafy greens producing area in California was developed. The model was simulated incorporating the events of planting, irrigation, harvesting, ground preparation for the new crop, contamination of soil and plants, and survival of E. coli O157:H7. The predictions of this system model are in agreement with the seasonality of outbreaks. This dissertation utilized the growth, survival, and death models of enteric pathogens in leafy greens during production and supply chain.

Neurorehabilitation of hand functions using brain computer interface

Introduction: Brain computer interface (BCI) is a promising new technology with possible application in neurorehabilitation after spinal cord injury. Movement imagination or attempted movement-based BCI coupled with functional electrical stimulation (FES) enables the simultaneous activation of the motor cortices and the muscles they control. When using the BCI- coupled with FES (known as BCI-FES), the subject activates the motor cortex using attempted movement or movement imagination of a limb. The BCI system detects the motor cortex activation and activates the FES attached to the muscles of the limb the subject is attempting or imaging to move. In this way the afferent and the efferent pathways of the nervous system are simultaneously activated. This simultaneous activation encourages Hebbian type learning which could be beneficial in functional rehabilitation after spinal cord injury (SCI). The FES is already in use in several SCI rehabilitation units but there is currently not enough clinical evidence to support the use of BCI-FES for rehabilitation. Aims: The main aim of this thesis is to assess outcomes in sub-acute tetraplegic patients using BCI-FES for functional hand rehabilitation. In addition, the thesis explores different methods for assessing neurological rehabilitation especially after BCI-FES therapy. The thesis also investigated mental rotation as a possible rehabilitation method in SCI. Methods: Following investigation into applicable methods that can be used to implement rehabilitative BCI, a BCI based on attempted movement was built. Further, the BCI was used to build a BCI-FES system. The BCI-FES system was used to deliver therapy to seven sub-acute tetraplegic patients who were scheduled to receive the therapy over a total period of 20 working days. These seven patients are in a 'BCI-FES' group. Five more patients were also recruited and offered equivalent FES quantity without the BCI. These further five patients are in a 'FES-only' group. Neurological and functional measures were investigated and used to assess both patient groups before and after therapy. Results: The results of the two groups of patients were compared. The patients in the BCI-FES group had better improvements. These improvements were found with outcome measures assessing neurological changes. The neurological changes following the use of the BCI-FES showed that during movement attempt, the activation of the motor cortex areas of the SCI patients became closer to the activation found in healthy individuals. The intensity of the activation and its spatial localisation both improved suggesting desirable cortical reorganisation. Furthermore, the responses of the somatosensory cortex during sensory stimulation were of clear evidence of better improvement in patients who used the BCI-FES. Missing somatosensory evoked potential peaks returned more for the BCI-FES group while there was no overall change in the FES-only group. Although the BCI-FES group had better neurological improvement, they did not show better functional improvement than the FES-only group. This was attributed mainly to the short duration of the study where therapies were only delivered for 20 working days. Conclusions: The results obtained from this study have shown that BCI-FES may induce cortical changes in the desired direction at least faster than FES alone. The observation of better improvement in the patients who used the BCI-FES is a good result in neurorehabilitation and it shows the potential of thought-controlled FES as a neurorehabilitation tool. These results back other studies that have shown the potential of BCI-FES in rehabilitation following neurological injuries that lead to movement impairment. Although the results are promising, further studies are necessary given the small number of subjects in the current study.

Online MBPeT dashboard : enabling performance testing as a service in the cloud

In this thesis, tool support is addressed for the combined disciplines of Model-based testing and performance testing. Model-based testing (MBT) utilizes abstract behavioral models to automate test generation, thus decreasing time and cost of test creation. MBT is a functional testing technique, thereby focusing on output, behavior, and functionality. Performance testing, however, is non-functional and is concerned with responsiveness and stability under various load conditions. MBPeT (Model-Based Performance evaluation Tool) is one such tool which utilizes probabilistic models, representing dynamic real-world user behavior patterns, to generate synthetic workload against a System Under Test and in turn carry out performance analysis based on key performance indicators (KPI). Developed at Åbo Akademi University, the MBPeT tool is currently comprised of a downloadable command-line based tool as well as a graphical user interface. The goal of this thesis project is two-fold: 1) to extend the existing MBPeT tool by deploying it as a web-based application, thereby removing the requirement of local installation, and 2) to design a user interface for this web application which will add new user interaction paradigms to the existing feature set of the tool. All phases of the MBPeT process will be realized via this single web deployment location including probabilistic model creation, test configurations, test session execution against a SUT with real-time monitoring of user configurable metric, and final test report generation and display. This web application (MBPeT Dashboard) is implemented with the Java programming language on top of the Vaadin framework for rich internet application development. The Vaadin framework handles the complicated web communications processes and front-end technologies, freeing developers to implement the business logic as well as the user interface in pure Java. A number of experiments are run in a case study environment to validate the functionality of the newly developed Dashboard application as well as the scalability of the solution implemented in handling multiple concurrent users. The results support a successful solution with regards to the functional and performance criteria defined, while improvements and optimizations are suggested to increase both of these factors.