Solar cycle 24: implications for energetic particles and long-term space climate change

The recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24) continue to show a relatively low heliospheric magnetic field strength and sunspot number (R), despite the average latitude of sunspots and the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet showing the rise to solar maximum is well underway. We extrapolate the available SC24 observations forward in time by assuming R will continue to follow a similar form to previous cycles, despite the end of the GSM, and predict a very weak cycle 24, with R peaking at ∼65–75 around the middle/end of 2012. Similarly, we estimate the heliospheric magnetic field strength will peak around 6nT. We estimate that average galactic cosmic ray fluxes above 1GV rigidity will be ∼10% higher in SC24 than SC23 and that the probability of a large SEP event during this cycle is 0.8, compared to 0.5 for SC23. Comparison of the SC24 R estimates with previous ends of GSMs inferred from 9300 years of cosmogenic isotope data places the current evolution of the Sun and heliosphere in the lowest 5% of cases, suggesting Maunder Minimum conditions are likely within the next 40 years.

Dietary intakes and food sources of phytoestrogens in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) 24-hour dietary recall cohort

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Phytoestrogens are estradiol-like natural compounds found in plants that have been associated with protective effects against chronic diseases, including some cancers, cardiovascular diseases and osteoporosis. The purpose of this study was to estimate the dietary intake of phytoestrogens, identify their food sources and their association with lifestyle factors in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Single 24-hour dietary recalls were collected from 36 037 individuals from 10 European countries, aged 35–74 years using a standardized computerized interview programe (EPIC-Soft). An ad hoc food composition database on phytoestrogens (isoflavones, lignans, coumestans, enterolignans and equol) was compiled using data from available databases, in order to obtain and describe phytoestrogen intakes and their food sources across 27 redefined EPIC centres. RESULTS: Mean total phytoestrogen intake was the highest in the UK health-conscious group (24.9 mg/day in men and 21.1 mg/day in women) whereas lowest in Greece (1.3 mg/day) in men and Spain-Granada (1.0 mg/day) in women. Northern European countries had higher intakes than southern countries. The main phytoestrogen contributors were isoflavones in both UK centres and lignans in the other EPIC cohorts. Age, body mass index, educational level, smoking status and physical activity were related to increased intakes of lignans, enterolignans and equol, but not to total phytoestrogen, isoflavone or coumestan intakes. In the UK cohorts, the major food sources of phytoestrogens were soy products. In the other EPIC cohorts the dietary sources were more distributed, among fruits, vegetables, soy products, cereal products, non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages. CONCLUSIONS: There was a high variability in the dietary intake of total and phytoestrogen subclasses and their food sources across European regions.

Solar cycle 24: what is the sun up to?

March 2012 brought the first solar and geomagnetic disturbances of any note during solar cycle 24. But perhaps what was most remarkable about these events was how unremarkable they were compared to others during the space-age, attracting attention only because solar activity had been so quiet. This follows an exceptionally low and long-lived solar cycle minimum, and so the current cycle looks likely to extend a long-term decline in solar activity that started around 1985 and that could even lead to conditions similar to the Maunder minimum within 40 years from now, with implications for solar-terrestrial science and the mitigation of space weather hazards and maybe even for climate in certain regions and seasons.

Field manual 3-24 and the heritage of counterinsurgency theory

The Counterinsurgency Manual FM 3-24 has been accused of being over-dependent on the counterinsurgency 'classics' Galula and Thompson. But comparison reveals that it is different in spirit. Galula and Thompson seek practical control; the Manual seeks to build 'legitimacy'. Its concept of legitimacy is superficially Weberian, but owes more to the writings of the American Max Manwaring. The Manual presupposes that a rights-based legal order can (other things being equal) be made to be cross-culturally attractive; 'effective governance' by itself can build legitimacy. The fusion of its methods with an ideology creates unrealistic criteria for success. Its weaknesses suggest a level of incapacity to think politically that will, in time, result in further failures.

A parentally-administered cognitive development assessment for children from 10 to 24 months

The Cognitive Development Questionnaire (CDQ) allows accurate assessment of cognitive development of children from 10 to 24 months by parents and caregivers in the home. It takes between one and two hours to complete over about a week. Three phases of work are described, in which the instrument is progressively refined to improve its validity and reliability. This resulting version of the CDQ shows excellent correlation with age, and with the Mental Scale of the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (Bayley, 1993). The CDQ thus offers researchers and clinicians a useful alternative to professionally-administered cognitive assessment in infancy.

Grouping of 24 apple cultivars on the basis of starch degradation rate and their fruit pattern

The ripening processes of 24 apple cultivars were examined in the United Kingdom National Fruit Collection in 2010. Basically the starch content, and additionally ground colour, water-soluble solids content and flesh firmness were studied during ripening. The degradation of the starch content was evaluated using a 0–10 scale. A starch degradation value of 50% was taken to be the optimum harvest date, with harvest beginning at a value of 40% and finishing at 60%. Depending on the cultivar, this represented a harvest window of 9 to 21 days. Later ripening cultivars matured more slowly, leading to a longer harvesting period, with the exception of cv. Feuillemorte. Pronounced differences were observed among the cultivars on the basis of the starch degradation pattern, allowing them to be divided into four groups. Separate charts were elaborated for each group that are recommended for use in practice.

Variability of the interplanetary medium at 1 A.U. over 24 years: 1963–1986

A survey is presented of hourly averages of observations of the interplanetary medium, made by satellites close to the Earth (i.e. at l a.u.) in the years 1963-1986. This survey therefore covers two complete solar cycles (numbers 20 and 21). The distributions and solar-cycle variations of IMF field strength, B, and its northward component (in GSM coordinates), B(z), and of the solar-wind density, n, speed, v, and dynamic pressure, P, are discussed. Because of their importance to the terrestrial magnetosphere/ionosphere, particular attention is given to B(z) and P. The solar-cycle variation in the magnitude and variability of B(z) previously reported for cycle 20, is also found for cycle 21. However, the solar-wind data show a number of differences between cycles 20 and 21. The average dynamic pressure is found to show a solar-cycle variation and a systematic increase over the period of the survey. The minimum of dynamic pressure at sunspot maximum is mainly due to reduced solar-wind densities in cycle 20, but lower solar-wind speed in cycle 21 is a more significant factor. The distribution of the duration of periods of stable polarity of the IMF B(z) component shows that the magnetosphere could achieve steady state for only a small fraction of the time and there is some evidence for a solar-cycle variation in this fraction. It is also found that the polarity changes in the IMF B(z) fall into two classes: one with an associated change in solar-wind dynamic pressure, the other without such a change. However, in only 20% of cases does the dynamic pressure change exceed 50%.

Life before ‘The New Biography’: Modernist biographical methods in the Hogarth Press ‘Books on Tolstoi’ 1920-24

In the early 1920s, before Virginia Woolf wrote her now well-known essays “The New Biography” and “The Art of Biography,” the Hogarth Press published four biographies of Tolstoy. Each of these English translations of Russian works takes a different approach to biographical composition, and as a group they offer multiple and contradictory perspectives on Tolstoy’s character and on the genre of biography in the early twentieth century. These works show that Leonard and Virginia Woolf’s Hogarth Press took a multi-perspectival, modernist approach to publishing literary lives.

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

Trigeminal nitric oxide synthase expression correlates with new bone formation during distraction osteogenesis

Nitric oxide synthase (NOS) has been reported to be involved with both bone healing and bone metabolism. The aim of this study was to test the null hypothesis that there is no correlation between new bone formation during mandibular distraction osteogenesis and NOS expression in the trigeminal ganglion of rats. Newly formed tissue during distraction osteogenesis and trigeminal NOS expression measured by the NADPH-diaphorase (NADPH-d) reaction were evaluated in 72 male Wistar rats by histomorphometric and histochemical methods. In animals submitted to 0.5 mm/day distraction osteogenesis, the percentage of bone tissue was higher in the basal area of the mandibles compared with the center and significantly increased through the experimental periods (P < 0.05). At the sixth postoperative week, the difference in bone formation between the continuous and acute distraction osteogenesis groups was the highest. Significant correlation between new bone formation by distraction osteogenesis and NADPH-d-reactive neurons was found, varying according to neuronal cell size (r = -0.6, P = 0.005, small cells strongly stained; r = 0.5, P = 0.018, large cells moderately stained). The results suggest that NOS may play a role in the bone healing process via neurogenic pathways, and the phenomenon seems to be neuronal cell morphotype-dependent. Further studies are now warranted to investigate the mechanistic link between the expression of trigeminal NOS and mandibular new bone formation by distraction osteogenesis.

Dietary practices and nutritional status of 0-24-month-old children from Brazilian Amazonia

Objective: To assess the nutritional status and dietary practices of 0-24-month-old children living in Brazilian Amazonia. Design: Cross-sectional study. Information oil children`s dietary intakes was obtained from diet history data. Weight and length Were measured for anthropometric evaluation. Fe status Was assessed Using fasting venous blood samples; Hb, serum ferritin and soluble tranferrin receptor concentrations were measured. Setting: The towns of Assis Brasil and Acrelandia in the state of Acre, north-west Brazil. Subjects: A total of sixty-nine randomly selected 0-24-month-old children. Results: Of these children, 40.3 % were anaemic, 63.1% were Fe-deficient, 28.1% had Fe-deficiency anaemia and 11.6% were stunted. Breast-feeding was initiated by 97.1% of mother followed by early feeding with complementary foods. The dietary pattern reflected a high intake of carbohydrate-rich foods and cow`s milk, with irregular intakes Of fruit, Vegetables and meat. All infants and 92.3% of toddlers were at risk Of inadequate Fe intakes. Fe from animal foods contributed Oil average 0.5% and 14.3% to total dietary Fe intake among infants and toddlers, respectively. Conclusions: Poor nutritional status and inadequate feeding practices in this study population reinforce the importance of exclusive breast-feeding during the first 6 months of life. Greater emphasis is required to improve the bioavailability of dietary Fe during complementary feeding practices.

Serological response of guinea pigs to oily and aqueous inactivated vaccines containing a Brazilian isolate of the Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV)

Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) is widespread in cattle in Brazil and research shows its large antigenic variability. Available vaccines are produced with virus strains isolated in other countries and may not be effective. In this study, inactivated vaccines containing the Brazilian BVDV-Ib IBSP11 isolate were developed and tested on 6 groups of 10 guinea pigs (Cavia porcellus). Animals in groups A and C received an aqueous vaccine (aluminum hydroxide); B and D groups received an oily vaccine (Montanide ISA50); Group E positive-control animals were given an imported commercial vaccine with BVDV-la Singer; Group F animals were sham vaccinated (negative control). Groups A, B and E received two doses, and Groups C and D, three, every 21 days. Twelve blood samples were taken, at 21-day intervals over 231 days, and evaluated for antibody titer through virus-neutralization (VN), using a homologous strain (IBSP11), and a heterologous strain (BVDV-la NADL). Most animals, 42 days following the first dose, seroconverted to both strains and, after the second dose, there was a significant increase of titers in all groups. The oily formulation induced greater response after the third administration. This increase was not observed with the aqueous vaccines, regardless of the virus used in the VN. Antibody decline was more rapid in animals that received aqueous vaccines. The results showed the importance of studying the influence of endemic strains of commercial vaccines, to improve the efficacy of BVD vaccination. Use of the endemic strain in vaccine formulation presented promising results, as well as the use of guinea pigs as a laboratory model. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The electronic and optical properties of sodalite (Na(8)Al(6)Si(6)O(24)Cl(2)) from first principles

This study reports the results of ab initio electronic and optical calculations for pure socialite crystal using the linear augmented plane wave (LAPW) method within density functional theory (DFT). The calculated electronic structure revealed predominantly orbital characters of the valence band and the conduction band, and enabled us to determine the type and the value of the fundamental gap of the compound. The imaginary part of the dielectric tensor, extinction coefficient and refraction index were calculated as functions of the incident radiation wavelength. It is shown that the O 2p states and Na 3s states play the major role in optical transitions as initial and final states, respectively. The absorption spectrum is localized in the ultraviolet range between 40 and 250 nm. Furthermore, we concluded that the material does not absorb radiation in the visible range. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.