Estimação e previsão no processo INARCH(2)

In the last decades the study of integer-valued time series has gained notoriety due to its broad applicability (modeling the number of car accidents in a given highway, or the number of people infected by a virus are two examples). One of the main interests of this area of study is to make forecasts, and for this reason it is very important to propose methods to make such forecasts, which consist of nonnegative integer values, due to the discrete nature of the data. In this work, we focus on the study and proposal of forecasts one, two and h steps ahead for integer-valued second-order autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity processes [INARCH (2)], and in determining some theoretical properties of this model, such as the ordinary moments of its marginal distribution and the asymptotic distribution of its conditional least squares estimators. In addition, we study, via Monte Carlo simulation, the behavior of the estimators for the parameters of INARCH(2) processes obtained using three di erent methods (Yule- Walker, conditional least squares, and conditional maximum likelihood), in terms of mean squared error, mean absolute error and bias. We present some forecast proposals for INARCH(2) processes, which are compared again via Monte Carlo simulation. As an application of this proposed theory, we model a dataset related to the number of live male births of mothers living at Riachuelo city, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes during experiments with four species of marine diatoms

The effect of pCO2 on carbon acquisition and intracellular assimilation was investigated in the three bloom-forming diatom species, Eucampia zodiacus (Ehrenberg), Skeletonema costatum (Greville) Cleve, Thalassionema nitzschioides (Grunow) Mereschkowsky and the non-bloom-forming Thalassiosira pseudonana (Hust.) Hasle and Heimdal. In vivo activities of carbonic anhydrase (CA), photosynthetic O2 evolution, CO2 and HCO3? uptake rates were measured by membrane-inlet mass spectrometry (MIMS) in cells acclimated to pCO2 levels of 370 and 800 ?atm. To investigate whether the cells operate a C4-like pathway, activities of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase (RubisCO) and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase (PEPC) were measured at the mentioned pCO2 levels and a lower pCO2 level of 50 ?atm. In the bloom-forming species, extracellular CA activities strongly increased with decreasing CO2 supply while constantly low activities were obtained for T. pseudonana. Half-saturation concentrations (K1/2) for photosynthetic O2 evolution decreased with decreasing CO2 supply in the two bloom-forming species S. costatum and T. nitzschioides, but not in T. pseudonana and E. zodiacus. With the exception of S. costatum, maximum rates (Vmax) of photosynthesis remained constant in all investigated diatom species. Independent of the pCO2 level, PEPC activities were significantly lower than those for RubisCO, averaging generally less than 3%. All examined diatom species operate highly efficient CCMs under ambient and high pCO2, but differ strongly in the degree of regulation of individual components of the CCM such as Ci uptake kinetics and extracellular CA activities. The present data do not suggest C4 metabolism in the investigated species.

Gaussian Process Kernels for Cross-Spectrum Analysis in Electrophysiological Time Series

Multi-output Gaussian processes provide a convenient framework for multi-task problems. An illustrative and motivating example of a multi-task problem is multi-region electrophysiological time-series data, where experimentalists are interested in both power and phase coherence between channels. Recently, the spectral mixture (SM) kernel was proposed to model the spectral density of a single task in a Gaussian process framework. This work develops a novel covariance kernel for multiple outputs, called the cross-spectral mixture (CSM) kernel. This new, flexible kernel represents both the power and phase relationship between multiple observation channels. The expressive capabilities of the CSM kernel are demonstrated through implementation of 1) a Bayesian hidden Markov model, where the emission distribution is a multi-output Gaussian process with a CSM covariance kernel, and 2) a Gaussian process factor analysis model, where factor scores represent the utilization of cross-spectral neural circuits. Results are presented for measured multi-region electrophysiological data.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and processes during experiments with coral Acropora eurystoma, 2006

The rise in atmospheric CO2 has caused significant decrease in sea surface pH and carbonate ion (CO3-2) concentration. This decrease has a negative effect on calcification in hermatypic corals and other calcifying organisms. We report the results of three laboratory experiments designed specifically to separate the effects of the different carbonate chemistry parameters (pH, CO3-2, CO2 [aq], total alkalinity [AT], and total inorganic carbon [CT]) on the calcification, photosynthesis, and respiration of the hermatypic coral Acropora eurystoma. The carbonate system was varied to change pH (7.9-8.5), without changing CT; CT was changed keeping the pH constant, and CT was changed keeping the pCO2 constant. In all of these experiments, calcification (both light and dark) was positively correlated with CO3-2 concentration, suggesting that the corals are not sensitive to pH or CT but to the CO3-2 concentration. A decrease of ~30% in the CO3-2 concentration (which is equivalent to a decrease of about 0.2 pH units in seawater) caused a calcification decrease of about 50%. These results suggest that calcification in today's ocean (pCO2 = 370 ppm) is lower by ~20% compared with preindustrial time (pCO2 = 280 ppm). An additional decrease of ~35% is expected if atmospheric CO2 concentration doubles (pCO2 = 560 ppm). In all of these experiments, photosynthesis and respiration did not show any significant response to changes in the carbonate chemistry of seawater. Based on this observation, we propose a mechanism by which the photosynthesis of symbionts is enhanced by coral calcification at high pH when CO2(aq) is low. Overall it seems that photosynthesis and calcification support each other mainly through internal pH regulation, which provides CO3-2 ions for calcification and CO2(aq) for photosynthesis.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes during experiments with postlarvae of barnacle of Semibalanus balanoides and Elminius modestus, 2010

Ocean acidification and global warming are occurring concomitantly, yet few studies have investigated how organisms will respond to increases in both temperature and CO2. Intertidal microcosms were used to examine growth, shell mineralogy and survival of two intertidal barnacle post-larvae, Semibalanus balanoides and Elminius modestus, at two temperatures (14 and 19°C) and two CO2 concentrations (380 and 1,000 ppm), fed with a mixed diatom-flagellate diet at 15,000 cells ml-1 with flow rate of 10 ml-1 min-1. Control growth rates, using operculum diameter, were 14 ± 8 µm day-1 and 6 ± 2 µm day-1 for S. balanoides and E. modestus, respectively. Subtle, but significant decreases in E. modestus growth rate were observed in high CO2 but there were no impacts on shell calcium content and survival by either elevated temperature or CO2. S. balanoides exhibited no clear alterations in growth rate but did show a large reduction in shell calcium content and survival under elevated temperature and CO2. These results suggest that a decrease by 0.4 pH(NBS) units alone would not be sufficient to directly impact the survival of barnacles during the first month post-settlement. However, in conjunction with a 4-5°C increase in temperature, it appears that significant changes to the biology of these organisms will ensue.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, pigments and biological processes during experiments with coralline alga Corallina sessilis

Previous studies have shown that increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations affect calcification in some planktonic and macroalgal calcifiers due to the changed carbonate chemistry of seawater. However, little is known regarding how calcifying algae respond to solar UV radiation (UVR, UVA+UVB, 280-400 nm). UVR may act synergistically, antagonistically or independently with ocean acidification (high CO2/low pH of seawater) to affect their calcification processes. We cultured the articulated coralline alga Corallina sessilis Yendo at 380 ppmv (low) and 1000 ppmv (high) CO2 levels while exposing the alga to solar radiation treatments with or without UVR. The presence of UVR inhibited the growth, photosynthetic O2evolution and calcification rates by13%, 6% and 3% in the low and by 47%, 20% and 8% in the high CO2 concentrations, respectively, reflecting a synergistic effect of CO2 enrichment with UVR. UVR induced significant decline of pH in the CO2-enriched cultures. The contents of key photosynthetic pigments, chlorophyll a and phycobiliproteins decreased, while UV-absorptivity increased under the highpCO2/low pH condition. Nevertheless, UV-induced inhibition of photosynthesis increased when the ratio of particulate inorganic carbon/particulate organic carbon decreased under the influence of CO2-acidified seawater, suggesting that the calcified layer played a UV-protective role. Both UVA and UVB negatively impacted photosynthesis and calcification, but the inhibition caused by UVB was about 2.5-2.6 times that caused by UVA. The results imply that coralline algae suffer from more damage caused by UVB as they calcify less and less with progressing ocean acidification.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes during experiments with coral Oculina arbuscula, 2010

Anthropogenic elevation of atmospheric pCO2 is predicted to cause the pH of surface seawater to decline by 0.3-0.4 units by 2100 AD, causing a 50% reduction in seawater [CO3] and undersaturation with respect to aragonite in high-latitude surface waters. We investigated the impact of CO2-induced ocean acidification on the temperate scleractinian coral Oculina arbuscula by rearing colonies for 60 days in experimental seawaters bubbled with air-CO2 gas mixtures of 409, 606, 903, and 2,856 ppm pCO2, yielding average aragonite saturation states (Omega aragonite) of 2.6, 2.3, 1.6, and 0.8. Measurement of calcification (via buoyant weighing) and linear extension (relative to a 137Ba/138Ba spike) revealed that skeletal accretion was only minimally impaired by reductions in Omega aragonite from 2.6 to 1.6, although major reductions were observed at 0.8 (undersaturation). Notably, the corals continued accreting new skeletal material even in undersaturated conditions, although at reduced rates. Correlation between rates of linear extension and calcification suggests that reduced calcification under Omega aragonite = 0.8 resulted from reduced aragonite accretion, rather than from localized dissolution. Accretion of pure aragonite under each Omega aragonite discounts the possibility that these corals will begin producing calcite, a less soluble form of CaCO3, as the oceans acidify. The corals' nonlinear response to reduced Omega aragonite and their ability to accrete new skeletal material in undersaturated conditions suggest that they strongly control the biomineralization process. However, our data suggest that a threshold seawater [CO3] exists, below which calcification within this species (and possibly others) becomes impaired. Indeed, the strong negative response of O. arbuscula to Omega aragonite= 0.8 indicates that their response to future pCO2-induced ocean acidification could be both abrupt and severe once the critical Omega aragoniteis reached.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of Emiliania huxleyi (strains RCC1256 and NZEH) during experiments, 2011

With respect to their sensitivity to ocean acidification, calcifiers such as the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi have received special attention, as the process of calcification seems to be particularly sensitive to changes in the marine carbonate system. For E. huxleyi, apparently conflicting results regarding its sensitivity to ocean acidification have been published (Iglesias-Rodriguez et al., 2008a; Riebesell et al., 2000). As possible causes for discrepancies, intra-specific variability and different effects of CO2 manipulation methods, i.e. the manipulation of total alkalinity (TA) or total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), have been discussed. While Langer et al. (2009) demonstrate a high degree of intra-specific variability between strains of E. huxleyi, the question whether different CO2 manipulation methods influence the cellular responses has not been resolved yet. In this study, closed TA as well as open and closed DIC manipulation methods were compared with respect to E. huxleyi's CO2-dependence in growth rate, POC- and PIC-production. The differences in the carbonate chemistry between TA and DIC manipulations were shown not to cause any differences in response patterns, while the latter differed between open and closed DIC manipulation. The two strains investigated showed different sensitivities to acidification of seawater, RCC1256 being more negatively affected in growth rates and PIC production than NZEH.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of Mytilus edulis during experiments, 2011

Ocean acidification (OA) resulting from anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) has already lowered and is predicted to further lower surface ocean pH. There is a particular need to study effects of OA on organisms living in cold-water environments due to the higher solubility of CO2 at lower temperatures. Mussel larvae (Mytilus edulis) and shrimp larvae (Pandalus borealis) were kept under an ocean acidification scenario predicted for the year 2100 (pH 7.6) and compared against identical batches of organisms held under the current oceanic pH of 8.1, which acted as a control. The temperature was held at a constant 10°C in the mussel experiment and at 5°C in the shrimp experiment. There was no marked effect on fertilization success, development time, or abnormality to the D-shell stage, or on feeding of mussel larvae in the low-pH (pH 7.6) treatment. Mytilus edulis larvae were still able to develop a shell in seawater undersaturated with respect to aragonite (a mineral form of CaCO3), but the size of low-pH larvae was significantly smaller than in the control. After 2 mo of exposure the mussels were 28% smaller in the pH 7.6 treatment than in the control. The experiment with Pandalus borealis larvae ran from 1 through 35 days post hatch. Survival of shrimp larvae was not reduced after 5 wk of exposure to pH 7.6, but a significant delay in zoeal progression (development time) was observed.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes during experiments with common cuttlefish Sepia officinalis, 2008

Ocean acidification and associated changes in seawater carbonate chemistry negatively influence calcification processes and depress metabolism in many calcifying marine invertebrates. We present data on the cephalopod mollusc Sepia officinalis, an invertebrate that is capable of not only maintaining calcification, but also growth rates and metabolism when exposed to elevated partial pressures of carbon dioxide (pCO2). During a 6 wk period, juvenile S. officinalis maintained calcification under ~4000 and ~6000 ppm CO2, and grew at the same rate with the same gross growth efficiency as did control animals. They gained approximately 4% body mass daily and increased the mass of their calcified cuttlebone by over 500%. We conclude that active cephalopods possess a certain level of pre-adaptation to long-term increments in carbon dioxide levels. Our general understanding of the mechanistic processes that limit calcification must improve before we can begin to predict what effects future ocean acidification will have on calcifying marine invertebrates.

Health reforms in Latin America: processes and results

Two types of health reforms in Latin America are analysed: one based on insurance and service commodification and the one referred to the unified public systems of progressive governments. Health insurance with explicit service packages has not fulfilled their purposes of universal coverage, equal access to necessary health services and improvement of health conditions but has opened health as a field of profit making for insurance companies and private health providers. The national health services as a state obligation have developed territorialized health services and widened substantially timely access to the majority of the population. The adoption of an integrated and wide social policy has an impact on population well fare. It faces some problems derived from the old health systems and the power of the insurance and medical complex.

Doing Relationships and Sexuality Education with Young People in State Care

Background: Existing literature indicates that young people in state carehave particular sexual health needs that include addressing their social andemotional well-being, yet little has been published as to how thesecomponents of sex education are actually delivered by service-providers.Objective: To analyse the processes involved in delivering relationship andsexuality education to young people in state care from the perspectives ofa sample of service-providers with a role in sexual health care delivery.Design: Qualitative methodological strategy.Setting: Service-delivery sites at urban and rural locations in Ireland.Method: Twenty-two service-providers were interviewed in depth, and datawere analysed using a qualitative analytical strategy resembling modifiedanalytical induction.Findings: Participants proffered their perceptions and examples of theirpractices of sex education in relation to the following themes: (1)acknowledging the multi-dimensional nature of sexual health in the case ofyoung people in care; (2) personal and emotional development educationto address poor self-esteem, emotional disconnectedness and an inabilityto recognise and express emotions; (3) social skills’ education as part of arepertoire of competencies needed to negotiate relationships and safer sex;(4) the application of positive social skills embedded in everyday socialsituations; and (5) factual sexuality education.Conclusion: Insights into service providers’ perceptions of the multidimensionalnature of the sexual health needs of young people in statecare, and the ways in which these service-providers justified their practicemake visible the complex character of sex education and the degree of skillrequired to deliver it to those in state care.