949 resultados para [JEL:E4] Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - Money and Interest Rates
Resumo:
Marine ecosystems of the Southern Ocean are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) is the key pelagic species of the region and its largest fishery resource. There is therefore concern about the combined effects of climate change, ocean acidification and an expanding fishery on krill and ultimately, their dependent predators-whales, seals and penguins. However, little is known about the sensitivity of krill to ocean acidification. Juvenile and adult krill are already exposed to variable seawater carbonate chemistry because they occupy a range of habitats and migrate both vertically and horizontally on a daily and seasonal basis. Moreover, krill eggs sink from the surface to hatch at 700-1,000 m, where the carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) in sea water is already greater than it is in the atmosphere. Krill eggs sink passively and so cannot avoid these conditions. Here we describe the sensitivity of krill egg hatch rates to increased CO2, and present a circumpolar risk map of krill hatching success under projected pCO2 levels. We find that important krill habitats of the Weddell Sea and the Haakon VII Sea to the east are likely to become high-risk areas for krill recruitment within a century. Furthermore, unless CO2 emissions are mitigated, the Southern Ocean krill population could collapse by 2300 with dire consequences for the entire ecosystem.
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Hole 887B of the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) comprises a 44 m (750 kyr) long continuous section recovered from the Patton-Murray Rise, an elevated plateau that is largely isolated from turbidite deposition. The Patton-Murray area is centered under the Alaska Gyre, a region characterized by the domal upwelling of nutrient-rich waters. Marked increases in productivity and rapid settling of biogenic matter are suggested throughout the section by the episodic accumulation of diatomaceous oozes up to ~1 m thick that are accompanied by barium enrichments. Significant delta13Corg maxima in the major diatomaceous bands suggest that mixedlayer [CO2(aq)] may have been drawn down significantly during some of the productivity events. The episodes of enhanced productivity at Site 887 occur synchronously with short-lived minima in planktonic foram delta18O, suggesting a direct link to low salinity, or less likely, warming, events in the Gulf of Alaska. There is no obvious explanation for the events, but they may be related to seasonal incursions of meltwater from Alaska. We speculate that episodic input of meltwater- or dust-borne iron from Asian or Alaskan sources may have promoted the extraordinary diatom production events recorded in the sedimentary record.
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Invasive species allow an investigation of trait retention and adaptations after exposure to new habitats. Recent work on corals from the Gulf of Aqaba (GoA) shows that tolerance to high temperature persists thousands of years after invasion, without any apparent adaptive advantage. Here we test whether thermal tolerance retention also occurs in another symbiont-bearing calcifying organism. To this end, we investigate the thermal tolerance of the benthic foraminifera Amphistegina lobifera from the GoA (29° 30.14167 N 34° 55.085 E) and compare it to a recent "Lessepsian invader population" from the Eastern Mediterranean (EaM) (32° 37.386 N, 34°55.169 E). We first established that the studied populations are genetically homogenous but distinct from a population in Australia, and that they contain a similar consortium of diatom symbionts, confirming their recent common descent. Thereafter, we exposed specimens from GoA and EaM to elevated temperatures for three weeks and monitored survivorship, growth rates and photophysiology. Both populations exhibited a similar pattern of temperature tolerance. A consistent reduction of photosynthetic dark yields was observed at 34°C and reduced growth was observed at 32°C. The apparent tolerance to sustained exposure to high temperature cannot have a direct adaptive importance, as peak summer temperatures in both locations remain <32°C. Instead, it seems that in the studied foraminifera tolerance to high temperature is a conservative trait and the EaM population retained this trait since its recent invasion. Such pre-adaptation to higher temperatures confers A. lobifera a clear adaptive advantage in shallow and episodically high temperature environments in the Mediterranean under further warming.
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This study includes the first information on the combined effect of low pH and raised temperature on egg production rate (EP), hatching success (HS), excretion and respiration of the Mediterranean copepod Acartia clausi. Adult individuals of A. clausi and fresh surface seawater were collected at a coastal station in Saronikos Gulf during April 2012. Four different conditions were applied: two different pH levels (present: 8.09 and future: 7.83) at two temperature values (present: 16°C and present+4 °C= 20°C). EP and HS success decreased significantly over the duration of exposure at future pH at both temperature conditions. However, the analysis of the combined effect of pH, T, chlorophyll a and the duration of the experiments on EP and HS revealed that ocean acidification had no discernible effect, whereas warming; food and the duration of exposure were more significant for the reproductive output of A. clausi. Temperature appeared to have a positive effect on respiration and excretion. Acidification had no clear effect on respiration, but a negative effect on the A. clausi excretion was observed. Acidification and warming resulted in the increase of the excretion rate and the increase was higher than that observed by warming only. Our findings showed that a direct effect of ocean acidification on copepod's vital rates was not obvious, except maybe in the case of excretion. Therefore, the combination of acidification with the ambient oligotrophic conditions and the warming could result in species being less able to allocate resources for coping with multiple stressors.
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To study the effects of temperature, salinity, and life processes (growth rates, size, metabolic effects, and physiological/genetic effects) on newly precipitated bivalve carbonate, we quantified shell isotopic chemistry of adult and juvenile animals of the intertidal bivalve Mytilus edulis (Blue mussel) collected alive from western Greenland and the central Gulf of Maine and cultured them under controlled conditions. Data for juvenile and adult M. edulis bivalves cultured in this study, and previously by Wanamaker et al. (2006, doi:10.1029/2005GC001189), yielded statistically identical paleotemperature relationships. On the basis of these experiments we have developed a species-specific paleotemperature equation for the bivalve M. edulis [T °C = 16.28 (±0.10) - 4.57 (±0.15) {d18Oc VPBD - d18Ow VSMOW} + 0.06 (±0.06) {d18Oc VPBD - d18Ow VSMOW}**2; r**2 = 0.99; N = 323; p < 0.0001]. Compared to the Kim and O'Neil (1997) inorganic calcite equation, M. edulis deposits its shell in isotope equilibrium (d18Ocalcite) with ambient water. Carbon isotopes (d13Ccalcite) from sampled shells were substantially more negative than predicted values, indicating an uptake of metabolic carbon into shell carbonate, and d13Ccalcite disequilibrium increased with increasing salinity. Sampled shells of M. edulis showed no significant trends in d18Ocalcite based on size, cultured growth rates, or geographic collection location, suggesting that vital effects do not affect d18Ocalcite in M. edulis. The broad modern and paleogeographic distribution of this bivalve, its abundance during the Holocene, and the lack of an intraspecies physiologic isotope effect demonstrated here make it an ideal nearshore paleoceanographic proxy throughout much of the North Atlantic Ocean.
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Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) recorded by alkenones and oxygen isotopes in the Alboran basin are used here to describe, at an unprecedented fine temporal resolution, the present interglaciation (PIG, initiated at 11.7 ka BP), the last interglaciation (LIG, onset approximately at 129 ka) and respective deglaciations. Similarities and dissimilarities in the progression of these periods are reviewed in comparison with ice cores and stalagmites. Cold spells coeval with the Heinrich events (H) described in the North Atlantic include multi-decadal scale oscillations not previously obvious (up to 4 °C in less than eight centuries within the stadials associated with H1 and H11, ca 133 ka and 17 ka respectively). These abrupt oscillations precede the accumulation of organic rich layers deposited when perihelion moves from alignment with NH spring equinox to the summer solstice, a reference for deglaciations. Events observed during the last deglaciation at 17 ka, 14.8 ka and 11.7 ka are reminiscent of events occurred during the penultimate deglaciation at ca 136 ka, 132 ka and 129 ka, respectively. The SST trend during the PIG is no more than 2 °C (from 20 °C to 18 °C; up to ?0.2 °C/ka). The trend is steeper during the LIG, i.e. up to a 5 °C change from the early interglaciation to immediately before the glacial inception (from 23 °C to 18 °C; up to -0.4 °C/ka). Events are superimposed upon a long term trend towards colder SSTs, beginning with SST maxima followed by temperate periods until perihelion aligned with the NH autumn equinox (before ca 5.3 ka for the PIG and 121 ka for the LIG). A cold spell of around eight centuries at 2.8 ka during the PIG was possibly mimicked during the LIG at ca 118 ka by a SST fall of around 1 °C in a millennium. These events led interglacial SST to stabilise at around 18 °C. The glacial inception, barely evident at the beginning ca 115 ka (North Atlantic event C25, after perihelion passage in the NH winter solstice), culminated with a SST drop of at least 2 °C in two millennia (event C24, ca 111 ka). The Little Ice Age (0.7 ka) also occurred after the latest perihelion passage in the NH winter solstice and could be an example of how a glacial pre-inception event following an interglaciation might be.
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Context Randomised controlled trials in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have shown that regular exercise, even without calorie restriction, reduces liver steatosis. A previous study has shown that 16 weeks supervised exercise training in NAFLD did not affect total VLDL kinetics. Objective To determine the effect of exercise training on intrahepatocellular fat (IHCL) and the kinetics of large triglyceride-(TG)-rich VLDL1 and smaller denser VLDL2 which has a lower TG content. Design A 16 week randomised controlled trial. Patients 27 sedentary patients with NAFLD. Intervention Supervised exercise with moderate-intensity aerobic exercise or conventional lifestyle advice (control). Main outcome Very low density lipoprotein1 (VLDL1) and VLDL2-TG and apolipoproteinB (apoB) kinetics investigated using stable isotopes before and after the intervention. Results In the exercise group VO2max increased by 31±6% (mean±SEM) and IHCL decreased from 19.6% (14.8, 30.0) to 8.9% (5.4, 17.3) (median (IQR)) with no significant change in VO2max or IHCL in the control group (change between groups p<0.001 and p=0.02, respectively). Exercise training increased VLDL1-TG and apoB fractional catabolic rates, a measure of clearance, (change between groups p=0.02 and p=0.01, respectively), and VLDL1-apoB production rate (change between groups p=0.006), with no change in VLDL1 -TG production rate. Plasma TG did not change in either group. Conclusion An increased clearance of VLDL1 may contribute to the significant decrease in liver fat following 16 weeks of exercise in NAFLD. A longer duration or higher intensity exercise interventions may be needed to lower plasma TG and VLDL production rate.
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Energy levels and radiative rates (. A-values) for transitions in Cr-like Cu VI and Zn VII are reported. These data are determined in the quasi-relativistic approach (QR), by employing a very large configuration interaction (CI) expansion which is highly important for these ions. No radiative rates are available in the literature to compare with our results, but our calculated energies are in close agreement with those compiled by NIST and other available theoretical data, for a majority of the levels. The A-values (and resultant lifetimes) are listed for all significantly contributing E1, E2 and M1 radiative transitions among the energetically lowest 322 levels of each ion.
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We report calculations of energy levels and radiative rates (A-values) for transitions in Cr-like Co IV and Ni V. The quasi-relativistic Hartree-Fock (QRHF) code is adopted for calculating the data although grasp (general-purpose relativistic atomic structure package) and flexible atomic code (fac) have also been employed for comparison purposes. No radiative rates are available in the literature to compare with our results, but our calculated energies are in close agreement with those compiled by NIST for a majority of the levels. However, there are discrepancies for a few levels of up to 3%. The A-values are listed for all significantly contributing E1, E2 and M1 transitions, and the corresponding lifetimes reported, although unfortunately no previous theoretical or experimental results exist to compare with our data.
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[EN] Between 2004 and 2007, we studied density, habitat features and breeding parameters of the osprey (Pandion haliaetus) population in Boa Vista Island (Cape Verde). A total of 79 nest structures were identified, 37 of which were occupied for at least 1 year during the study period. The osprey population ranged between 14 and 18 pairs, and the mean density and distance between neighbouring occupied nests were 2.58 pairs per 100 km2 and 3089 m, respectively. Occupied nests were found to be significantly further from the coastline and roads than unoccupied nests, but the distances from villages were similar.
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Future warming is predicted to shift the Earth system into a mode with progressive increase and vigour of extreme climate events possibly stimulating other mechanisms that invigorate global warming. This study provides new data and modelling investigating climatic consequences and biogeochemical feedbacks that happened in a warmer world ~112 Myr ago. Our study focuses on the Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1b and explores how the Earth system responded to a moderate ~25,000 yr lasting climate perturbation that is modelled to be less than 1 °C in global average temperature. Using a new chronological model for OAE 1b we present high-resolution elemental and bulk carbon isotope records from DSDP Site 545 from Mazagan Plateau off NW Africa and combine this information with a coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. The simulations suggest that a perturbation at the onset of OAE 1b caused almost instantaneous warming of the atmosphere on the order of 0.3 °C followed by a longer (~45,000 yr) period of ~0.8 °C cooling. The marine records from DSDP Site 545 support that these moderate swings in global climate had immediate consequences for African continental supply of mineral matter and nutrients (phosphorous), subsequent oxygen availability, and organic carbon burial in the eastern subtropical Atlantic, however, without turning the ocean anoxic. The match between modelling results and stratigraphic isotopic data support previous studies [summarized in Jenkyns 2003, doi:10.1098/rsta.2003.1240] in that methane emission from marine hydrates, albeit moderate in dimension, may have been the trigger for OAE 1b, though we can not finally rule out alternative mechanisms. Following the hydrate mechanism a total of 1.15 * 10**18 g methane carbon (delta13C=-60 ?), equivalent to about 10% to the total modern gas hydrate inventory, generated the delta13Ccarb profile recorded in the section. Modelling suggests a combination of moderate-scale methane pulses supplemented by continuous methane emission at elevated levels over ~25,000 yr. The proposed mechanism, though difficult to finally confirm in the geological past, is arguably more likely to occur in a warmer world and apparently perturbs global climate and ocean chemistry almost instantaneously. This study shows that, once set-off, this mechanism can maintain Earth's climate in a perturbed mode over geological time leading to pronounced changes in regional climate.
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Résumé : Ce document examine l'effet de la dette publique et du développement monétaire étranger (taux de change et taux d'intérêt étranger) sur la demande de monnaie de long-terme. Le déficit budgétaire est utilisé comme mesure de la dette publique. Cette étude est menée sur cinq pays industrialisés: le Canada, les États-Unis, l'Allemagne, le Royaume-Uni et la France. Le modèle multivarié de cointégration de Johansen & Juselius (1990) est utilisé pour établir le lien entre ces trois variables et la demande de monnaie. Ce modèle examine indirectement deux effets: les effets du déficit budgétaire sur le taux d'intérêt et du développement monétaire étranger sur le taux d'intérêt, à travers la demande de monnaie. L'évidence d'une relation de cointégration entre la demande de monnaie et les dites variables est vérifiée pour la plupart de ces pays. Le test d'exclusion des variables de la relation de long-terme nous révèle que toutes ces variables entrent de façon significative dans la relation de cointégration. Ces résultats suggèrent donc aux autorités monétaires, l'importance de tenir compte à la fois du déficit bugétaire et du développement monétaire étranger dans la formulation de la politique monétaire.||Abstract : This paper examines the impact of both public debt and foreign monetary developments (exchange rate and interest rate) on the long-run money demand. The budget déficit is used as a measure of public debt. Five industrial countries are considered, Canada, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and France. The multivariate cointegration model of Johansen & Juselius (1990) is used to establish the relationship between this tree variables and the money demand. This model indirectly examines two effects, the effect of budget déficits on interest rates and the effect of foreign monetary developments on the interest rates, both through money demand. Evidence of long-run relationship between the money demand and the defined variables are found for almost every country. The long-run exclusion test shows that ail these variables significantly enter into the cointegration relation. This suggests that, in formulating monetary policies, policy makers should take into account the influence of both budget déficit and foreign monetary developments on the money demand.
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Coral reefs worldwide are affected by increasing dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and organic carbon (DOC) concentrations due to ocean acidification (OA) and coastal eutrophication. These two stressors can occur simultaneously, particularly in near-shore reef environments with increasing anthropogenic pressure. However, experimental studies on how elevated DIC and DOC interact are scarce and fundamental to understanding potential synergistic effects and foreseeing future changes in coral reef function. Using an open mesocosm experiment, the present study investigated the impact of elevated DIC (pHNBS: 8.2 and 7.8; pCO2: 377 and 1076 μatm) and DOC (added as 833 μmol L-1 of glucose) on calcification and photosynthesis rates of two common calcifying green algae, Halimeda incrassata and Udotea flabellum, in a shallow reef environment. Our results revealed that under elevated DIC, algal photosynthesis decreased similarly for both species, but calcification was more affected in H. incrassata, which also showed carbonate dissolution rates. Elevated DOC reduced photosynthesis and calcification rates in H. incrassata, while in U. flabellum photosynthesis was unaffected and thalus calcification was severely impaired. The combined treatment showed an antagonistic effect of elevated DIC and DOC on the photosynthesis and calcification rates of H. incrassata, and an additive effect in U. flabellum. We conclude that the dominant sand dweller H. incrassata is more negatively affected by both DIC and DOC enrichments, but that their impact could be mitigated when they occur simultaneously. In contrast, U. flabellum can be less affected in coastal eutrophic waters by elevated DIC, but its contribution to reef carbonate sediment production could be further reduced. Accordingly, while the capacity of environmental eutrophication to exacerbate the impact of OA on algal-derived carbonate sand production seems to be species-specific, significant reductions can be expected under future OA scenarios, with important consequences for beach erosion and coastal sediment dynamics.