Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Electrical switching behavior of amorphous Ge15Te85 Si--x(x) thin films with phase change memory applications

Amorphous Ge15Te85-xSix thin film switching devices (1 <= x <= 6) have been deposited in sandwich geometry, on glass substrates with aluminum electrodes, by flash evaporation technique. These devices exhibit memory type electrical switching, like bulk Ge15Te85-xSix glasses. However, unlike the bulk glasses, a-Ge15Te85-xSix films exhibit a smooth electrical switching behavior. The electrical switching fields of a-Ge15Te85-xSix thin film samples are also comparable with other chalcogenide samples used in memory applications. The switching fields of a-Ge15Te85-xSix films have been found to increase with increasing Si concentration. Also, the optical band gap of a-Ge15Te85-xSix films is found to increase with Si content. The observed results have been understood on the basis of increase in network connectivity and rigidity with Si addition. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Missing (in-situ) snow cover data hampers climate change and runoff studies in the Greater Himalayas

The Himalayas are presently holding the largest ice masses outside the polar regions and thus (temporarily) store important freshwater resources. In contrast to the contemplation of glaciers, the role of runoff from snow cover has received comparably little attention in the past, although (i) its contribution is thought to be at least equally or even more important than that of ice melt in many Himalayan catchments and (ii) climate change is expected to have widespread and significant consequences on snowmelt runoff. Here, we show that change assessment of snowmelt runoff and its timing is not as straightforward as often postulated, mainly as larger partial pressure of H2O, CO2, CH4, and other greenhouse gases might increase net long-wave input for snowmelt quite significantly in a future atmosphere. In addition, changes in the short-wave energy balance such as the pollution of the snow cover through black carbon or the sensible or latent heat contribution to snowmelt are likely to alter future snowmelt and runoff characteristics as well. For the assessment of snow cover extent and depletion, but also for its monitoring over the extremely large areas of the Himalayas, remote sensing has been used in the past and is likely to become even more important in the future. However, for the calibration and validation of remotely-sensed data, and even-more so in light of possible changes in snow-cover energy balance, we strongly call for more in-situ measurements across the Himalayas, in particular for daily data on new snow and snow cover water equivalent, or the respective energy balance components. Moreover, data should be made accessible to the scientific community, so that the latter can more accurately estimate climate change impacts on Himalayan snow cover and possible consequences thereof on runoff. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Laser- induced optical properties change in Sb10S40Se50 chalcogenide thin films: An investigation through FTIR and XPS measurements

Chalcogenide glasses are interesting materials for their infrared transmitting properties and photo-induced effects. This paper reports the influence of light on the optical properties of Sb10S40Se50 thin films. The amorphous nature and chemical composition of the deposited film was studied by X-ray diffraction and energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDAX). The optical constants, i.e., refractive index, extinction coefficient, and optical band gap as well as film thickness are determined from the measured transmission spectra using the Swanepoel method. The dispersion of the refractive index is discussed in terms of the single-oscillator Wemple-DiDomenico model. The dispersion energy parameter was found to be less for the laser-irradiated film, which indicates the laser-irradiated film is more microstructurally disordered as compared to the as-prepared film. It is observed that laser-irradiation of the films leads to decrease in optical band gap (photo-darkening) while increase in refractive index. The decrease in the optical band gap is explained on the basis of change in nature of films due to chemical disorderness and the increase in refractive index may be due to the densification of films with improved grain structure because of microstructural disorderness in the films. The optical changes are supported by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy data. (C) 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Tuning nuclearity of clusters by positional change of functional group: Synthesis of polynuclear clusters, crystal structures and magnetic properties

Four neutral polynuclear magnetic clusters, (Mn6Mn2Na2I)-Mn-III-Na-II(N-3)(8)(mu(1)-O)(2)(L-1)(6)(CH3OH)(2)] (1), (Mn6Na2I)-Na-III(N-3)(4)(mu(4)-O)(2)(L-2)(4)(CH3COO)(4)] (2), Ni-5(II)(N-3)(4)(HL1)(4)(HCOO)(2)(CH3OH)(2)(H2O)(2)]center dot 2CH(3)OH (3) and (Ni4Na2I)-Na-II(N-3)(4)(HL2)(6)]center dot 2CH(3)OH (4) have been synthesized using tetradentate ligands H2L1-2 along with azide as a co-ligand. H2L1-2 are the products formed in situ upon condensation of 2-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzaldehyde with 1-aminopropan-2-ol and 1-aminopropan-3-ol, respectively. Single crystal X-ray diffraction and bond valence sum calculation showed that complex 1 is composed of both Mn-III and Mn-II. Complex 3 contains coordinated formate, which was formed upon in situ oxidation of methanol. The magnetic study over a wide range of temperatures of all the complexes (1-4) showed that 1 and 2 are antiferromagnetic whereas other two (3-4) are predominantly ferromagnetic. The estimated ground states of the complexes are S approximate to 3(1), S = 4(2), S = 5(3) and S approximate to 4(4), respectively. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change scenarios of surface solar radiation in data sparse regions: a case study in Malaprabha River Basin, India

A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment. However, there are no clear guidelines available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study, namely: Case 1: SR is measured, Case 2: SR is measured but sparse and Case 3: SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the simulated large-scale information of global climate models to a local scale ( measurements). In Case 2, the SR was first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, and then future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3: the SR was first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time period using complete or sparse measured records of SR from which SR at the local scale was estimated. Finally, the future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. The lack of observed SR data, especially in developing countries, has hindered various climate change impact studies. Hence, this was further elaborated by applying the Case 3 methodology to a semi-arid Malaprabha reservoir catchment in southern India. A support vector machine was used in downscaling SR. Future monthly scenarios of SR were estimated from simulations of third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT). Results indicated a projected decrease of 0.4 to 12.2 W m(-2) yr(-1) in SR during the period 2001-2100 across the 4 scenarios. SR was calculated using the modified Hargreaves method. The decreasing trends for the future were in agreement with the simulations of SR from the CGCM3 model directly obtained for the 4 scenarios.

Loss of frugivore seed dispersal services under climate change

The capacity of species to track shifting climates into the future will strongly influence outcomes for biodiversity under a rapidly changing climate. However, we know remarkably little about the dispersal abilities of most species and how these may be influenced by climate change. Here we show that climate change is projected to substantially reduce the seed dispersal services provided by frugivorous vertebrates in rainforests across the Australian Wet Tropics. Our model projections show reductions in both median and long-distance seed dispersal, which may markedly reduce the capacity of many rainforest plant species to track shifts in suitable habitat under climate change. However, our analyses suggest that active management to maintain the abundances of a small set of important frugivores under climate change could markedly reduce the projected loss of seed dispersal services and facilitate shifting distributions of rainforest plant species.

Temporal variability of forest communities: empirical estimates of population change in 4000 tree species

Long-term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6-28years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross-site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species-rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role.

Compositional dependence properties change in S40Se60-x,Sb-x alloys

Bulk samples of S40Se60,Sb-x (with x=10, 20, 30 and 40 at. %) were prepared from high purity chemicals by melt quenching technique. The samples compositions were confirmed by using energy dispersive analysis of X-rays. X-ray diffraction studies revealed that all the samples have poly-crystalline phase. The variation in optical properties with compositional has been investigated by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopy. The optical band gap of the thin films is found to be decreased with composition. Increasing Sb content was found to affect the structural and optical properties of bulk samples. The intensity of core level spectra changes with the addition of Sb clearly interprets the optical properties change due to compositional variation. The Raman shift and new peak formation in these samples clearly show the structural modifications due to Sb addition.

Return levels of hydrologic droughts under climate change

Developments in the statistical extreme value theory, which allow non-stationary modeling of changes in the frequency and severity of extremes, are explored to analyze changes in return levels of droughts for the Colorado River. The transient future return levels (conditional quantiles) derived from regional drought projections using appropriate extreme value models, are compared with those from observed naturalized streamflows. The time of detection is computed as the time at which significant differences exist between the observed and future extreme drought levels, accounting for the uncertainties in their estimates. Projections from multiple climate model-scenario combinations are considered; no uniform pattern of changes in drought quantiles is observed across all the projections. While some projections indicate shifting to another stationary regime, for many projections which are found to be non-stationary, detection of change in tail quantiles of droughts occurs within the 21st century with no unanimity in the time of detection. Earlier detection is observed in droughts levels of higher probability of exceedance. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. Within very large plots (median size 25ha), all stems 1cm diameter are identified to species, mapped, and regularly recensused according to standardized protocols. CTFS-ForestGEO spans 25 degrees S-61 degrees N latitude, is generally representative of the range of bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic conditions experienced by forests worldwide, and is the only forest monitoring network that applies a standardized protocol to each of the world's major forest biomes. Supplementary standardized measurements at subsets of the sites provide additional information on plants, animals, and ecosystem and environmental variables. CTFS-ForestGEO sites are experiencing multifaceted anthropogenic global change pressures including warming (average 0.61 degrees C), changes in precipitation (up to +/- 30% change), atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds (up to 3.8g Nm(-2)yr(-1) and 3.1g Sm(-2)yr(-1)), and forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape (up to 88% reduced tree cover within 5km). The broad suite of measurements made at CTFS-ForestGEO sites makes it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. Ongoing research across the CTFS-ForestGEO network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in an era of global change.

Performance Analysis of Heat Sinks With Phase-Change Materials Subjected to Transient and Cyclic Heating

Phase-change cooling technique is a suitable method for thermal management of electronic equipment subjected to transient or cyclic heat loads. The thermal performance of a phase-change based heat sink under cyclic heat load depends on several design parameters, namely, applied heat flux, cooling heat transfer coefficient, thermophysical properties of phase-change materials (PCMs), and physical dimensions of phase-change storage system during melting and freezing processes. A one-dimensional conduction heat transfer model is formulated to evaluate the effectiveness of preliminary design of practical PCM-based energy storage units. In this model, the phase-change process of the PCM is divided into melting and solidification subprocesses, for which separate equations are written. The equations are solved sequentially and an explicit closed-form solution is obtained. The efficacy of analytical model is estimated by comparing with a finite-volume-based numerical solution for both transient and cyclic heat loads.

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate change and management responses in tropical forests depend on complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal

AimBiodiversity outcomes under global change will be influenced by a range of ecological processes, and these processes are increasingly being considered in models of biodiversity change. However, the level of model complexity required to adequately account for important ecological processes often remains unclear. Here we assess how considering realistically complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal influences the projected climate change outcomes for plant diversity in the Australian Wet Tropics (all 4313 species). LocationThe Australian Wet Tropics, Queensland, Australia. MethodsWe applied a metacommunity model (M-SET) to project biodiversity outcomes using seed dispersal models that varied in complexity, combined with alternative climate change scenarios and habitat restoration scenarios. ResultsWe found that the complexity of the dispersal model had a larger effect on projected biodiversity outcomes than did dramatically different climate change scenarios. Applying a simple dispersal model that ignored spatial, temporal and taxonomic variation due to frugivore-mediated seed dispersal underestimated the reduction in the area of occurrence of plant species under climate change and overestimated the loss of diversity in fragmented tropical forest remnants. The complexity of the dispersal model also changed the habitat restoration approach identified as the best for promoting persistence of biodiversity under climate change. Main conclusionsThe consideration of complex processes such as frugivore-mediated seed dispersal can make an important difference in how we understand and respond to the influence of climate change on biodiversity.

Structural crossover from nonmodulated to long-period modulated tetragonal phase and anomalous change in ferroelectric properties in the lead-free piezoelectric Na1/2Bi1/2TiO3-BaTiO3

The highly complex structure-property interrelationship in the lead-free piezoelectric (x) Na1/2Bi1/2TiO3 - (1 - x) BaTiO3 is a subject of considerable contemporary debate. Using comprehensive x-ray, neutron diffraction, dielectric, and ferroelectric studies, we have shown the existence of a new criticality in this system at x = 0.80, i.e., well within the conventional tetragonal phase field. This criticality manifests as a nonmonotonic variation of the tetragonality and coercivity and is shown to be associated with a crossover from a nonmodulated tetragonal phase (for x < 0.8) to a long-period modulated tetragonal phase (for x > 0.80). It is shown that the stabilization of long-period modulation introduces a characteristic depolarization temperature in the system. While differing qualitatively from the two-phase model often suggested for the critical compositions of this system, our results support the view with regard to the tendency in perovskites to stabilize long-period modulated structures as a result of complex interplay of antiferrodistortive modes Bellaiche and Iniguez, Phys. Rev. B 88, 014104 ( 2013); Prosandeev, Wang, Ren, Iniguez, ands Bellaiche, Adv. Funct. Mater. 23, 234 (2013)].