Winter precipitation trends for two selected European regions over the last 500 years and their possible dynamical background

We analyse winter (DJF) precipitation over the last 500 years on trends using a spatially and temporally highly resolved gridded multi-proxy reconstruction over European land areas. The trends are detected applying trend matrices, and the significance is assessed with the Mann–Kendall-trend test. Results are presented for southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco, two regions that show high reconstruction skill over the entire period. The absolute trend values found in the second part of the 20th century are unprecedented over the last 500 years in both regions. During the period 1715–1765, the precipitation trends were most pronounced in southwestern Norway as well as southern Spain/northern Morocco, with first a distinct negative trend followed by a positive countertrend of similar strength. Relating the precipitation time series to variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the solar irradiance using running correlations revealed a couple of instationarities. Nevertheless, it appears that the NAO is responsible in both regions for most of the significant winter precipitation trends during the earlier centuries as well as during recent decades. Some of the significant winter precipitation trends over southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco might be related to changes in the solar irradiance.

Global warming in an independent record of the past 130 years

The thermometer-based global surface temperature time series (GST) commands a prominent role in the evidence for global warming, yet this record has considerable uncertainty. An independent record with better geographic coverage would be valuable in understanding recent change in the context of natural variability. We compiled the Paleo Index (PI) from 173 temperature-sensitive proxy time series (corals, ice cores, speleothems, lake and ocean sediments, historical documents). Each series was normalized to produce index values of change relative to a 1901–2000 base period; the index values were then averaged. From 1880 to 1995, the index trends significantly upward, similar to the GST. Smaller-scale aspects of the GST including two warming trends and a warm interval during the 1940s are also observed in the PI. The PI extends to 1730 with 67 records. The upward trend appears to begin in the early 19th century but the year-to-year variability is large and the 1730–1929 trend is small.

Modeling the stratospheric warming following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption: uncertainties in aerosol extinctions

In terms of atmospheric impact, the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (1991) is the best characterized large eruption on record. We investigate here the model-derived stratospheric warming following the Pinatubo eruption as derived from SAGE II extinction data including recent improvements in the processing algorithm. This method, termed SAGE_4λ, makes use of the four wavelengths (385, 452, 525 and 1024 nm) of the SAGE II data when available, and uses a data-filling procedure in the opacity-induced "gap" regions. Using SAGE_4λ, we derived aerosol size distributions that properly reproduce extinction coefficients also at much longer wavelengths. This provides a good basis for calculating the absorption of terrestrial infrared radiation and the resulting stratospheric heating. However, we also show that the use of this data set in a global chemistry–climate model (CCM) still leads to stronger aerosol-induced stratospheric heating than observed, with temperatures partly even higher than the already too high values found by many models in recent general circulation model (GCM) and CCM intercomparisons. This suggests that the overestimation of the stratospheric warming after the Pinatubo eruption may not be ascribed to an insufficient observational database but instead to using outdated data sets, to deficiencies in the implementation of the forcing data, or to radiative or dynamical model artifacts. Conversely, the SAGE_4λ approach reduces the infrared absorption in the tropical tropopause region, resulting in a significantly better agreement with the post-volcanic temperature record at these altitudes.

Efficacy of Grazing Stockpiled Perennial Forages for Winter Maintenance of Beef Cows

In a three year study, wintering systems utilizing the grazing of stockpiled perennial hay crop forages or corn crop residues were compared to maintaining cows in a drylot. In the summer of 1992, two cuttings of hay were harvested (June 22 and August 2) from three 10-acre fields containing “Johnstone” endophyte-free tall fescue and “Spreador II” alfalfa, and one cutting of hay was harvested from three 10- acre fields of smooth brome grass. “Arlington” red clover was frost-seeded into the smooth bromegrass fields in 1993 and into tall fescue-alfalfa and smooth bromegrass fields into 1994. Two cuttings of hay were harvested from all fields in subsequent years, and three-year average hay yields for tall fescue-alfalfa and smooth bromegrass-red clover were 4,336 and 3,481 pounds per acre, respectively. Regrowth of the forage following the August hay harvest of each year was accumulated for winter grazing. Following a killing frost in each year, two fields of each stockpiled forage were stocked with cows in midgestation at two acres per cow. Two 10-acre fields of corn crop residues were also stocked at two acres per cow, following the grain harvest. Mean dry matter forage yields at the initiation of grazing were 1,853, 2,173 and 5,797 pounds per acre for fields containing tall fescue-alfalfa, smooth bromegrass-red clover, and cornstalks, respectively. A drylot was stocked with 18 cows in 1992 and 1993 and 10 cows in 1994. All cows were fed hay as necessary to maintain a body condition score of five. During grazing, mean losses of organic matter were -6.4, -7.6, and -10.7 pounds per acre per cow from tall fescue-alfalfa, smooth bromegrass-red clover, and cornstalk fields. Average organic matter loss rates from stockpiled forages due to weathering alone were equal to only 30% of the weathering losses of the corn crop residues. In vitro digestibility of both stockpiled forages and cornstalks decreased at equal rates during grazing each year, with respective annual loss rates of .14, .08, and .06% per day. Cows grazing corn crop residues required an average of 1,321 pounds per cow less hay than cows maintained in the drylot to maintain equivalent body condition during the grazing season. Cows grazing tall fescue-alfalfa or smooth bromegrass-red clover had body weight gains and condition score changes equal to cows maintained in a drylot but required 64% and 62% less harvested hay than cows in the drylot during the grazing season. Over the entire stored forage cows grazing tall fescue-alfalfa and smooth bromegrass-red clover required an average of 2,390 and 2,337 pounds per cow less than those maintained in the drylot. Because less hay was needed to maintain cows grazing stockpiled forages, average annual excesses of 5,629 and 3,868 pounds of hay dry matter per cow remained in the stockpiled tall fescue-alfalfa and smooth bromegrass-red clover systems.

Evaluation of a Year-Round Grazing System: Winter Progress Report

The winter component of a year-round grazing system involving grazing of corn crop residues followed by grazing stockpiled grass-legume forages was compared at the McNay Research Farm with that of the winter component of a minimal land system that maintained cows in drylot. In the summers of 1995 and 1996, two and one cuttings of hay per year were harvested from two 15-acre fields containing “Johnston” low endophtye tall fescue and red clover. Two cuttings of hay in 1995 and one cutting in 1996 were harvested from two 15-acre fields of smooth bromegrass and red clover. Hay yields were 4,236 and 4,600 pounds of dry matter per acre for the tall fescue-red clover in 1995 and 1996, and 2,239 and 2,300 pounds of dry matter per acre for the smooth bromegrass-red clover in 1995 and 1996. Following grain harvest, four 7.5-acre fields containing corn crop residues were stocked with cows at midgestation at an allowance of 1.5 acres per cow. Forage yields at the initiation of corn crop grazing in 1995 and 1996 were 3,757 and 3,551 pounds of dry matter per acre for corn crop residues. Stockpiled forage yields were 1,748 and 2,912 pounds of dry matter for tall fescue-red clover and 1,880 and 2,187 pounds for smooth bromegrass-red clover. Corn crop residues and stockpiled forages were grazed in a strip stocking system. For comparison, 20 cows in 1995 and 16 cows in 1996 were placed in two drylots simultaneously with initiation of corn crop grazing, where they remained throughout the winter and spring grazing periods. Cows maintained in drylots or grazing corn crop residue and stockpiled forages were supplemented with hay as large round bales to maintain a body condition score of five. In both years, no seasonal differences in body weight and body condition score were observed between grazing cows or cows maintained in drylots, but grazing cows required 85% and 98% less harvested hay in years 1 and 2 than cows in drylot during the winter and spring. Because less hay was needed to maintain grazing cows, excesses of 12,354 and 5,244 pounds of hay dry matter per cow in 1995 and 1996 remained in the year-round grazing system. During corn crop grazing, organic matter yield decreased at 23.5 and 28.8 pounds of organic matter per day from grazed areas of corn crop residues in 1995 and 1996. Organic matter losses due to weathering were 6.8, 10.3, and 12.7 pounds per day in corn crop residue, tall fescue-red clover and smooth bromegrass-red clover in 1995 and 12.1, 10.7, and 12.1 in 1996. Organic matter losses from grazed and ungrazed areas of tall fescue-red clover and smooth bromegrass-red clover during stockpiled grazing were 6.9, 6.9, and 2.1, 2.9 in 1995 and 13.4, 4.3, and +6.9, 4.4 pounds per day in 1996.

Evaluation of a Year-Round Grazing System: Winter Progress Report

The winter component of a year-round grazing system involving grazing of corn crop residues followed by grazing stockpiled grass legume forages was compared at the McNay Research Farm with that of the winter component of a minimal land system that maintained cows in drylot,. In the summer of 1995, two cuttings of hay were harvested from two 15-acre fields containing “Johnston” endophyte-free tall fescue and red clover, and two cuttings of hay were taken from two 15-acre fields of smooth bromegrass and red clover. Hay yields were 4,236 and 4,600 pounds of dry matter per acre for the tall fescue--red clover and smooth bromegrass--red clover. Following grain harvest four 7.5-acre fields containing corn crop residue were stocked with cows at midgestation at an allowance of 1.5 acres per cow. Forage yields at the initiation of corn crop grazing were 3,766pounds of dry matter per acre for corn crop residue, 1,748 pounds for tall fescue--red clover, and 1,.880 pounds for smooth bromegrass--red clover. Corn crop residues and stockpiled forages were grazed in a strip stocking system. For comparison, 20 cows were placed in two drylots simultaneously to the initiation of corn crop grazing where they remained throughout the winter and spring grazing seasons. Cows maintained in drylot or grazing corn crop residue and stockpiled forages were supplemented with hay as large round bales to maintain a body condition score of five. No seasonal differences in body weight and body condition were observed between grazing cows or cows maintained in drylot, but grazing cows required 87% and 84% less harvested hay than cows in drylot during the winter and spring respectively. Because less hay was needed to maintain grazing cows, an excess of 11,905 and 12,803 pounds of hay dry matter per cow remained in the year-round grazing system. During corn crop grazing, organic matter yield decreased at 27.3 pounds of organic matter per day from grazed areas of corn crop residue. Organic matter losses due to weathering were 9.4, 12.9, and 15.8 pounds per day in corn crop residue, tall fescue-red clover and smooth bromegrass-red clover. Organic matter losses from grazed and ungrazed areas during stockpiled grazing were 7.3 and 6.9 for tall fescue--red clover and 2.1, 2.9 for smooth bromegrass--red clover.

A 20-day period standing oscillation in the northern winter stratosphere

Observations of the ozone profile by a ground-based microwave radiometer in Switzerland indicate a dominant 20-day oscillation in stratospheric ozone, possibly related to oscillations of the polar vortex edge during winter. For further understanding of the nature of the 20-day oscillation, the ozone data set of ERA Interim meteorological reanalysis is analyzed at the latitude belt of 47.5° N and in the time from 1979 to 2010. Spectral analysis of ozone time series at 7 hPa indicates that the 20-day oscillation is maximal at two locations: 7.5° E, 47.5° N and 60° E, 47.5° N. Composites of the stream function are derived for different phases of the 20-day oscillation of stratospheric ozone at 7 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere. The streamline at Ψ = −2 × 107 m2 s−1 is in the vicinity of the polar vortex edge. The other streamline at Ψ = 4 × 107 m2 s1 surrounds the Aleutian anticyclone and goes to the subtropics. The composites show 20-day period standing oscillations at the polar vortex edge and in the subtropics above Northern Africa, India, and China. The 20-day period standing oscillation above Aral Sea and India is correlated to the strength of the Aleutian anticyclone.