Forest policies and programs affecting vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

Due to large scale afforestation programs and forest conservation legislations, India's total forest area seems to have stabilized or even increased. In spite of such efforts, forest fragmentation and degradation continues, with forests being subject to increased pressure due to anthropogenic factors. Such fragmentation and degradation is leading to the forest cover to change from very dense to moderately dense and open forest and 253 km(2) of very dense forest has been converted to moderately dense forest, open forest, scrub and non-forest (during 2005-2007). Similarly, there has been a degradation of 4,120 km(2) of moderately dense forest to open forest, scrub and non-forest resulting in a net loss of 936 km(2) of moderately dense forest. Additionally, 4,335 km(2) of open forest have degraded to scrub and non-forest. Coupled with pressure due to anthropogenic factors, climate change is likely to be an added stress on forests. Forest sector programs and policies are major factors that determine the status of forests and potentially resilience to projected impacts of climate change. An attempt is made to review the forest policies and programs and their implications for the status of forests and for vulnerability of forests to projected climate change. The study concludes that forest conservation and development policies and programs need to be oriented to incorporate climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.

Impact of climate change at species level: a case study of teak in India

In this study, we model the long-term effect of climate change on commercially important teak (Tectona grandis) and its productivity in India. This modelling assessment is based on climate projections of the regional climate model of the Hadley Center (HadRM3) and the dynamic vegetation model, IBIS. According to the model projections, 30% of teak grids in India are vulnerable to climate change under both A2 and B2 SRES scenarios because the future climate may not be optimal for teak at these grids. However, the net primary productivity and biomass are expected to increase because of elevated levels of CO2. Given these directions of likely impacts, it is crucial to further investigate the climate change impacts on teak and incorporate such findings into long-term teak plantation programs. This study also demonstrates the feasibility and limitations of assessing the impact of projected climate change at the species level in the tropics.

Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India

Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m(2)/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (-5) to 40% across different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However, under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (-2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years 2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from IBIS-a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108.

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.

Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

Wind loading over the top portions of tall stacks with and without external landing platforms

The variation of the drag force near the top portions of tall stacks with and without external landing platforms, and with the exit open and closed, has been examined by model studies in a wind tunnel at Reynolds numbers of about 10(5). Pressure measurements on three models of different height to diameter ratios have been supplemented by flow visualisation studies. Observations confirm that when there is no platform, significant load enhancement over the top three to four diameters occurs, due to the high suction caused by the sharp separation of the flow over the top from the rim, in the aft regions of the stack. The enhanced loading is found to be greater if the exit is closed. A platform at the top, of less than twice the exit diameter, further increases the drag force near the top, but a still larger platform at the top, of about three times the exit diameter, decreases the drag force to values less than those much further below, effectively nullifying the enhanced drag force. It was found that such a reduction of the enhanced drag force in the top regions can also be achieved by a smaller platform of 1.1 to 1.3 times the local diameter, located at about three to five diameters below the top.

Climate change and agricultrue-An Indian perspective

In this paper, we examine the major predictions made so far regarding the nature of climate change and its impacts on our region in the light of the known errors of the set of models and the observations over this century. The major predictions of the climate models about the impact of increased concentration of greenhouse gases ave at variance with the observations over the Indian region during the last century characterized by such increases and global warming. It is important to note that as far as the Indian region is concerned, the impact of year-to-year variation of the monsoon will continue to be dominant over longer period changes even in the presence of global warming. Recent studies have also brought out the uncertainties in the yields simulated by crop models. It is suggested that a deeper understanding of the links between climate and agricultural productivity is essential for generating reliable predictions of impact of climate change. Such an insight is also required for identifying cropping patterns and management practices which are tailored for sustained maximum yield in the face of the vagaries of the monsoon.

Origin of a trend in ECMWF wind analysis and its objective removal

The suitability of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational wind analysis for the period 1980-1991 for studying interannual variability is examined. The changes in the model and the analysis procedure are shown to give rise to a systematic and significant trend in the large scale circulation features. A new method of removing the systematic errors at all levels is presented using multivariate EOF analysis. Objectively detrended analysis of the three-dimensional wind field agrees well with independent Florida State University (FSU) wind analysis at the surface. It is shown that the interannual variations in the detrended surface analysis agree well in amplitude as well as spatial patterns with those of the FSU analysis. Therefore, the detrended analyses at other levels as well are expected to be useful for studies of variability and predictability at interannual time scales. It is demonstrated that this trend in the wind field is due to the shift in the climatologies from the period 1980-1985 to the period 1986-1991.

Airborne measurements of aerosol scattering properties above the MABL over Bay of Bengal during W_ICARB - characteristics and spatial gradients

Realizing the importance of aerosol characterization and addressing its spatio-temporal heterogeneities over Bay of Bengal (BoB), campaign mode observations of aerosol parameters were carried out using simultaneous cruise, aircraft and land-based measurements during the Winter Integrated Campaign for Aerosols gases and Radiation Budget (W_ICARB). Under this, airborne measurements of total and hemispheric backscatter coefficients were made over several regions of coastal India and eastern BoB using a three wavelength integrating nephelometer. The measurements include high resolution multi-level (ML) sorties for altitude profiles and bi-level (BL) sorties for spatial gradients within and above the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) over BoB. The vertical profiles of the scattering coefficients are investigated in light of the information on the vertical structure of the atmospheric stability, which was derived from the collocated GPS (Global Positioning System) aided radiosonde ascents. In general, the altitude profiles revealed that the scattering coefficient remained steady in the convectively well-mixed regions and dropped off above the MABL. This decrease was quite rapid off the Indian mainland, while it was more gradual in the eastern BoB. Investigation on horizontal gradients revealed that the scattering coefficients over northern BoB are 3 to 4 times higher compared to that of central BoB within and above the MABL. A north-south gradient in scattering coefficients is observed over Port Blair in the eastern BoB, with values decreasing from south to north, which is attributed to the similar gradient in the surface wind speed, which can be replicated in the sea salt abundance. The gradients are parameterized using best-fit analytical functions.

Multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction of daily chaotic rainfall with climate inputs

The basic characteristic of a chaotic system is its sensitivity to the infinitesimal changes in its initial conditions. A limit to predictability in chaotic system arises mainly due to this sensitivity and also due to the ineffectiveness of the model to reveal the underlying dynamics of the system. In the present study, an attempt is made to quantify these uncertainties involved and thereby improve the predictability by adopting a multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. Daily rainfall data of Malaprabha basin, India for the period 1955-2000 is used for the study. It is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with the dimension varying from 5 to 7. A multivariate phase space is generated, considering a climate data set of 16 variables. The chaotic nature of each of these variables is confirmed using false nearest neighbor method. The redundancy, if any, of this atmospheric data set is further removed by employing principal component analysis (PCA) method and thereby reducing it to eight principal components (PCs). This multivariate series (rainfall along with eight PCs) is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with dimension 10. Nonlinear prediction employing local approximation method is done using univariate series (rainfall alone) and multivariate series for different combinations of embedding dimensions and delay times. The uncertainty in initial conditions is thus addressed by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of parameters. The ensembles generated from multivariate predictions are found to be better than those from univariate predictions. The uncertainty in predictions is decreased or in other words predictability is increased by adopting multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. The restriction on predictability of a chaotic series can thus be altered by quantifying the uncertainty in the initial conditions and also by including other possible variables, which may influence the system. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of climate information for farm-level decision making: rainfed groundnut in southern India

The production of rainfed crops in semi-arid tropics exhibits large variation in response to the variation in seasonal rainfall. There are several farm-level decisions such as the choice of cropping pattern, whether to invest in fertilizers, pesticides etc., the choice of the period for planting, plant population density etc. for which the appropriate choice (associated with maximum production or minimum risk) depends upon the nature of the rainfall variability or the prediction for a specific year. In this paper, we have addressed the problem of identifying the appropriate strategies for cultivation of rainfed groundnut in the Anantapur region in a semi-arid part of the Indian peninsula. The approach developed involves participatory research with active collaboration with farmers, so that the problems with perceived need are addressed with the modern tools and data sets available. Given the large spatial variation of climate and soil, the appropriate strategies are necessarily location specific. With the approach adopted, it is possible to tap the detailed location specific knowledge of the complex rainfed ecosystem and gain an insight into the variety of options of land use and management practices available to each category of stakeholders. We believe such a participatory approach is essential for identifying strategies that have a favourable cost-benefit ratio over the region considered and hence are associated with a high chance of acceptance by the stakeholders. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variable-speed wind power generation using doubly fed wound rotor induction machine - A comparison with alternative schemes

In this paper, a wind energy conversion system (WECS) using grid-connected wound rotor induction machine controlled from the rotor side is compared with both fixed speed and variable speed systems using cage rotor induction machine. The comparison is done on the basis of (I) major hardware components required, (II) operating region, and (III) energy output due to a defined wind function using the characteristics of a practical wind turbine. Although a fixed speed system is more simple and reliable, it severely limits the energy output of a wind turbine. In case of variable speed systems, comparison shows that using a wound rotor induction machine of similar rating can significantly enhance energy capture. This comes about due to the ability to operate with rated torque even at supersynchronous speeds; power is then generated out of the rotor as well as the stator. Moreover, with rotor side control, the voltage rating of the power devices and dc bus capacitor bank is reduced. The size of the line side inductor also decreasesd. Results are presented to show the substantial advantages of the doubly fed system.

A method of tracking the peak power points for a variable speed wind energy conversion system

In this paper, a method of tracking the peak power in a wind energy conversion system (WECS) is proposed, which is independent of the turbine parameters and air density. The algorithm searches for the peak power by varying the speed in the desired direction. The generator is operated in the speed control mode with the speed reference being dynamically modified in accordance with the magnitude and direction of change of active power. The peak power points in the P-omega curve correspond to dP/domega = 0. This fact is made use of in the optimum point search algorithm. The generator considered is a wound rotor induction machine whose stator is connected directly to the grid and the rotor is fed through back-to-back pulse-width-modulation (PWM) converters. Stator flux-oriented vector control is applied to control the active and reactive current loops independently. The turbine characteristics are generated by a dc motor fed from a commercial dc drive. All of the control loops are executed by a single-chip digital signal processor (DSP) controller TMS320F240. Experimental results show that the performance of the control algorithm compares well with the conventional torque control method.