Clustering algorithms for anti-money laundering using graph theory and social network analysis

HEMOLIA (a project under European community’s 7th framework programme) is a new generation Anti-Money Laundering (AML) intelligent multi-agent alert and investigation system which in addition to the traditional financial data makes extensive use of modern society’s huge telecom data source, thereby opening up a new dimension of capabilities to all Money Laundering fighters (FIUs, LEAs) and Financial Institutes (Banks, Insurance Companies, etc.). This Master-Thesis project is done at AIA, one of the partners for the HEMOLIA project in Barcelona. The objective of this thesis is to find the clusters in a network drawn by using the financial data. An extensive literature survey has been carried out and several standard algorithms related to networks have been studied and implemented. The clustering problem is a NP-hard problem and several algorithms like K-Means and Hierarchical clustering are being implemented for studying several problems relating to sociology, evolution, anthropology etc. However, these algorithms have certain drawbacks which make them very difficult to implement. The thesis suggests (a) a possible improvement to the K-Means algorithm, (b) a novel approach to the clustering problem using the Genetic Algorithms and (c) a new algorithm for finding the cluster of a node using the Genetic Algorithm.

Luck and the control theory of knowledge

The dissertation accomplishes two aims: 1) to diagnose what prevents true beliefs from being knowledge; 2) to give an positive account of knowledge. Concerning the first aim, it offers an account of the notion of luck. It defends the view that luck is a form of risk and distinguishes two types of luck. Then, it applies the account to the problem of epistemic luck and distinguishes, accordingly, two types of epistemic luck. It is argued that these two types of epistemic luck explain the whole range of cases of not-known true belief. Concerning the second aim, the dissertation advances an account of knowledge in terms of the notion of cognitive control that deals with the two forms of epistemic luck distinguished.

Variation of transaminases, HCV-RNA levels and Th1/Th2 cytokine production during the post-partum period in pregnant women with chronic hepatitis C.

This study analyses the evolution of liver disease in women with chronic hepatitis C during the third trimester of pregnancy and the post-partum period, as a natural model of immune modulation and reconstitution. Of the 122 mothers recruited to this study, 89 were HCV-RNA+ve/HIV-ve and 33 were HCV-RNA-ve/HIV-ve/HCVantibody+ve and all were tested during the third trimester of pregnancy, at delivery and post-delivery. The HCV-RNA+ve mothers were categorized as either Type-A (66%), with an increase in ALT levels in the post-partum period (>40 U/L; P<0.001) or as Type-B (34%), with no variation in ALT values. The Type-A mothers also presented a significant decrease in serum HCV-RNA levels in the post-delivery period (P<0.001) and this event was concomitant with an increase in Th1 cytokine levels (INFγ, P = 0.04; IL12, P = 0.01 and IL2, P = 0.01). On the other hand, the Type-B mothers and the HCV-RNA-ve women presented no variations in either of these parameters. However, they did present higher Th1 cytokine levels in the partum period (INFγ and IL2, P<0.05) than both the Type-A and the HCV-RNA-ve women. Cytokine levels at the moment of delivery do not constitute a risk factor associated with HCV vertical transmission. It is concluded that differences in the ALT and HCV-RNA values observed in HCV-RNA+ve women in the postpartum period might be due to different ratios of Th1 cytokine production. In the Type-B women, the high partum levels of Th1 cytokines and the absence of post-partum variation in ALT and HCV-RNA levels may be related to permanent Th1 cytokine stimulation.

Extensive variation at MHC DRB in the New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri) provides evidence for balancing selection.

Marine mammals are often reported to possess reduced variation of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes compared with their terrestrial counterparts. We evaluated diversity at two MHC class II B genes, DQB and DRB, in the New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri, NZSL) a species that has suffered high mortality owing to bacterial epizootics, using Sanger sequencing and haplotype reconstruction, together with next-generation sequencing. Despite this species' prolonged history of small population size and highly restricted distribution, we demonstrate extensive diversity at MHC DRB with 26 alleles, whereas MHC DQB is dimorphic. We identify four DRB codons, predicted to be involved in antigen binding, that are evolving under adaptive evolution. Our data suggest diversity at DRB may be maintained by balancing selection, consistent with the role of this locus as an antigen-binding region and the species' recent history of mass mortality during a series of bacterial epizootics. Phylogenetic analyses of DQB and DRB sequences from pinnipeds and other carnivores revealed significant allelic diversity, but little phylogenetic depth or structure among pinniped alleles; thus, we could neither confirm nor refute the possibility of trans-species polymorphism in this group. The phylogenetic pattern observed however, suggests some significant evolutionary constraint on these loci in the recent past, with the pattern consistent with that expected following an epizootic event. These data may help further elucidate some of the genetic factors underlying the unusually high susceptibility to bacterial infection of the threatened NZSL, and help us to better understand the extent and pattern of MHC diversity in pinnipeds.

Undertreatment of acute pain (oligoanalgesia) and medical practice variation in prehospital analgesia of adult trauma patients: a 10 yr retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Prehospital oligoanalgesia is prevalent among trauma victims, even when the emergency medical services team includes a physician. We investigated if not only patients' characteristics but physicians' practice variations contributed to prehospital oligoanalgesia. METHODS: Patient records of conscious adult trauma victims transported by our air rescue helicopter service over 10 yr were reviewed retrospectively. Oligoanalgesia was defined as a numeric rating scale (NRS) >3 at hospital admission. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to predict oligoanalgesia, accounting first for patient case-mix, and then physician-level clustering. The intraclass correlation was expressed as the median odds ratio (MOR). RESULTS: A total of 1202 patients and 77 physicians were included in the study. NRS at the scene was 6.9 (1.9). The prevalence of oligoanalgesia was 43%. Physicians had a median of 5.7 yr (inter-quartile range: 4.2-7.5) of post-graduate training and 27% were female. In our multilevel analysis, significant predictors of oligoanalgesia were: no analgesia [odds ratio (OR) 8.8], National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics V on site (OR 4.4), NRS on site (OR 1.5 per additional NRS unit >4), female physician (OR 2.0), and years of post-graduate experience [>4.0 to ≤5.0 (OR 1.3), >3.0 to ≤4.0 (OR 1.6), >2.0 to ≤3.0 (OR 2.6), and ≤2.0 yr (OR 16.7)]. The MOR was 2.6, and was statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians' practice variations contributed to oligoanalgesia, a factor often overlooked in analyses of prehospital pain management. Further exploration of the sources of these variations may provide innovative targets for quality improvement programmes to achieve consistent pain relief for trauma victims.

Monitoring procedures in environmental geochemistry and compositional data analysis theory

First discussion on compositional data analysis is attributable to Karl Pearson, in 1897. However, notwithstanding the recent developments on algebraic structure of the simplex, more than twenty years after Aitchison’s idea of log-transformations of closed data, scientific literature is again full of statistical treatments of this type of data by using traditional methodologies. This is particularly true in environmental geochemistry where besides the problem of the closure, the spatial structure (dependence) of the data have to be considered. In this work we propose the use of log-contrast values, obtained by asimplicial principal component analysis, as LQGLFDWRUV of given environmental conditions. The investigation of the log-constrast frequency distributions allows pointing out the statistical laws able togenerate the values and to govern their variability. The changes, if compared, for example, with the mean values of the random variables assumed as models, or other reference parameters, allow definingmonitors to be used to assess the extent of possible environmental contamination. Case study on running and ground waters from Chiavenna Valley (Northern Italy) by using Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, HCO3-, SO4 2- and Cl- concentrations will be illustrated

Disentangling reasons for low Y chromosome variation in the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula).

Y chromosome variation is determined by several confounding factors including mutation rate, effective population size, demography, and selection. Disentangling these factors is essential to better understand the evolutionary properties of the Y chromosome. We analyzed genetic variation on the Y chromosome, X chromosome, and mtDNA of the greater white-toothed shrew, a species with low variance in male reproductive success and limited sex-biased dispersal, which enables us to control to some extent for life-history effects. We also compared ancestral (Moroccan) to derived (European) populations to investigate the role of demographic history in determining Y variation. Recent colonization of Europe by a small number of founders (combined with low mutation rates) is largely responsible for low diversity observed on the European Y and X chromosomes compared to mtDNA. After accounting for mutation rate, copy number, and demography, the Y chromosome still displays a deficit in variation relative to the X in both populations. This is possibly influenced by directional selection, but the slightly higher variance in male reproductive success is also likely to play a role, even though the difference is small compared to that in highly polygynous species. This study illustrates that demography and life-history effects should be scrutinized before inferring strong selective pressure as a reason for low diversity on the Y chromosome.

Between-year variation in population sex ratio increases with complexity of the breeding system in Hymenoptera.

While adaptive adjustment of sex ratio in the function of colony kin structure and food availability commonly occurs in social Hymenoptera, long-term studies have revealed substantial unexplained between-year variation in sex ratio at the population level. In order to identify factors that contribute to increased between-year variation in population sex ratio, we conducted a comparative analysis across 47 Hymenoptera species differing in their breeding system. We found that between-year variation in population sex ratio steadily increased as one moved from solitary species, to primitively eusocial species, to single-queen eusocial species, to multiple-queen eusocial species. Specifically, between-year variation in population sex ratio was low (6.6% of total possible variation) in solitary species, which is consistent with the view that in solitary species, sex ratio can vary only in response to fluctuations in ecological factors such as food availability. In contrast, we found significantly higher (19.5%) between-year variation in population sex ratio in multiple-queen eusocial species, which supports the view that in these species, sex ratio can also fluctuate in response to temporal changes in social factors such as queen number and queen-worker control over sex ratio, as well as factors influencing caste determination. The simultaneous adjustment of sex ratio in response to temporal fluctuations in ecological and social factors seems to preclude the existence of a single sex ratio optimum. The absence of such an optimum may reflect an additional cost associated with the evolution of complex breeding systems in Hymenoptera societies.

Advances in Sequence Analysis: Theory, Methods, Applications

This book gives a general view of sequence analysis, the statistical study of successions of states or events. It includes innovative contributions on life course studies, transitions into and out of employment, contemporaneous and historical careers, and political trajectories. The approach presented in this book is now central to the life-course perspective and the study of social processes more generally. This volume promotes the dialogue between approaches to sequence analysis that developed separately, within traditions contrasted in space and disciplines. It includes the latest developments in sequential concepts, coding, atypical datasets and time patterns, optimal matching and alternative algorithms, survey optimization, and visualization. Field studies include original sequential material related to parenting in 19th-century Belgium, higher education and work in Finland and Italy, family formation before and after German reunification, French Jews persecuted in occupied France, long-term trends in electoral participation, and regime democratization. Overall the book reassesses the classical uses of sequences and it promotes new ways of collecting, formatting, representing and processing them. The introduction provides basic sequential concepts and tools, as well as a history of the method. Chapters are presented in a way that is both accessible to the beginner and informative to the expert.

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

Investigating the genetic variation underlying episodicity in major depressive disorder: Suggestive evidence for a bipolar contribution.

BACKGROUND: Highly recurrent major depressive disorder (MDD) has reportedly increased risk of shifting to bipolar disorder; high recurrence frequency has, therefore, featured as evidence of 'soft bipolarity'. We aimed to investigate the genetic underpinnings of total depressive episode count in recurrent MDD. METHODS: Our primary sample included 1966 MDD cases with negative family history of bipolar disorder from the RADIANT studies. Total episode count was adjusted for gender, age, MDD duration, study and center before being tested for association with genotype in two separate genome-wide analyses (GWAS), in the full set and in a subset of 1364 cases with positive family history of MDD (FH+). We also calculated polygenic scores from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium MDD and bipolar disorder studies. RESULTS: Episodicity (especially intermediate episode counts) was an independent index of MDD familial aggregation, replicating previous reports. The GWAS produced no genome-wide significant findings. The strongest signals were detected in the full set at MAGI1 (p=5.1×10(-7)), previously associated with bipolar disorder, and in the FH+ subset at STIM1 (p=3.9×10(-6) after imputation), a calcium channel signaling gene. However, these findings failed to replicate in an independent Munich cohort. In the full set polygenic profile analyses, MDD polygenes predicted episodicity better than bipolar polygenes; however, in the FH+ subset, both polygenic scores performed similarly. LIMITATIONS: Episode count was self-reported and, therefore, subject to recall bias. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings lend preliminary support to the hypothesis that highly recurrent MDD with FH+ is part of a 'soft bipolar spectrum' but await replication in larger cohorts.