Startegy selection during exploratory behavior: sex differences, uncertainty and risk managment

This study deals with the psychological processes underlying the selection of appropriate strategy during exploratory behavior. A new device was used to assess sexual dimorphisms in spatial abilities that do not depend on spatial rotation, map reading or directional vector extraction capacities. Moreover, it makes it possible to investigate exploratory behavior as a specific response to novelty that trades off risk and reward. Risk management under uncertainty was assessed through both spontaneous searching strategies and signal detection capacities. The results of exploratory behavior, detection capacities, and decision-making strategies seem to indicate that women's exploratory behavior is based on risk-reducing behavior while men behavior does not appear to be influenced by this variable. This difference was interpreted as a difference in information processing modifying beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events, and therefore influencing risk evaluation.

Fluctuaciones cíclicas y raíces unitarias en la economia española, 1850-1990

En este artículo se analiza el grado de persistencia de las fluctuaciones cíclicas en la economía española. En concreto, se estudia si el PIB y el PIB por capita de esta economía presentan una raíz unitaria. Con el fin de evitar el sesgo a aceptar raíces unitarias cuando se producen cambios en la función de tendencia, como el originado por la Guerra Civil española (1936-1939), se han aplicado varios contrastes que tienen en cuenta los cambios en la función de tendencia. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que existe una importante evidencia en el sentido que el logaritmo del PIB presenta una raíz unitaria. La principal implicación de este resultado es que los shocks sobre el producto tienen efectos permanentes en el nivel del PIB de la economía española, aun cuando esta hipótesis es más difícil de aceptar por el PIB por capita vista la evidencia contradictoria encontrada a favor de la misma.

Climate oscillations and species interactions: large-scale congruence but regional differences in the phylogeographic structures of an alpine plant and its monophagous insect

Aim. To predict the fate of alpine interactions involving specialized species, using a monophagous beetle and its host-plant as a case study. Location. The Alps. Methods. We investigated genetic structuring of the herbivorous beetle Oreina gloriosa and its specific host-plant Peucedanum ostruthium. We used genome fingerprinting (in the insect and the plant) and sequence data (in the insect) to compare the distribution of the main gene pools in the two associated species and to estimate divergence time in the insect, a proxy for the temporal origin of the interaction. We quantified the similarity in spatial genetic structures by performing a Procrustes analysis, a tool from the shape theory. Finally, we simulated recolonization of an empty space analogous to the deglaciated Alps just after ice retreat by two lineages from two species showing unbalanced dependence, to examine how timing of the recolonization process, as well as dispersal capacities of associated species, could explain the observed pattern. Results. Contrasting with expectations based on their asymmetrical dependence, patterns in the beetle and plant were congruent at a large scale. Exceptions occurred at a regional scale in areas of admixture, matching known suture zones in Alpine plants. Simulations using a lattice-based model suggested these empirical patterns arose during or soon after recolonization, long after the estimated origin of the interaction c. 0.5 million years ago. Main conclusions. Species-specific interactions are scarce in alpine habitats because glacial cycles have limited opportunities for coevolution. Their fate, however, remains uncertain under climate change. Here we show that whereas most dispersal routes are paralleled at large scale, regional incongruence implies that the destinies of the species might differ under changing climate. This may be a consequence of the host-dependence of the beetle that locally limits the establishment of dispersing insects.

Using matrix attachment regions to improve recombinant protein production.

Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells are the system of choice for the production of complex molecules, such as monoclonal antibodies. Despite significant progress in improving the yield from these cells, the process to the selection, identification, and maintenance of high-producing cell lines remains cumbersome, time consuming, and often of uncertain outcome. Matrix attachment regions (MARs) are DNA sequences that help generate and maintain an open chromatin domain that is favourable to transcription and may also facilitate the integration of several copies of the transgene. By incorporating MARs into expression vectors, an increase in the proportion of high-producer cells as well as an increase in protein production are seen, thereby reducing the number of clones to be screened and time to production by as much as 9 months. In this chapter, we describe how MARs can be used to increase transgene expression and provide protocols for the transfection of CHO cells in suspension and detection of high-producing antibody cell clones.

Glucose transporters in the 21st Century.

The ability to take up and metabolize glucose at the cellular level is a property shared by the vast majority of existing organisms. Most mammalian cells import glucose by a process of facilitative diffusion mediated by members of the Glut (SLC2A) family of membrane transport proteins. Fourteen Glut proteins are expressed in the human and they include transporters for substrates other than glucose, including fructose, myoinositol, and urate. The primary physiological substrates for at least half of the 14 Glut proteins are either uncertain or unknown. The well-established glucose transporter isoforms, Gluts 1-4, are known to have distinct regulatory and/or kinetic properties that reflect their specific roles in cellular and whole body glucose homeostasis. Separate review articles on many of the Glut proteins have recently appeared in this journal. Here, we provide a very brief summary of the known properties of the 14 Glut proteins and suggest some avenues of future investigation in this area.

Un modelo de riesgo de crédito basado en opciones compuestas con barrera. Aplicación al mercado continuo español

In this work the valuation methodology of compound option written on a downand-out call option, developed by Ericsson and Reneby (2003), has been applied to deduce a credit risk model. It is supposed that the firm has a debt structure with two maturity dates and that the credit event takes place when the assets firm value falls under a determined level called barrier. An empirical application of the model for 105 firms of Spanish continuous market is carried out. For each one of them its value in the date of analysis, the volatility and the critical value are obtained and from these, the default probability to short and long-term and the implicit probability in the two previous probabilities are deduced. The results are compared with the ones obtained from the Geskemodel (1977).

Financial Integration, Trade Openness and International Transmission

[cat] Com afecten l’obertura comercial i financera a la volatilitat macroeconòmica? La literatura existent, tant empírica com teòrica, no ha assolit encara un consens. Aquest article usa un model microfonamentat de dos països simètrics amb entrada endògena d’empreses per estudiar-ho. L’anàlisis es du a terme per tres règims econòmics diferents amb diferents nivells d’integració internacional: una economia tancada, una autarquia financera i una integració plena. Es consideren diversos nivells d’obertura comercial, en forma de biaix domèstic de la demanda i l’economia pot patir pertorbacions en la productivitat del treball i en innovació. El model conclou que la incertesa macroeconòmica, representada principalment per la volatilitat del consum, la producció i la relació real d’intercanvi internacional, depèn del grau d’obertura i del tipus de pertorbació.

Fluctuaciones cíclicas y raíces unitarias en la economia española, 1850-1990

En este artículo se analiza el grado de persistencia de las fluctuaciones cíclicas en la economía española. En concreto, se estudia si el PIB y el PIB por capita de esta economía presentan una raíz unitaria. Con el fin de evitar el sesgo a aceptar raíces unitarias cuando se producen cambios en la función de tendencia, como el originado por la Guerra Civil española (1936-1939), se han aplicado varios contrastes que tienen en cuenta los cambios en la función de tendencia. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que existe una importante evidencia en el sentido que el logaritmo del PIB presenta una raíz unitaria. La principal implicación de este resultado es que los shocks sobre el producto tienen efectos permanentes en el nivel del PIB de la economía española, aun cuando esta hipótesis es más difícil de aceptar por el PIB por capita vista la evidencia contradictoria encontrada a favor de la misma.

Modelos de tasas de interes en Chile: una revisión

Con este trabajo revisamos los Modelos de niveles de las tasas de intereses en Chile. Además de los Modelos de Nivel tradicionales por Chan, Karoly, Longstaff y Lijadoras (1992) en EE. UU, y Parisi (1998) en Chile, por el método de Probabilidad Maximun permitimos que la volatilidad condicional también incluya los procesos inesperados de la información (el modelo GARCH ) y también que la volatilidad sea la función del nivel de la tasa de intereses (modelo TVP-NIVELE) como en Brenner, Harjes y la Crona (1996). Para esto usamos producciones de mercado de bonos de reconocimiento, en cambio las producciones mensuales medias de subasta PDBC, y la ampliación del tamaño y la frecuencia de la muestra a 4 producciones semanales con términos(condiciones) diferentes a la madurez: 1 año, 5 años, 10 años y 15 años. Los resultados principales del estudio pueden ser resumidos en esto: la volatilidad de los cambios inesperados de las tarifas depende positivamente del nivel de las tarifas, sobre todo en el modelo de TVP-NIVEL. Obtenemos pruebas de reversión tacañas, tal que los incrementos en las tasas de intereses no eran independientes, contrariamente a lo obtenido por Brenner. en EE. UU. Los modelos de NIVELES no son capaces de ajustar apropiadamente la volatilidad en comparación con un modelo GARCH (1,1), y finalmente, el modelo de TVP-NIVEL no vence los resultados del modelo GARCH (1,1)

A joint back calculation model for the imputation of the date of HIV infection in a prevalent cohort.

In studies of the natural history of HIV-1 infection, the time scale of primary interest is the time since infection. Unfortunately, this time is very often unknown for HIV infection and using the follow-up time instead of the time since infection is likely to provide biased results because of onset confounding. Laboratory markers such as the CD4 T-cell count carry important information concerning disease progression and can be used to predict the unknown date of infection. Previous work on this topic has made use of only one CD4 measurement or based the imputation on incident patients only. However, because of considerable intrinsic variability in CD4 levels and because incident cases are different from prevalent cases, back calculation based on only one CD4 determination per person or on characteristics of the incident sub-cohort may provide unreliable results. Therefore, we propose a methodology based on the repeated individual CD4 T-cells marker measurements that use both incident and prevalent cases to impute the unknown date of infection. Our approach uses joint modelling of the time since infection, the CD4 time path and the drop-out process. This methodology has been applied to estimate the CD4 slope and impute the unknown date of infection in HIV patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. A procedure based on the comparison of different slope estimates is proposed to assess the goodness of fit of the imputation. Results of simulation studies indicated that the imputation procedure worked well, despite the intrinsic high volatility of the CD4 marker.

Policy Change and the Politics of Expertise. Economic Ideas and immigration Control Reforms in switzerland

This article analyses the varying influence across time of the "epistemic community" of free-market economists on immigration policy making in Switzerland. To this end, a framework for the analysis of the impact of economic expertise is provided, and then used in an historical analysis comparing the 1960s with the 1990s. Whereas this influence can be considered to have been weak in the 1960s, it gained significantly in importance in the 1990s, when a period of economic unrest seriously challenged previous immigration policies. It is argued that economic experts played an important role in framing the reforms undertaken during this latter period, notably by providing a "credible causal story" about the links between the existing immigration policy and the social problems which arose in the country in the 1990s. As compared to the 1960s, economic expertise in the 1990s enjoyed more credibility, more political support and took full advantage of a more uncertain social and economic context

Dépistage des cancers en pratique clinique: une place privilégiée pour le partage de la décision. [Cancer screening in clinical practice: the value of shared decision-making]

Shared decision-making approach to uncertain clinical situations such as cancer screening seems more appropriate than ever. Shared decision making can be defined as an interactive process where physician and patient share all the stages of the decision making process. For patients who wish to be implicated in the management of their health conditions, physicians might express difficulty to do so. Use of patient decision aids appears to improve such process of shared decision making. L'incertitude quant à l'efficacité de certains dépistages de cancers et du traitement en cas de test positif rend l'application du partage de la décision particulièrement appropriée. Le concept du partage de la décision peut être défini comme un processus interactif où le médecin et le patient partagent les étapes du processus de décision. Face aux patients qui désirent être impliqués dans les décisions concernant leur santé, les médecins peinent parfois à le faire. Or, l'utilisation d'outils d'aide à la décision est un moyen efficace de favoriser ce partage de l'information et, si souhaité par le patient, de la décision.

High rate of completion of preventive therapy for latent tuberculosis infection among asylum seekers in a Swiss Canton.

BACKGROUND: Preventive treatment may avoid future cases of tuberculosis among asylum seekers. The effectiveness of preventive treatment depends in large part on treatment completion. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, asylum seekers of two of the Swiss Canton Vaud migration centres were screened with the Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA). Those with a positive IGRA were referred for medical examination. Individuals with active or past tuberculosis were excluded. Preventive treatment was offered to all participants with positive IGRA but without active tuberculosis. The adherence was assessed during monthly follow-up. RESULTS: From a population of 393 adult migrants, 98 (24.9%) had a positive IGRA. Eleven did not attend the initial medical assessment. Of the 87 examined, eight presented with pulmonary disease (five of them received a full course of antituberculous therapy), two had a history of prior tuberculosis treatment and two had contraindications to treatment. Preventive treatment was offered to 75 individuals (4 months rifampicin in 74 and 9 months isoniazid in one), of whom 60 (80%) completed the treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The vulnerability and the volatility of this population make screening and observance of treatment difficult. It seems possible to obtain a high rate of completion using a short course of treatment in a closely monitored population living in stable housing conditions.

Pregnancy outcome after methotrexate treatment for rheumatic disease prior to or during early pregnancy: a prospective multicenter cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: High-dose methotrexate (MTX) exposure during pregnancy is associated with embryopathy. The teratogenic potential of MTX at dosages typically used in the treatment of rheumatic diseases remains uncertain. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of spontaneous abortion, major birth defects, elective termination of pregnancy, shortened gestational age at delivery, and reduced birth weight in women exposed to MTX. METHODS: Pregnancy outcome in women taking MTX (≤30 mg/week) either after conception or within the 12 weeks before conception was evaluated in a prospective observational multicenter cohort study. Pregnancy outcomes in the MTX group were compared to outcomes in a group of disease-matched women and a group of women without autoimmune diseases (neither group was exposed to MTX). RESULTS: The study sample included 324 MTX-exposed pregnancies (188 exposed post-conception, 136 exposed pre-conception), 459 disease-matched comparison women, and 1,107 comparison women without autoimmune diseases. In the post-conception cohort, the cumulative incidence of spontaneous abortion was 42.5% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 29.2-58.7), which was significantly higher than the incidence of spontaneous abortion in either comparison group. The risk of major birth defects (7 of 106 [6.6%]) was elevated compared to both the cohort of women without autoimmune diseases (29 of 1,001 [2.9%]) (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.1 [95% CI 1.03-9.5]) and the disease-matched cohort (14 of 393 [3.6%]) (adjusted OR 1.8 [95% CI 0.6-5.7]). None of the malformations were clearly consistent with MTX embryopathy. Neither the cumulative incidence of spontaneous abortion (14.4% [95% CI 8.0-25.3]) nor the risk of major birth defects (4 of 114 [3.5%]) was increased in the pre-conception cohort. Elective termination rates were increased in both of the MTX-exposed cohorts. There were no other significant differences among groups in other study end points. CONCLUSION: Post-conception administration of MTX at dosages typically used in the treatment of rheumatic diseases was associated with an increased risk of major birth defects and spontaneous abortion. Such evidence was not found among women in our pre-conception cohort.

Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.