Design of a forecasting system for ECMWF

As laid out in its convention there are 8 different objectives for ECMWF. One of the major objectives will consist of the preparation, on a regular basis, of the data necessary for the preparation of medium-range weather forecasts. The interpretation of this item is that the Centre will make forecasts once a day for a prediction period of up to 10 days. It is also evident that the Centre should not carry out any real weather forecasting but merely disseminate to the member countries the basic forecasting parameters with an appropriate resolution in space and time. It follows from this that the forecasting system at the Centre must from the operational point of view be functionally integrated with the Weather Services of the Member Countries. The operational interface between ECMWF and the Member Countries must be properly specified in order to get a reasonable flexibility for both systems. The problem of making numerical atmospheric predictions for periods beyond 4-5 days differs substantially from 2-3 days forecasting. From the physical point we can define a medium range forecast as a forecast where the initial disturbances have lost their individual structure. However we are still interested to predict the atmosphere in a similar way as in short range forecasting which means that the model must be able to predict the dissipation and decay of the initial phenomena and the creation of new ones. With this definition, medium range forecasting is indeed very difficult and generally regarded as more difficult than extended forecasts, where we usually only predict time and space mean values. The predictability of atmospheric flow has been extensively studied during the last years in theoretical investigations and by numerical experiments. As has been discussed elsewhere in this publication (see pp 338 and 431) a 10-day forecast is apparently on the fringe of predictability.

The design of a semantics-oriented organisational performance measurement system

Current methods and techniques used in designing organisational performance measurement systems do not consider the multiple aspects of business processes or the semantics of data generated during the lifecycle of a product. In this paper, we propose an organisational performance measurement systems design model that is based on the semantics of an organisation, business process and products lifecycle. Organisational performance measurement is examined from academic and practice disciplines. The multi-discipline approach is used as a research tool to explore the weaknesses of current models that are used to design organisational performance measurement systems. This helped in identifying the gaps in research and practice concerning the issues and challenges in designing information systems for measuring the performance of an organisation. The knowledge sources investigated include on-going and completed research project reports; scientific and management literature; and practitioners’ magazines.

Evaluating relative impact of virtual reality system variables on architectural design comprehension and presence - A variable-centered approach using fractional factorial experiment

The relative contributions of five variables (Stereoscopy, screen size, field of view, level of realism and level of detail) of virtual reality systems on spatial comprehension and presence are evaluated here. Using a variable-centered approach instead of an object-centric view as its theoretical basis, the contributions of these five variables and their two-way interactions are estimated through a 25-1 fractional factorial experiment (screening design) of resolution V with 84 subjects. The experiment design, procedure, measures used, creation of scales and indices, results of statistical analysis, their meaning and agenda for future research are elaborated.

Design and assessment of a large commercial Photovoltaic System in Barbados

One of the main aims of this thesis is to design an optimized commercial Photovoltaic (PV) system in Barbados from several variables such as racking type, module type and inverter type based on practicality, technical performance as well as financial returns to the client. Detailed simulations are done in PVSYST and financial models are used to compare different systems and their viability. Once the preeminent system is determined from a financial and performance perspective a detailed design is done using PVSYST and AutoCAD to design the most optimal PV system for the customer. In doing so, suitable engineering drawings are generated which are detailed enough for construction of the system. Detailed cost with quotes from relevant manufacturers, suppliers and estimators become instrumental in determining Balance of System Costs in addition to total project cost. The final simulated system is suggested with a PV capacity of 425kW and an inverter output of 300kW resulting in an array oversizing of 1.42. The PV system has a weighted Performance Ratio of 77 %, a specific yield of 1467 kWh/kWp and a projected annual production of 624 MWh/yr. This system is estimated to offset approximately 28 % of Carlton’s electrical load annually. Over the course of 20 years the PV system is projected to produce electricity at a cost of $0.201USD/kWh which is significantly lower than the $0.35 USD/kWh paid to the utility at the time of writing this thesis. Due to the high cost of electricity on the island, an attractive Feed-In-Tariff is not necessary to warrant the installation of a commercial System which over a lifetime which produces electricity at less than 60% of the cost to the user purchasing electricity from the utility. A simple payback period of 5.4 years, a return on investment of 17 % without incentives, in addition to an estimated diversion of 6840 barrels of oil or 2168 tonnes of CO2 further provides compelling justification for the installation of a commercial Photovoltaic System not only on Carlton A-1 Supermarket, but also island wide as well as regionally where most electricity supplies are from imported fossil fuels.

Supervision as control system : the design of supervision as a regulatory instrument in the social services sector in Sweden

In this article, the prevailing official view of supervision as a regulatory instrument is examined as it applies to the social services sector in Sweden. The study is based on a comparison of the views expressed on the design of supervision as a regulatory instrument by two government commissions, the Supervision Commission and the Commission on Supervision within the Social Services (UTIS), and on the positions taken by the Government regarding the definitions of the concept of supervision proposed by these commissions. The view of supervision as a regulatory instrument expressed in these policy documents is analysed with the help of a theoretical framework describing the components, their functions and the governance characteristics of control systems. In the framework separate interrelated characteristics of the components are identified and summarized into two models of control systems. The analysis shows that supervision in the Swedish social services sector can be described in terms of both a disciplinary and non-disciplinary system. By its system theoretical basis and the identification of interrelated characteristics the study contributes to a broadened understanding of the construction and functions of supervision as a regulatory instrument and of how supervision within the Swedish social sector is meant to be designed.

Using system dynamics for collaborative design : a case study

Background  In order to facilitate the collaborative design, system dynamics (SD) with a group modelling approach was used in the early stages of planning a new stroke unit. During six workshops a SD model was created in a multiprofessional group. Aim To explore to which extent and how the use of system dynamics contributed to the collaborative design process. Method A case study was conducted using several data sources. Results SD supported a collaborative design, by facilitating an explicit description of stroke care process, a dialogue and a joint understanding. The construction of the model obliged the group to conceptualise the stroke care and experimentation with the model gave the opportunity to reflect on care. Conclusion SD facilitated the collaborative design process and should be integrated in the early stages of the design process as a quality improvement tool.

The design and development of an integrated system for object-oriented finite element computing

Finite Element Method (FEM) is widely used in Science and Engineering since 1960’s. The vast majority of FEM software is procedure-oriented. However, this conventional style of designing FEM software encounters problems in maintenance, reuse, and expansion of the software. Recently the object-oriented finite element method attracts the attention of lots of researchers, and now there is a growing interest in this method. In this paper, the object-oriented finite element (OOFE) is briefly introduced. Then the design and development of an integrated OOFE system is described. A comparison of the integrated OOFE system and a procedure-oriented system shows that our OOFE system has many advantages.

Robust parallel filtering design of a swarm tracking system

Swarming networks of mobile autonomous agents require inter-agent position information in order perform various tasks. The primary control input for the majority of current control strategies is inter-agent distance information. In this paper we provide a robust parallel filter based tracking scheme that allows a mobile agent to track other multiple mobile agents. The distance, angle, and relative position is given in a direct target tracking output. This allows the mobile agent to decide which information is best suited for the particular objective

Design of a distributed power system stabiliser

A new design method for a distributed power system stabiliser for interconnected power systems is introduced in this paper. The stabiliser is of a low order, dynamic and robust. To generate the required local control signals, each local stabiliser requires information about either the rotor speed or the load angle of the other subsystems. A simple MATLAB based design algorithm is given and used on a three-machine unstable power system. The resulting stabiliser is simulated and sample results are presented.

Design of reduced-order state/unknown input observers: a descriptor system approach

This paper addresses the problem of estimating simultaneously a linear function of both the state and unknown input of linear system with unknown inputs. By adopting the descriptor system approach, the problem can be conveniently solved. Observers proposed in this paper are of low-order and do not include the derivatives of the outputs. New conditions for the existence of reduced-order observers are derived. A design procedure for the determination of the observer parameters can also be easily derived based on the derived existence conditions

Design of a distributed power system stabiliser

A new design method for a distributed power system stabiliser for interconnected power systems is introduced in this paper. The stabiliser is of a low order, dynamic and robust. To generate the required local control signals, each local stabiliser requires information about either the rotor speed or the load angle of the other subsystems. A simple MATLAB based design algorithm is given and used on a three-machine unstable power system. The resulting stabiliser is simulated and sample results are presented.

The design and implementation of a traffic accident analysis system

We designed and implemented a traffic accident analysis system (TAAS) in the paper. TAAS is the system faced traffic accident analysis, which uses the traffic rules (law) as knowledge sources to judge if the driver is responsible for a traffic accident. TAAS has characteristics of separating knowledge base and inference engine, using production rule and backward chaining. Besides, TAAS used predefined text and tracing program to realize explanation mechanism.