Envisioning 2050: climate change, aquaculture and fisheries in West Africa. Dakar, Senegal 14-16 April 2010

This report presents the activities and results of the workshop Envisioning 2050: Climate Change, Aquaculture and Fisheries in West Africa. The objectives of the workshop were to discuss critical issues and uncertainties faced by the fisheries and aquaculture sector in Ghana, Senegal and Mauritania, build sectoral scenarios for 2050 and discuss the implication of these scenarios in the context of climate change for the countries and the region.

Stationary Eddies and Zonal Variations of the Global Hydrological Cycle in a Changing Climate

This thesis advances our physical understanding of the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Specifically, it focuses on changes in the longitudinal (zonal) variation of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), which is predominantly controlled by planetary-scale stationary eddies. By studying idealized general circulation model (GCM) experiments with zonally varying boundary conditions, this thesis examines the mechanisms controlling the strength of stationary-eddy circulations and their role in the hydrological cycle. The overarching goal of this research is to understand the cause of changes in regional P - E with global warming. An understanding of such changes can be useful for impact studies focusing on water availability, ecosystem management, and flood risk.

Based on a moisture-budget analysis of ERA-Interim data, we establish an approximation for zonally anomalous P - E in terms of surface moisture content and stationary-eddy vertical motion in the lower troposphere. Part of the success of this approximation comes from our finding that transient-eddy moisture fluxes partially cancel the effect of stationary-eddy moisture advection, allowing divergent circulations to dominate the moisture budget. The lower-tropospheric vertical motion is related to horizontal motion in stationary eddies by Sverdrup and Ekman balance. These moisture- and vorticity-budget balances also hold in idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations across a range of climates.

By examining climate changes in the idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations, we are able to show the utility of the vertical motion P - E approximation for splitting changes in zonally anomalous P - E into thermodynamic and dynamic components. Shifts in divergent stationary-eddy circulations dominate changes in zonally anomalous P - E. This limits the local utility of the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” idea, where existing P - E patterns are amplified with warming by the increase in atmospheric moisture content, with atmospheric circulations held fixed. The increase in atmospheric moisture content manifests instead in an increase in the amplitude of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle as measured by the zonal variance of P - E. However, dynamic changes, particularly the slowdown of divergent stationary-eddy circulations, limit the strengthening of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle. In certain idealized cases, dynamic changes are even strong enough to reverse the tendency towards "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” with warming.

Motivated by the importance of stationary-eddy vertical velocities in the moisture budget analysis, we examine controls on the amplitude of stationary eddies across a wide range of climates in an idealized GCM with simple topographic and ocean-heating zonal asymmetries. An analysis of the thermodynamic equation in the vicinity of topographic forcing reveals the importance of on-slope surface winds, the midlatitude isentropic slope, and latent heating in setting the amplitude of stationary waves. The response of stationary eddies to climate change is determined primarily by the strength of zonal surface winds hitting the mountain. The sensitivity of stationary-eddies to this surface forcing increases with climate change as the slope of midlatitude isentropes decreases. However, latent heating also plays an important role in damping the stationary-eddy response, and this damping becomes stronger with warming as the atmospheric moisture content increases. We find that the response of tropical overturning circulations forced by ocean heat-flux convergence is described by changes in the vertical structure of moist static energy and deep convection. This is used to derive simple scalings for the Walker circulation strength that capture the monotonic decrease with warming found in our idealized simulations.

Through the work of this thesis, the advances made in understanding the amplitude of stationary-waves in a changing climate can be directly applied to better understand and predict changes in the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle.

A influência da deposição atmosférica da poeira mineral da Patagônia na biomassa fitoplanctônica do setor Atlântico do Oceano Austral

O Oceano Austral é a região oceânica de maior extensão em que os macronutrientes necessários à produção primária permanecem em níveis elevados por todo ano. Essa condição é conhecida como High Nutrient Low Clorophyll (HNLC) e é determinada, em grande parte, pela relativa escassez de micronutrientes, particularmente o ferro. Diversos experimentos comprovaram que a entrada de ferro neste sistema intensifica a produção biológica, aumentando a fixação do carbono e, eventualmente, sua exportação para águas profundas. Este fenômeno recebeu muita atenção nos últimos 20 anos devido a sua possível influencia no clima, via ciclo do carbono. A relação inversa entre concentração de CO2 na atmosfera e o fluxo de poeira mineral observados em registros glaciais da Antártica Central sugere que a deposição atmosférica pode ser uma importante via para o aporte de micronutrientes. Porém, a contribuição da deposição de poeira mineral para a produção primária nesta região permanece para ser demonstrada e seu possível papel no sistema climático ainda não é conclusivo. No caso do setor Atlântico do Oceano Austral, que recebe influência da Patagônia, os baixos fluxos modernos de poeira mineral e a baixa solubilidade do ferro associado à estrutura dos alumíniossilicato levam muitos autores a postular que fontes oceânicas de micronutrientes sejam mais determinantes. Faltam, no entanto, evidências experimentais. Neste trabalho, abordamos o estudo da fertilização do setor Atlântico do Oceano Austral pela poeira da Patagônia utilizando duas ferramentas: (1) o sensoriamento remoto orbital de aerossóis minerais e clorofila-a em escala interanual; e (2) um experimento de fertilização, com poeira da Patagônia, realizado na Passagem de Drake, considerando fluxos estimados para a era moderna e para o último glacial. Após doze dias de bioensaio, os tratamentos de adição de poeira mostraram a elevação da clorofila-a e da abundância de células em níveis acima dos controles. Níveis intermediários e maiores de adição não diferiram entre si na intensidade de resposta biológica, separando-se apenas da menor adição. Esses resultados indicam que a poeira da Patagônia, mesmo nos fluxos atuais, é capaz de prover os micronutrientes escassos na coluna dágua, com potencial para deflagrar aumentos significativos de biomassa. Através da análise por sensoriamento remoto, identificamos uma região de alta correlação entre poeira e clorofila-a, que está localizada entre a Frente Subtropical e a Frente Polar, se estendendo da Argentina ao sul da África. Esta região difere das águas ao sul da Frente Polar pela menor profundidade da camada de mistura, menor concentração de silicatos, baixa biomassa de diatomáceas e, estima-se, maior estresse fisiológico devido à escassez de ferro e menor aporte oceânico deste nutriente. Em conjunto, essas características parecem criar condições que tornam a resposta biológica mais sensível à deposição de poeira mineral. Estes resultados lançam nova luz sobre o controle atual da produção primária na região e sobre a hipótese da regulação climática pelo fitoplâncton no Oceano Austral, mediado pela deposição de poeira da Patagônia.

Climate-related hydrological regimes and their effects on abundance of juvenile blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the northcentral Gulf of Mexico

The abundance of juvenile blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the northcentral Gulf of Mexico was investigated in response to climate-related hydrological regimes. Two distinct periods of blue crab abundance (1, 1973–94 and 2, 1997–2005) were associated with two opposite climaterelated hydrological regimes. Period 1 was characterized by high numbers of crabs, whereas period 2 was characterized by low numbers of crabs. The cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and high north-south wind momentum were associated with period 1. Hydrological conditions associated with phases of the AMO and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in conjunction with the north-south wind momentum may favor blue crab productivity by influencing blue crab predation dynamics through the exclusion of predators. About 25% (22–28%) of the variability in blue crab abundance was explained by a north–south wind momentum in concert with either salinity, precipitation, or the Palmer drought severity index, or by a combination of the NAO and precip