Semiparametric Estimation of Models for Natural Direct and Indirect Effects

In recent years, researchers in the health and social sciences have become increasingly interested in mediation analysis. Specifically, upon establishing a non-null total effect of an exposure, investigators routinely wish to make inferences about the direct (indirect) pathway of the effect of the exposure not through (through) a mediator variable that occurs subsequently to the exposure and prior to the outcome. Natural direct and indirect effects are of particular interest as they generally combine to produce the total effect of the exposure and therefore provide insight on the mechanism by which it operates to produce the outcome. A semiparametric theory has recently been proposed to make inferences about marginal mean natural direct and indirect effects in observational studies (Tchetgen Tchetgen and Shpitser, 2011), which delivers multiply robust locally efficient estimators of the marginal direct and indirect effects, and thus generalizes previous results for total effects to the mediation setting. In this paper we extend the new theory to handle a setting in which a parametric model for the natural direct (indirect) effect within levels of pre-exposure variables is specified and the model for the observed data likelihood is otherwise unrestricted. We show that estimation is generally not feasible in this model because of the curse of dimensionality associated with the required estimation of auxiliary conditional densities or expectations, given high-dimensional covariates. We thus consider multiply robust estimation and propose a more general model which assumes a subset but not all of several working models holds.

Preference of dairy cows for ryegrass, white clover and red clover, and its effects on nutrient supply and milk quality

Two experiments were conducted with 30 dairy cows each, to study the preference for fresh (Experiment 1) and ensiled (Experiment 2) ryegrass, white and red clover. Both experiments consisted of three choice diets with white or red clover or both, offered with ryegrass, and two diets with ryegrass mixed with white or red clover (40% clover). Cows consumed diets with 37.7% fresh white and 45.9% red clover, and no preference was observed when the cows were offered all three forages. By contrast, cows preferred white and red clover silage (73.0 and 69.2%, respectively) over ryegrass silage (of lower nutritive quality). When offered three forages, cows preferred white (59.8%) over red clover (17.5%) and ryegrass (22.7%). Choice diets resulted in diets similar (fresh forages) or higher in nutrient content and digestibility (silages). Treatments did not affect feed intake and performance. Choices compared to mixed diets with red clover silage were preferable regarding the fatty acid composition of the milk fat. Obviously, only large differences in nutrient and energy concentration facilitate preferences for clovers over ryegrass, which could, depending on clover type, be beneficial in terms of the milk's fatty acid composition.

Vascular remodeling and antitumoral effects of mTOR inhibition in a rat model of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is amenable to only few treatments. Inhibitors of the kinase mTOR are a new class of immunosuppressors already in use after liver transplantation. Their antiproliferative and antiangiogenic properties suggest that these drugs could be considered to treat HCC. We investigated the antitumoral effects of mTOR inhibition in a HCC model. METHODS: Hepatoma cells were implanted into livers of syngeneic rats. Animals were treated with the mTOR inhibitor sirolimus for 4 weeks. Tumor growth was monitored by MR imaging. Antiangiogenic effects were assessed in vivo by microvessel density and corrosion casts and in vitro by cell proliferation, tube formation and aortic ring assays. RESULTS: Treated rats had significantly longer survival and developed smaller tumors, fewer extrahepatic metastases and less ascites than controls. Sirolimus decreased intratumoral microvessel density resulting in extensive necrosis. Endothelial cell proliferation was inhibited at lower drug concentrations than hepatoma cells. Tube formation and vascular sprouting of aortic rings were significantly impaired by mTOR inhibition. Casts revealed that in tumors treated with sirolimus vascular sprouting was absent, whereas intussusception was observed. CONCLUSIONS: mTOR inhibition significantly reduces HCC growth and improves survival primarily via antiangiogenic effects. Inhibitors of mTOR may have a role in HCC treatment.

Native EEG and treatment effects in neuroleptic-naïve schizophrenic patients: time and frequency domain approaches

Time domain analysis of electroencephalography (EEG) can identify subsecond periods of quasi-stable brain states. These so-called microstates assumingly correspond to basic units of cognition and emotion. On the other hand, Global Field Synchronization (GFS) is a frequency domain measure to estimate functional synchronization of brain processes on a global level for each EEG frequency band [Koenig, T., Lehmann, D., Saito, N., Kuginuki, T., Kinoshita, T., Koukkou, M., 2001. Decreased functional connectivity of EEG theta-frequency activity in first-episode, neuroleptic-naive patients with schizophrenia: preliminary results. Schizophr Res. 50, 55-60.]. Using these time and frequency domain analyzes, several previous studies reported shortened microstate duration in specific microstate classes and decreased GFS in theta band in drug naïve schizophrenia compared to controls. The purpose of this study was to investigate changes of these EEG parameters after drug treatment in drug naïve schizophrenia. EEG analysis was performed in 21 drug-naive patients and 21 healthy controls. 14 patients were reevaluated 2-8 weeks (mean 4.3) after the initiation of drug administration. The results extended findings of treatment effect on brain functions in schizophrenia, and imply that shortened duration of specific microstate classes seems a state marker especially in patients with later neuroleptic responsive, while lower theta GFS seems a state-related phenomenon and that higher gamma GFS is a trait like phenomenon.

The immediate and sustained effects of volume challenge on regional blood flows in pigs

BACKGROUND: The postoperative assessment of volume status is not straightforward because of concomitant changes in intravascular volume and vascular tone. Hypovolemia and blood flow redistribution may compromise the perfusion of the intraabdominal organs. We investigated the effects of a volume challenge in different intra- and extraabdominal vascular beds. METHODS: Twelve pigs were studied 6 h after major intraabdominal surgery under general anesthesia when clinically normovolemic. Volume challenges consisted of 200 mL rapidly infused 6% hydroxyethyl starch. Systemic (continuous thermodilution) and regional (ultrasound Doppler) flows in carotid, renal, celiac trunk, hepatic, and superior mesenteric arteries and the portal vein were continuously measured. The acute and sustained effects of the challenge were compared with baseline. RESULTS: Volume challenge produced a sustained increase of 22% +/- 15% in cardiac output (P < 0.001). Blood flow increased by 10% +/- 9% in the renal artery, by 22% +/- 15% in the carotid artery, by 26% +/- 15% in the superior mesenteric artery, and by 31% +/- 20% in the portal vein (all P < 0.001). Blood flow increases in the celiac trunk (8% +/- 13%) and the hepatic artery (7% +/- 19%) were not significant. Increases in regional blood flow occurred early and were sustained. Mean arterial and central venous blood pressures increased early and decreased later (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: A volume challenge in clinically euvolemic postoperative animals was associated with a sustained increase in blood flow to all vascular beds, although the increase in the celiac trunk and the hepatic artery was very modest and did not reach statistical significance. Whether improved postoperative organ perfusion is accompanied by a lower complication rate should be evaluated in further studies.

Patient satisfaction and side effects in primary care: An observational study comparing homeopathy and conventional medicine

Background This study is part of a nationwide evaluation of complementary medicine in Switzerland (Programme Evaluation of Complementary Medicine PEK) and was funded by the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health. The main objective of this study is to investigate patient satisfaction and perception of side effects in homeopathy compared with conventional care in a primary care setting. Methods We examined data from two cross-sectional studies conducted in 2002–2003. The first study was a physician questionnaire assessing structural characteristics of practices. The second study was conducted on four given days during a 12-month period in 2002/2003 using a physician and patient questionnaire at consultation and a patient questionnaire mailed to the patient one month later (including Europep questionnaire). The participating physicians were all trained and licensed in conventional medicine. An additional qualification was required for medical doctors providing homeopathy (membership in the Swiss association of homeopathic physicians SVHA). Results A total of 6778 adult patients received the questionnaire and 3126 responded (46.1%). Statistically significant differences were found with respect to health status (higher percentage of chronic and severe conditions in the homeopathic group), perception of side effects (higher percentage of reported side effects in the conventional group) and patient satisfaction (higher percentage of satisfied patients in the homeopathic group). Conclusion Overall patient satisfaction was significantly higher in homeopathic than in conventional care. Homeopathic treatments were perceived as a low-risk therapy with two to three times fewer side effects than conventional care

Training in hypoxia and its effects on skeletal muscle tissue

It is well established that local muscle tissue hypoxia is an important consequence and possibly a relevant adaptive signal of endurance exercise training in humans. It has been reasoned that it might be advantageous to increase this exercise stimulus by working in hypoxia. However, as long-term exposure to severe hypoxia has been shown to be detrimental to muscle tissue, experimental protocols were developed that expose subjects to hypoxia only for the duration of the exercise session and allow recovery in normoxia (live low-train high or hypoxic training). This overview reports data from 27 controlled studies using some implementation of hypoxic training paradigms. Hypoxia exposure varied between 2300 and 5700 m and training duration ranged from 10 days to 8 weeks. A similar number of studies was carried out on untrained and on trained subjects. Muscle structural, biochemical and molecular findings point to a specific role of hypoxia in endurance training. However, based on the available data on global estimates of performance capacity such as maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) and maximal power output (Pmax), hypoxia as a supplement to training is not consistently found to be of advantage for performance at sea level. There is some evidence mainly from studies on untrained subjects for an advantage of hypoxic training for performance at altitude. Live low-train high may be considered when altitude acclimatization is not an option.

Clinical and immunologic effects of H1 antihistamine preventive medication during honeybee venom immunotherapy

BACKGROUND: H1 antihistamines increase safety during allergen-specific immunotherapy and might influence the outcome because of immunoregulatory effects. OBJECTIVE: We sought to analyze the influence of 5 mg of levocetirizine (LC) on the safety, efficacy, and immunologic effects of ultrarush honeybee venom immunotherapy (BVIT). METHOD: In a double-blind, placebo-controlled study 54 patients with honeybee venom allergy received LC or placebo from 2 days before BVIT to day 21. Side effects during dose increase and systemic allergic reactions (SARs) to a sting challenge after 120 days were analyzed. Allergen-specific immune response was investigated in skin, serum, and allergen-stimulated T-cell cultures. RESULTS: Side effects were significantly more frequent in patients receiving placebo. Four patients receiving placebo dropped out because of side effects. SARs to the sting challenge occurred in 8 patients (6 in the LC group and 2 in the placebo group). Seven SARs were only cutaneous, and 1 in the placebo group was also respiratory. Difference of SARs caused by the sting challenge was insignificant. Specific IgG levels increased significantly in both groups. Major allergen phospholipase A(2)-stimulated T cells from both groups showed a slightly decreased proliferation. The decrease in IFN-gamma and IL-13 levels with placebo was not prominent with LC, whereas IL-10 levels showed a significant increase in the LC group only. Decreased histamine receptor (HR)1/HR2 ratio in allergen-specific T cells on day 21 in the placebo group was prevented by LC. CONCLUSIONS: LC reduces side effects during dose increase without influencing the efficacy of BVIT. LC modulates the natural course of allergen-specific immune response and affects the expression of HRs and cytokine production by allergen-specific T cells.

Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

Analysis of atmospheric transport and the effects of seasonal and interannual transport variability on measurements made at the Pico Mountain observatory

A non-hierarchical K-means algorithm is used to cluster 47 years (1960–2006) of 10-day HYSPLIT backward trajectories to the Pico Mountain (PM) observatory on a seasonal basis. The resulting cluster centers identify the major transport pathways and collectively comprise a long-term climatology of transport to the observatory. The transport climatology improves our ability to interpret the observations made there and our understanding of pollution source regions to the station and the central North Atlantic region. I determine which pathways dominate transport to the observatory and examine the impacts of these transport patterns on the O3, NOy, NOx, and CO measurements made there during 2001–2006. Transport from the U.S., Canada, and the Atlantic most frequently reaches the station, but Europe, east Africa, and the Pacific can also contribute significantly depending on the season. Transport from Canada was correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in spring and winter, and transport from the Pacific was uncorrelated with the NAO. The highest CO and O3 are observed during spring. Summer is also characterized by high CO and O3 and the highest NOy and NOx of any season. Previous studies at the station attributed the summer time high CO and O3 to transport of boreal wildfire emissions (for 2002–2004), and boreal fires continued to affect the station during 2005 and 2006. The particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to calculate anthropogenic and biomass-burning CO tracer values at the station in an attempt to identify the regions responsible for the high CO and O3 observations during spring and biomass-burning impacts in summer.

Entropy and bispectral index for assessment of sedation, analgesia and the effects of unpleasant stimuli in critically ill patients: an observational study

INTRODUCTION: Sedative and analgesic drugs are frequently used in critically ill patients. Their overuse may prolong mechanical ventilation and length of stay in the intensive care unit. Guidelines recommend use of sedation protocols that include sedation scores and trials of sedation cessation to minimize drug use. We evaluated processed electroencephalography (response and state entropy and bispectral index) as an adjunct to monitoring effects of commonly used sedative and analgesic drugs and intratracheal suctioning. METHODS: Electrodes for monitoring bispectral index and entropy were placed on the foreheads of 44 critically ill patients requiring mechanical ventilation and who previously had no brain dysfunction. Sedation was targeted individually using the Ramsay Sedation Scale, recorded every 2 hours or more frequently. Use of and indications for sedative and analgesic drugs and intratracheal suctioning were recorded manually and using a camera. At the end of the study, processed electroencephalographical and haemodynamic variables collected before and after each drug application and tracheal suctioning were analyzed. Ramsay score was used for comparison with processed electroencephalography when assessed within 15 minutes of an intervention. RESULTS: The indications for boli of sedative drugs exhibited statistically significant, albeit clinically irrelevant, differences in terms of their association with processed electroencephalographical parameters. Electroencephalographical variables decreased significantly after bolus, but a specific pattern in electroencephalographical variables before drug administration was not identified. The same was true for opiate administration. At both 30 minutes and 2 minutes before intratracheal suctioning, there was no difference in electroencephalographical or clinical signs in patients who had or had not received drugs 10 minutes before suctioning. Among patients who received drugs, electroencephalographical parameters returned to baseline more rapidly. In those cases in which Ramsay score was assessed before the event, processed electroencephalography exhibited high variation. CONCLUSIONS: Unpleasant or painful stimuli and sedative and analgesic drugs are associated with significant changes in processed electroencephalographical parameters. However, clinical indications for drug administration were not reflected by these electroencephalographical parameters, and barely by sedation level before drug administration or tracheal suction. This precludes incorporation of entropy and bispectral index as target variables for sedation and analgesia protocols in critically ill patients.

UNDERSTANDING FARMERS’ PERCEPTIONS AND THE EFFECTS OF SHEA TREE Vitellaria paradoxa DISTRIBUTION IN AGROFORESTRY PARKLANDS OF THE UPPER WEST REGION, GHANA

Agroforestry parklands represent a vast majority of the agricultural landscape under subsistent-oriented farming in semi-arid West Africa. Parklands are characterized by the growth of well- maintained trees (e.g., shea) on cultivated fields as a result of both environmental and human influences. Shea (Vitellaria paradoxa) provides a cultural and economic benefit to the local people of Ghana, especially women. Periods between traditional fallow rotation systems have reduced recently due to agricultural development and a demand for higher production. As a result, shea trees, which regenerate during fallow periods, has decreased over the landscape. The aim of this study was to determine beneficial spatial distributions of V. paradoxa to maintain high yields of staple crops, and how management of V. paradoxa will differ between male and female farmers as a result of farmer based needs and use of shea. Vegetation growth and grain yield of maize (Zea mays) associated with individual trees, clumped trees, and open fields were measured. Soil moisture and light availability were also measured to determine how V. paradoxa affected resource availability of maize in either clumped or scattered distributions of V. paradoxa. As expected, light availability increased as measurement locations moved farther away from all trees. However, soil moisture was actually greater under trees in clumps than under individual trees. Maize stalk height and cob length showed no difference between clumped and single trees at each measurement location. Grain yield per plot and per cob increased as measurement locations moved farther from single trees, but was actually greater near clumped trees that in the open field subplots. Cob length and maize stalk height increased with greater light availability, but grain yield per cob or per plot showed no relationship with light, but were not affected by soil moisture. Conversely, grain yield increased with increasing soil moisture, but had no relationship with light availability. Initial farming capital is the largest constraint to female farmers; therefore the collection of shea can help provide women with added income that could meet their specific farming needs. Our data indicate that overall effects of maintaining clumped distributions of V. paradoxa provided beneficial microclimates for staple crops when compared to single trees. It is recommended that male and female farmers allow shea to grow in clumped spatial distributions rather than maintaining scattered, individual trees.

Antiaggregatory and proangiogenic effects of a novel recombinant human dual specificity anti-integrin antibody

BACKGROUND: beta(3)-Integrins are involved in platelet aggregation via alpha(IIb)beta(3) [glycoprotein (GP)IIb-GPIIIa], and in angiogenesis via endothelial alpha(V)beta(3). Cross-reactive ligands with antiaggregatory and proangiogenic effects, both desirable in peripheral vasculopathies, have not yet been described. OBJECTIVES: In vitro and in vivo characterization of antiaggregatory and proangiogenic effects of two recombinant human Fab fragments, with emphasis on beta(3)-integrins. METHODS: Recombinant Fab fragments were obtained by phage display technology. Specificity, affinity and IC(50) were determined by immunodot assays, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and Scatchard plot analysis, and by means of human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs). Functional analyses included ELISA for interaction with fibrinogen binding to GPIIb-GPIIIa, flow cytometry for measurement of activation parameters and competitive inhibition experiments, human platelet aggregometry, and proliferation, tube formation and the chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) assay for measurement of angiogenic effects. RESULTS: We observed specific and high-affinity binding to an intact GPIIb-GPIIIa receptor complex of two human Fab autoantibody fragments, with no platelet activation. Dose-dependent fibrinogen binding to GPIIb-GPIIIa and platelet aggregation were completely inhibited. One Fab fragment was competitively inhibited by abciximab and its murine analog monoclonal antibody (mAb) 7E3, whereas the other Fab fragment bound to cultured HUVECs, suggesting cross-reactivity with alpha(V)beta(3), and also demonstrated proangiogenic effects in tube formation and CAM assays. CONCLUSIONS: These Fab fragments are the first entirely human anti-GPIIb-GPIIIa Fab fragments with full antiaggregatory properties; furthermore, they do not activate platelets. The unique dual-specificity anti-beta(3)-integrin Fab fragment may represent a new tool for the study and management of peripheral arterial vasculopathies.

Haemodynamic and arrhythmic effects of moderately cold (22 degrees C) water immersion and swimming in patients with stable coronary artery disease and heart failure

AIMS: Data on moderately cold water immersion and occurrence of arrhythmias in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients are scarce. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined 22 male patients, 12 with CHF [mean age 59 years, ejection fraction (EF) 32%, NYHA class II] and 10 patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) without CHF (mean age 65 years, EF 52%). Haemodynamic effects of water immersion and swimming in warm (32 degrees C) and moderately cold (22 degrees C) water were measured using an inert gas rebreathing method. The occurrence of arrhythmias during water activities was compared with those measured during a 24 h ECG recording. Rate pressure product during water immersion up to the chest was significantly higher in moderately cold (P = 0.043 in CHF, P = 0.028 in CAD patients) compared with warm water, but not during swimming. Rate pressure product reached 14200 in CAD and 12 400 in CHF patients during swimming. Changes in cardiac index (increase by 5-15%) and oxygen consumption (increase up to 20%) were of similar magnitude in moderately cold and warm water. Premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) increased significantly in moderately cold water from 15 +/- 41 to 76 +/- 163 beats per 30 min in CHF (P = 0.013) but not in CAD patients (20 +/- 33 vs. 42 +/- 125 beats per 30 min, P = 0.480). No ventricular tachycardia was noted. CONCLUSION: Patients with compensated CHF tolerate water immersion and swimming in moderately cold water well. However, the increase in PVCs raises concerns about the potential danger of high-grade ventricular arrhythmias.