Short and long-term effects of tillage systems and nutrient sources on soil physical properties of a Southern Brazilian Hapludox

Soil tillage promotes changes in soil structure. The magnitude of the changes varies with the nature of the soil, tillage system and soil water content and decreases over time after tillage. The objective of this study was to evaluate short-term (one year period) and long-term (nine year period) effects of soil tillage and nutrient sources on some physical properties of a very clayey Hapludox. Five tillage systems were evaluated: no-till (NT), chisel plow + one secondary disking (CP), primary + two (secondary) diskings (CT), CT with burning of crop residues (CTb), and CT with removal of crop residues from the field (CTr), in combination with five nutrient sources: control without nutrient application (C); mineral fertilizers, according to technical recommendations for each crop (MF); 5 Mg ha-1 yr-1 of poultry litter (wetmatter) (PL); 60 m³ ha-1 yr-1 of cattle slurry (CS) and; 40 m³ ha-1 yr-1 of swine slurry (SS). Bulk density (BD), total porosity (TP), and parameters related to the water retention curve (macroporosity, mesoporosity and microporosity) were determined after nine years and at five sampling dates during the tenth year of the experiment. Soil physical properties were tillage and time-dependent. Tilled treatments increased total porosity and macroporosity, and reduced bulk density in the surface layer (0.00-0.05 m), but this effect decreased over time after tillage operations due to natural soil reconsolidation, since no external stress was applied in this period. Changes in pore size distribution were more pronounced in larger and medium pore diameter classes. The bulk density was greatest in intermediate layers in all tillage treatments (0.05-0.10 and 0.12-0.17 m) and decreased down to the deepest layer (0.27-0.32 m), indicating a more compacted layer around 0.05-0.20 m. Nutrient sources did not significantly affect soil physical and hydraulic properties studied.

Short- and long-term changes in chromosomal inversion polymorphism and global warming: Drosophila subobscura from the Balkans

The chromosomal inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura is adaptive to environmental changes. The population of Petnica, Serbia, was chosen to analyze short- and long-term changes in this polymorphism. Short-term changes were studied in the samples collected in May, June, and August of 1995. The inversion polymorphism varied over these months, although various interpretations are possible. To analyze long-term changes, samples obtained in May 1995 and May 2010 were compared. The frequency of the 'cold' adapted inversions (Ast, Jst, Ust, Est, and Ost) decreased and that of the 'warm' adapted inversions (A2, J1, U1+2, and O3+4) increased, from 1995 to 2010. These changes are consistent with the general increase in temperature recorded in Petnica for the same period. Finally, the possible response of chromosomal polymorphism to global warming was analyzed at the regional level (Balkan peninsula). This polymorphism depends on the ecological conditions of the populations, and the changes observed appear to be consistent with global warming expectations. Natural selection seems to be the main mechanism responsible for the evolution of this chromosomal polymorphism.

Short- and long-term changes in chromosomal inversion polymorphism and global warming: Drosophila subobscura from the Balkans

The chromosomal inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura is adaptive to environmental changes. The population of Petnica, Serbia, was chosen to analyze short- and long-term changes in this polymorphism. Short-term changes were studied in the samples collected in May, June, and August of 1995. The inversion polymorphism varied over these months, although various interpretations are possible. To analyze long-term changes, samples obtained in May 1995 and May 2010 were compared. The frequency of the 'cold' adapted inversions (Ast, Jst, Ust, Est, and Ost) decreased and that of the 'warm' adapted inversions (A2, J1, U1+2, and O3+4) increased, from 1995 to 2010. These changes are consistent with the general increase in temperature recorded in Petnica for the same period. Finally, the possible response of chromosomal polymorphism to global warming was analyzed at the regional level (Balkan peninsula). This polymorphism depends on the ecological conditions of the populations, and the changes observed appear to be consistent with global warming expectations. Natural selection seems to be the main mechanism responsible for the evolution of this chromosomal polymorphism.

Establishing Load Transfer in Existing Jointed Concrete Pavements, HR-1041, 1985

In this paper are described the results of a research project that had the objective of developing construction procedures for restoring load transfer in existing jointed concrete pavements and of evaluating the effectiveness of the restoration methods. A total of 28 test sections with various load transfer devices were placed. The devices include split pipe, figure eight, vee, double vee, and dowel bars. Patching materials used on the project included three types of fast-setting grouts, three brands of polymer concrete, and plain portland cement concrete. The number and spacing of the devices and dowel bars were also variables in the project. Dowel bars and double vee devices were used on the major portion of the project. Performance evaluations were based on deflection tests conducted with a 20,000-lb axle load. Horizontal joint movement measurements and visual observations were also made. The short-term performance data indicate good results with the dowel bar installations regardless of patching materials. The sections with split pipe, figure eight, and vee devices failed in bond during the first winter cycle. The results with the double vee sections indicate the importance of the patching material to the success or failure of the load transfer system: some sections are performing well and other sections are performing poorly with double vee devices. Horizontal joint movement measurements indicate that neither the dowel bars nor the double vee devices are restricting joint movement.

The offspring of the diabetic mother--short- and long-term implications.

In the 1980s, David Barker and Colleagues proposed that the major causes of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases have their roots in early development. There is now robust evidence that an hyperglycemic intrauterine environment is responsible not only for significant short-term morbidity in the fetus and the neonate but also for an increased risk of developing diabetes as well as other chronic, noncommunicable diseases at adulthood. The risk is higher in pregestational diabetes, but unrecognized and/or poorly managed gestational diabetes (GDM) may have similar consequences. Although a relatively clear picture of the pathogenesis of the fetal and neonatal complications of maternal diabetes and of their interrelationship is available today, the intimate molecular mechanisms involved in the long term are far from being understood. While the rate of GDM is sharply increasing in association with the pandemic of obesity and of type 2 diabetes over the world, we review here the current understanding of short- and long-term outcomes of fetuses exposed to a diabetic environment.

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

Pituitary-thyroid axis in short- and long-term experimental diabetes mellitus

Short-term experimental diabetes mellitus (DM) produces a significant decrease in serum thyroid hormones, a decreased or normal serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and a reduction in hepatic and renal T4-5'-deiodination. However, little is known about the effects of chronic diabetes mellitus on the pituitary-thyroid axis function. We evaluated the changes induced by very short-term (6 days), short-term (15 days) and chronic (6 months) streptozotocin-induced diabetes mellitus in 3-month old female Dutch-Miranda rat serum T4, serum TSH and T4-5'-deiodinase activity in the thyroid and pituitary glands. Serum hormones were determined by specific radioimmunoassays. Iodothyronine-5'-deiodinase activities were assayed in the thyroid and pituitary microsomal fractions using 2 µM T4 as substrate. Mean serum T4 was significantly decreased from 3.3 to 2.0 µg/dl 6 days after diabetes mellitus induction, and from 2.2 to 1.5 µg/dl after 15 days of DM, with no significant changes in serum TSH, indicating a decreased pituitary TSH responsiveness to the diminished suppression by T4, even though pituitary T4-5'-deiodinase activity was unchanged. Thyroid T4-5'-deiodinase was unchanged after 6 days of diabetes mellitus, but was significantly increased from 20.6 to 37.0 pmol T3/mg protein after 15 days. Six months after diabetes mellitus induction, both serum T4 and thyroid T4-5'-deiodinase returned to normal ranges and serum TSH was unchanged, although pituitary T4-5'-deiodinase was now significantly decreased from 2.7 to 1.7 pmol T3/mg protein. These findings indicate that some kind of adaptation to chronic insulinopenia may occur at the thyroid level, but this does not seem to be true for the pituitary

Aberrant crypt foci and colon cancer: comparison between a short- and medium-term bioassay for colon carcinogenesis using dimethylhydrazine in Wistar rats

Aberrant crypt foci (ACF) in the colon of carcinogen-treated rodents are considered to be the earliest hallmark of colon carcinogenesis. In the present study the relationship between a short-term (4 weeks) and medium-term (30 weeks) assay was assessed in a model of colon carcinogenesis induced by dimethylhydrazine (DMH) in the rat. Six-week-old male Wistar rats were given subcutaneous injections of DMH (40 mg/kg) twice a week for 2 weeks and killed at the end of the 4th or 30th week. ACF were scored for number, distribution pattern along the colon and crypt multiplicity in 0.1% methylene-blue whole-mount preparations. ACF were distinguished from normal crypts by their larger size and elliptical shape. The incidence, distribution and morphology of colon tumors were recorded. The majority of ACF were present in the middle and distal colon of DMH-treated rats and their number increased with time. By the 4th week, 91.5% ACF were composed of one or two crypts and 8.5% had three or more crypts, while by the 30th week 46.9% ACF had three or more crypts. Thus, a progression of ACF consisting of multiple crypts was observed from the 4th to the 30th week. Nine well-differentiated adenocarcinomas were found in 10 rats by the 30th week. Seven tumors were located in the distal colon and two in the middle colon. No tumor was found in the proximal colon. The present data indicate that induction of ACF by DMH in the short-term (4 weeks) assay was correlated with development of well-differentiated adenocarcinomas in the medium-term (30 weeks) assay.

Differential role of entorhinal and hippocampal nerve growth factor in short- and long-term memory modulation

We studied the effects of infusion of nerve growth factor (NGF) into the hippocampus and entorhinal cortex of male Wistar rats (250-300 g, N = 11-13 per group) on inhibitory avoidance retention. In order to evaluate the modulation of entorhinal and hippocampal NGF in short- and long-term memory, animals were implanted with cannulae in the CA1 area of the dorsal hippocampus or entorhinal cortex and trained in one-trial step-down inhibitory avoidance (foot shock, 0.4 mA). Retention tests were carried out 1.5 h or 24 h after training to measure short- and long-term memory, respectively. Immediately after training, rats received 5 µl NGF (0.05, 0.5 or 5.0 ng) or saline per side into the CA1 area and entorhinal cortex. The correct position of the cannulae was confirmed by histological analysis. The highest dose of NGF (5.0 ng) into the hippocampus blocked short-term memory (P < 0.05), whereas the doses of 0.5 (P < 0.05) and 5.0 ng (P < 0.01) NGF enhanced long-term memory. NGF administration into the entorhinal cortex improved long-term memory at the dose of 5.0 ng (P < 0.05) and did not alter short-term memory. Taken as a whole, our results suggest a differential modulation by entorhinal and hippocampal NGF of short- and long-term memory.

Errors in nonword repetition: bridging short- and long-term memory

According to the working memory model, the phonological loop is the component of working memory specialized in processing and manipulating limited amounts of speech-based information. The Children's Test of Nonword Repetition (CNRep) is a suitable measure of phonological short-term memory for English-speaking children, which was validated by the Brazilian Children's Test of Pseudoword Repetition (BCPR) as a Portuguese-language version. The objectives of the present study were: i) to investigate developmental aspects of the phonological memory processing by error analysis in the nonword repetition task, and ii) to examine phoneme (substitution, omission and addition) and order (migration) errors made in the BCPR by 180 normal Brazilian children of both sexes aged 4-10, from preschool to 4th grade. The dominant error was substitution [F(3,525) = 180.47; P < 0.0001]. The performance was age-related [F(4,175) = 14.53; P < 0.0001]. The length effect, i.e., more errors in long than in short items, was observed [F(3,519) = 108.36; P < 0.0001]. In 5-syllable pseudowords, errors occurred mainly in the middle of the stimuli, before the syllabic stress [F(4,16) = 6.03; P = 0.003]; substitutions appeared more at the end of the stimuli, after the stress [F(12,48) = 2.27; P = 0.02]. In conclusion, the BCPR error analysis supports the idea that phonological loop capacity is relatively constant during development, although school learning increases the efficiency of this system. Moreover, there are indications that long-term memory contributes to holding memory trace. The findings were discussed in terms of distinctiveness, clustering and redintegration hypotheses.

A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting Heat Load in a District Heating System

The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.

Resuming growth in Latin America: short and long term policies

The authors of this paper assert that the paralysis of the state generated by the crises of the 1970s and 1980s deprived the economies of the region of an important lever to resume and sustain growth. They thus maintain that to overcome stagnation it will be necessary to reconstruct the state's capacity to implement pro-growth policies. Following Keynes and Kalecki's ideas, but also classical development economists, the authors argue, first, that short-term macroeconomic policies, to reduce unemployment and to increase the degree of capacity utilization, should be used to promote the generation of profits to firms and to wake up entrepreneurs' animal spirits. Short-term expansionary policies should be coupled with measures to improve competitiveness and avoid balance of payments problems. They also claim that alternatives to the liberal programme will fail unless a pro-growth strategy is adopted which includes both short- and long-term policies. They thus propose that long-term policies must complete the package, signaling: a) sustained increases of effective demand in the future; and b) investment priorities to ensure that capacities will be created in strategic sectors and branches of the economy.

Some Implications of the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates for the Term Structure and Monetary Policy

In an economy where cash can be stored costlessly (in nominal terms), the nominal interest rate is bounded below by zero. This paper derives the implications of this nonnegativity constraint for the term structure and shows that it induces a nonlinear and convex relation between short- and long-term interest rates. As a result, the long-term rate responds asymmetrically to changes in the short-term rate, and by less than predicted by a benchmark linear model. In particular, a decrease in the short-term rate leads to a decrease in the long-term rate that is smaller in magnitude than the increase in the long-term rate associated with an increase in the short-term rate of the same size. Up to the extent that monetary policy acts by affecting long-term rates through the term structure, its power is considerably reduced at low interest rates. The empirical predictions of the model are examined using data from Japan.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression 2. Impact on the mother-child relationship and child outcome

Background: Postnatal depression is associated with adverse child cognitive and socio-emotional outcome. It is not known whether psychological treatment affects the quality of the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Aims: To evaluate the effect of three psychological treatments on the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193) were assigned randomly to routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy The women and their children, were assessed at 43, [8 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Indications of a positive benefit were limited. All three treatments had a significant benefit on maternal reports of early difficulties in relationships with the infants, counselling gave better infant emotional and behaviour ratings at 18 months and more sensitive early mother-infant interactions. The treatments had no significant impact on maternal management of early infant behaviour problems, security of infant-mother attachment. Infant cognitive development or any child outcome at 5 years. Conclusions: Early intervention was of short-term benefit to the mother-child relationship and infant behaviour problems. More-prolonged intervention may be needed. Health visitors could deliver this.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression - 1. Impact on maternal mood!

Background: Psychological interventions for postnatal depression can be beneficial in the short term but their longer-term impact is unknown, Aims To evaluate the long-term effect on maternal mood of three psychological treatments in relation to routine primary care. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193)were assigned randomly to one of four conditions: routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy. They were assessed immediately after the treatment phase (at 4.5 months) and at 18 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Compared with the control, ail three treatments had a significant impact at 4.5 months on maternal mood (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, EPDS). Only psychodynamic therapy produced a rate of reduction in depression (Structured Clinical interview for DSM III-R) significantly superior to that of the control. The benefit of treatment was no longer apparent by 9 months postpartum, treatment did not reduce subsequent episodes of post-partum depression. Conclusions: Psychological intervention for post-partum depression improves maternal mood (EPDS) in the short term. However, this benefit is not superior to spontaneous remission in the long term.