Forecasting the term structure when short-term rates are near zero

This paper compares the experience of forecasting the UK government bond yield curve before and after the dramatic lowering of short-term interest rates from October 2008. Out-of-sample forecasts for 1, 6 and 12 months are generated from each of a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, autoregressive models for both yields and the principal components extracted from those yields, a slope regression and a random walk model. At short forecasting horizons, there is little difference in the performance of the models both prior to and after 2008. However, for medium- to longer-term horizons, the slope regression provided the best forecasts prior to 2008, while the recent experience of near-zero short interest rates coincides with a period of forecasting superiority for the autoregressive and dynamic Nelson-Siegel models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of short-term detraining on postprandial metabolism, endothelial function, and inflammation in endurance-trained men:dissociation between changes in triglyceride metabolism and endothelial function

Endurance-trained athletes experience a low level of postprandial lipaemia, but this rapidly increases with detraining. We sought to determine whether detraining-induced changes to postprandial metabolism influenced endothelial function and inflammation. Eight endurance-trained men each undertook two oral fat tolerance tests [blood taken fasted and for 6 h following a high-fat test meal (80 g fat, 80 g carbohydrate)]: one during a period of their normal training (trained) and one after 1 wk of no exercise (detrained). Endothelial function in the cutaneous microcirculation was assessed using laser Doppler imaging with iontophoresis in the fasted state and 4 h postprandially during each test. Fasting plasma triglyceride (TG) concentrations increased by 35% with detraining (P = 0.002), as did postprandial plasma (by 53%, P = 0.002), chylomicron (by 68%, P = 0.02) and very low-density lipoprotein (by 51%, P = 0.005) TG concentrations. Endothelial function decreased postprandially in both the trained (by 17%, P = 0.03) and detrained (by 22%, P = 0.03) conditions but did not differ significantly between the trained and detrained conditions in either the fasted or the postprandial states. These results suggest that, although fat ingestion induces endothelial dysfunction, interventions that alter postprandial TG metabolism will not necessarily concomitantly influence endothelial function.

Maximization of a Linear Utility Function over the Set of the Housing Market Short-Term Equilibria

AMS subject classification: 90C05, 90A14.

Short-term wind power forecasting using Gaussian processes

Since wind has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safety and economics of wind energy utilization. In this paper, we investigate a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: one-day-ahead wind power forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. Firstly the wind speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP. Then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due the turbine controlling strategy, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output. To validate the proposed approach, two real world datasets were used for model construction and testing. The simulation results were compared with the persistence method and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs); the proposed model achieves about 11% improvement in forecasting accuracy (Mean Absolute Error) compared to the ANN model on one dataset, and nearly 5% improvement on another.

Short-term stability in refractive status despite large fluctuations in glucose levels in diabetes mellitus type 1 and 2

Purpose: This work investigates how short-term changes in blood glucose concentration affect the refractive components of the diabetic eye in patients with long-term Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. Methods: Blood glucose concentration, refractive error components (mean spherical equivalent MSE, J0, J45), central corneal thickness (CCT), anterior chamber depth (ACD), crystalline lens thickness (LT), axial length (AL) and ocular aberrations were monitored at two-hourly intervals over a 12-hour period in: 20 T1DM patients (mean age ± SD) 38±14 years, baseline HbA1c 8.6±1.9%; 21 T2DM patients (mean age ± SD) 56±11 years, HbA1c 7.5±1.8%; and in 20 control subjects (mean age ± SD) 49±23 years, HbA1c 5.5±0.5%. The refractive and biometric results were compared with the corresponding changes in blood glucose concentration. Results: Blood glucose concentration at different times was found to vary significantly within (p<0.0005) and between groups (p<0.0005). However, the refractive error components and ocular aberrations were not found to alter significantly over the day in either the diabetic patients or the control subjects (p>0.05). Minor changes of marginal statistical or optical significance were observed in some biometric parameters. Similarly there were some marginally significant differences between the baseline biometric parameters of well-controlled and poorly-controlled diabetic subjects. Conclusion: This work suggests that normal, short-term fluctuations (of up to about 6 mM/l on a timescale of a few hours) in the blood glucose levels of diabetics are not usually associated with acute changes in refractive error or ocular wavefront aberrations. It is therefore possible that factors other than refractive error fluctuations are sometimes responsible for the transient visual problems often reported by diabetic patients. © 2012 Huntjens et al.

Short-term changes in phosphorus storage in an oligotrophic Everglades wetland ecosystem receiving experimental nutrient enrichment

Natural, unenriched Everglades wetlands are known to be limited by phosphorus (P) and responsive to P enrichment. However, whole-ecosystem evaluations of experimental P additions are rare in Everglades or other wetlands. We tested the response of the Everglades wetland ecosystem to continuous, low-level additions of P (0, 5, 15, and 30 μg L−1 above ambient) in replicate, 100 m flow-through flumes located in unenriched Everglades National Park. After the first six months of dosing, the concentration and standing stock of phosphorus increased in the surface water, periphyton, and flocculent detrital layer, but not in the soil or macrophytes. Of the ecosystem components measured, total P concentration increased the most in the floating periphyton mat (30 μg L−1: mean = 1916 μg P g−1, control: mean = 149 μg P g−1), while the flocculent detrital layer stored most of the accumulated P (30 μg L−1: mean = 1.732 g P m−2, control: mean = 0.769 g P m−2). Significant short-term responses of P concentration and standing stock were observed primarily in the high dose (30 μg L−1 above ambient) treatment. In addition, the biomass and estimated P standing stock of aquatic consumers increased in the 30 and 5 μg L−1 treatments. Alterations in P concentration and standing stock occurred only at the upstream ends of the flumes nearest to the point source of added nutrient. The total amount of P stored by the ecosystem within the flume increased with P dosing, although the ecosystem in the flumes retained only a small proportion of the P added over the first six months. These results indicate that oligotrophic Everglades wetlands respond rapidly to short-term, low-level P enrichment, and the initial response is most noticeable in the periphyton and flocculent detrital layer.

Ecosystem Structure and Function Still Altered Two Decades After Short-Term Fertilization of a Seagrass Meadow

An oligotrophic phosphorus (P) limited seagrass ecosystem in Florida Bay was experimentally fertilized in a unique way. Perches were installed to encourage seabirds to roost and deliver an external source of nutrients via defecation. Two treatments were examined: (1) a chronic 23-year fertilization and (2) an earlier 28-month fertilization that was discontinued when the chronic treatment was initiated. Because of the low mobility of P in carbonate sediments, we hypothesized long-term changes to ecosystem structure and function in both treatments. Structural changes in the chronic treatment included a shift in the dominant seagrass species from Thalassia testudinum to Halodule wrightii, large increases in epiphytic biomass and sediment chlorophyll-a, and a decline in species richness. Functional changes included increased benthic metabolism and quantum efficiency. Initial changes in the 28-month fertilization were similar, but after 23 years of nutrient depuration T. testudinum has reestablished itself as the dominant species. However, P remains elevated in the sediment and H. wrightii has maintained a presence. Functionally the discontinued treatment remains altered. Biomass exceeds that in the chronic treatment and indices of productivity, elevated relative to control, are not different from the chronic fertilization. Cessation of nutrient loading has resulted in a superficial return to the pre-disturbance character of the community, but due to the nature of P cycles functional changes persist.

Short-term changes in phosphorus storage in an oligotrophic Everglades wetland ecosystem receiving experimental nutrient enrichment

Natural, unenriched Evergladeswetlands are known to be limited by phosphorus(P) and responsive to P enrichment. However,whole-ecosystem evaluations of experimental Padditions are rare in Everglades or otherwetlands. We tested the response of theEverglades wetland ecosystem to continuous,low-level additions of P (0, 5, 15, and30 μg L−1 above ambient) in replicate,100 m flow-through flumes located in unenrichedEverglades National Park. After the first sixmonths of dosing, the concentration andstanding stock of phosphorus increased in thesurface water, periphyton, and flocculentdetrital layer, but not in the soil or macrophytes. Of the ecosystem components measured, total P concentration increased the most in the floating periphyton mat (30 μg L−1: mean = 1916 μg P g−1, control: mean =149 μg P g−1), while the flocculentdetrital layer stored most of the accumulated P(30 μg L−1: mean = 1.732 g P m−2,control: mean = 0.769 g P m−2). Significant short-term responsesof P concentration and standing stock wereobserved primarily in the high dose (30 μgL−1 above ambient) treatment. Inaddition, the biomass and estimated P standingstock of aquatic consumers increased in the 30and 5 μg L−1 treatments. Alterationsin P concentration and standing stock occurredonly at the upstream ends of the flumes nearestto the point source of added nutrient. Thetotal amount of P stored by the ecosystemwithin the flume increased with P dosing,although the ecosystem in the flumes retainedonly a small proportion of the P added over thefirst six months. These results indicate thatoligotrophic Everglades wetlands respondrapidly to short-term, low-level P enrichment,and the initial response is most noticeable inthe periphyton and flocculent detrital layer.

Short-term temporal and spatial variations in physical, optical and biogeochemical parameters in June of 2013 in Alfacs Bay (NW Mediterranean)

With the aim of analyzing the complex physical and biogeochemical interactions at high temporal and spatial resolution in the complex estuarine waters of Alfacs Bay, a beam attenuation-based approach was used as optical proxy of different biogeochemical variables. Thus, the dataset contains the attenuation proxies as well as laboratory results from the analysis of water samples, which were used to validate our approach. In addition, the major physical forcing in the Bay was also measured.

Short-term impact of soybean management on ammonia oxidizers in a Brazilian savanna under restoration as revealed by coupling different techniques

Acknowledgments The authors are very grateful to Mr. Fabiano Bielefeld Nardotto, owner of the Tabapuã dos Pireneus farm, for allowing our free movement around the farm and collection of soil samples, as well as providing information about soybean cultivation. The authors also thank Dr. Plínio de Camargo, who performed the isotopic analysis in the CENA laboratory at the University of São Paulo (USP). This work was supported by grants from the National Council of Technological and Scientific Development (CNPq), Brazilian Federal Agency for Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES), and Foundation for Research Support of Distrito Federal (FAP-DF).

The effects of graded levels of calorie restriction : V. Impact of short term calorie and protein restriction on physical activity in the C57BL/6 mouse

Peer reviewed

The cardioprotective effect of a short-term aerobic exercise program and the mitochondrial permeability transition pore of the Rat

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Artificial neural network application in short-term prediction in an oscillating water column

Oscillating Water Column (OWC) is one type of promising wave energy devices due to its obvious advantage over many other wave energy converters: no moving component in sea water. Two types of OWCs (bottom-fixed and floating) have been widely investigated, and the bottom-fixed OWCs have been very successful in several practical applications. Recently, the proposal of massive wave energy production and the availability of wave energy have pushed OWC applications from near-shore to deeper water regions where floating OWCs are a better choice. For an OWC under sea waves, the air flow driving air turbine to generate electricity is a random process. In such a working condition, single design/operation point is nonexistent. To improve energy extraction, and to optimise the performance of the device, a system capable of controlling the air turbine rotation speed is desirable. To achieve that, this paper presents a short-term prediction of the random, process by an artificial neural network (ANN), which can provide near-future information for the control system. In this research, ANN is explored and tuned for a better prediction of the airflow (as well as the device motions for a wide application). It is found that, by carefully constructing ANN platform and optimizing the relevant parameters, ANN is capable of predicting the random process a few steps ahead of the real, time with a good accuracy. More importantly, the tuned ANN works for a large range of different types of random, process.