Role of assessment components and recent adverse outcomes in risk estimation and prediction: use of the Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) in an adult secure inpatient mental health service

The Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability is a structured judgement tool used to inform risk estimation for multiple adverse outcomes. In research, risk estimates outperform the tool's strength and vulnerability scales for violence prediction. Little is known about what its’component parts contribute to the assignment of risk estimates and how those estimates fare in prediction of non-violent adverse outcomes compared with the structured components. START assessment and outcomes data from a secure mental health service (N=84) was collected. Binomial and multinomial regression analyses determined the contribution of selected elements of the START structured domain and recent adverse risk events to risk estimates and outcomes prediction for violence, self-harm/suicidality, victimisation, and self-neglect. START vulnerabilities and lifetime history of violence, predicted the violence risk estimate; self-harm and victimisation estimates were predicted only by corresponding recent adverse events. Recent adverse events uniquely predicted all corresponding outcomes, with the exception of self-neglect which was predicted by the strength scale. Only for victimisation did the risk estimate outperform prediction based on the START components and recent adverse events. In the absence of recent corresponding risk behaviour, restrictions imposed on the basis of START-informed risk estimates could be unwarranted and may be unethical.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

Reframing Scottish Football: Strategy and the short-term nature of the football industry.

Despite football being deeply entrenched in Scottish culture it is under-researched from a business perspective. This research develops a conceptual framework that views professional football clubs from a number of different perspectives. It draws on strategic management literature since this views the firm as the intersection between internal competence, customer perception and competition within an industry. A review of previous sports business research highlighted five main themes that were used to create a structure for the analysis: on-field performance, attendance, finance, the playing squad and the manager. These themes were used as frames to view the firms within the industry from a number of different perspectives. Each frame allows a different aspect of the firm to be considered singly in turn and then collectively to develop a deeper understanding of the existing frames in use within the industry. The research is based on a pragmatic philosophy that allows mixed methods to be combined to provide both an objective and subjective view of the industry. The subjective view was drawn from five interviews with senior figures within Scottish professional football. These participants were from a number of different roles and organisations within the industry to provide a balance of experiences. The views were triangulated with a descriptive analysis of secondary data from a number of industry sources to establish patterns within and between these frames. A peer group of six clubs was selected as they competed in the Scottish Premier League in each of the seasons within an eleven-year period (2000-2011). The peer group clubs selected were: Aberdeen, Dundee United, Heart of Midlothian (Hearts), Hibernian, Kilmarnock and Motherwell. By focussing on a small group of clubs with a similar on-field record a broad study across the five frames could be carried out in detail without the findings being influenced by the impact of relegation to a lower division or sustained participation in European football. Within each of the original five frames a number of sub-components were identified and linked to the framework; this expanded the content to reflect the findings of this project. There appeared to be little link between on-field performance and attendance although progress to the later stages of cup competitions allowed clubs to connect with fans who do not regularly attend. The relationship between a club’s income and wage bill should be expanded to include interest repayments since this expenditure can be used to highlight future financial problems caused by increased debt levels. Although all of the interview participants spoke with pride of the players that had progressed from the club’s youth academy to success at the highest level the peer group clubs only produced one player each season that played more than ten matches for the club. Almost half of the players signed from the youth academy left the club without playing for the 1st Team. The importance of the relationship between the manager and club chairman was highlighted, although the speed with which managers were appointed suggests that little consideration was given to this before offering a contract. Once appointed there appeared to be little clarity over the job description and areas of responsibility. Several of the interviewees brought experience from other businesses to football but admitted that short-term decision making and entrenched behaviour made change difficult. The conclusion of the research is that by taking a firm-wide view of the club, longer-term decisions can be taken within football. Player development and supporter relationships were both identified as long-term processes that are impacted by the current short-termism. With greater role clarity for managers and a mixture of short and long-term objectives those involved in the industry are more likely to have opportunities to learn from experience and performance, across the different frames, will improve as a result.

Use of short-term breath measures to estimate daily methane production by cattle

Methods to measure enteric methane (CH4) emissions from individual ruminants in their production environment are required to validate emission inventories and verify mitigation claims. Estimates of daily methane production (DMP) based on consolidated short-term emission measurements are developing, but method verification is required. Two cattle experiments were undertaken to test the hypothesis that DMP estimated by averaging multiple short-term breath measures of methane emission rate did not differ from DMP measured in respiration chambers (RC). Short-term emission rates were obtained from a GreenFeed Emissions Monitoring (GEM) unit, which measured emission rate while cattle consumed a dispensed supplement. In experiment 1 (Expt. 1), four non-lactating cattle (LW=518 kg) were adapted for 18 days then measured for six consecutive periods. Each period consisted of 2 days of ad libitum intake and GEM emission measurement followed by 1 day in the RC. A prototype GEM unit releasing water as an attractant (GEM water) was also evaluated in Expt. 1. Experiment 2 (Expt. 2) was a larger study based on similar design with 10 cattle (LW=365 kg), adapted for 21 days and GEM measurement was extended to 3 days in each of the six periods. In Expt. 1, there was no difference in DMP estimated by the GEM unit relative to the RC (209.7 v. 215.1 g CH4/day) and no difference between these methods in methane yield (MY, 22.7 v. 23.7 g CH4/kg of dry matter intake, DMI). In Expt. 2, the correlation between GEM and RC measures of DMP and MY were assessed using 95% confidence intervals, with no difference in DMP or MY between methods and high correlations between GEM and RC measures for DMP (r=0.85; 215 v. 198 g CH4/day SEM=3.0) and for MY (r=0.60; 23.8 v. 22.1 g CH4/kg DMI SEM=0.42). When data from both experiments was combined neither DMP nor MY differed between GEM- and RC-based measures (P>0.05). GEM water-based estimates of DMP and MY were lower than RC and GEM (P<0.05). Cattle accessed the GEM water unit with similar frequency to the GEM unit (2.8 v. 3.5 times/day, respectively) but eructation frequency was reduced from 1.31 times/min (GEM) to once every 2.6 min (GEM water). These studies confirm the hypothesis that DMP estimated by averaging multiple short-term breath measures of methane emission rate using GEM does not differ from measures of DMP obtained from RCs. Further, combining many short-term measures of methane production rate during supplement consumption provides an estimate of DMP, which can be usefully applied in estimating MY.

An idiotypic immune network as a short-term learning architecture for mobile robots

A combined Short-Term Learning (STL) and Long-Term Learning (LTL) approach to solving mobile robot navigation problems is presented and tested in both real and simulated environments. The LTL consists of rapid simulations that use a Genetic Algorithm to derive diverse sets of behaviours. These sets are then transferred to an idiotypic Artificial Immune System (AIS), which forms the STL phase, and the system is said to be seeded. The combined LTL-STL approach is compared with using STL only, and with using a handdesigned controller. In addition, the STL phase is tested when the idiotypic mechanism is turned off. The results provide substantial evidence that the best option is the seeded idiotypic system, i.e. the architecture that merges LTL with an idiotypic AIS for the STL. They also show that structurally different environments can be used for the two phases without compromising transferability.

Short Term Outcome of Neonates Born With Abnormal Umbilical Cord Arterial Blood Gases

Background: Umbilical arterial blood gas (UABG) analysis is more objective than other methods for predicting neonatal outcome. Acidemic neonates may be at risk for unfavorable outcome after birth, but all neonates with abnormal arterial blood gas (ABG) analysis do not always have poor outcome. Objectives: This study was carried out to determine the short term outcome of the neonates born with an abnormal ABG. Patients and Methods: In a cohort prospective study 120 high risk mother-neonate pairs were enrolled and UABG was taken immediately after birth. All neonates with an umbilical cord pH less than 7.2 were considered as case group and more than 7.2 as controls. Outcomes like need to resuscitation, admission to newborn services and/or NICU), seizure occurrence, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE), delayed initiation of oral feeding and length of hospital stay were recorded and compared between the two groups. P value less than 0.05 was considered as being significant. Results: Comparison of short term outcomes between normal and abnormal ABG groups were as the fallowing: need for advanced resuscitation 4 vs. 0 (P = 0.001), NICU admission 16 vs. 4 (P = 0.001), convulsion 2 vs. 0 (P = 0.496), HIE 17 vs. 4 (P = 0.002), delay to start oral feeding 16 vs. 4 (P = 0.001), mean hospital stay 4 vs. 3 days (P = 0.001). None of the neonates died in study groups. Conclusions: An umbilical cord PH less than 7.2 immediately after birth can be used as a prognostic factor for unfavorable short term outcome in newborns.

Persistent Truncus Arteriosus With Intact Ventricular Septum: Clinical, Hemodynamic and Short-term Surgical Outcome

Introduction: Truncus arteriosus with intact ventricular septum is a rare and unique variant of persistent truncus arteriosus (PTA) which usually presents with central cyanosis and congestive heart failure in neonate and early infancy. Associated cardiac and non-cardiac anomalies may affect morbidity and mortality of these patients. Case Presentation: We describe clinical presentation, echocardiography and angiographic features of a 7-month old boy with PTA and intact ventricular septum who underwent surgical repair of the anomaly at our institution. Operative findings, surgical procedure and short-term outcome are reported. Conclusions: While our patient had systemic pulmonary arterial pressure at the time of complete surgical repair, it was improved after surgery.

Transcatheter Closure of Atrial Septal Defects in a Center With Limited Resources: Outcomes and Short Term Follow-Up

Background: Transcatheter closure of atrial septal defects (ASD) has been accepted world-wide as an alternative to surgical closure with excellent results. This interventional, non-surgical technique plays an important role in the treatment of ASD mostly in the developing world where resources are limited. Objectives: To report the outcomes and short term follow-up of transcatheter closure of ASD over a 12-year period at our institution with limited resources. Patients and Methods: This retrospective study included all patients with the diagnosis of secundum ASD and significant shunting (Qp/Qs > 1.5:1) as well as dilated right atrium and right ventricle who had transcatheter closure at Integrated Cardiovascular Center (PJT), Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital between October 2002 and October 2014. One hundred fifty-two patients enrolled in this study were candidates for device closure. Right and left heart cardiac catheterization was performed before the procedure. All patients underwent physical examination, ECG, chest X-ray and transthoracal echocardiography (TTE) prior to device implantation. Results: A total of 152 patients with significant ASD underwent device implantation. Subjects’ age ranged from 0.63 to 69.6 years, with median 9.36 years and mean 16.30 years. They consisted of 33 (21.7%) males and 119 (78.3%) females, with mean body weight of 29.9 kg (range 8 to 75; SD 18.2). The device was successfully implanted in 150 patients where the majority of cases received the Amplatzer septal occluder (147/150; 98%) and the others received the Heart Lifetech ASD occluder (3/150, 2%), whereas two other cases were not suitable for device closure and we decided for surgical closure. The mean ASD size was 19.75 (range 14 - 25) mm. During the procedure, 5 (4.9%) patients had bradycardia and 3 (2.9%) patients had supraventricular tachycardia (SVT), all of which resolved. Conclusions: In our center with limited facilities and manpower, transcatheter closure of atrial septal defect was effective and safe as an alternative treatment to surgery. The outcome and short-term follow-up revealed excellent results, but long-term follow-up is needed.

Short-term cognitive-behavioural group treatment for hoarding disorder: a naturalistic treatment outcome study

The study aim was to test whether a 12-week publically rebated group programme, based upon Steketee and Frost's Cognitive Behavioural Therapy-based hoarding treatment, would be efficacious in a community-based setting. Over a 3-year period, 77 participants with clinically significant hoarding were recruited into 12 group programmes. All completed treatment; however, as this was a community-based naturalistic study, only 41 completed the post-treatment assessment. Treatment included psychoeducation about hoarding, skills training for organization and decision making, direct in-session exposure to sorting and discarding, and cognitive and behavioural techniques to support out-of-session sorting and discarding, and nonacquiring. Self-report measures used to assess treatment effect were the Savings Inventory-Revised (SI-R), Savings Cognition Inventory, and the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scales. Pre-post analyses indicated that after 12 weeks of treatment, hoarding symptoms as measured on the SI-R had reduced significantly, with large effect sizes reported in total and across all subscales. Moderate effect sizes were also reported for hoarding-related beliefs (emotional attachment and responsibility) and depressive symptoms. Of the 41 participants who completed post-treatment questionnaires, 14 (34%) were conservatively calculated to have clinically significant change, which is considerable given the brevity of the programme judged against the typical length of the disorder. The main limitation of the study was the moderate assessment completion rate, given its naturalistic setting. This study demonstrated that a 12-week group treatment for hoarding disorders was effective in reducing hoarding and depressive symptoms in an Australian clinical cohort and provides evidence for use of this treatment approach in a community setting. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY PRACTITIONER MESSAGE: A 12-week group programme delivered in a community setting was effective for helping with hoarding symptoms with a large effect size. Hoarding beliefs (emotional attachment and responsibility) and depression were reduced, with moderate effect sizes. A third of all participants who completed post-treatment questionnaires experienced clinically significant change. Suggests that hoarding CBT treatment can be effectively translated into real-world settings and into a brief 12-session format, albeit the study had a moderate assessment completion rate.

Effects of a free school breakfast programme on children's attendance, academic achievement and short-term hunger: results from a stepped-wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Free school breakfast programmes (SBPs) exist in a number of high-income countries, but their effects on educational outcomes have rarely been evaluated in randomised controlled trials.

METHODS: A 1-year stepped-wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial was undertaken in 14 New Zealand schools in low socioeconomic resource areas. Participants were 424 children, mean age 9±2 years, 53% female. The intervention was a free daily SBP. The primary outcome was children's school attendance. Secondary outcomes were academic achievement, self-reported grades, sense of belonging at school, behaviour, short-term hunger, breakfast habits and food security.

RESULTS: There was no statistically significant effect of the breakfast programme on children's school attendance. The odds of children achieving an attendance rate <95% was 0.76 (95% CI 0.56 to 1.02) during the intervention phase and 0.93 (95% CI 0.67 to 1.31) during the control phase, giving an OR of 0.81 (95% CI 0.59 to 1.11), p=0.19. There was a significant decrease in children's self-reported short-term hunger during the intervention phase compared with the control phase, demonstrated by an increase of 8.6 units on the Freddy satiety scale (95% CI 3.4 to 13.7, p=0.001). There were no effects of the intervention on any other outcome.

CONCLUSIONS: A free SBP did not have a significant effect on children's school attendance or academic achievement but had significant positive effects on children's short-term satiety ratings. More frequent programme attendance may be required to influence school attendance and academic achievement.

A distributed spatial-temporal weighted model on MapReduce for short-term traffic flow forecasting

Accurate and timely traffic flow prediction is crucial to proactive traffic management and control in data-driven intelligent transportation systems (D2ITS), which has attracted great research interest in the last few years. In this paper, we propose a Spatial-Temporal Weighted K-Nearest Neighbor model, named STW-KNN, in a general MapReduce framework of distributed modeling on a Hadoop platform, to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of short-term traffic flow forecasting. More specifically, STW-KNN considers the spatial-temporal correlation and weight of traffic flow with trend adjustment features, to optimize the search mechanisms containing state vector, proximity measure, prediction function, and K selection. urthermore, STW-KNN is implemented on a widely adopted Hadoop distributed computing platform with the MapReduce parallel processing paradigm, for parallel prediction of traffic flow in real time. inally, with extensive experiments on real-world big taxi trajectory data, STW-KNN is compared with the state-of-the-art prediction models including conventional K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Naïve Bayes (NB), Random orest (R), and C4.. The results demonstrate that the proposed model is superior to existing models on accuracy by decreasing the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value more than 11.9% only in time domain and even achieves 89.71% accuracy improvement with the MAPEs of between 4% and 6.% in both space and time domains, and also significantly improves the efficiency and scalability of short-term traffic flow forecasting over existing approaches.

A Fitter Future For All - Final Report on 2012-2015 Short-term Outcomes

The ten year obesity prevention framework, A Fitter Future for All 2012-2022, was launched in 9th March 2012. It takes a cross-sectoral, cross-departmental approach to preventing and addressing obesity through encouraging and supporting people to eat healthily and participate in physical activity. Initial short-term outcomes where developed for the period 2012-2015 – to fit alongside the then Programme for Government. This document provides a final update and a summary report of all the activities undertaken during this period.