Birth date predicts alternative life-history pathways in a fish with sequential reproductive tactics

1.In species with plastic expression of alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs), individuals of the same sex, usually males, can adopt different reproductive tactics depending on factors such as body size. 2.The ‘birth date hypothesis’ proposes that condition-dependent expression of ARTs may ultimately depend on birth date, because individuals born at different times of the year may achieve different sizes and express different reproductive tactics accordingly. However, this has rarely been tested. 3.Here, we tested this hypothesis in a fish with ARTs, the peacock blenny (Salaria pavo). A long-term (6 years) mark–recapture study demonstrated that ARTs in the peacock blenny were sequential and that males may follow at least two alternative life-history pathways: a nest-holder pathway, in which males express the nest-holder tactic from their first breeding season onwards, and a parasitic pathway, where males reproduce on their first breeding season as sneaker males and subsequently as nest-holders. 4.We have found evidence of a birth date effect on the expression of ARTs in the peacock blenny. Males following the nest-holder pathway are born earlier and are larger at the first breeding season than males following the parasitic pathway, but they have similar growth curves. 5.The mechanisms underlying a birth date effect are far from clear and might be diverse. We have not found support for a mechanism of body size threshold triggering sexual maturation and subsequent ARTs. A mechanism of tactic determination that is strictly based on timing of first maturation is also unlikely. 6.A proxy of lifetime reproductive success shows crossing (body size associated) fitness curves for the two main life-history pathways.

Highly efficient subcloning of rodent malaria parasites by injection of single merosomes or detached cells

This protocol describes a method for obtaining rodent Plasmodium parasite clones with high efficiency, which takes advantage of the normal course of Plasmodium in vitro exoerythrocytic development. At the completion of development, detached cells/merosomes form, which contain hundreds to thousands of merozoites. As all parasites within a single detached cell/merosome derive from the same sporozoite, we predicted them to be genetically identical. To prove this, hepatoma cells were infected simultaneously with a mixture of Plasmodium berghei sporozoites expressing either GFP or mCherry. Subsequently, individual detached cells/merosomes from this mixed population were selected and injected into mice, resulting in clonal blood stage parasite infections. Importantly, as a large majority of mice become successfully infected using this protocol, significantly less mice are necessary than for the widely used technique of limiting dilution cloning. To produce a clonal P. berghei blood stage infection from a non-clonal infection using this procedure requires between 4 and 5 weeks.

Sequential Pre-Marital Investment Games: Implications for Unemployment

Agents on the same side of a two-sided matching market (such as the marriage or labor market) compete with each other by making self-enhancing investments to improve their worth in the eyes of potential partners. Because these expenditures generally occur prior to matching, this activity has come to be known in recent literature (Peters, 2007) as pre-marital investment. This paper builds on that literature by considering the case of sequential pre-marital investment, analyzing a matching game in which one side of the market invests first, followed by the other. Interpreting the first group of agents as workers and the other group as firms, the paper provides a new perspective on the incentive structure that is inherent in labor markets. It also demonstrates that a positive rate of unemployment can exist even in the absence of matching frictions. Policy implications follow, as the prevailing set of equilibria can be altered by restricting entry into the workforce, providing unemployment insurance, or subsidizing pre-marital investment.

Bayesian doubly optimal group sequential designs for randomized clinical trials

When conducting a randomized comparative clinical trial, ethical, scientific or economic considerations often motivate the use of interim decision rules after successive groups of patients have been treated. These decisions may pertain to the comparative efficacy or safety of the treatments under study, cost considerations, the desire to accelerate the drug evaluation process, or the likelihood of therapeutic benefit for future patients. At the time of each interim decision, an important question is whether patient enrollment should continue or be terminated; either due to a high probability that one treatment is superior to the other, or a low probability that the experimental treatment will ultimately prove to be superior. The use of frequentist group sequential decision rules has become routine in the conduct of phase III clinical trials. In this dissertation, we will present a new Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to the problem of designing a randomized group sequential clinical trial, focusing on two-arm trials with time-to-failure outcomes. Forward simulation is used to obtain optimal decision boundaries for each of a set of possible models. At each interim analysis, we use Bayesian model selection to adaptively choose the model having the largest posterior probability of being correct, and we then make the interim decision based on the boundaries that are optimal under the chosen model. We provide a simulation study to compare this method, which we call Bayesian Doubly Optimal Group Sequential (BDOGS), to corresponding frequentist designs using either O'Brien-Fleming (OF) or Pocock boundaries, as obtained from EaSt 2000. Our simulation results show that, over a wide variety of different cases, BDOGS either performs at least as well as both OF and Pocock, or on average provides a much smaller trial. ^

Predictors of HIV testing among injection drug users

The current analysis examined the association of several demographic and behavioral variables with prior HIV testing within a population of injection drug users (IDUs) living in Harris County, Texas in 2005 (n=563). After completing the initial univariate analyses of all potential predictors, a multivariable model was created. This model was designed to guide future intervention efforts. Data used in this analysis were collected by the University of Texas School of Public Health in association with the Houston Department of Health and Human Services for the first IDU cycle of the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System. About 76% of the IDUs reported previously being tested for HIV. Demographic variables that displayed a significant association with prior testing during the univariate analyses include age, race/ethnicity, birth outside the United States, education level, recent arrest, and current health insurance coverage. Several drug-related and sexual behaviors also demonstrated significant associations with prior testing, including age of first injection drug use, heroin use, methamphetamine use, source of needles or syringes, consistent use of new needles, recent visits to a shooting gallery or similar location, previous alcohol or drug treatment, condom use during their most recent sexual encounter, and having sexual partners who also used injection drugs. Additionally, the univariate analyses revealed that recent use of health or HIV prevention services was associated with previously testing for HIV. The final multivariable model included age, race/ethnicity, recent arrest, previous alcohol or drug treatment, and heroin use. ^

Outcomes of tuberculosis positive non-injection drug users in Harris County from October 1995 through September 2004

Background. The population-based Houston Tuberculosis Initiative (HTI) study has enrolled and gathered demographic, social, behavioral, and disease related data on more than 80% of all reported Mycobacterium Tuberculosis (MTB) cases and 90% of all culture positive patients in Houston/Harris County over a 9 year period (from October 1995-September 2004). During this time period 33% (n=1210) of HTI MTB cases have reported a history of drug use. Of those MTB cases reporting a history of drug use, a majority of them (73.6%), are non-injection drug users (NIDUs). ^ Other than HIV, drug use is the single most important risk factor for progression from latent to infectious tuberculosis (TB). In addition, drug use is associated with increased transmission of active TB, as seen by the increased number of clonally related strains or clusters (see definition on page 30) found in this population. The deregulatory effects of drug use on immune function are well documented. Associations between drug use and increased morbidity have been reported since the late 1970's. However, limited research focused on the immunological consequence of non-injection drug use and its relation to tuberculosis infection among TB patients is available. ^ Methods. TB transmission patterns, symptoms, and prevalence of co-morbidities were a focus of this project. Smoking is known to suppress Nitric Oxide (NO) production and interfere with immune function. In order to limit any possible confounding due to smoking two separate analyses were done. Non-injection drug user smokers (NIDU-S) were compared to non-drug user smokers (NDU-S) and non-injection drug user non-smokers (NIDU-NS) were compared to non-drug user non-smokers (NDU-NS) individually. Specifically proportions, chi-square p-values, and (where appropriate) odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated to assess characteristics and potential associations of co-morbidities and symptoms of TB among NIDUs HTI TB cases. ^ Results. Significant differences in demographic characteristics and risk factors were found. In addition drug users were found to have a decreased risk for cancer, diabetes mellitus, and chronic pulmonary disease. They were at increased risk of having HIV/AIDS diagnosis, liver disease, and trauma related morbidities. Drug users were more likely to have pulmonary TB disease, and a significantly increased amount of clonally related strains of TB or "clusters" were seen in both smokers and non-smoker drug users when compared to their non-drug user counterparts. Drug users are more likely to belong to print groups (clonally related TB strains with matching spoligotypes) including print one and print three and the Beijing family group, s1. Drug users were found to be no more likely to experience drug resistance to TB therapy and were likely to be cured of disease upon completion of therapy. ^ Conclusion. Drug users demographic and behavioral risk factors put them at an increased risk contracting and spreading TB disease throughout the community. Their increased levels of clustering are evidence of recent transmission and the significance of certain print groups among this population indicate the transmission is from within the social family. For these reasons a focus on this "at risk population" is critical to the success of future public health interventions. Successful completion of directly observed therapy (DOT), the tracking of TB outbreaks and incidence through molecular characterization, and increased diagnostic strategies have led to the stabilization of TB incidence in Houston, Harris County over the past 9 years and proven that the Houston Tuberculosis Initiative has played a critical role in the control and prevention of TB transmission. ^

Apply response adaptive randomization to group sequential with early stopping

Group sequential methods and response adaptive randomization (RAR) procedures have been applied in clinical trials due to economical and ethical considerations. Group sequential methods are able to reduce the average sample size by inducing early stopping, but patients are equally allocated with half of chance to inferior arm. RAR procedures incline to allocate more patients to better arm; however it requires more sample size to obtain a certain power. This study intended to combine these two procedures. We applied the Bayesian decision theory approach to define our group sequential stopping rules and evaluated the operating characteristics under RAR setting. The results showed that Bayesian decision theory method was able to preserve the type I error rate as well as achieve a favorable power; further by comparing with the error spending function method, we concluded that Bayesian decision theory approach was more effective on reducing average sample size.^

Gender differences in life circumstances, monthly income, risky sexual and drug behaviors among injection drug users in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

This study investigated the gender difference between male and female injection drug users’ (IDUs) life circumstances, income and risky sexual and drug behaviors. The study sample comprised of 318 male and 249 female injection drug users in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. There were gender differences between male and female IDUs in terms of life circumstances and sexual behaviors. There were no differences in the drug behaviors among the two sexes. Women were more likely to be 21-25 years of age, have had more sexual partners in the last 30 days, traded sex for money, and have been sexually abused as a child. On the other hand, the males were more likely to be 26-30 years of age and have never used a condom during sex in the last 30 days. Regardless of the differences in sexual risk behaviors by gender, both male and female injection drug users in Dar es Salaam are at risk of HIV/AIDS, blood borne and other sexually transmitted diseases associated with drug use.^

Factors associated with needle sharing among Black male injection drug users in Harris County, Texas

Background. Injection drug users (IDUs) are at increased risk for HIV transmission due to unique risk behaviors, such as sharing needles. In Houston, IDUs account for 18% of all HIV/AIDS cases among Black males. ^ Objectives. This analysis compared demographic, behavioral, and psychosocial characteristics of needle sharing and non-sharing IDUs in a population of Black males in Harris County, Texas. ^ Methods. Data used for this analysis were from the second IDU cycle of the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System. This dataset included a sample of 288 Black male IDUs. Univariate and multivariate statistical analysis were performed to determine statistically significant associations of needle sharing in this population and to create a functional model to inform local HIV prevention programs. ^ Results. Half of the participants in this analysis shared needles in the past 12 months. Compared to non-sharers, sharers were more likely to be homeless (OR=3.70, p<0.01) or arrested in the past year (OR=2.31, p<0.01), inject cocaine (OR=2.07, p<0.01), report male-to-male sex in the past year (OR=6.97, p<0.01), and to exchange sex for money or drugs. Sharers were less likely than non-sharers to graduate high school (OR=0.36, p<0.01), earn $5,000 or more a year (OR=1.15, p=0.05), get needles from a medical source (OR=0.59, p=0.03), and ever test for HIV (OR=0.17, p<0.01). Sharers were more likely to report depressive symptoms (OR=3.49, p<0.01), lower scores on the family support scale (mean difference 0.41, p=0.01) and decision-making confidence scale (mean difference 0.38, p<0.01), and greater risk-taking (mean difference -0.49, p<0.01) than non-sharers. In a multivariable logistic regression, sharers were less likely to have graduated high school (OR=0.33, p<0.01) and have been tested for HIV (OR=0.12, p<0.01) and were more likely to have been arrested in the past year (OR=2.3, p<0.01), get needles from a street source (OR=3.87, p<0.01), report male-to-male sex (OR=7.01, p<0.01), and have depressive symptoms (OR=2.36, p=0.02) and increased risk-taking (OR=1.78, p=0.01). ^ Conclusions. IDUs that shared needles are different from those that did not, reporting lower socioeconomic status, increased sexual and risk behaviors, increased depressive symptoms and increased risk-taking. These findings suggest that intervention programs that also address these demographic, behavioral, and psychosocial factors may be more successful in decreasing needle sharing among this population.^

HIV prevalence and contextual risk-factors among injection drug users in Harris County, Texas

Injection drug use is the third most frequent risk factor for new HIV infections in the United States. A dual mode of exposure: unsafe drug using practices and risky sexual behaviors underlies injection drug users' (IDUs) risk for HIV infection. This research study aims to characterize patterns of drug use and sexual behaviors and to examine the social contexts associated with risk behaviors among a sample of injection drug users. ^ This cross-sectional study includes 523 eligible injection drug users from Houston, Texas, recruited into the 2009 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance project. Three separate set of analyses were carried out. First, using latent class analysis (LCA) and maximum likelihood we identified classes of behavior describing levels of HIV risk, from nine drug and sexual behaviors. Second, eight separate multivariable regression models were built to examine the odds of reporting a given risk behavior. We constructed the most parsimonious multivariable model using a manual backward stepwise process. Third, we examined whether HIV serostatus knowledge (self-reported positive, negative, or unknown serostatus) is associated with drug use and sexual HIV risk behaviors. ^ Participants were mostly male, older, and non-Hispanic Black. Forty-two percent of our sample had behaviors putting them at high risk, 25% at moderate risk, and 33% at low risk for HIV infection. Individuals in the High-risk group had the highest probability of risky behaviors, categorized as almost always sharing needles (0.93), seldom using condoms (0.10), reporting recent exchange sex partners (0.90), and practicing anal sex (0.34). We observed that unsafe injecting practices were associated with high risk sexual behaviors. IDUs who shared needles had higher odds of having anal sex (OR=2.89, 95%CI: 1.69-4.92) and unprotected sex (OR=2.66, 95%CI: 1.38-5.10) at last sex. Additionally, homelessness was associated with needle sharing (OR=2.24, 95% CI: 1.34-3.76) and cocaine use was associated with multiple sex partners (OR=1.82, 95% CI: 1.07-3.11). Furthermore, twenty-one percent of the sample was unaware of their HIV serostatus. The three groups were not different from each other in terms of drug-use behaviors: always using a new sterile needle, or in sharing needles or drug preparation equipment. However, IDUs unaware of their HIV serostatus were 33% more likely to report having more than three sexual partners in the past 12 months; 45% more likely to report to have unprotected sex and 85% more likely to use drug and or alcohol during or before at last sex compared to HIV-positive IDUs. ^ This analysis underscores the merit of LCA approach to empirically categorize injection drug users into distinct classes and identify their risk pattern using multiple indicators and our results show considerable overlap of high risk sexual and drug use behaviors among the high-risk class members. The observed clustering pattern of drug and sexual risk behavior among this population confirms that injection drug users do not represent a homogeneous population in terms of HIV risk. These findings will help develop tailored prevention programs.^

Composition of soil samples from injection location

CO2 leakage from subsurface storage sites is one of the main concerns connected with the CCS technology. As CO2 leakages into near surface formations appear to be very unlikely within pilot CCS projects, the aim of this work is to emulate a leakage by injecting CO2 into a near surface aquifer. The two main questions pursued by the injection test are (1) to investigate the impact of CO2 on the hydrogeochemistry of the groundwater as a base for groundwater risk assessment and (2) to develop and apply monitoring methods and monitoring concepts for detecting CO2 leakages in shallow aquifers. The presented injection test is planned within the second half of 2010, as a joint project of the University of Kiel (Germany), the Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research (Leipzig, Germany) and the Engineering Company GICON (Dresden, Germany). The test site has been investigated in detail using geophysical methods as well as direct-push soundings, groundwater well installation and soil and groundwater analyses. The present paper presents briefly the geological and hydrogeological conditions at the test site as well as the planned injection test design and monitoring concept.

Pelagic, turbiditic, and contouritic sequential deposits on the Cape Verde Plateau

On the Cape Verde Plateau, Neogene deposits are composed of major pelagic and hemipelagic sediments. These sediments show climatic sequences composed of two lithologic terms that differ in their siliciclastic and carbonate contents. Several turbiditic and contouritic sequences are interbedded in these deposits. Turbidite sequences are fine grained and thin bedded with a very low frequency (about 12 sequences during the Neogene). They are composed of quartz-rich siliciclastic or volcaniclastic sediments. Quartz-rich turbidites originated from the Senegalese margin. Their slightly higher frequency during the early Pliocene indicates that the stronger turbidity currents, and probably the most abundant continental inputs, occur at that period. Volcaniclastic turbidites are only present in the early Miocene (about 17 Ma) and the early Pleistocene (1 Ma). They have flown from adjacent Cape Verde Islands and reflect two episodes of high volcanic activity in this area. Contourite sequences, composed of biogenic sandy silts, represent less than 5% of the sediment pile and seem to have been mainly deposited during the late Pleistocene. These different sequences show clay mineral variations throughout Neogene time. Kaolinite is predominant in the Miocene and lower Pliocene deposits; this mineral decreases thereafter, with an increased trend of illite in the uppermost Pliocene and Pleistocene sediments, suggesting a change in sediment sources on the Saharan continent at about 2.6 Ma.

Table 1. Mean geochemical values for Baseline (pre-injection) and Monitor-1 (post-injection) samples, and the percent change between the two weighted means

The Weyburn Oil Field, Saskatchewan is the site of a large (5000 tonnes/day of CO2) CO2-EOR injection project By EnCana Corporation. Pre- and post-injection samples (Baseline and Monitor-1, respectively) of produced fluids from approximately 45 vertical wells were taken and chemically analyzed to determine changes in the fluid chemistry and isotope composition between August 2000 and March 2001. After 6 months of CO2 injection, geochemical parameters including pH, [HCO3], [Ca], [Mg], and ?13CO2(g) point to areas in which injected CO2 dissolution and reservoir carbonate mineral dissolution have occurred. Pre-injection fluid compositions suggest that the reservoir brine in the injection area may be capable of storing as much as 100 million tonnes of dissolved CO2. Modeling of water-rock reactions show that clay minerals and feldspar, although volumetrically insignificant, may be capable of acting as pH buffers, allowing injected CO2 to be stored as bicarbonate in the formation water or as newly precipitated carbonate minerals, given favorable reaction kinetics.