At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR-). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR- subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan's nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR-: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan's nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide.

Non-selective beta-blockers may reduce risk of hepatocellular carcinoma: a meta-analysis of randomized trials

BACKGROUND & AIMS Non-selective beta-blockers (NSBB) are used in patients with cirrhosis and oesophageal varices. Experimental data suggest that NSBB inhibit angiogenesis and reduce bacterial translocation, which may prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We therefore assessed the effect of NSBB on HCC by performing a systematic review with meta-analyses of randomized trials. METHODS Electronic and manual searches were combined. Authors were contacted for unpublished data. Included trials assessed NSBB for patients with cirrhosis; the control group could receive any other intervention than NSBB. Fixed and random effects meta-analyses were performed with I(2) as a measure of heterogeneity. Subgroup, sensitivity, regression and sequential analyses were performed to evaluate heterogeneity, bias and the robustness of the results after adjusting for multiple testing. RESULTS Twenty-three randomized trials on 2618 patients with cirrhosis were included, of which 12 reported HCC incidence and 23 reported HCC mortality. The mean duration of follow-up was 26 months (range 8-82). In total, 47 of 694 patients randomized to NSBB developed HCC vs 65 of 697 controls (risk difference -0.026; 95% CI-0.052 to -0.001; number needed to treat 38 patients). There was no heterogeneity (I(2) = 7%) or evidence of small study effects (Eggers P = 0.402). The result was not confirmed in sequential analysis, which suggested that 3719 patients were needed to achieve the required information size. NSBB did not reduce HCC-related mortality (RD -0.011; 95% CI -0.040 to 0.017). CONCLUSIONS Non-selective beta-blockers may prevent HCC in patients with cirrhosis.

Risk Factors for Intracranial Haemorrhage in Accidents Associated with the Shower or Bathtub

BACKGROUND There has been little research on bathroom accidents. It is unknown whether the shower or bathtub are connected with special dangers in different age groups or whether there are specific risk factors for adverse outcomes. METHODS This cross-sectional analysis included all direct admissions to the Emergency Department at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland from 1 January 2000 to 28 February 2014 after accidents associated with the bathtub or shower. Time, age, location, mechanism and diagnosis were assessed and special risk factors were examined. Patient groups with and without intracranial bleeding were compared with the Mann-Whitney U test.The association of risk factors with intracranial bleeding was investigated using univariate analysis with Fisher's exact test or logistic regression. The effects of different variables on cerebral bleeding were analysed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS Two hundred and eighty (280) patients with accidents associated with the bathtub or shower were included in our study. Two hundred and thirty-five (235) patients suffered direct trauma by hitting an object (83.9%) and traumatic brain injury (TBI) was detected in 28 patients (10%). Eight (8) of the 27 patients with mild traumatic brain injuries (GCS 13-15), (29.6%) exhibited intracranial haemorrhage. All patients with intracranial haemorrhage were older than 48 years and needed in-hospital treatment. Patients with intracranial haemorrhage were significantly older and had higher haemoglobin levels than the control group with TBI but without intracranial bleeding (p<0.05 for both).In univariate analysis, we found that intracranial haemorrhage in patients with TBI was associated with direct trauma in general and with age (both p<0.05), but not with the mechanism of the fall, its location (shower or bathtub) or the gender of the patient. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified only age as a risk factor for cerebral bleeding (p<0.05; OR 1.09 (CI 1.01;1.171)). CONCLUSION In patients with ED admissions associated with the bathtub or shower direct trauma and age are risk factors for intracranial haemorrhage. Additional effort in prevention should be considered, especially in the elderly.

Large-scale land acquisition and its effects on the water balance in investor and host countries

This study examines the validity of the assumption that international large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is motivated by the desire to secure control over water resources, which is commonly referred to as ‘water grabbing’. This assumption was repeatedly expressed in recent years, ascribing the said motivation to the Gulf States in particular. However, it must be considered of hypothetical nature, as the few global studies conducted so far focused primarily on the effects of LSLA on host countries or on trade in virtual water. In this study, we analyse the effects of 475 intended or concluded land deals recorded in the Land Matrix database on the water balance in both host and investor countries. We also examine how these effects relate to water stress and how they contribute to global trade in virtual water. The analysis shows that implementation of the LSLAs in our sample would result in global water savings based on virtual water trade. At the level of individual LSLA host countries, however, water use intensity would increase, particularly in 15 sub-Saharan states. From an investor country perspective, the analysis reveals that countries often suspected of using LSLA to relieve pressure on their domestic water resources—such as China, India, and all Gulf States except Saudi Arabia—invest in agricultural activities abroad that are less water-intensive compared to their average domestic crop production. Conversely, large investor countries such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Japan are disproportionately externalizing crop water consumption through their international land investments. Statistical analyses also show that host countries with abundant water resources are not per se favoured targets of LSLA. Indeed, further analysis reveals that land investments originating in water-stressed countries have only a weak tendency to target areas with a smaller water risk.

Towards science-based sediment quality standards-Effects of field-collected sediments in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss).

Sediments can act as long-term sinks for environmental pollutants. Within the past decades, dioxin-like compounds (DLCs) such as polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have attracted significant attention in the scientific community. To investigate the time- and concentration-dependent uptake of DLCs and PAHs in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and their associated toxicological effects, we conducted exposure experiments using suspensions of three field-collected sediments from the rivers Rhine and Elbe, which were chosen to represent different contamination levels. Five serial dilutions of contaminated sediments were tested; these originated from the Prossen and Zollelbe sampling sites (both in the river Elbe, Germany) and from Ehrenbreitstein (Rhine, Germany), with lower levels of contamination. Fish were exposed to suspensions of these dilutions under semi-static conditions for 90 days. Analysis of muscle tissue by high resolution gas chromatography and mass spectrometry and of bile liquid by high-performance liquid chromatography showed that particle-bound PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PAHs were readily bioavailable from re-suspended sediments. Uptake of these contaminants and the associated toxicological effects in fish were largely proportional to their sediment concentrations. The changes in the investigated biomarkers closely reflected the different sediment contamination levels: cytochrome P450 1A mRNA expression and 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase activity in fish livers responded immediately and with high sensitivity, while increased frequencies of micronuclei and other nuclear aberrations, as well as histopathological and gross pathological lesions, were strong indicators of the potential long-term effects of re-suspension events. Our study clearly demonstrates that sediment re-suspension can lead to accumulation of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in fish, resulting in potentially adverse toxicological effects. For a sound risk assessment within the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive and related legislation, we propose a strong emphasis on sediment-bound contaminants in the context of integrated river basin management plans.

Serum amyloid A: high-density lipoproteins interaction and cardiovascular risk.

AIMS High-density lipoproteins (HDLs) are considered as anti-atherogenic. Recent experimental findings suggest that their biological properties can be modified in certain clinical conditions by accumulation of serum amyloid A (SAA). The effect of SAA on the association between HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) and cardiovascular outcome remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS We examined the association of SAA and HDL-C with mortality in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study, which included 3310 patients undergoing coronary angiography. To validate our findings, we analysed 1255 participants of the German Diabetes and Dialysis study (4D) and 4027 participants of the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) S4 study. In LURIC, SAA concentrations predicted all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. In patients with low SAA, higher HDL-C was associated with lower all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. In contrast, in patients with high SAA, higher HDL-C was associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, indicating that SAA indeed modifies the beneficial properties of HDL. We complemented these clinical observations by in vitro experiments, in which SAA impaired vascular functions of HDL. We further derived a formula for the simple calculation of the amount of biologically 'effective' HDL-C based on measured HDL-C and SAA from the LURIC study. In 4D and KORA S4 studies, we found that measured HDL-C was not associated with clinical outcomes, whereas calculated 'effective' HDL-C significantly predicted better outcome. CONCLUSION The acute-phase protein SAA modifies the biological effects of HDL-C in several clinical conditions. The concomitant measurement of SAA is a simple, useful, and clinically applicable surrogate for the vascular functionality of HDL.

Internal and external effects on cognition: Evidence from memory training in very preterm-born children and cognition in patients with carotid artery stenosis before and after treatment

The present synopsis aims to integrate one study about memory training in very preterm-born children and two studies about cognition in patients with carotid artery stenosis before and after treatments. Preterm-born children are at increased risk of cognitive deficits and behavioural problems compared with peers born at term. This thesis determined whether memory training would improve cognitive functions in school-age very preterm-born children. Memory strategy training produced significant improvements in trained and non-trained cognitive functions; a core working memory training revealed significant effects on short-term memory and working memory tasks. Six months after training, children in both training groups showed better working memory performance than children in the waiting control group. This is evidence that memory training – an external influence on cognition – induces plastic changes in very preterm-born children. Patients with carotid artery stenosis are known to be at increased risk of cognitive impairment. We showed that patients with symptomatic or asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis were at higher risk for cognitive deficits than expected in a normative sample. This thesis seeks to link cognitive plasticity to internal factors like carotid stenosis. An external factor, which influences blood flow to the brain is the nature of the carotid artery stenosis treatment. Research on the effects of carotid artery stenosis treatment on cognition has produced inconsistent results. We found significant improvement in frontal lobe functions, visual memory and motor speed one year after treatment independent of the treatment type (best medical treatment, carotid artery stenting, carotid artery endarterectomy); providing evidence for ‘treatment-induced’ cognitive plasticity. Baseline performance was negatively associated with improvement in various cognitive functions after training in very preterm-born children and after treatment in patients with carotid artery stenosis. The present synopsis aims to integrate these findings into the current and relevant literature, and discuss consequences as well as methodological considerations resulting from the studies constituting the thesis at hand.

Effects of Breastfeeding on Respiratory Symptoms in Infancy.

OBJECTIVE To assess the impact of potential risk factors on the development of respiratory symptoms and their specific modification by breastfeeding in infants in the first year of life. STUDY DESIGN We prospectively studied 436 healthy term infants from the Bern-Basel Infant Lung Development cohort. The breastfeeding status, and incidence and severity of respiratory symptoms (score) were assessed weekly by telephone interview during the first year of life. Risk factors (eg, pre- and postnatal smoking exposure, mode of delivery, gestational age, maternal atopy, and number of older siblings) were obtained using standardized questionnaires. Weekly measurements of particulate matter <10 μg were provided by local monitoring stations. The associations were investigated using generalized additive mixed model with quasi Poisson distribution. RESULTS Breastfeeding reduced the incidence and severity of the respiratory symptom score mainly in the first 27 weeks of life (risk ratio 0.70; 95% CI 0.55-0.88). We found a protective effect of breastfeeding in girls but not in boys. During the first 27 weeks of life, breastfeeding attenuated the effects of maternal smoking during pregnancy, gestational age, and cesarean delivery on respiratory symptoms. There was no evidence for an interaction between breastfeeding and maternal atopy, number of older siblings, child care attendance, or particulate matter <10 μg. CONCLUSIONS This study shows the risk-specific effect of breastfeeding on respiratory symptoms in early life using the comprehensive time-series approach.

Effects of Study Area Size on Geographic Characterizations of Health Events: Prostate Cancer Incidence in Southern New England, USA, 1994-1998.

ABSTRACT : BACKGROUND : We consider how representations of geographic variation in prostate cancer incidence across Southern New England, USA may be affected by selection of study area and/or properties of the statistical analysis. METHOD : A spatial scan statistic was used to monitor geographic variation among 35,167 incident prostate cancer cases diagnosed in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island from 1994 to 1998, in relation to the 1990 populations of men 20+ years of age living in that region. Results from the combined-states analysis were compared to those from single-states. Impact of scanning procedures set to examine up to 50% or no more than10% of at-risk populations also was evaluated. RESULTS : With scanning set to 50%, 5 locations in the combined-states analysis were identified with markedly distinct incidence rates. Fewer than expected cases were estimated for nearly all Connecticut, Rhode Island and West Central Massachusetts, whereas census tracts on and around Cape Cod, and areas of Southwestern Connecticut and adjacent to greater Boston were estimated to have yielded more than expected incidence. Results of single-state analyses exhibited several discrepancies from the combined-states analysis. More conservative scanning found many more locations with varying incidence, but discrepancies between the combined- and single-state analysis were fewer. CONCLUSION : It is important to acknowledge the conditional nature of spatial analyses and carefully consider whether a true cluster of events is identified or artifact stemming from selection of study area size and/or scanning properties.

Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically? Asian Evidence

The effects of exchange rate risk have interested researchers, since the collapse of fixed exchange rates. Little consensus exists, however, regarding its effect on exports. Previous studies implicitly assume symmetry. This paper tests the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate risk with a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH(1,1)-M model. The asymmetry means that exchange rate risk (volatility) affects exports differently during appreciations and depreciations of the exchange rate. The data include bilateral exports from eight Asian countries to the US. The empirical results show that real exchange rate risk significantly affects exports for all countries, negative or positive, in periods of depreciation or appreciation. For five of the eight countries, the effects of exchange risk are asymmetric. Thus, policy makers can consider the stability of the exchange rate in addition to its depreciation as a method of stimulating export growth.

Effects of a Carbohydrate-restricted Diet on Emerging Plasma Markers for Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND : Increasing evidence supports carbohydrate restricted diets (CRD) for weight loss and improvement in traditional markers for cardiovascular disease (CVD); less is known regarding emerging CVD risk factors. We previously reported that a weight loss intervention based on a CRD (% carbohydrate:fat:protein = 13:60:27) led to a mean weight loss of 7.5 kg and a 20% reduction of abdominal fat in 29 overweight men. This group showed reduction in plasma LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides and elevations in HDL-cholesterol as well as reductions in large and medium VLDL particles and increases in LDL particle size. In this study we report on the effect of this intervention with and without fiber supplementation on plasma homocysteine, lipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)], C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha). METHODS : Twenty nine overweight men [body mass index (BMI) 25-35 kg/m2] aged 20-69 years consumed an ad libitum CRD (% carbohydrate:fat:protein = 13:60:27) including a standard multivitamin every other day for 12 wk. Subjects were matched by age and BMI and randomly assigned to consume 3 g/d of either a soluble fiber supplement (n = 14) or placebo (n = 15). RESULTS : There were no group or interaction (fiber x time) main effects, but significant time effects were observed for several variables. Energy intake was spontaneously reduced (-30.5%). This was accompanied by an increase in protein intake (96.2 +/- 29.8 g/d to 107.3 +/- 29.7 g/d) and methionine intake (2.25 +/- 0.7 g/d, to 2.71 +/- 0.78 g/d; P < 0.001). Trans fatty acid intake was significantly reduced (-38.6%) while dietary folate was unchanged, as was plasma homocysteine. Bodyweight (-7.5 +/- 2.5 kg) was reduced as was plasma Lp(a) (-11.3%). Changes in plasma Lp(a) correlated with reductions in LDL-cholesterol (r = .436, P < 0.05) and fat loss (r = .385, P < 0,05). At wk 12, both CRP (-8.1%) and TNF-alpha (-9.3%) were reduced (P < 0.05) independently of weight loss. IL-6 concentrations were unchanged. CONCLUSION : A diet based on restricting carbohydrates leads to spontaneous caloric reduction and subsequent improvement in emerging markers of CVD in overweight/obese men who are otherwise healthy.

The Associations Between Social, Behavioral, and Health Risk Factors on a High School Student’s Decision to Pursue Post High School Plans

Background: Due to the relationship between SES and health, pursuing post high-school plans can lead to better future health outcomes for the student. The current paper assesses how behavioral and health risk factors, and family and social support, effect a student’s decision to pursue post high school plans. Methods: Data from the Youth Behavioral Component of the 2007 Connecticut School Health Survey were analyzed. Composite measures of exposure to/participation in violent behavior, mental and physical health, family/social support and substance abuse were created. The effects of these domains on the decision to pursue post high-school plans were assessed using logistic regression. Data were stratified by socioeconomic status. Results: Low SES students were more likely than high SES students to be doubtful for post high-school plans. Cocaine abuse emerged as the risk factor that put low SES students at the highest odds of not pursuing post high-school plans, followed by involvement in violent/aggressive behavior, and receiving less family/social support than their peers. Similar findings regarding violence and family/social support were found in the high SES group. Findings regarding substance abuse in the high SES group were not statistically significant. Discussion: Prevention programs regarding violence and substance abuse may have the added benefit of increasing the likelihood that high school students will make post high school plans. Preventing cocaine use among low SES students may be of particular importance. Violence prevention measures should be tailored to the target group. Adequate family/social support emerged as an encouraging factor for post high school plans.

Determinants and Effects of Maturity Mismatches in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Bank Level Data

Despite the extensive work on currency mismatches, research on the determinants and effects of maturity mismatches is scarce. In this paper I show that emerging market maturity mismatches are negatively affected by capital inflows and price volatilities. Furthermore, I find that banks with low maturity mismatches are more profitable during crisis periods but less profitable otherwise. The later result implies that banks face a tradeoff between higher returns and risk, hence channeling short term capital into long term loans is caused by cronyism and implicit guarantees rather than the depth of the financial market. The positive relationship between maturity mismatches and price volatility, on the other hand, shows that the banks of countries with high exchange rate and interest rate volatilities can not, or choose not to hedge themselves. These results follow from a panel regression on a data set I constructed by merging bank level data with aggregate data. This is advantageous over traditional studies which focus only on aggregate data.

Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Market Countries

This paper tests the presence of balance sheets effects and analyzes the implications for exchange rate policies in emerging markets. The results reveal that the emerging market bond index (EMBI) is negatively related to the banks' foreign currency leverage, and that these banks' foreign currency exposures are relatively unhedged. Panel SVAR methods using EMBI instead of advanced country lending rates find, contrary to the literature, that the amplitude of output responses to foreign interest rate shocks are smaller under relatively fixed regimes. The findings are robust to the local projections method of obtaining impulse responses, using country specific and GARCH-SVAR models.