A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

Dispersion and energy relations in periodic chains and grids

In this study wave propagation, dispersion relations, and energy relations for linear elastic periodic systems are analyzed. In particular, the dispersion relations for monoatomic chain of infinite dimension are obtained analytically by writing the Block-type wave equation for a unit cell in order to capture the dynamic behavior for chains under prescribed vibration. By comparing the discretized model (mass-spring chain) with the solid bar system, the nonlinearity of the dispersion relation for chain indicates that the periodic lattice is dispersive in contrast to the continuous rod, which is non dispersive. Further investigations have been performed considering one-dimensional diatomic linear elastic mass-spring chain. The dispersion relations, energy velocity, and group velocity have been derived. At certain range of frequencies harmonic plane waves do not propagate in contrast with monoatomic chain. Also, since the diatomic chain considered is a linear elastic chain, both of the energy velocity and the group velocity are identical. As long as the linear elastic condition is considered the results show zero flux condition without residual energy. In addition, this paper shows that the diatomic chain dispersion relations are independent on the unit cell scheme. Finally, an extension for the study covers the dispersion and energy relations for 2D- grid system. The 2x2 grid system show a periodicity of the dispersion surface in the wavenumber domain. In addition, the symmetry of the surface can be exploited to identify an Irreducible Brillouin Zone (IBZ). Compact representations of the dispersion properties of multidimensional periodic systems are obtained by plotting frequency as the wave vector’s components vary along the boundary of the IBZ, which leads to a widely accepted and effective visualization of bandgaps and overall dispersion properties.

The United Nations Security Council Sanctions and International Human Rights

Peer reviewed

Italian Journalist Oriana Fallaci at the United Nations

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Italian Journalist Oriana Fallaci at the United Nations

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Jean O'Leary speaks on Politics and Women at conference

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Spontaneity and international marketing performance

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to ascertain how today’s international marketers can perform better on the global scene by harnessing spontaneity. Design/methodology/approach: The authors draw on contingency theory to develop a model of the spontaneity – international marketing performance relationship, and identify three potential moderators, namely, strategic planning, centralization, and market dynamism. The authors test the model via structural equation modeling with survey data from 197 UK exporters. Findings: The results indicate that spontaneity is beneficial to exporters in terms of enhancing profit performance. In addition, greater centralization and strategic planning strengthen the positive effects of spontaneity. However, market dynamism mitigates the positive effect of spontaneity on export performance (when customer needs are volatile, spontaneous decisions do not function as well in terms of ensuring success). Practical implications: Learning to be spontaneous when making export decisions appears to result in favorable outcomes for the export function. To harness spontaneity, export managers should look to develop company heuristics (increase centralization and strategic planning). Finally, if operating in dynamic export market environments, the role of spontaneity is weaker, so more conventional decision-making approaches should be adopted. Originality/value: The international marketing environment typically requires decisions to be flexible and fast. In this context, spontaneity could enable accelerated and responsive decision-making, allowing international marketers to realize superior performance. Yet, there is a lack of research on decision-making spontaneity and its potential for international marketing performance enhancement.

Politics and Poetics of the Novel: Using Domesticity to Create the Nation

This thesis examines how the depiction of the family during war reinforces or challenges societal values in three nineteenth-century novels. The primary focus lies in three novels by Sir Walter Scott, Leo Tolstoy, and Harriet Beecher Stowe that represent the perspectives of England, Russia, and the United States, respectively, and their evolving nationalism as the roots of the Napoleonic Wars and the American Civil War became visible. By investigating the interaction between economic classes, it can be concluded that the preservation of the family is inherently dependent on social status in some nations, while in others, it is integral to daily life regardless of class. The backdrop of impending war only serves to heighten national differences, overturn the organization of the family hierarchy, and redefine the idea of the modern household.

Election Quality and International Observation 1975-2004: Two New Datasets

This paper introduces two new datasets on national level elections from 1975 to 2004. The data are grouped into two separate datasets, the Quality of Elections Data and the Data on International Election Monitoring. Together these data sets provide original information on elections, election observation and election quality, and will enable researchers to study a variety of research questions. The datasets will be publicly available and are maintained at a project website.

A philosophy of performance, politics and composition

This thesis discusses socio-political issues worldwide through philosophical approaches to performance, politics and composition. My research also discuss sound decisions which I regard to be simultaneously an outlet for personal expression, as well as a practical tool to inspire a socio-political change in society. Although the latter is paramount to the methodology of the project, the sound cannot be regarded in isolation as a “political composition”. It can only become truly functional in a political sense through interaction with other art forms, within the context of a specific place and time. My portfolio for this project is of two socio-political projects which are my chief concern. The first project concerns the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I named this project PATH. PATH aims to foster and expand peaceful thought between Jewish and Palestinian civilians in Israel-Palestine. Through performance art, PATH spreads a message of acceptance, unity and brotherhood between our peoples. Above all, PATH demands and end to intolerance, hatred and violence among all the inhabitants of the State of Israel. The second project concerns women’s rights globally. I have realised that although we have come a long way in our struggle for rights for women, great challenges remain. There is a need to unite women and men against a form of oppression that discriminates against 50% of the world’s population. I called this project, For Utopia.

An Exploration of Sociometric Status and Peer Relations in Youth Sport

More than 10 years ago, it was suggested that sociometry and systematic observation were two potentially useful but under-utilized methods for the study of peers in youth sport (Smith, 2003). Despite this call, the methods used to study peers in sport remain largely focused on athletes' perceptions through questionnaires and interviews. Thus, the purpose of this descriptive study was to investigate the utility of sociometry in relation to sport competence and observed athlete behavior in youth sport. Three adolescent female volleyball teams were videotaped during three practice sessions, and sport competence and sociometric status were assessed using questionnaires. An observational coding system was developed and used to code athlete behaviors and data were compared across sociometric status groups. Results revealed significant differences between sociometric status groups on peer ratings of sport competence, but not on athlete behavior. However, interesting findings emerged with respect to how status groups interacted with teammates and coaches. Thus, sport competence seems to be an important factor in gaining acceptance among youth peer groups. Further, sociometry and behavioral observation appear to be useful techniques that should continue to be employed in the study of peer relations in youth sport.

Language standardization in sociolinguistics and international business: Theory and practice across the table

This chapter addresses the issue of language standardization from two perspectives, bringing together a theoretical perspective offered by the discipline of sociolinguistics with a practical example from international business. We introduce the broad concept of standardization and embed the study of language standardization in the wider discussion of standards as a means of control across society. We analyse the language policy and practice of the Danish multinational, Grundfos, and use it as a “sociolinguistic laboratory” to “test” the theory of language standardization initially elaborated by Einar Haugen to explain the history of modern Norwegian. The table is then turned and a model from International Business by Piekkari, Welch and Welch is used to illuminate recent Norwegian language planning. It is found that the Grundfos case works well with the Haugen model, and the International Business model provides a valuable practical lesson for national language planners, both showing that a “comparative standardology” is a valuable undertaking. More voices “at the table” will allow both theory and practice to be further refined and for the role of standards across society to be better understood.

Effects of retirement on cognitive function: A gender and international perspecive

Background: As the global population is ageing, studying cognitive impairments including dementia, one of the leading causes of disability in old age worldwide, is of fundamental importance to public health. As a major transition in older age, a focus on the complex impacts of the duration, timing, and voluntariness of retirement on health is important for policy changes in the future. Longer retirement periods, as well as leaving the workforce early, have been associated with poorer health, including reduced cognitive functioning. These associations are hypothesized to differ based on gender, as well as on pre-retirement educational and occupational experiences, and on post-retirement social factors and health conditions. Methods: A cross-sectional study is conducted to determine the relationship between duration and timing of retirement and cognitive function, using data from the five sites of International Mobility in Aging Study (IMIAS). Cognitive function is assessed using the Leganes Cognitive Test (LCT) scores in 2012. Data are analyzed using multiple linear regressions. Analyses are also done by site/region separately (Canada, Latin America, and Albania). Robustness checks are done with an analysis of cognitive change from 2012 to 2014, the effect of voluntariness of retirement on cognitive function. An instrumental variable (IV) approach is also applied to the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses as a robustness check to address the potential endogeneity of the retirement variable. Results: Descriptive statistics highlight differences between men and women, as well as between sites. In linear regression analysis, there was no relationship between timing or duration of retirement and cognitive function in 2012, when adjusting for site/region. There was no association between retirement characteristics and cognitive function in site/region/stratified analyses. In IV analysis, longer retirement and on time or late retirement was associated with lower cognitive function among men. In IV analysis, there is no relationship between retirement characteristics and cognitive function among women. Conclusions: While results of the thesis suggest a negative effect of retirement on cognitive function, especially among men, the relationship remains uncertain. A lack of power results in the inability to draw conclusions for site/region-specific analysis and site-adjusted analysis in both linear and IV regressions.

Policy Solutions and International Perspectives on the Funding of Public Service Media Content for Children: A Report for Stakeholders

This project on Policy Solutions and International Perspectives on the Funding of Public Service Media Content for Children began on 8 February 2016 and concludes on 31 May 2016. Its outcomes contribute to the policy-making process around BBC Charter Review, which has raised concerns about the financial sustainability of UK-produced children’s screen content. The aim of this project is to evaluate different funding possibilities for public service children’s content in a more challenging and competitive multiplatform media environment, drawing on experiences outside the UK. The project addresses the following questions: • What forms of alternative funding exist to support public service content for children in a transforming multiplatform media environment? • What can we learn from the types of funding and support for children’s screen content that are available elsewhere in the world – in terms of regulatory foundations, administration, accountability, levels of funding, amounts and types of content supported? • How effective are these funding systems and funding sources for supporting domestically produced content (range and numbers of projects supported; audience reach)? This stakeholder report constitutes the main outcome of the project and provides an overview and analysis of alternatives for supporting and funding home-grown children’s screen content across both traditional broadcasting outlets and emerging digital platforms. The report has been made publicly available, so that it can inform policy work and responses to the UK Government White Paper, A BBC for the Future, published by the Department of Culture, Media and Sport in May 2016.