Application of a Bayesian Network complex system model to a successful community electricity demand reduction program

Utilities worldwide are focused on supplying peak electricity demand reliably and cost effectively, requiring a thorough understanding of all the factors influencing residential electricity use at peak times. An electricity demand reduction project based on comprehensive residential consumer engagement was established within an Australian community in 2008, and by 2011, peak demand had decreased to below pre-intervention levels. This paper applied field data discovered through qualitative in-depth interviews of 22 residential households at the community to a Bayesian Network complex system model to examine whether the system model could explain successful peak demand reduction in the case study location. The knowledge and understanding acquired through insights into the major influential factors and the potential impact of changes to these factors on peak demand would underpin demand reduction intervention strategies for a wider target group.

The culture of young women's drinking: Implications for developing effective policing strategies. Report to National Drug Strategy Law Enforcement Committee

Alcohol-related mortality and morbidity represents a substantial financial burden on communities across the world. Adolescence and young adulthood is a peak period for heavy episodic alcohol consumption, with over a third of all people aged 14-19 years having been at risk of acute alcoholrelated harm at least once in the previous 12 months (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare [AIHW], 2011). Excessive alcohol consumption has long been seen as a male problem; however, a gradual shift towards a social acceptance of female drunkenness has narrowed the gap in drinking quantity and style between men and women (Grucza, Bucholz, Rice, & Bierut, 2008). The presented data point to the vulnerability of women to the consequences of acute alcohol intoxication and indicate that alcohol-related offending by women is on the rise. Taken together, these findings reveal that alcohol-related harms and aggression for young women are becoming more prevalent and problematic. This report addressed these issues from a policing perspective...

Exploration of diarrhoea seasonality and its drivers in China

This study investigated the diarrhoea seasonality and its potential drivers as well as potential opportunities for future diarrhoea control and prevention in China. Data on weekly infectious diarrhoea cases in 31 provinces of China from 2005 to 2012, and data on demographic and geographic characteristics, as well as climatic factors, were complied. A cosinor function combined with a Poisson regression was used to calculate the three seasonal parameters of diarrhoea in different provinces. Regression tree analysis was used to identify the predictors of diarrhoea seasonality. Diarrhoea cases in China showed a bimodal distribution. Diarrhoea in children <5 years was more likely to peak in fall-winter seasons, while diarrhoea in persons > = 5 years peaked in summer. Latitude was significantly associated with spatial pattern of diarrhoea seasonality, with peak and trough times occurring earlier at high latitudes (northern areas), and later at low latitudes (southern areas). The annual amplitudes of diarrhoea in persons > = 5 years increased with latitude (r = 0.62, P<0.001). Latitude 27.8° N and 38.65° N were the latitudinal thresholds for diarrhoea seasonality in China. Regional-specific diarrhoea control and prevention strategies may be optimal for China. More attention should be paid to diarrhoea in children <5 years during fall-winter seasons.

Evolved gas analysis of coal-derived pyrite/marcasite

The products evolved during the thermal decomposition of the coal-derived pyrite/marcasite were studied using simultaneous thermogravimetry coupled with Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy and mass spectrometry (TG-FTIR–MS) technique. The main gases and volatile products released during the thermal decomposition of the coal-derived pyrite/marcasite are water (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). The results showed that the evolved products obtained were mainly divided into two processes: (1) the main evolved product H2O is mainly released at below 300 °C; (2) under the temperature of 450–650 °C, the main evolved products are SO2 and small amount of CO2. It is worth mentioning that SO3 was not observed as a product as no peak was observed in the m/z = 80 curve. The chemical substance SO2 is present as the main gaseous product in the thermal decomposition for the sample. The coal-derived pyrite/marcasite is different from mineral pyrite in thermal decomposition temperature. The mass spectrometric analysis results are in good agreement with the infrared spectroscopic analysis of the evolved gases. These results give the evidence on the thermal decomposition products and make all explanations have the sufficient evidence. Therefore, TG–MS–IR is a powerful tool for the investigation of gas evolution from the thermal decomposition of materials.

A vibrational spectroscopic study of the borate mineral ezcurrite Na4B10O17·7H2O – Implications for the molecular structure

We have studied the boron containing mineral ezcurrite Na4B10O17·7H2O using electron microscopy and vibrational spectroscopy. Both tetrahedral and trigonal boron units are observed. The nominal resolution of the Raman spectrometer is of the order of 2 cm−1 and as such is sufficient enough to identify separate bands for the stretching bands of the two boron isotopes. The Raman band at 1037 cm−1 is assigned to BO stretching vibration. Raman bands at 1129, 1163, 1193 cm−1 are attributed to BO stretching vibration of the tetrahedral units. The Raman band at 947 cm−1 is attributed to the antisymmetric stretching modes of tetrahedral boron. The sharp Raman peak at 1037 cm−1 is from the 11-B component such a mode, then it should have a smaller 10-B satellite near (1.03) × (1037) = 1048 cm−1, and indeed a small peak at 1048 is observed. The broad Raman bands at 3186, 3329, 3431, 3509, 3547 and 3576 cm−1 are assigned to water stretching vibrations. Broad infrared bands at 3170, 3322, 3419, 3450, 3493, 3542, 3577 and 3597 cm−1 are also assigned to water stretching vibrations. Infrared bands at 1330, 1352, 1389, 1407, 1421 and 1457 cm−1 are assigned to the antisymmetric stretching vibrations of trigonal boron. The observation of so many bands suggests that there is considerable variation in the structure of ezcurrite. Infrared bands at 1634, 1646 and 1681 cm−1 are assigned to water bending modes. The number of water bending modes is in harmony with the number of water stretching vibrations.

A vibrational spectroscopic study of the silicate mineral plumbophyllite Pb2Si4O10⋅H2O

Raman spectroscopy complimented with infrared spectroscopy has been used to study the molecular structure of the mineral of plumbophyllite. The Raman spectrum is dominated by a very intense sharp peak at 1027 cm−1, assigned to the SiO stretching vibrations of (SiO3)n units. A very intense Raman band at 643 cm−1 is assigned to the bending mode of (SiO3)n units. Raman bands observed at 3215, 3443, 3470, 3494 and 3567 cm−1 are assigned to water stretching vibrations. Multiple water stretching and bending modes are observed showing that there is much variation in hydrogen bonding between water and the silicate surfaces. Because of the close similarity in the structure of plumbophyllite and apophyllite, a comparison of the spectra with that of apophyllites is made. By using vibrational spectroscopy an assessment of the molecular structure of plumbophyllite has been made.

Structural complexity in structural health monitoring: Preliminary experimental modal testing and analysis

Many researchers in the field of civil structural health monitoring have developed and tested their methods on simple to moderately complex laboratory structures such as beams, plates, frames, and trusses. Field work has also been conducted by many researchers and practitioners on more complex operating bridges. Most laboratory structures do not adequately replicate the complexity of truss bridges. This paper presents some preliminary results of experimental modal testing and analysis of the bridge model presented in the companion paper, using the peak picking method, and compares these results with those of a simple numerical model of the structure. Three dominant modes of vibration were experimentally identified under 15 Hz. The mode shapes and order of the modes matched those of the numerical model; however, the frequencies did not match.

Compressive and shear force generated in the lumbar spine of female rowers

Rowers have and accrue greater lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) associated with mechanical loading produced during rowing. The aim of this study was to estimate the mechanical loading generated at the lumbar spine (LS) that is apparently providing an osteogenic benefit. The cohort comprised 14 female rowers (average age: 19.7yrs; height: 170.9 cm, weight: 59.5 kg) and 14 female matched controls (average age: 20.9 m yrs; height: 167.5 cm; weight: 58.1 kg). BMD was assessed using the Hologic QDR 2000+ bone densitometer, indicating higher lumbar spine BMD in the rowers compared to the control subjects (1,069 +/- 0.1 vs. 1,027 +/- 0.1 g/cm2). No significant difference existed for BMD at any other site. All rowers performed a six-minute simulated race on a Concept II rowing ergometer. Mechanical loading generated at the lumbar spine during this task was assessed using a two-dimensional model of the spine, enabling the calculation of the compressive and shear forces at L4/L5. The shear force was the joint reaction force perpendicular to the spine at the L4/L5 joint. Peak compressive and shear force at the lumbar spine of the rowers were 2,694 +/- 609 (N) and 660 +/- 117 (N), respectively. Peak compressive force at the LS relative to body weight was 4.6 times body weight. The literature would suggest that forces of this magnitude, generated at the LS during maximal rowing, may be contributing to the site specific higher LS BMD found in the rowers.

Improved residential electricity demand management through analysis of the customer perspective

Peak electricity demand requires substantial investment to update transmission, distribution and generation infrastructure. A successful community peak demand reduction project was examined to identify residential consumer motivational and contextual factors involved in their decision to adopt/not adopt interventions. Energy professionals actively worked to achieve community 'peer' membership and by becoming a trusted information source, facilitated voluntary home energy assessment requests from over 80% of the residential community. By combining and tailoring interventions to the specific needs and motivations of individual householders and the community, interventions promoting energy conservation and efficiency can be effective in achieving sustained reduction in peak demand.

Higher-intensity exercise results in more sustainable improvements for VO2peak for breast and prostate cancer survivors

Purpose/Objectives: To examine peak volume of oxygen consumption (VO2peak) changes after a high- or low-intensity exercise intervention.
 Design: Experimental trial comparing two randomized intervention groups with control. 
 Setting: An exercise clinic at a university in Australia.
 Sample: 87 prostate cancer survivors (aged 47–80 years) and 72 breast cancer survivors (aged 34–76 years).
 Methods: Participants enrolled in an eight-week exercise intervention (n = 84) or control (n = 75) group. Intervention participants were randomized to low-intensity (n = 44, 60%–65% VO2peak, 50%–65% of one repetition maximum [1RM]) or high-intensity (n = 40, 75%–80% VO2peak, 65%–80% 1RM) exercise groups. Participants in the control group continued usual routines. All participants were assessed at weeks 1 and 10. The intervention groups were reassessed four months postintervention for sustainability. 
 Main Research Variables: VO2peak and self-reported physical activity.
 Findings: Intervention groups improved VO2peak similarly (p = 0.083), and both more than controls (p < 0.001). The high-intensity group maintained VO2peak at follow-up, whereas the low-intensity group regressed (p = 0.021). The low-intensity group minimally changed from baseline to follow-up by 0.5 ml/kg per minute, whereas the high-intensity group significantly improved by 2.2 ml/kg per minute (p = 0.01). Intervention groups always reported similar physical activity levels. 
 Conclusions: Higher-intensity exercise provided more sustainable cardiorespiratory benefits than lower-intensity exercise.
 Implications for Nursing: Survivors need guidance on exercise intensity, because a high volume of low-intensity exercise may not provide sustained health benefits.

Experimentally reduced hip-abductor muscle strength and frontal-plane biomechanics during walking

Researchers have postulated that reduced hip-abductor muscle strength may have a role in the progression of knee osteoarthritis by increasing the external knee-adduction moment. However, the relationship between hip-abductor strength and frontal-plane biomechanics remains unclear. To experimentally reduce hip-abduction strength and observe the subsequent changes in frontal-plane biomechanics. Descriptive laboratory study. Research laboratory. Eight healthy, recreationally active men (age = 27 ± 6 years, height = 1.75 ± 0.11 m, mass = 76.1 ± 10.0 kg). All participants underwent a superior gluteal nerve block injection to reduce the force output of the hip-abductor muscle group. Maximal isometric hip-abduction strength and gait biomechanical data were collected before and after the injections. Gait biomechanical variables collected during walking consisted of knee- and hip-adduction moments and impulses and the peak angles of contralateral pelvic drop, hip adduction, and ipsilateral trunk lean. Hip-abduction strength was reduced after the injection (P = .001) and remained lower than baseline values at the completion of the postinjection gait data collection (P = .02). No alterations in hip- or knee-adduction moments (hip: P = .11; knee: P = .52) or impulses (hip: P = .16; knee: P = .41) were found after the nerve block. Similarly, no changes in angular kinematics were observed for contralateral pelvic drop (P = .53), ipsilateral trunk lean (P = .78), or hip adduction (P = .48). A short-term reduction in hip-abductor strength was not associated with alterations in the frontal-plane gait biomechanics of young, healthy men. Further research is needed to determine whether a similar relationship is true in older adults with knee osteoarthritis.

How does commuting behavior change due to incentives? An empirical study of the Beijing Subway System

This study examines the impact of incentives on commuters' travel behavior based upon a questionnaire survey conducted with respect to the Beijing Subway System. Overall, we find that offering incentives to commuters, particularly fast food restaurant-related services and reduced ticket fares, has a positive influence on avoiding the morning rush hour. Furthermore, by using an interaction analysis, we discover that a flexible work schedule has an impact on commuters' behavior and the efficiency of the subway system. Finally, we recommend two possible policies to maximize the utility of the subway system and to reduce congestion at the peak of morning service: (1) a set of incentives that includes free wireless internet service with a coupon for breakfast and a discount on ticket fares before the morning peak, and; (2) the introduction of a flexible work schedule.

Noise in my head: Voices from the ugly Australian underground

The Ugly Australian Underground documents the music, songwriting, aesthetics and struggles of fifty of Australia’s most innovative and significant bands and artists currently at the creative peak of their careers. The book provides a rare insight into the critically heralded cult music scene in Australia. The author, Jimi Kritzler, is both a journalist and a musician, and is personally connected to the musicians he interviews through his involvement in this music subculture. The interviews are extremely personal and reveal much more than any interview granted to street press or blogs. They deal with not only the music and songwriting processes of each band, but in some circumstances their struggles with drugs, involvement in crime and the death of band members.

Tectonometamorphic evolution of the Åreskutan Nappe-Caledonian history revealed by SIMS U–Pb zircon geochronology

Secondary ionization mass spectrometry (SIMS) U–Pb dating of zircons from the Åreskutan Nappe in the central part of the Seve Nappe Complex of western central Jämtland provides new constraints on the timing of granulite–amphibolite-facies metamorphism and tectonic stacking of the nappe during the Caledonian orogeny. Peak-temperature metamorphism in garnet migmatites is constrained to c. 442 ± 4 Ma, very similar to the ages of leucogranites at 442 ± 3 and 441 ± 4 Ma. Within a migmatitic amphibolite, felsic segregations crystallized at 436 ± 2 Ma. Pegmatites, cross-cutting the dominant Caledonian foliation in the Nappe, yield 428 ± 4 and 430 ± 3 Ma ages. The detrital zircon cores in the migmatites and leucogranites provide evidence of Late Palaeoproterozoic, Mesoproterozoic to Early Neoproterozoic source terranes for the metasedimentary rocks. The formation of the ductile and hot Seve migmatites, with their inverted metamorphism and thinning towards the hinterland, can be explained by an extrusion model in which the allochthon stayed ductile for a period of at least 10 million years during cooling from peak-temperature metamorphism early in the Silurian. In our model, Baltica–Laurentia collision occurred in the Late Ordovician–earliest Silurian, with emplacement of the nappes far on to the Baltoscandian platform during the Silurian and early Devonian, Scandian Orogeny lasting until c. 390 Ma.

Reliability and criterion-related validity with a smartphone used in timed-up-and-go test

Background The capacity to diagnosys, quantify and evaluate movement beyond the general confines of a clinical environment under effectiveness conditions may alleviate rampant strain on limited, expensive and highly specialized medical resources. An iPhone 4® mounted a three dimensional accelerometer subsystem with highly robust software applications. The present study aimed to evaluate the reliability and concurrent criterion-related validity of the accelerations with an iPhone 4® in an Extended Timed Get Up and Go test. Extended Timed Get Up and Go is a clinical test with that the patient get up from the chair and walking ten meters, turn and coming back to the chair. Methods A repeated measure, cross-sectional, analytical study. Test-retest reliability of the kinematic measurements of the iPhone 4® compared with a standard validated laboratory device. We calculated the Coefficient of Multiple Correlation between the two sensors acceleration signal of each subject, in each sub-stage, in each of the three Extended Timed Get Up and Go test trials. To investigate statistical agreement between the two sensors we used the Bland-Altman method. Results With respect to the analysis of the correlation data in the present work, the Coefficient of Multiple Correlation of the five subjects in their triplicated trials were as follows: in sub-phase Sit to Stand the ranged between r = 0.991 to 0.842; in Gait Go, r = 0.967 to 0.852; in Turn, 0.979 to 0.798; in Gait Come, 0.964 to 0.887; and in Turn to Stand to Sit, 0.992 to 0.877. All the correlations between the sensors were significant (p < 0.001). The Bland-Altman plots obtained showed a solid tendency to stay at close to zero, especially on the y and x-axes, during the five phases of the Extended Timed Get Up and Go test. Conclusions The inertial sensor mounted in the iPhone 4® is sufficiently reliable and accurate to evaluate and identify the kinematic patterns in an Extended Timed Get and Go test. While analysis and interpretation of 3D kinematics data continue to be dauntingly complex, the iPhone 4® makes the task of acquiring the data relatively inexpensive and easy to use.