Wave forecasts associated with hurricane landfalls in the vicinity of Cape Lookout, North Carolina

Hurricanes can cause extensive damage to the coastline and coastal communities due to wind-generated waves and storm surge. While extensive modeling efforts have been conducted regarding storm surge, there is far less information about the effects of waves on these communities and ecosystems as storms make landfall. This report describes a preliminary use of NCCOS’ WEMo (Wave Exposure Model; Fonseca and Malhotra 2010) to compute the wind wave exposure within an area of approximately 25 miles radius from Beaufort, North Carolina for estuarine waters encompassing Bogue Sound, Back Sound and Core Sound during three hurricane landfall scenarios. The wind wave heights and energy of a site was a computation based on wind speed, direction, fetch and local bathymetry. We used our local area (Beaufort, North Carolina) as a test bed for this product because it is frequently impacted by hurricanes and we had confidence in the bathymetry data. Our test bed conditions were based on two recent Hurricanes that strongly affected this area. First, we used hurricane Isabel which made landfall near Beaufort in September 2003. Two hurricane simulations were run first by passing hurricane Isabel along its actual path (east of Beaufort) and second by passing the same storm to the west of Beaufort to show the potential effect of the reversed wind field. We then simulated impacts by a hurricane (Ophelia) with a different landfall track, which occurred in September of 2005. The simulations produced a geographic description of wave heights revealing the changing wind and wave exposure of the region as a consequence of landfall location and storm intensity. This highly conservative simulation (water levels were that of low tide) revealed that many inhabited and developed shorelines would receive wind waves for prolonged periods of time at heights far above that found during even the top few percent of non-hurricane events. The simulations also provided a sense for how rapidly conditions could transition from moderate to highly threatening; wave heights were shown to far exceed normal conditions often long before the main body of the storm arrived and importantly, at many locations that could impede and endanger late-fleeing vessels seeking safe harbor. When joined with other factors, such as storm surge and event duration, we anticipate that the WEMo forecasting tool will have significant use by local emergency agencies and the public to anticipate the relative exposure of their property arising as a function of storm location and may also be used by resource managers to examine the effects of storms in a quantitative fashion on local living marine resources.

1988 summer drought over the Great Plains: some causes and predictions

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The 1988 summer drought over much of the United States is described in terms of hemispheric mid-tropospheric flow patterns, temperature and precipitation anomalies, and sea surface temperature patterns. This drought was similar to earlier Great Plains droughts, although spatially more extensive than most. Three attempts to predict this drought from antecedent spring were moderately successful, though no one anticipated its severity and extent. ... A modified barotropic model iterating from a mean summer estimate of seasonal forcing from the May mid-tropospheric height pattern was reasonably successful in forecasting the drought. Sea surface temperature indications show that cold water (La Niña) along the equator subsequent to the 1987 El Niño, while contributory, cannot be considered a principal cause of the drought, since earlier cold water episodes did not produce drought, and other drought episodes occurred in the absence of cold equatorial waters.

Skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer

We have performed GCM experiments using the National Meteorological Center's Medium Range Forecasting (MRF) model to study the skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer and to test the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on such forecasts. The daily skill varies a great deal. The skillful daily forecasts last from 5 to 8 days for the Southern Hemisphere and from 6 to 8 days for the Northern Hemisphere. SSTAs have positive impact on the forecasts in the tropics and surface variables, but the impact of tropical SSTAs on the extra-tropical circulation is, in general, positive but small. Overall, the initial conditions play a more important role than SSTAs in determining the forecast skill.

Status of the shore area from Tiengiang to Camau: causes of accumulation and erosion

The paper presents some results of the research programs which had been performed during 1996-1999 (“Studying of river-sea interaction in the mouth of Tien river” and KHCN.06.08). Based on these results the morphological schemes of the shore areas from Tiengiang to Camau were compiled; causes and mechanics of accumulation and erosion were also determined. These results may be used as scientific basis for forecasting the development of the shoreline, it will contribute to the management, protection and reasonable exploitation the shore areas.

Preliminary studies on predicting the setting season of oysters for the benefit of shellfish farmers

Preliminary findings from a spatfall forecasting programme initiated in April 1981 at Himamaylan River, Negros Occidental are presented. Two main activities are involved: 1) monitoring of daily counts of oyster larvae in the plankton; and 2) monitoring of actual setting of oysters on standardized collectors put in the vicinity of oyster farm sites. Findings indicate that when the count of mature larvae exceeds 5 per 100 ml sample and persists for at least 3 days, spat may be expected to occur shortly afterwards.

Water budgeting studies on the hatchery and nursery rearing practices for the common carp, Cyprinus carpio (Linnaeus, 1758)

Aquaculture systems are an integral element of rural development and therefore should be environment friendly as well as socially and economically designed. From the economic standpoint, one of the major constraints for the development of sustainable aquaculture includes externalities generated by competition in access to a limited resource. This study was conducted as an investigation into the water requirement for the hatchery and nursery production phases of common carp, Cyprinus carpio (Linnaeus, 1758) at the Maharashtra State Fish Seed Farm at Khopoli in Raigad Dist. of Maharashtra during the winter months from November to February. The water budgeting study involves the quantification of water used in every stage of production in hatchery and nursery systems and aimed at becoming a foundation for the minimization of water during production without affecting the yield; thereby conserving water and upholding the theme of sustainable aquaculture. The total water used in a single operation cycle was estimated to be 11,25,040 L [sic]. Out of the total water consumed, 4.74% water was used in the pre-operational management steps, 4.48% was consumed during breeding, 62.72% was consumed in the hatching phase, 21.50% was used for hatchery rearing and 6.56% was consumed during conditioning. In the nursery ponds, the water gain was primarily the regulated inflow coming through the irrigation channel. The total quantum of water used in the nursery rearing was 31,60,800 L [sic]. The initial filling and regulated inflow formed 42.60% and 57.40% respectively of water gain, while evaporation, seepage and discharge contributed 20.71%, 36.46% and 42.82% respectively to the water loss. The total water expended for the entire operation was 1,21,61,120 L [sic]. Water expense occurred to produce a single spawn in the hatchery system was calculated and found to be 0.56 L while the water expended to produce one fry was calculated as 4.86 L. The study fulfills the hydrological equation described by Winter (1981) and Boyd (1985). It also validates the water budget simulation model that can be used for forecasting water requirements for aquaculture ponds (Nath and Bolte, 1998).

An analysis of factors improving technology roadmap credibility: A communications theory assessment of roadmapping processes

In recent years, many industrial firms have been able to use roadmapping as an effective process methodology for projecting future technology and for coordinating technology planning and strategy. Firms potentially realize a number of benefits in deploying technology roadmapping (TRM) processes. Roadmaps provide information identifying which new technologies will meet firms' future product demands, allowing companies to leverage R&D investments through choosing appropriately out of a range of alternative technologies. Moreover, the roadmapping process serves an important communication tool helping to bring about consensus among roadmap developers, as well as between participants brought in during the development process, who may communicate their understanding of shared corporate goals through the roadmap. However, there are few conceptual accounts or case studies have made the argument that roadmapping processes may be used effectively as communication tools. This paper, therefore, seeks to elaborate a theoretical foundation for identifying the factors that must be considered in setting up a roadmap and for analyzing the effect of these factors on technology roadmap credibility as perceived by its users. Based on the survey results of 120 different R&D units, this empirical study found that firms need to explore further how they can enable frequent interactions between the TRM development team and TRM participants. A high level of interaction will improve the credibility of a TRM, with communication channels selected by the organization also positively affecting TRM credibility. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

An integrated service-device-technology roadmap for smart city development

Firms and other organizations use Technology Roadmapping (TRM) extensively as a framework for supporting research and development of future technologies and products that could sustain a competitive advantage. While the importance of technology strategy has received more attention in recent years, few research studies have examined how roadmapping processes are used to explore the potential convergence of products and services that may be developed in the future. The aim of this paper is to introduce an integrated roadmapping process for services, devices and technologies capable of implementing a smart city development R&D project in Korea. The paper applies a QFD (Quality Function Deployment) method to establish interconnections between services and devices, and between devices and technologies. The method is illustrated by a detailed case study, which shows how different types of roadmap can be coordinated with each other to produce a clear representation of the technological changes and uncertainties associated with the strategic planning of complex innovations. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.