Creative redemption : uncertainty in poetic creativity

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Exposure estimation, uncertainty and variability in occupational hygiene retrospective assessment

This thesis reports on a quantitative exposure assessment and on an analysis of the attributes of the data used in the estimations, in particular distinguishing between its uncertainty and variability. A retrospective assessment of exposure to benzene was carried out for a case control study of leukaemia in the Australian petroleum industry. The study used the mean of personal task-based measurements (Base Estimates) in a deterministic algorithm and applied factors to model back to places, times etc for which no exposure measurements were available. Mean daily exposures were estimated, on an individual subject basis, by summing the task-based exposures. These mean exposures were multiplied by the years spent on each job to provide exposure estimates in ppm-years. These were summed to provide a Cumulative Estimate for each subject. Validation was completed for the model and key inputs. Exposures were low, most jobs were below TWA of 5 ppm benzene. Exposures in terminals were generally higher than at refineries. Cumulative Estimates ranged from 0.005 to 50.9 ppm-years, with 84 percent less than 10 ppm-years. Exposure probability distributions were developed for tanker drivers using Monte Carlo simulation of the exposure estimation algorithm. The outcome was a lognormal distribution of exposure for each driver. These provide the basis for alternative risk assessment metrics e.g. the frequency of short but intense exposures which provided only a minimal contribution to the long-term average exposure but may increase risk of leukaemia. The effect of different inputs to the model were examined and their significance assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. The Base Estimates were the most important determinant of exposure in the model. The sources of variability in the measured data were examined, including the effect of having censored data and the between and within-worker variability. The sources of uncertainty in the exposure estimates were analysed and consequential improvements in exposure assessment identified. Monte Carlo sampling was also used to examine the uncertainties and variability associated with the tanker drivers' exposure assessment, to derive an estimate of the range and to put confidence intervals on the daily mean exposures. The identified uncertainty was less than the variability associated with the estimates. The traditional approach to exposure estimation typically derives only point estimates of mean exposure. The approach developed here allows a range of exposure estimates to be made and provides a more flexible and improved basis for risk assessment.

Breast cancer : the embodied transfer of uncertainty and risk

The thesis highlights how women reconstruct themselves after mammography, following a positive diagnosis of cancer, and post mastectomy. It juxtaposes women's experiences of breast cancer with doctors' perceptions of their role in treating patients, allowing an understanding of how risk and uncertainty are transferred between the private and public spheres.

Risk and the regulation of youth(ful) identities in an age of manufactured uncertainty

Examines the benefits and dangers of allowing experts to intervene in the lives of youth, and their families, on the basis of assessing them as being at-risk.  Highlights the dangers of expert promises to prevent risk by intervening in people's lives on the basis of what is perceived to be normal or good.

Non-Deterministic Exploration through Parametric Design

This paper explores non-deterministic parametric modelling as a design tool. Specifically, it addresses the application of parametric variables to the generation of a conceptual bridge design and the use of repeatable discrete components to the conceptual form. In order to control the generation of the bridge form, a set of design variables based on the concept of a law curve have been developed.These design variables are applied and tested through interactive modelling and variation, driven by manipulating the law curve. Combining this process with the application and control of a repeatable element, known as a Representative Volumetric Element (RVE), allows for the development and exploration of a design solution that could not be achieved through the use of conventional computer modelling.The competition brief for the Australian Institute of Architects (AIA) ‘Dialectical Bridge’ has been used as a case study to demonstrate the use of non-deterministic parametric modelling as a design tool.The results of the experimentation with parametric variables, the law curve and representative volumetric elements (RVE) are presented in the paper.

Parametric modelling of architectural surfaces

Parametric modelling is gaining in popularity as both a fabrication and design tool, but its application in the architectural design industry has not been widely explored. Parametric modelling has the ability to generate complex forms with intuitively reactive components, allowing designers to express and fabricate structures previously too laborious and geometrically complex to realise. This alIows designers to address a project at both the macro and micro levels of resolution in the governing control surface and the individual repetitive component. This two level modelling control, of component and overall surface, can allow designers to explore new types of form generation subject to parametric constraints. Shading screens have been selected as the focus for this paper and are used as a medium to explore form generation within a given set of functional parameters. Screens can have many applications in a building but for the purpose of the following case studies, lighting quality and passive sun control are the main functional requirement. A set of screen components have been designed within certain shading parameters to create a generic component that can automatically adapt to any given climatic conditions. These will then be applied to surfaces of varying degrees of geometric complexity to be analysed in their ability to correctly tessellate and create a unified screening array true to the lighting requirements placed on the generic component.

Geometric and material constraints in parametric modelling : the design to fabrication process

Parametric modelling, commonly used in the automotive and aerospace industries, has recently been adopted in the architecture and construction fields. The ability to design small repeatable components and apply them to a larger governing surface geometry is one area of parametric modelling that has great design potential. This two level modelling control, of component and overall surface, can allow designers to explore new types of form generation subject to parametric constraints. This paper reports on the design to fabrication process using repeatable components over a governing or carrier surface. The paper reports on our study of the requirements and possible solutions for successfully controlling a repeatable element, known as a Representative Volumetric Element (RVE), using geometric parameters of a larger governing surface geometry and material properties. This modelling process, coupled with Rapid
Manufacturing (RM) and Computer Numerically Controlled (CNC) machines has the potential to significantly reduce the interface between design and fabrication.

Technology uncertainty and market collusion

In this paper, we propose technology uncertainty as a new factor relevant to market collusion. We analyze an infinitely repeated quantity game where, for each firm, the marginal productivity of the input employed in the production process is affected by an unobservable shock. Each firm faces technology uncertainty, measured by the variance of the shocks, in every period. We show that, under both grim trigger strategies and optimal punishments, technology uncertainty enhances cartel stability, suggesting that, in industries characterized by technology uncertainty, the actions of the antitrust authorities should be intensified. We also show that collusion is less likely when technology shocks are highly correlated, implying that regulators interested in deterring collusion should promote the formation of industrial clusters.

Tertiary education for social justice in an age of uncertainty

This thesis is concerned with tertiary teachers in a range of disciplines who focus on social justice. It found that current conditions of tertiary education are challenging for teachers and suggested that a "capabilities" approach can provide the basis for attending to professional and ethical issues for tertiary teachers.

Spirituality : providing guidance through uncertainty ®

Spirituality has all too often been neglected by both the practices and the profession of education. In these times of great uncertainty the spiritual dimension needs to be developed in order for people to more effectively navigate their way. This paper specifically examines what is understood by 'spirituality' and argues why and how it should be developed. Briefly, this dimension refers to what the meaning of life and one's self-identity are understood to be. Every person can therefore be considered to be spiritual to some extent, not just the religious.

Furthermore it considers that meaning-making, self-identity, choices, decisions and motivation, largely emerge from one's spirituality. By developing this dimension, personal well-being is enhanced and people can gain a more effective understanding of themselves and their world, elucidating what purposes are worthwhile for them to pursue.

There is an increasing interest being given to spirituality mainly from the fields of psychology, the work-place, some aspects of the New Age movement (especially self-help courses) and now also by education. It is argued that spiritual development, which is claimed to be facilitated by philosophical approaches within communities of inquiry, benefits both the learners of educational programmes and also ourselves as researchers.

Existentialism : providing an ideal framework for educational research in times of uncertainty ®

Issues such as anxiety, alienation, crises and concerns over self-identity typify this era of uncertainty. These are also recognised themes of Existentialism and have implications for educational practice and research. The purpose of this paper is threefold. Firstly, it aims to clarify Existentialism, as too often it is mistakenly assumed to refer to an atomistic view of the individual, who is able to exercise absolute freedom. This clarification refers primarily to the works of Kierkegaard, Nietzsche and Heidegger.

The second purpose is to present an outline of a particular existential framework. This is mainly structured around the notion of the learner, who is characterised as being in relation, culturally embedded, alienated and a meaning-maker. These attributes have direct implications for the ideal of 'the educated person' - an often-articulated 'aim' of education programmes. Becoming educated, according to this framework, means becoming authentic, spiritual, critical, empathetic, and having personal identity.

A third purpose is to argue how educators may usefully employ such a framework. By engaging with it, educators are able to examine effective pedagogical approaches using notions of 'the existential crisis' and anxiety. In this way, educational curriculums, programmes and policies can also be critiqued using this framework.