Voter Participation in the 1998 Bundestag Elections: A Theoretical Modification and Empirical Application of Downs’ Theory of Voter Participation

This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.

A fuzzy risk attitude classification based on prospect theory

Traditional methods do not actually measure peoples’ risk attitude naturally and precisely. Therefore, a fuzzy risk attitude classification method is developed. Since the prospect theory is usually considered as an effective model of decision making, the personalized parameters in prospect theory are firstly fuzzified to distinguish people with different risk attitudes, and then a fuzzy classification database schema is applied to calculate the exact value of risk value attitude and risk be- havior attitude. Finally, by applying a two-hierarchical clas- sification model, the precise value of synthetical risk attitude can be acquired.

From school to work: A comprehensive model of work-related motivation in the transition to working life.

Motivation is a core concept to understand work related outcomes and vocational pursuits. However, existing research mostly focused on specific aspects of motivation, such as goals or self-efficacy beliefs, while falling short of adequately addressing more complex and integrative notions of motivation. Advancing the current state of research, we draw from Motivational Systems Theory and a model of proactive motivation to propose a comprehensive model of work-related motivation. Specifically, we define motivation as a system of mutually related factors consisting of goals, emotions, and personal agency beliefs, comprised by capability beliefs and context evaluations. Adapting this model of motivation to the school-to-work transition, we postulate that this motivational system is affected by different social, personal, and environmental variables, for example social support, the presence of role-models, personality traits, and scholastic achievement. We further expect that students with more autonomous work-related goals, expectations of more positive emotional experiences in their future working life, fewer perceived barriers to their career development, and higher work-related self-efficacy beliefs would be more successful in their transition from school to work. We also propose that goal-directed engagement acts as a partial mediator in the relationship between motivation and a successful transition. Finally, we hypothesize that work-related motivation while in school will have meaningful effects on positive outcomes while in vocational training, as represented by more work engagement, higher career commitment, job satisfaction, and lower intentions to quit training. In sum, we advance the point that the adaptation of a broader concept of work-related motivation in the school-to-work transition would result in more powerful predictions of success in this transition and would enhance scientific research and interventions in career development and counselling practice.

Family change theory: A preliminary evaluation on the basis of recent cross-cultural studies

Family change theory (Kagitcibasi, 1996, 2007) is an approach which can be used to explain how modernisation and globalisation processes affect the family. The most important assumption of the theory is that when traditional interdependent cultures modernise, they need not necessarily develop in the direction of the independent family model typical of Western individualistic societies. Instead, they may develop towards a family model of emotional interdependence that combines continuing emotional interdependencies in the family with declining material interdependencies and with rising personal autonomy. In this chapter a preliminary evaluation of the empirical status of family change theory is given based on a review of recent cross-cultural studies. It will be shown to what extent the few studies that have been systematically conducted in this respect have found results either supporting or not supporting aspects ofthe theory, and where the strengths and problems of this research lie.

Development of a Bayesian Joint Logistic Model to Better Study the Association between Haplotypes and Disease

In 2011, there will be an estimated 1,596,670 new cancer cases and 571,950 cancer-related deaths in the US. With the ever-increasing applications of cancer genetics in epidemiology, there is great potential to identify genetic risk factors that would help identify individuals with increased genetic susceptibility to cancer, which could be used to develop interventions or targeted therapies that could hopefully reduce cancer risk and mortality. In this dissertation, I propose to develop a new statistical method to evaluate the role of haplotypes in cancer susceptibility and development. This model will be flexible enough to handle not only haplotypes of any size, but also a variety of covariates. I will then apply this method to three cancer-related data sets (Hodgkin Disease, Glioma, and Lung Cancer). I hypothesize that there is substantial improvement in the estimation of association between haplotypes and disease, with the use of a Bayesian mathematical method to infer haplotypes that uses prior information from known genetics sources. Analysis based on haplotypes using information from publically available genetic sources generally show increased odds ratios and smaller p-values in both the Hodgkin, Glioma, and Lung data sets. For instance, the Bayesian Joint Logistic Model (BJLM) inferred haplotype TC had a substantially higher estimated effect size (OR=12.16, 95% CI = 2.47-90.1 vs. 9.24, 95% CI = 1.81-47.2) and more significant p-value (0.00044 vs. 0.008) for Hodgkin Disease compared to a traditional logistic regression approach. Also, the effect sizes of haplotypes modeled with recessive genetic effects were higher (and had more significant p-values) when analyzed with the BJLM. Full genetic models with haplotype information developed with the BJLM resulted in significantly higher discriminatory power and a significantly higher Net Reclassification Index compared to those developed with haplo.stats for lung cancer. Future analysis for this work could be to incorporate the 1000 Genomes project, which offers a larger selection of SNPs can be incorporated into the information from known genetic sources as well. Other future analysis include testing non-binary outcomes, like the levels of biomarkers that are present in lung cancer (NNK), and extending this analysis to full GWAS studies.

Advancing the theory of collective empowerment: A qualitative study

In order to fully describe the construct of empowerment and to determine possible measures for this construct in racially and ethnically diverse neighborhoods, a qualitative study based on Grounded Theory was conducted at both the individual and collective levels. Participants for the study included 49 grassroots experts on community empowerment who were interviewed through semi-structured interviews and focus groups. The researcher also conducted field observations as part of the research protocol.^ The results of the study identified benchmarks of individual and collective empowerment and hundreds of possible markers of collective empowerment applicable in diverse communities. Results also indicated that community involvement is essential in the selection and implementation of proper measures. Additional findings were that the construct of empowerment involves specific principles of empowering relationships and particular motivational factors. All of these findings lead to a two dimensional model of empowerment based on the concepts of relationships among members of a collective body and the collective body's desire for socio-political change.^ These results suggest that the design, implementation, and evaluation of programs that foster empowerment must be based on collaborative ventures between the population being served and program staff because of the interactive, synergistic nature of the construct. In addition, empowering programs should embrace specific principles and processes of individual and collective empowerment in order to maximize their effectiveness and efficiency. And finally, the results suggest that collaboratively choosing markers to measure the processes and outcomes of empowerment in the main systems and populations living in today's multifaceted communities is a useful mechanism to determine change. ^

Barry Saltzman and the Theory of Climate

Barry Saltzman was a giant in the fields of meteorology and climate science. A leading figure in the study of weather and climate for over 40 yr, he has frequently been referred to as the "father of modern climate theory." Ahead of his time in many ways, Saltzman made significant contributions to our understanding of the general circulation and spectral energetics budget of the atmosphere, as well as climate change across a wide spectrum of time scales. In his endeavor to develop a unified theory of how the climate system works, lie played a role in the development of energy balance models, statistical dynamical models, and paleoclimate dynamical models. He was a pioneer in developing meteorologically motivated dynamical systems, including the progenitor of Lorenz's famous chaos model. In applying his own dynamical-systems approach to long-term climate change, he recognized the potential for using atmospheric general circulation models in a complimentary way. In 1998, he was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby medal, the highest honor of the American Meteorological Society "for his life-long contributions to the study of the global circulation and the evolution of the earth's climate." In this paper, the authors summarize and place into perspective some of the most significant contributions that Barry Saltzman made during his long and distinguished career. This short review also serves as an introduction to the papers in this special issue of the Journal of Climate dedicated to Barry's memory.

Outline of a theory of efficient teams in Sport.

Introduction So far, social psychology in sport has preliminary focused on team cohesion, and many studies and meta-analyses tried to demonstrate a relation between cohesiveness of a team and its performance. How a team really co-operates and how the individual actions are integrated towards a team action is a question that has received relatively little attention in research. This may, at least in part, be due to a lack of a theoretical framework for collective actions, a dearth that has only recently begun to challenge sport psychologists. Objectives In this presentation a framework for a comprehensive theory of teams in sport is outlined and its potential to integrate research in the domain of team performance and, more specifically, the following presentations, is put up for discussion. Method Based on a model developed by von Cranach, Ochsenbein and Valach (1986), teams are considered to be information processing organisms, and team actions need to be investigated on two levels: the individual team member and the group as an entity. Elements to be considered are the task, the social structure, the information processing structure and the execution structure. Obviously, different task require different social structures, communication processes and co-ordination of individual movements. Especially in rapid interactive sports planning and execution of movements based on feedback loops are not possible. Deliberate planning may be a solution mainly for offensive actions, whereas defensive actions have to adjust to the opponent team's actions. Consequently, mental representations must be developed to allow a feed-forward regulation of team member's actions. Results and Conclusions Some preliminary findings based on this conceptual framework as well as further consequences for empirical investigations will be presented. References Cranach, M.v., Ochsenbein, G. & Valach, L. (1986). The group as a self-active system: Outline of a theory of group action. European Journal of Social Psychology, 16, 193-229.

A Process Model of the Formation of Spatial Presence Experiences

In order to bridge interdisciplinary differences in Presence research and to establish connections between Presence and “older” concepts of psychology and communication, a theoretical model of the formation of Spatial Presence is proposed. It is applicable to the exposure to different media and intended to unify the existing efforts to develop a theory of Presence. The model includes assumptions about attention allocation, mental models, and involvement, and considers the role of media factors and user characteristics as well, thus incorporating much previous work. It is argued that a commonly accepted model of Spatial Presence is the only solution to secure further progress within the international, interdisciplinary and multiple-paradigm community of Presence research.

Applying prospect theory to predict new venture creation

Although prior research on new venture creation has identified several antecedents that differentiate entrepreneurs from non-entrepreneurs, scholars still have an incomplete understanding of the factors and decision processes that lead an individual to become an entrepreneur. By applying prospect theory, we introduce the reference point as an important antecedent of new venture creation. Testing our research model and hypotheses with entrepreneurs and employees, results show that entrepreneurs set more aspiring reference points and therefore find themselves more often in a perceived loss situation. Results are also robust when testing for entrepreneurial intention of business graduate students. According to prospect theory, the perceived loss triggers more risk-seeking behavior. Summing up, the reference point has a positive effect on new venture creation and differentiates entrepreneurs from nonentrepreneurs. We discuss theoretical and managerial implications of the findings and develop avenues for future research.

From Similes to Allegory: The Deconstruction of Chariot Imagery in Early Buddhist Texts, Analyzed with Cognitive Metaphor Theory

The presentation will start by unfolding the various layers of chariot imagery in early Indian sources, namely, chariots as vehicles of gods such as the sun (sūrya), i.e. as symbol of cosmic stability; chariots as symbols of royal power and social prestige e.g. of Brahmins; and, finally, chariots as metaphors for the “person”, the “mind” and the “way to liberation” (e.g., Kaṭ.-Up. III.3; Maitr.-Up. II. 6). In Buddhist and non-Buddhist sources, chariots are in certain aspects used as a metaphor for the (old) human body (e.g., Caraka-S., Vi.3.37-38; D II.100; D II.107); apart from that, there is, of course, mention of the “real” use of chariots in sports, cults, journey, and combat. The most prominent example of the Buddhist use of chariot imagery is its application as a model for the person (S I.134 f.; Milindapañha, ed. Trenckner, 26), i.e., for highlighting the “non-substantial self”. There are, however, other significant examples of the usage of chariot imagery in early Buddhist texts. Of special interest are those cases in which chariot metaphors were applied in order to explain how the ‘self’ may proceed on the way to salvation – with ‘mindfulness’ or the ‘self’ as charioteer, with ‘wisdom’ and ‘confidence’ as horses etc. (e.g. S I. 33; S V.7; Dhp 94; or the Nārada-Jātaka, No. 545, verses 181-190). One might be tempted to say that these instances reaffirm the traditional soteriology of a substantial “progressing soul”. Taking conceptual metaphor analysis as a tool, I will, in contrast, argue that there is a special Buddhist use of this metaphor. Indeed, at first sight, it seems to presuppose a non-Buddhist understanding (the “self” as charioteer; the chariot as vehicle to liberation, etc.). Yet, it will be argued that in these cases the chariot imagery is no longer fully “functional”. The Buddhist usage may, therefore, best be described as a final allegorical phase of the chariot-imagery, which results in a thorough deconstruction of the “chariot” itself.

New Constraints on Dark Matter Effective Theories from Standard Model Loops

We consider an effective field theory for a gauge singlet Dirac dark matter particle interacting with the standard model fields via effective operators suppressed by the scale Λ≳1  TeV. We perform a systematic analysis of the leading loop contributions to spin-independent Dirac dark matter–nucleon scattering using renormalization group evolution between Λ and the low-energy scale probed by direct detection experiments. We find that electroweak interactions induce operator mixings such that operators that are naively velocity suppressed and spin dependent can actually contribute to spin-independent scattering. This allows us to put novel constraints on Wilson coefficients that were so far poorly bounded by direct detection. Constraints from current searches are already significantly stronger than LHC bounds, and will improve in the near future. Interestingly, the loop contribution we find is isospin violating even if the underlying theory is isospin conserving.