A sensitivity analysis of Southwestern climate [abstract and conclusions]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We provide here an estimate of the extent that modern climate in the southwest US is sensitive to changes in several parameters that reflect global climatic changes. For the purposes of this study, we define modern climate as mean monthly values for the months of February and August (called winter and summer, respectively) of temperature and precipitation, at points representing the average of cells of dimension 7.5' on a side. The area studied surrounds the drainage basin of Death Valley, California.

Climate studies in the Long-Term Ecological Program

Since the inception of the LTER Program in 1980, climate has been studied at individual LTER sites and an LTER Climate Committee has been responsible for inter-site activities. At individual sites, climate studies support ecological research, emphasize inter-site heterogeneity, and often relate to other national monitoring and research programs. In inter-site work, the Climate Committee has produced protocols for meteorological observations, described and compared climates of the first 11 sites, and raised important issues regarding climate variability and ecosystem response.

Patterns of orographic uplift in the Sierra Nevada and their relationship to upper-level atmospheric circulation

We examine monthly and seasonal patterns of precipitation across various elevations of the eastern Central Valley of California and the Sierra Nevada. A measure of the strength of the orographic effect called the “precipitation ratio” is calculated, and we separate months into four groups based on being wet or dry and having low or high precipitation ratios. Using monthly maps of mean 700-mb height anomalies, we describe the northern hemisphere mid-tropospheric circulation patterns associated with each of the four groups. Wet months are associated with negative height anomalies over the eastern Pacific, as expected. However, the orientation of the trough is different for years with high and low precipitation ratios. Wet months with high ratios typically have circulation patterns factoring a west-southwest to east-northeast storm track from around the Hawaiian Islands to the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Wet months with low precipitation ratios are associated with a trough centered near the Aleutians and a northwest to southeast storm track. Dry months are marked by anticyclones in the Pacific, but this feature is more localized to the eastern Pacific for months with low precipitation ratios than for those with high ratios. Using precipitation gauge and snow course data from the American River and Truckee-Tahoe basins, we determined that the strength of the orographic effect on a seasonal basis is spatially coherent at low and high elevations and on opposite sides of the Sierra Nevada crestline.

An ecological characterization of the marine resources of Vieques, Puerto Rico Part II: Field studies of habitats, nutrients, contaminants, fish, and benthic communities

Since the 1940s, portions of the Island of Vieques, Puerto Rico have been used by the United States Navy (USN) as an ammunition support detachment and bombing and maneuver training range. In April 2001, the USN began phasing out military activities on the island and transferring military property to the U.S. Department of the Interior, the Municipality of Vieques, and the Puerto Rico Conservation Trust. A small number of studies have been commissioned by the USN in the past few decades to assess selected components of the coral reef ecosystem surrounding the island; however, these studies were generally of limited geographic scope and short duration. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), in consultation with NOAA’s Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) and other local and regional experts, conducted a more comprehensive characterization of coral reef ecosystems, contaminants, and nutrient distribution patterns around Vieques. This work was conducted using many of the same protocols as ongoing monitoring work underway elsewhere in the U.S. Caribbean and has enabled comparisons among coral reef ecosystems in Vieques and other locations in the region. This characterization of Vieques’ marine ecosystems consists of a two part series. First, available information on reefs, fish, birds, seagrasses, turtles, mangroves, climate, geology, currents, and human uses from previous studies was gathered and integrated into a single document comprising Part I of this two part series (Bauer et al. 2008). For Part II of the series, presented in this document, new field studies were conducted to fill data gaps identified in previous studies, to provide an island-wide characterization, and to establish baseline values for the distribution of habitats, nutrients, contaminants, fish, and benthic communities. An important objective underlying this suite of studies was to quantify any differences in the marine areas adjacent to the former and current land-use zoning around Vieques. Specifically of interest was the possibility that either Naval (e.g., practice bombing, munitions storage) or civilian activities (e.g., sewage pollutants, overfishing) could have a negative impact on adjacent marine resources. Measuring conditions at this time and so recently after the land transfer was essential because present conditions are likely to be reflective of past land-use practices. In addition, the assessment will establish benchmark conditions that can be influenced by the potentially dramatic future changes in land-use practices as Vieques considers its development. This report is organized into seven chapters that represent a suite of interrelated studies. Chapter 1 provides a short introduction to the island setting, the former and current land-use zoning, and how the land zoning was used to spatially stratify much of the sampling. Chapter 2 is focused on benthic mapping and provides the methods, accuracy assessment, and results of newly created benthic maps for Vieques. Chapter 3 presents the results of new surveys of fish, marine debris, and reef communities on hardbottom habitats around the island. Chapter 4 presents results of flora and fauna surveys in selected bays and lagoons. Chapter 5 examines the distribution of nutrients in lagoons, inshore, and offshore waters around the island. Chapter 6 is focused on the distribution of chemical contaminants in sediments and corals. Chapter 7 is a brief summary discussion that highlights key findings of the entire suite of studies.

Southern California's megaflood event of ca. 1605 AD linked to large-scale atmospheric forcing

A distinct, 1- to 2-cm-thick flood deposit found in Santa Barbara Basin with a varve-date of 1605 AD ± 5 years testifies to an intensity of precipitation that remains unmatched for later periods when historical or instrumental records can be compared against the varve record. The 1605 AD ± 5 event correlates well with Enzel's (1992) finding of a Silver Lake playa perennial lake at the terminus of the Mojave River (carbon-14-dated 1560 AD ± 90 years), in relative proximity to the rainfall catchment area draining into Santa Barbara Basin. According to Enzel, such a persistent flooding of the Silver Lake playa occurred only once during the last 3,500 years and required a sequence of floods, each comparable in magnitude to the largest floods in the modern record. To gain confidence in dating of the 1605 AD ± 5 event, we compare Southern California's sedimentary evidence against historical reports and multi-proxy time-series that indicate unusual climatic events or are sensitive to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The emerging pattern supports previous suggestions that the first decade of the 17th century was marked by a rapid cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, with some indications for global coverage. A burst of volcanism and the occurrence of El Nino seem to have contributed to the severity of the events. The synopsis of the 1605 AD ± 5 years flood deposit in Santa Barbara Basin, the substantial freshwater body at Silver Lake playa, and much additional paleoclimatic, global evidence testifies for an equatorward shift of global wind patterns as the world experienced an interval of rapid, intense, and widespread cooling.

An oceanographic characterizations of the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary and Pacific Northwest: interpretive summary of ocean climate and regional processes through satellite remote sensing

This report presents the results of a two-year investigation and summary of oceanographic satellite data obtained from multiple operational data providers and sources, spanning years of operational data collection. Long-term summaries of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and SST fronts, Sea Surface Height Anomalies (SSHA), surface currents, ocean color chlorophyll and turbidity, and winds are provided. Merged satellite oceanographic data revealed information on: (1) seasonal cycles and timing of transition periods; (2) linkages between seasonal effects (warming and cooling), upwelling processes and transport; and (3) nutrient/sediment sources, sinks, and physical limiting factors controlling surface response for Olympic Coast marine environments. These data and information can be used for building relevant hind cast models, ecological forecasts, and regional environmental indices (e.g. upwelling, climate, “hot spot”) on biological distribution and/or response in the PNW.

An assessment of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in sediments and bivalves of the U.S. coastal zone

NOAA’s Mussel Watch Program was designed to monitor the status and trends of chemical contamination of U.S. coastal waters, including the Great Lakes. The Program began in 1986 and is one of the longest running, continuous coastal monitoring programs that is national in scope. NOAA established Mussel Watch in response to a legislative mandate under Section 202 of Title II of the Marine Protection, Research and Sanctuaries Act (MPRSA) (33 USC 1442). In addition to monitoring contaminants throughout the Nation’s coastal shores, Mussel Watch stores samples in a specimen bank so that trends can be determined retrospectively for new and emerging contaminants of concern. In recent years, flame retardant chemicals, known as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), have generated international concern over their widespread distribution in the environment, their potential to bioaccumulate in humans and wildlife, and concern for suspected adverse human health effects. The Mussel Watch Program, with additional funding provided by NOAA’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative, conducted a study of PBDEs in bivalve tissues and sediments. This report, which represents the first national assessment of PBDEs in the U.S. coastal zone, shows that they are widely distributed. PBDE concentrations in both sediment and bivalve tissue correlate with human population density along the U.S. coastline. The national and watershed perspectives given in this report are intended to support research, local monitoring, resource management, and policy decisions concerning these contaminants.

Climate impacts on U. S. living marine resources: National Marine Fisheries Services concerns, activities and needs

With the increasing recognition that climate change is occurring and having large impacts on living marine resources, a sound ecosystem approach to management of those resources requires both understanding how climate affects ecosystems and integration of that understanding into management processes. The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) must identify how changing climatic conditions will impact its mission and must be prepared to adapt to these changes. This document identifies the climate related ecosystem concerns in the regional marine ecosystems for which NMFS has living marine resource management responsibilities, what NMFS is currently doing to address these concerns, what NMFS must do going forward to address these concerns, and what climate information is needed to integrate climate into resource management. The regional ecosystems included in this analysis are: the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf; the Southeast U.S. Continental Shelf, Gulf of Mexico, and U.S. Caribbean; the California Current Ecosystem; the Alaskan Ecosystem Complex; the Pacific Island Ecosystem Complex; the Eastern Tropical Pacific; North Pacific Highly Migratory Species; and the Antarctic.

A modern pollen record from the central Gulf of California

As one facet of an effort to tie the pollen record of central Gulf of California deep cores to modern analogs, pollen was analyzed in the uppermost 150-200 years of varved core 7807-1410 taken nearby. Sampling at 2- to 8-year resolution yielded a noncomplacent record, suggesting pollen in these sediments may be a potential high resolution proxy record of short-term climatic events. The pollen spectrum as a whole matches that of upper-most DSDP Site 480 (means of all samples). Lack of a ratio or influx shift following damming of local rivers and a surplus of low-spine Compositae pollen relative to mainland sites support Baumgartner's theory that terrigenous influx to the site is largely aeolian and also suggest that a significant fraction of the pollen influx may come from Baja California.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the climatic record

This paper is an attempt to provide a summary review of conclusions from previous studies on this subject. They have been organized under the following subject headings: Conceptualization of the greenhouse effect; The climatic effect of doubled carbon dioxide; Interpretation of the climatic record; Diagnosis of apparent and possible model deficiencies; The paleoclimatic record.

Climate signals in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and regression analysis are used to investigate zonally averaged seasonal temperature anomaly patterns and trends in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. The first four EOFs explain 64 percent of the temperature variance and can be related, respectively, to the solar flux (SF) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and turbidity (TB), and to ENSO. The signal of the fourth EOF is modulated in January to March by the solar flux, with the sense of the modulation determined by the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation.