Report on Expert Group Workshop on macroeconometric modelling in the Caribbean: new challenges and new directions

.--I. Background and justification.--II. Critical issues in macroeconometric modelling in the Caribbean.--III. Critical issues in macroeconometric modelling in the Caribbean.--IV. Economic modelling to determine the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean.--V. Wrap up

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

There are significant, fundamental changes taking place in global air and sea surface temperatures and sea levels. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that many of the warmest years on the instrumental record of global surface temperatures have occurred within the last twelve years, i.e. 1995-2006 (IPCC, 2007). The Caribbean tourism product is particularly vulnerable to climate change. On the demand side, mitigation measures in other countries – for example, measures to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels – could have implications for airfares and cruise prices and, therefore, for the demand for travel, particularly to long-haul destinations such as the Caribbean (Clayton, 2009). On the supply side, sea level rise will cause beaches to disappear and damage coastal resorts. Changes in the frequency and severity of hurricanes are likely to magnify that damage. Other indirect impacts on the tourism product include rising insurance premiums and competition for water resources (Cashman, Cumberbatch, & Moore, 2012). The present report has used information on historic and future Caribbean climate data to calculate that the Caribbean tourism climatic index (TCI) ranges from −20 (impossible) to +100 (ideal). In addition to projections for the Caribbean, the report has produced TCI projections for the New York City area (specifically, Central Park), which have been used as comparators for Caribbean country projections. The conditions in the source market provide a benchmark against which visitors may judge their experience in the tourism destination. The historical and forecasted TCIs for the Caribbean under both the A2 and B2 climate scenarios of the IPCC suggest that climatic conditions in the Caribbean are expected to deteriorate, and are likely to become less conducive to tourism. More specifically, the greatest decline in the TCI is likely to occur during the northern hemisphere summer months from May to September. At the same time, the scenario analysis indicates that home conditions during the traditional tourist season (December – April) are likely to improve, which could make it more attractive for visitors from these markets to consider ‘staycations’ as an alternative to overseas trips.

The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.

Gender and the Millennium Development Goals

It has now been five years since the landmark United Nations Millennium Declaration and related Development Goals (MDGs), wad adopted by Member States. The Declaration is a blueprint for action and has created a political momentum which holds great potential not only for improving the rights and empowerment of women, but more fundamentally for achieving the MDGs. The targets and indicators represent concrete benchmarks to measure progress on the eight development goals. The 2000 Millennium Declaration commits States to promote gender equality and the empowerment of women as effective ways to combat poverty, hunger, disease and to stimulate development that is truly sustainable. The acknowledgement that the achievement of women’s rights and equality is central to the achievement of social and economic development is a significant achievement. This issue of Gender Dialogue, looks at gender equality and women’s empowerment and the achievement of the MDGs.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Bahamas

The Bahamas is at great risk and vulnerability given its geographical features as a low-lying, sea encircled country. If projected sea level rise is reached by 2050, between 10-12% of territory will be lost, especially in coastal zones where the main tourism assets are located. Vulnerability could also be manifested if flight carbon emission taxes are established in the main source markets, representing an economic threat to the tourism sector for the islands. The impact of climate change on main tourism demand variables will cause some losses to the country‟s income and government revenues. This would be acting conjointly with some local threats to tourism assets and trends in future global tourism demand. The second and no less important threat is tropical cyclones, which may be associated with raising sea level. Estimations posited the amount of losses in excess of 2400 million US$ for the four decades under examination. It is to be pointed out that there is still a lack of comparatively accurate data collection and analysis on this subject, a point deserving more attention in order to deepen the understanding of, and to extract better lessons from these extreme events. In the same period, total estimated impacts of progressive climate change are between 17 and 19 billions of B$ with estimated discount rates applied. The Bahamas is a Small Island Developing State with low growth on GHG emissions (second in Latin America), as well as a relative short capacity to lower emissions in the future. The country has a relative delay in the application of renewable energy systems, a solution that, provided documented studies on-site, might turn out to be fundamental in the country‟s efforts to establish mitigation related policies. The Bahamas currently has institutions and organizations that deal with climate change-related issues and an important number of measures and courses of action have been set up by the government. Nevertheless, more coordination among them is needed and should include international institutions. This coordination is essential even for the first steps, i.e. to conduct studies with a bottom-up approach in order to draw more accurate programs on adaptation and mitigation. It is fundamental for tourism to keep track of potential losses in tourist attractions (and to act accordingly), related to correspondent losses in biodiversity, water resources and coastal erosion. Also, actions to fight climate change impacts might improve the islands security standards, quality of living and protect cultural and heritage assets. These elements may definitely shape the future of the country‟s competitiveness as a tourism destination. It is possible and necessary to decide about the options with good cost-benefit ratio and reasonable payback periods, notwithstanding that cost-benefit analysis requires more refined and accurate data to provide precise and locally adapted options.

Review of CARIFORUM-EU EPA in development cooperation and WTO compatability

The Cotonou Agreement which succeeded the Lomé IV Agreement and was signed in Cotonou in June 2000 established a comprehensive framework to govern social, economic and political relations between the Africa, Caribbean, Pacific (ACP) grouping and the European Union (EU). At the centre of the partnership are objectives relating to economic development, the reduction and eventual eradication of poverty, and the smooth and gradual integration of ACP States into the world economy. In order to accomplish these objectives, the Cotonou Agreement provides for the conclusion between the ACP and the EU of “new World Trade Organization (WTO) compatible trading arrangements, removing progressively barriers to trade between them and enhancing cooperation in all areas relevant to trade” (Article 36.1). The conclusion of economic partnership agreements (EPAs) represented one way to achieve a WTO compatible instrument and had to be negotiated during the period starting from September 2002 until 31 December 2007 to replace the trade provisions of the Cotonou Agreement. After three and half years of negotiations, CARIFORUM and the European Commission (EC) finally concluded a comprehensive EPA with the EC on 16 December 2007 when an Agreement was initialed. The EPA Parties agreed to sign it later after a review of the provisions at both the national and regional levels. In CARIFORUM, various comments have been made from governments, Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), the private sector and the labour movement about the strengths and weaknesses of the EPA. This review comes in this context and is confined to the development cooperation provisions and the question of WTO compatibility and consistency with the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) negotiations and existing WTO provisions on special and differential treatment.

Working paper on the eLAC 2018 Digital Agenda in consideration of Caribbean priorities for technology-supported development

eLAC 2018 will coordinate the implementation of programmes to support the use of information and communications technologies (ICTs) in achieving social and economic development goals for Latin America in the Caribbean during the 2015-2018 timeframe. The conceptual framework for this programme of work is described by the eLAC 2018 Digital Agenda, which is anticipated to be ratified by the fifth Ministerial Conference on the Information Society in Latin America and the Caribbean, to be held in August 2015 in Mexico City. There is a need for broader input from Caribbean countries to the eLAC 2018 Digital Agenda. Accordingly, this working paper reviews the document’s current draft, considering each of its objectives in the context of Caribbean development needs. Amendments are recommended to 12 of the objectives. Two additional objectives are also proposed, in the areas of regional coordination on universal service funds, and the establishment of a spatial data infrastructure to support the use of geographic information systems. Representatives of Caribbean countries are invited to use the contents of this document as an input to the development of their own proposed amendments for inclusion in the final version of the eLAC 2018 Digital Agenda.

An assessment of big data for official statistics in the Caribbean: Challenges and opportunities

The data revolution for sustainable development has triggered interest in the use of big data for official statistics such that theUnited Nations Economic and Social Council considers it to be almost an obligation for statistical organizations to explore big data. Big data has been promoted as a more timely and cheaper alternative to traditional sources of official data, and one that offers great potential for monitoring the sustainable development goals. However, privacy concerns, technology and capacity remain significant obstacles to the use of big data. This study makes a case for incorporating big data in official statitics in the Caribbean by highlight the opportunities that big data provides for the subregion, while suggesting ways to manage the challenges. It serves as a starting point for further discussions on the many facets of big data and provides an initial platform upon which a Caribbean big data strategy could be built.

Workshop on public participation in international negotiations on environmental matters: Panel on environmental justice and access rights for sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean

This publication was prepared with financial support from the United Nations Development Account and the project “Addressing critical socio-environmental challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean ”

Paraguay: a housing finance proposal for middle- to low-income groups

The construction and ownership of homes is fundamental to economic development, the generation of wealth and the formation of the middle class. Although a number of studies have been conducted and programmes implemented in recent decades, there remains a significant housing deficit in Paraguay and Latin America, indicating that such programmes have been unsuccessful. For families unable to document a steady income, the main obstacle to homeownership is often financing. This paper aims to demonstrate the economic and financial feasibility —provided there is sufficient political will and coordination between public and private entities— of a project to build 75,000 homes for 300,000 people (4.5% of the Paraguayan population) with middle to low incomes. The median household income in this segment, for which there is a significant shortage of decent housing, is US$ 396.50. A maximum of US$ 63.44 per month may be set aside for housing costs.

Esporte escolar e emancipação humana: reflexões à luz da ontologia marxiana

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Comunidad negra de Itacoã: territorio, biodiversidad y organización social, pilares para el etnodesarrollo?

Analisa e discute as possibilidades e limitações de etnodesenvolvimento da comunidade negra de Itacoã a partir do estudo de seus pilares de sustento: território, biodiversidade e organização social e sabendo que ela se encontra num processo de transformação das suas atividades produtivas pela maior necessidade de ingressos monetários das familias moradoras. Neste estudo, o uso e manejo dos recursos naturais, a proximidade geográfica com a cidade de Belém do Pará e a capacidade organizativa interna têm sido considerados os principais fatores favoráveis para a melhora das condições de vida de população local. Por contra, a densidade populacional em relação à área demarcada, a minimização de alguns serviços sociais e as dificuldades sazonais de obtenção de renda mínimos têm sido analisados como obstáculos para a implementação de práticas de desenvolvimento rural. De igual modo se significa a manutenção da diversidade de plantas medicinais e frutíferas na área investigada, resultado da tradicional prática do manejo agroflorestal e as contradições das relações estabelecidas entre as diversas familias do povoado e entre elas e as instituições envolvidas, públicas e de direito privado.

Subsídios geológicos para o planejamento e gestão ambiental do turismo em estâncias: estudo de caso em Paraguaçu Paulista (SP)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Subsídios à elaboração de políticas públicas de turismo sustentável com base local: diretrizes, programas, ações e indicadores de avaliação

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Resolução de problemas nos anos iniciais de escolaridade: por que é tão difícil?

Descreve uma prática de sala de aula envolvendo crianças de 3 e 4 série do ensino fundamental de uma escola particular e analisa o desempenho dessas crianças no processo de resolução de problemas de Matemática. Inicio descrevendo minha experiência profissional ensinando matemática e tomo como referência as questões e inquietações resultantes dessa prática. Para compreender tipos de problema e processos de resolução tomo como referencial teórico Polya, Pozo, Saviani e Dante. No sentido de compreender a matemática presente no ensino fundamental e sua relação com a realidade, busco referências em Kamii, Machado e D'ambrósio. Para análise dos processos desenvolvidos pelas crianças me apoio principalmente em Vergnaud e Bachelard e, para compreender a minha prática os referenciais teóricos foram buscados predominantemente em Freire. Considerei, para análise, situações problemas extraídas da realidade. Analisando os processos desenvolvidos pelas crianças percebi obstáculos à aprendizagem ocasionados, principalmente, pela forma a partir da qual os problemas são apresentados, identifiquei conceitos não completamente formados, a utilização de processos criados pelas próprias crianças, dificuldades de matematização das situações, assim como dificuldades de identificação e tratamento de dados, implícitos ou explícitos. A análise me possibilitou refletir sobre minha prática e sobre outras práticas comuns de professore(a)s.