920 resultados para nonparametric inference


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We examined phylogenetic relationships among six species representing three subfamilies, Glirinae, Graphiurinae and Leithiinae with sequences from three nuclear protein-coding genes (apolipoprotein B, APOB; interphotoreceptor retinoid-binding protein, IRBP; recombination-activating gene 1, RAG1). Phylogenetic trees reconstructed from maximum-parsimony (MP), maximum-likelihood (ML) and Bayesian-inference (BI) analyses showed the monophyly of Glirinae (Glis and Glirulus) and Leithiinae (Dryomys, Eliomys and Muscardinus) with strong support, although the branch length maintaining this relationship was very short, implying rapid diversification among the three subfamilies. Divergence time estimates were calculated from ML (local clock model) and Bayesian-dating method using a calibration point of 25 Myr (million years) ago for the divergence between Glis and Glirulus, and 55 Myr ago for the split between lineages of Gliridae and Sciuridae on the basis of fossil records. The results showed that each lineage of Graphiuros, Glis, Glirulus and Muscardinus dates from the Late Oligocene to the Early Miocene period, which is mostly in agreement with fossil records. Taking into account that warm climate harbouring a glirid-favoured forest dominated from Europe to Asia during this period, it is considered that this warm environment triggered the prosperity of the glirid species through the rapid diversification. Glirulus japonicas is suggested to be a relict of this ancient diversification during the warm period.

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BACKGROUND: Indomethacin therapy for closure of a patent ductus arteriosus in preterm neonates is responsible for transient renal insufficiency. Dopamine theoretically reduces the renal side effects of indomethacin therapy. PATIENTS: 33 neonates with a mean gestational age of 28.5 weeks who received indomethacin for treatment of a symptomatic PDA were included in a prospective randomized controlled clinical study. METHOD: 15 patients were treated with indomethacin alone (control group), 18 patients with indomethacin and dopamine (study group). Indomethacin was given in a dose of 0.2 mg/kg/dose intravenously, all patients received three doses with intervall of 12 hours. The dose of dopamine was in all patients 4 micrograms/kg per minute commencing 2 hours prior to the first dose of indomethacin and continuing for 12 hours after the third dose. RESULTS: Indomethacin induced a significant increase in serum creatinin (76.3 mumol/l vs 99.7 mumol/l for the control group, and 70.7 mumol/l vs 93.0 mumol/l for the study group), and weight (1259 g vs 1316 g for the control group, and 1187 g vs 1221 g for the study group). The increase systolic blood pressure (61 mmHg vs 65.7 mmHg) in the study group was significant (p < 0.05) but remained unchanged in the control group. The changes between the study group and the control group were not significant either in serum creatinin, fractional excretion of sodium, or weight gain. The failure rate of ductal closure was not different between the two groups. CONCLUSION: The additional use of dopamine does not reduce the renal side effects of indomethacin.

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Context:  Until now, the testosterone/epitestosterone (T/E) ratio is the main marker for detection of testosterone (T) misuse in athletes. As this marker can be influenced by a number of confounding factors, additional steroid profile parameters indicating T misuse can provide substantiating evidence of doping with endogenous steroids. The evaluation of a steroid profile is currently based upon population statistics. Since large inter-individual variations exist, a paradigm shift towards subject-based references is ongoing in doping analysis. Objective:  Proposition of new biomarkers for the detection of testosterone in sports using extensive steroid profiling and an adaptive model based upon Bayesian inference. Subjects:  6 healthy male volunteers were administered with testosterone undecanoate. Population statistics were performed upon steroid profiles from 2014 male Caucasian athletes participating in official sport competition. Design:  An extended search for new biomarkers in a comprehensive steroid profile combined with Bayesian inference techniques as used in the Athlete Biological Passport resulted in a selection of additional biomarkers that may improve detection of testosterone misuse in sports. Results:  Apart from T/E, 4 other steroid ratios (6α-OH-androstenedione/16α-OH-dehydroepiandrostenedione, 4-OH-androstenedione/16α-OH-androstenedione, 7α-OH-testosterone/7β-OH-dehydroepiandrostenedione and dihydrotestosterone/5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol) were identified as sensitive urinary biomarkers for T misuse. These new biomarkers were rated according to relative response, parameter stability, detection time and discriminative power. Conclusion:  Newly selected biomarkers were found suitable for individual referencing within the concept of the Athlete's Biological Passport. The parameters showed improved detection time and discriminative power compared to the T/E ratio. Such biomarkers can support the evidence of doping with small oral doses of testosterone.

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We investigate the evolutionary history of the greater white-toothed shrew across its distribution in northern Africa and mainland Europe using sex-specific (mtDNA and Y chromosome) and biparental (X chromosome) markers. All three loci confirm a large divergence between eastern (Tunisia and Sardinia) and western (Morocco and mainland Europe) lineages, and application of a molecular clock to mtDNA divergence estimates indicates a more ancient separation (2.25 M yr ago) than described by some previous studies, supporting claims for taxonomic revision. Moroccan ancestry for the mainland European population is inconclusive from phylogenetic trees, but is supported by greater nucleotide diversity and a more ancient population expansion in Morocco than in Europe. Signatures of rapid population expansion in mtDNA, combined with low X and Y chromosome diversity, suggest a single colonization of mainland Europe by a small number of Moroccan shrews >38 K yr ago. This study illustrates that multilocus genetic analyses can facilitate the interpretation of species' evolutionary history but that phylogeographic inference using X and Y chromosomes is restricted by low levels of observed polymorphism.

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BACKGROUND: Obesity is a major health problem in the Western world. Among obese subjects cardiac pathology is common, but conventional noninvasive imaging modalities are often suboptimal for detailed evaluation of cardiac structure and function. We investigated whether cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) can better characterize possible cardiac abnormalities associated with obesity, in the absence of other confounding comorbidities. METHODS: In this prospective cross-sectional study, CMR was used to quantify left and right ventricular volumes, ejection fraction, mass, cardiac output, and apical left ventricular rotation in 25 clinically healthy obese men and 25 age-matched lean controls. RESULTS: Obese subjects had higher left ventricular mass (203 +/- 38 g vs. 163 +/- 22 g, p < 0.001), end-diastolic volume (176 +/- 29 mL vs. 156 +/- 25 mL, p < 0.05), and cardiac output (8.2 +/- 1.2 L/min vs. 6.4 +/- 1.3 L/min, p < 0.001). The obese also had increased right ventricular mass (105 +/- 25 g vs. 87 +/- 18 g, p < 0.005) and end-diastolic volume (179 +/- 36 mL vs. 155 +/- 28 mL, p < 0.05). When indexed for height, differences in left and right ventricular mass, and left ventricular end-diastolic volume remained significant. Apical left ventricular rotation and rotational velocity patterns were also different between obese and lean subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity is independently associated with remodeling of the heart. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging identifies subtle cardiac abnormalities and may be the preferred imaging technique to evaluate cardiac structure and function in the obese.

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As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

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This study aimed to assess application of ultrasound (US) combined with microbubbles (MB) to transfect the ciliary muscle of rat eyes. Reporter DNA plasmids encoding for Gaussia luciferase, β-galactosidase or the green fluorescent protein (GFP), alone or mixed with 50% Artison MB, were injected into the ciliary muscle, with or without US exposure (US set at 1 MHz, 2 W/cm(2), 50% duty cycle for 2 min). Luciferase activity was measured in ocular fluids at 7 and 30 days after sonoporation. At 1 week, the US+MB treatment showed a significant increase in luminescence compared with control eyes, injected with plasmid only, with or without MB (×2.6), and, reporter proteins were localized in the ciliary muscle by histochemical analysis. At 1 month, a significant decrease in luciferase activity was observed in all groups. A rise in lens and ciliary muscle temperature was measured during the procedure but did not result in any observable or microscopic damages at 1 and 8 days. The feasibility to transfer gene into the ciliary muscle by US and MB suggests that sonoporation may allow intraocular production of proteins for the treatment of inflammatory, angiogenic and/or degenerative retinal diseases.

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It has been repeatedly debated which strategies people rely on in inference. These debates have been difficult to resolve, partially because hypotheses about the decision processes assumed by these strategies have typically been formulated qualitatively, making it hard to test precise quantitative predictions about response times and other behavioral data. One way to increase the precision of strategies is to implement them in cognitive architectures such as ACT-R. Often, however, a given strategy can be implemented in several ways, with each implementation yielding different behavioral predictions. We present and report a study with an experimental paradigm that can help to identify the correct implementations of classic compensatory and non-compensatory strategies such as the take-the-best and tallying heuristics, and the weighted-linear model.

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Visual inspection remains the most frequently applied method for detecting treatment effects in single-case designs. The advantages and limitations of visual inference are here discussed in relation to other procedures for assessing intervention effectiveness. The first part of the paper reviews previous research on visual analysis, paying special attention to the validation of visual analysts" decisions, inter-judge agreement, and false alarm and omission rates. The most relevant factors affecting visual inspection (i.e., effect size, autocorrelation, data variability, and analysts" expertise) are highlighted and incorporated into an empirical simulation study with the aim of providing further evidence about the reliability of visual analysis. Our results concur with previous studies that have reported the relationship between serial dependence and increased Type I rates. Participants with greater experience appeared to be more conservative and used more consistent criteria when assessing graphed data. Nonetheless, the decisions made by both professionals and students did not match sufficiently the simulated data features, and we also found low intra-judge agreement, thus suggesting that visual inspection should be complemented by other methods when assessing treatment effectiveness.

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The yearly genetic progress obtained by breeding for increased soybean yield has been considered acceptable worldwide. It is common sense, however, that this progress can be improved further if refined breeding techniques, developed from the knowledge of the genetic mechanisms controlling soybean yield, are used. In this paper, data from four cultivars and/or lines and their derived sets of F2, F3, F7, F8, F9 and F10 generations assayed in 17 environments were analyzed to allow an insight of the genetic control of soybean yield under different environmental conditions. The general picture was of a complex polygene system controlling yield in soybeans. Additive genetic effects predominated although dominance was often found to be significant. Complications such as epistasis, linkage and macro and micro genotype x environment (G x E) interactions were also commonly detected. The overall heritability was 0.29. The relative magnitude of the additive effects and the complicating factors allowed the inference that the latter are not a serious problem to the breeder. The low heritability values and the considerable magnitude of G x E interactions for yield, however, indicated that careful evaluation through experiments designed to allow for the presence of these effects is necessary for successful selection.

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A family history of coronary artery disease (CAD), especially when the disease occurs at a young age, is a potent risk factor for CAD. DNA collection in families in which two or more siblings are affected at an early age allows identification of genetic factors for CAD by linkage analysis. We performed a genomewide scan in 1,168 individuals from 438 families, including 493 affected sibling pairs with documented onset of CAD before 51 years of age in men and before 56 years of age in women. We prospectively defined three phenotypic subsets of families: (1) acute coronary syndrome in two or more siblings; (2) absence of type 2 diabetes in all affected siblings; and (3) atherogenic dyslipidemia in any one sibling. Genotypes were analyzed for 395 microsatellite markers. Regions were defined as providing evidence for linkage if they provided parametric two-point LOD scores >1.5, together with nonparametric multipoint LOD scores >1.0. Regions on chromosomes 3q13 (multipoint LOD = 3.3; empirical P value <.001) and 5q31 (multipoint LOD = 1.4; empirical P value <.081) met these criteria in the entire data set, and regions on chromosomes 1q25, 3q13, 7p14, and 19p13 met these criteria in one or more of the subsets. Two regions, 3q13 and 1q25, met the criteria for genomewide significance. We have identified a region on chromosome 3q13 that is linked to early-onset CAD, as well as additional regions of interest that will require further analysis. These data provide initial areas of the human genome where further investigation may reveal susceptibility genes for early-onset CAD.

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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The ongoing increase in life expectancy in developed countries is associated with changes in the shape of the survival curve. These changes can be characterized by two main, distinct components: (i) the decline in premature mortality, i.e., the concentration of deaths around some high value of the mean age at death, also termed rectangularization of the survival curve; and (ii) the increase of this mean age at death, i.e., longevity, which directly reflects the reduction of mortality at advanced ages. Several recent observations suggest that both mechanisms are simultaneously taking place. METHODS: We propose a set of indicators aiming to quantify, disentangle, and compare the respective contribution of rectangularization and longevity increase to the secular increase of life expectancy. These indicators, based on a nonparametric approach, are easy to implement. RESULTS: We illustrate the method with the evolution of the Swiss mortality data between 1876 and 2006. Using our approach, we are able to say that the increase in longevity and rectangularization explain each about 50% of the secular increase of life expectancy. CONCLUSION: Our method may provide a useful tool to assess whether the contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase of life expectancy will remain around 50% or whether it will be increasing in the next few years, and thus whether concentration of mortality will eventually take place against some ultimate biological limit.

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BACKGROUND: The estimation of demographic parameters from genetic data often requires the computation of likelihoods. However, the likelihood function is computationally intractable for many realistic evolutionary models, and the use of Bayesian inference has therefore been limited to very simple models. The situation changed recently with the advent of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms allowing one to obtain parameter posterior distributions based on simulations not requiring likelihood computations. RESULTS: Here we present ABCtoolbox, a series of open source programs to perform Approximate Bayesian Computations (ABC). It implements various ABC algorithms including rejection sampling, MCMC without likelihood, a Particle-based sampler and ABC-GLM. ABCtoolbox is bundled with, but not limited to, a program that allows parameter inference in a population genetics context and the simultaneous use of different types of markers with different ploidy levels. In addition, ABCtoolbox can also interact with most simulation and summary statistics computation programs. The usability of the ABCtoolbox is demonstrated by inferring the evolutionary history of two evolutionary lineages of Microtus arvalis. Using nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial sequence data in the same estimation procedure enabled us to infer sex-specific population sizes and migration rates and to find that males show smaller population sizes but much higher levels of migration than females. CONCLUSION: ABCtoolbox allows a user to perform all the necessary steps of a full ABC analysis, from parameter sampling from prior distributions, data simulations, computation of summary statistics, estimation of posterior distributions, model choice, validation of the estimation procedure, and visualization of the results.

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OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence, predictors, and clinical significance of electrographic seizures (ESz) and other continuous electroencephalographic monitoring findings in critically ill patients with central nervous system infections. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Eighteen-bed neurocritical care unit. PATIENTS: We identified 42 consecutive patients with primary central nervous system infection (viral, 27 patients [64%]; bacterial, 8 patients [18%]; and fungal or parasitic, 7 patients [17%]) who underwent continuous electroencephalographic monitoring between January 1, 1996, and February 28, 2007. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Presence of ESz or periodic epileptiform discharges (PEDs). RESULTS: Electrographic seizures were recorded in 14 patients (33%), and PEDs were recorded in 17 patients (40%). Twenty patients (48%) had either PEDs or ESz. Of the 14 patients with ESz, only 5 (36%) had a clinical correlate. Periodic epileptiform discharges (odds ratio=13.4; P=.001) and viral cause (odds ratio=13.0; P=.02) were independently associated with ESz. Both ESz (odds ratio=5.9; P=.02) and PEDs (odds ratio=6.1; P=.01) were independently associated with poor outcome at discharge (severe disability, vegetative state, or death). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with central nervous system infections undergoing continuous electroencephalographic monitoring, ESz and/or PEDs were frequent, occurring in 48% of our cohort. More than half of the ESz had no clinical correlate. Both ESz and PEDs were independently associated with poor outcome. Additional studies are needed to determine whether prevention or treatment of these electrographic findings improves outcome.