Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models

This paper suggests that a convenient score test against non-nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the competing models. It is shown that this procedure is essentially a test for the correct specification of the conditional distribution of the variable of interest.

P2P service exposer

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Occurrence of Ancylostoma in dogs, cats and public places from Andradina city, São Paulo state, Brazil

The aim of this study was to determine the frequency and intensity of Ancylostoma spp. in 33 dogs and 52 cats by means of coproparasitological examinations and parasitological necropsy, and assess the presence of contaminated feces with eggs of that parasite in public places of Andradina Municipality, São Paulo State, Brazil. Willis-Mollay and Sedimentation methods indicated Ancylostoma spp. eggs in 87.8% (29/33) dogs and 94.2% (49/52) cats. The species A. caninum and A. braziliense were found in 63.6% (21/33) and 30.3% (10/33) of dogs, respectively. Considering cats, 67.3% (35/52) were parasitized by A. braziliense, 21.1% (11/52) by A. caninum, and 9.6% (5/52) by A. tubaeforme. Forty-two canine fecal samples were collected from public environments, including 23 squares/gardens and 19 streets/sidewalks. Positive samples for Ancylostoma spp. accounted for 64.3% (27/42); squares/gardens had 60.9% (14/23) positive samples, and streets and sidewalks, 68.4% (13/19). No association was observed between the number of Ancylostoma spp parasites and age, sex and breed of the animals and also the ratio of EPG counts and the parasitic intensity observed at necropsy (p > 0.05). Based on the high occurrence of hookworm in dogs and cats in this study, the treatment with anti helminthics are needed even in those animals with negative stool tests, besides adopting control of the number of animals in public places, in order to decrease the likelihood of environmental contamination, since this parasite represents a potential hazard to human and animal health.

High prevalence of dna from non-H. pylori helicobacters in the gastric mucosa of venezuelan pet dogs and its histological alterations

Non-H. pylori helicobacters (NHPH) have been demonstrated as gastric spiral-shaped bacteria in specimens obtained from dogs; however, their roles in the pathogenesis of upper gastrointestinal disease have not yet been clearly established. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of NHPH DNA in the gastric mucosa of dogs and its association with histopathology. Helicobacter was detected through histopathological techniques, PCR, and FISH analysis from fundic biopsies of twenty dogs with or without signs of gastrointestinal disease. PCR and FISH were based on partial 16S rRNA gene sequences. Nineteen dogs showed mild to marked gastritis in the fundus, and only one dog had a healthy gastric mucosa. NHPH DNA was detected in 18 dogs with gastritis and one with normal gastric mucosa. However, there was no significant correlation between the presence of NHPH DNA and the degree of gastritis. These results show a high prevalence of NHPH DNA in the gastric mucosa of dogs from Venezuela. Further studies are necessary to determine a possible association between a specific NHPH species and the degree of gastritis.

Yellow fever epizootics in non-human primates, São Paulo state, Brazil, 2008-2009

Since 2000, the expansion of Sylvatic Yellow Fever (YF) has been observed in the southeast of Brazil, being detected in areas considered silent for decades. Epizootics in non-human primates (NHPs) are considered sentinel events for the detection of human cases. It is important to report epizootic events that could have impact on the conservation status of susceptible species. We describe the epizootics in NHPs, notified in state of São Paulo, Brazil, between September 2008 to August 2009. Ninety-one epizootic events, involving 147 animals, were reported in 36 counties. Samples were obtained from 65 animals (44.2%). Most of the epizootics (46.6%) were reported between March and April, the same period during which human cases of YF occurred in the state. Biological samples were collected from animals found dead and were sent to Instituto Adolfo Lutz, in São Paulo. Two samples, collected in two counties without an indication for YF vaccination, were positive for the virus. Another 48 animals were associated with YF by clinical-epidemiological linkage with laboratory confirmed cases. Because the disease in human and NHPs occurred in the same period, the detection of the virus in NHPs did not work as sentinel, but aided in the delineation of new areas of risk.

Which “place and non-place” do women occupy in social economy organisations?

Scientific literature has strengthened the perpetuation of inequality factors in the labour market based on gender, despite the on-going endeavour of various political bodies and legal norms against the vertical and horizontal segregation of women. National and European statistical data shows the relevance and timeless features of theories of market segmentation associated with the labour market dating back to the 70’s of the 20th century. Hence, the European Community considers as a priority in the Europe 2020 strategy, the definition of “policies to promote gender equality […] to increase labour force participation thus adding to growth and social cohesion”. If we consider that on the one hand, social economy is fairly recognised to be equated with market actors and the State for its economic and social role in tackling the current crisis, and on the other hand, that the ideals of the sector, systematised in the “Framework Law of Social Economy” (Law no. 30/2013 8th of May), particularly in article 5 proposing “the respect for the values […] of equality and non-discrimination […], justice and equity […]”, we aim to reflect on indicators that uncover a vertical and horizontal segregation in the labour market. Departing from a mixed methodological approach (extensive and intensive), subject to the topic of "Social Entrepreneurship in Portugal" in social economy organisations, we detect very high rates of employment feminisation, with a ratio of 1 man (23%) for every 3 women (77%). Women are mainly earmarked for technical and operational activities, arising from the privileged intervention areas, namely education, training, health, elderly, families, poverty, ultimately being underrepresented in statutory boards and, as such, far removed from deliberations and strategic resolutions. This is particularly visible in the existing hierarchy of functions and management practices of the responsibility of male members. Thus, it seems easily verified that the sector is travelling away from the ideals of justice and social equity, which can crystallise the "non-place" of women in the definition of a strategic direction of social economy and in the most invisible/private “place” of the organisational setting.

Long-Term Evaluation of Recurrence after Photodynamic Therapy with Topical Methyl Aminolevulinate for Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer: a Hospital-Based Study

Introduction & Objectives: Several factors may influence the decision to pursue nonsurgical modalities for the treatment of non-melanoma skin cancer. Topical photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a non-invasive alternative treatment reported to have a high efficacy when using standardized protocols in Bowen’s disease (BD), superficial basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and in thin nodular BCC. However, long-term recurrence studies are lacking. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term efficacy of PDT with topical methylaminolevulinate (MAL) for the treatment of BD and BCC in a dermato-oncology department. Materials & Methods: All patients with the diagnosis of BD or BCC, treated with MAL-PDT from the years 2004 to 2008, were enrolled. Treatment protocol included two MAL-PDT sessions one week apart repeated at three months when incomplete response, using a red light dose of 37-40 J/cm2 and an exposure time of 8’20’’. Clinical records were retrospectively reviewed, and data regarding age, sex, tumour location, size, treatment outcomes and recurrence were registered. Descriptive analysis was performed using chi square tests, followed by survival analysis with the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models. Results: Sixty-eight patients (median age 71.0 years, P25;P75=30;92) with a total of 78 tumours (31 BD, 45 superficial BCC, 2 nodular BCC) and a median tumour size of 5 cm2 were treated. Overall, the median follow-up period was 43.5 months (P25;P75=0;100), and a total recurrence rate of 33.8% was observed (24.4 % for BCC vs. 45.2% for BD). Estimated recurrence rates for BCC and BD were 5.0% vs. 7.4% at 6 months, 23.4% vs. 27.9% at 12 months, and 30.0% vs. 72.4% at 60 months. Both age and diagnosis were independent prognostic factors for recurrence, with significantly higher estimated recurrence rates in patients with BD (p=0.0036) or younger than 58 years old (p=0.039). The risk of recurrence (hazard ratio) was 2.4 times higher in patients with BD compared to superficial BCC (95% CI:1.1-5.3; p=0.033), and 2.8 times higher in patients younger than 58 years old (95% CI:1.2-6.5; p=0.02). Conclusions: In the studied population, estimated recurrence rates are higher than those expected from available literature, possibly due to a longer follow-up period. To the authors’ knowledge there is only one other study with a similar follow-up period, regarding BCC solely. BD, as an in situ squamous cell carcinoma, has a higher tendency to recur than superficial BCC. Despite greater cosmesis, PDT might no be the best treatment option for young patients considering their higher risk of recurrence.

MULTIPLEX SYBR® GREEN-REAL TIME PCR (qPCR) ASSAY FOR THE DETECTION AND DIFFERENTIATION OF Bartonella henselae AND Bartonella clarridgeiae IN CATS

A novel SYBR® green-real time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was developed to detect two Bartonellaspecies, B. henselae and B. clarridgeiae, directly from blood samples. The test was used in blood samples obtained from cats living in animal shelters in Southern Brazil. Results were compared with those obtained by conventional PCR targeting Bartonella spp. Among the 47 samples analyzed, eight were positive using the conventional PCR and 12 were positive using qPCR. Importantly, the new qPCR detected the presence of both B. henselae and B. clarridgeiae in two samples. The results show that the qPCR described here may be a reliable tool for the screening and differentiation of two important Bartonella species.

PREVALENCE OF ANTIBODIES AGAINST INFLUENZA VIRUS IN NON-VACCINATED EQUINES FROM THE BRAZILIAN PANTANAL

The prevalence of antibodies against Equine Influenza Virus (EIV) was determined in 529 equines living on ranches in the municipality of Poconé, Pantanal area of Brazil, by means of the hemagglutination inhibition test, using subtype H3N8 as antigen. The distribution and possible association among positive animal and ranches were evaluated by the chi-square test, spatial autoregressive and multiple linear regression models. The prevalence of antibodies against EIV was estimated at 45.2% (95% CI 30.2 - 61.1%) with titers ranging from 20 to 1,280 HAU. Seropositive equines were found on 92.0% of the surveyed ranches. Equine from non-flooded ranches (66.5%) and negativity in equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV) (61.7%) were associated with antibodies against EIV. No spatial correlation was found among the ranches, but the ones located in non-flooded areas were associated with antibodies against EIV. A negative correlation was found between the prevalence of antibodies against EIV and the presence of EIAV positive animals on the ranches. The high prevalence of antibodies against EIV detected in this study suggests that the virus is circulating among the animals, and this statistical analysis indicates that the movement and aggregation of animals are factors associated to the transmission of the virus in the region.

Esclonamento de máquinas de cogeração utilzando programação inteira mista

As centrais termoelétricas convencionais convertem apenas parte do combustível consumido na produção de energia elétrica, sendo que outra parte resulta em perdas sob a forma de calor. Neste sentido, surgiram as unidades de cogeração, ou Combined Heat and Power (CHP), que permitem reaproveitar a energia dissipada sob a forma de energia térmica e disponibilizá-la, em conjunto com a energia elétrica gerada, para consumo doméstico ou industrial, tornando-as mais eficientes que as unidades convencionais Os custos de produção de energia elétrica e de calor das unidades CHP são representados por uma função não-linear e apresentam uma região de operação admissível que pode ser convexa ou não-convexa, dependendo das caraterísticas de cada unidade. Por estas razões, a modelação de unidades CHP no âmbito do escalonamento de geradores elétricos (na literatura inglesa Unit Commitment Problem (UCP)) tem especial relevância para as empresas que possuem, também, este tipo de unidades. Estas empresas têm como objetivo definir, entre as unidades CHP e as unidades que apenas geram energia elétrica ou calor, quais devem ser ligadas e os respetivos níveis de produção para satisfazer a procura de energia elétrica e de calor a um custo mínimo. Neste documento são propostos dois modelos de programação inteira mista para o UCP com inclusão de unidades de cogeração: um modelo não-linear que inclui a função real de custo de produção das unidades CHP e um modelo que propõe uma linearização da referida função baseada na combinação convexa de um número pré-definido de pontos extremos. Em ambos os modelos a região de operação admissível não-convexa é modelada através da divisão desta àrea em duas àreas convexas distintas. Testes computacionais efetuados com ambos os modelos para várias instâncias permitiram verificar a eficiência do modelo linear proposto. Este modelo permitiu obter as soluções ótimas do modelo não-linear com tempos computationais significativamente menores. Para além disso, ambos os modelos foram testados com e sem a inclusão de restrições de tomada e deslastre de carga, permitindo concluir que este tipo de restrições aumenta a complexidade do problema sendo que o tempo computacional exigido para a resolução do mesmo cresce significativamente.

SURVIVAL, INDUCTION AND RESUSCITATION OF Vibrio cholerae FROM THE VIABLE BUT NON-CULTURABLE STATE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA

The causative agent of cholera, Vibrio cholerae, can enter into a viable but non-culturable (VBNC) state in response to unfavorable conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the in situ survival of V. cholerae in an aquatic environment of the Southern Caribbean Sea, and its induction and resuscitation from the VBNC state. V. cholerae non-O1, non-O139 was inoculated into diffusion chambers placed at the Cuare Wildlife Refuge, Venezuela, and monitored for plate, total and viable cells counts. At 119 days of exposure to the environment, the colony count was < 10 CFU/mL and a portion of the bacterial population entered the VBNC state. Additionally, the viability decreased two orders of magnitude and morphological changes occurred from rod to coccoid cells. Among the aquatic environmental variables, the salinity had negative correlation with the colony counts in the dry season. Resuscitation studies showed significant recovery of cell cultivability with spent media addition (p < 0.05). These results suggest that V. cholerae can persist in the VBNC state in this Caribbean environment and revert to a cultivable form under favorable conditions. The VBNC state might represent a critical step in cholera transmission in susceptible areas.

Contribuição ao estudo da mistura néon-azoto a baixas temperaturas

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Física

CHEMOPROPHYLAXIS TO CONTROL LEPROSY AND THE PERSPECTIVE OF ITS IMPLEMENTATION IN BRAZIL: A PRIMER FOR NON-EPIDEMIOLOGISTS

The occurrence of leprosy has decreased in the world but the perspective of its elimination has been questioned. A proposed control measure is the use of post-exposure chemoprophylaxis (PEP) among contacts, but there are still questions about its operational aspects. In this text we discuss the evidence available in literature, explain some concepts in epidemiology commonly used in the research on this topic, analyze the appropriateness of implementing PEP in the context of Brazil, and answer a set of key questions. We argue some points: (1) the number of contacts that need to receive PEP in order to prevent one additional case of disease is not easy to be generalized from the studies; (2) areas covered by the family health program are the priority settings where PEP could be implemented; (3) there is no need for a second dose; (4) risk for drug resistance seems to be very small; (5) the usefulness of a serological test to identify a higher risk group of individuals among contacts is questionable. Given that, we recommend that, if it is decided to start PEP in Brazil, it should start on a small scale and, as new evidence can be generated in terms of feasibility, sustainability and impact, it could move up a scale, or not, for a wider intervention.

HEPATOCELLULAR CARCINOMA IN A NON-CIRRHOTIC PATIENT WITH SUSTAINED VIROLOGICAL RESPONSE AFTER HEPATITIS C TREATMENT

Chronic infection by hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the main risk factors for the development of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. However, the emergence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in non-cirrhotic HCV patients, especially after sustained virological response (SVR) is an unusual event. Recently, it has been suggested that HCV genotype 3 may have a particular oncogenic mechanism, but the factors involved in these cases as well as the profile of these patients are still not fully understood. Thus, we present the case of a non-cirrhotic fifty-year-old male with HCV infection, genotype 3a, who developed HCC two years after treatment with pegylated-interferon and ribavirin, with SVR, in Brazil.