An overview of domestic energy models and a new approach with agent based modelling

Government targets for CO2 reductions are being progressively tightened, the Climate Change Act set the UK target as an 80% reduction by 2050 on 1990 figures. The residential sector accounts for about 30% of emissions. This paper discusses current modelling techniques in the residential sector: principally top-down and bottom-up. Top-down models work on a macro-economic basis and can be used to consider large scale economic changes; bottom-up models are detail rich to model technological changes. Bottom-up models demonstrate what is technically possible. However, there are differences between the technical potential and what is likely given the limited economic rationality of the typical householder. This paper recommends research to better understand individuals’ behaviour. Such research needs to include actual choices, stated preferences and opinion research to allow a detailed understanding of the individual end user. This increased understanding can then be used in an agent based model (ABM). In an ABM, agents are used to model real world actors and can be given a rule set intended to emulate the actions and behaviours of real people. This can help in understanding how new technologies diffuse. In this way a degree of micro-economic realism can be added to domestic carbon modelling. Such a model should then be of use for both forward projections of CO2 and to analyse the cost effectiveness of various policy measures.

The gender gap in real estate sales: negotiation skill or agent selection?

This study examines differences in net selling price for residential real estate across male and female agents. A sample of 2,020 home sales transactions from Fulton County, Georgia are analyzed in a two-stage least squares, geospatial autoregressive corrected, semi-log hedonic model to test for gender and gender selection effects. Although agent gender seems to play a role in naïve models, its role becomes inconclusive as variables controlling for possible price and time on market expectations of the buyers and sellers are introduced to the models. Clear differences in real estate sales prices, time on market, and agent incomes across genders are unlikely due to differences in negotiation performance between genders or the mix of genders in a two-agent negotiation. The evidence suggests an interesting alternative to agent performance: that buyers and sellers with different reservation price and time on market expectations, such as those selling foreclosure homes, tend to select agents along gender lines.

Wave-breaking characteristics of midlatitude blocking

In this article, Northern Hemisphere winter midlatitude blocking is analysed through its wave-breaking characteristics. Rossby wave breaking is identified as a key process in blocking occurrence, as it provides the mechanism for the meridional reversal pattern typical of blocking. Two indices are designed to detect the major properties of wave breaking, i.e. the orientation (cyclonic/anticyclonic–direction of breaking or DB index) and the relative contribution of air masses (warm/cold–relative intensity or RI index). The use of the DB index differentiates between the anticyclonic cases over Europe and Asia and the cyclonic events over the oceanic basins. One of the three regions displaying cyclonic type was found over the Atlantic Ocean, the other two being over the Pacific Ocean. The first of these is located over the western side of the Pacific and is dominated by warm air extrusions, whereas the second is placed northward of the exit region of the jet stream, where the meridional θ gradient is much weaker. Two European blocking types have been detected using the RI index, which separates out the cases dominated by warm and cold air masses. The latter cases in particular exhibited a well-structured dipole, with associated strong anomalies in both temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

In vivo characterization of Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 for use as a defined competitive exclusion agent against bacterial pathogens in poultry

Aims: To test the efficacy of Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 in reducing the colonization and shedding of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis, Escherichia coli O78:K80 and Clostridium perfringens in poultry. Methods and Results: Specific pathogen-free chicks (1 day old) were dosed with a single oral inoculum of 1 x 10(9) CFU. Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 and 24 h later were challenged in separate experiments with S. Enteritidis (S1400, nal(r)) and E. coli O78:K80 (EC34195, nal(r)). There were no significant effects against S. Enteritidis whereas colonization of the small intestine by E. coli O78:K80 was reduced significantly. Both S. Enteritidis and E. coli colonized the caeca and colon to levels equivalent to control birds and there was no reduction in shedding as assessed by a semi-quantitative cloacal swabbing technique. Specific pathogen-free chicks (20 day old) were dosed with a single oral inoculum of 1 x 10(9) CFU L. johnsonii FI9785 and 24 h later were challenged with C. perfringens. A single oral dose of L. johnsonii FI9785 was sufficient to suppress all aspects of colonization and persistence of C. perfringens. Conclusions: Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 may be given to poultry for use as a competitive exclusion agent to control C. perfringens. Significance and Impact of the Study: Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 may be a valuable tool to control the endemic disease of necrotic enteritis, thereby reducing economic losses associated with reduced use of antimicrobials in the poultry industry.

Representing the acquisition and use of energy by individuals in agent-based models of animal populations

Summary 1. Agent-based models (ABMs) are widely used to predict how populations respond to changing environments. As the availability of food varies in space and time, individuals should have their own energy budgets, but there is no consensus as to how these should be modelled. Here, we use knowledge of physiological ecology to identify major issues confronting the modeller and to make recommendations about how energy budgets for use in ABMs should be constructed. 2. Our proposal is that modelled animals forage as necessary to supply their energy needs for maintenance, growth and reproduction. If there is sufficient energy intake, an animal allocates the energy obtained in the order: maintenance, growth, reproduction, energy storage, until its energy stores reach an optimal level. If there is a shortfall, the priorities for maintenance and growth/reproduction remain the same until reserves fall to a critical threshold below which all are allocated to maintenance. Rates of ingestion and allocation depend on body mass and temperature. We make suggestions for how each of these processes should be modelled mathematically. 3. Mortality rates vary with body mass and temperature according to known relationships, and these can be used to obtain estimates of background mortality rate. 4. If parameter values cannot be obtained directly, then values may provisionally be obtained by parameter borrowing, pattern-oriented modelling, artificial evolution or from allometric equations. 5. The development of ABMs incorporating individual energy budgets is essential for realistic modelling of populations affected by food availability. Such ABMs are already being used to guide conservation planning of nature reserves and shell fisheries, to assess environmental impacts of building proposals including wind farms and highways and to assess the effects on nontarget organisms of chemicals for the control of agricultural pests. Keywords: bioenergetics; energy budget; individual-based models; population dynamics.

Numerical prediction of atmospheric blocking-A case study

A series of numerical models have been used to investigate the predictability of atmospheric blocking for an episode selected from FGGE Special Observing Period I. Level II-b FGGE data have been used in the experiment. The blocking took place over the North Atlantic region and is a very characteristic example of high winter blocking. It is found that the very high resolution models developed at ECMWF, in a remarkable way manage to predict the blocking event in great detail, even beyond 1 week. Although models with much less resolution manage to predict the blocking phenomenon as such, the actual evolution differs very much from the observed and consequently the practical value is substantially reduced. Wind observations from the geostationary satellites are shown to have a substantial impact on the forecast beyond 5 days, as well as an extension of the integration domain to the whole globe. Quasi-geostrophic baroclinic models and, even more, barotropic models, are totally inadequate to predict blocking except in its initial phase. The prediction experiment illustrates clearly that efforts which have gone into the improvement of numerical prediction models in the last decades have been worth while.

Numerical prediction of atmospheric blocking - A case study

One of the fundamental questions in dynamical meteorology, and one of the basic objectives of GARP, is to determine the predictability of the atmosphere. In the early planning stage and preparation for GARP a number of theoretical and numerical studies were undertaken, indicating that there existed an inherent unpredictability in the atmosphere which even with the most ideal observing system would limit useful weather forecasting to 2-3 weeks.

Review of theories for blocking

A typical feature of the atmospheric circulation at middle and high latitudes is a tendency to fluctuate between two rather extreme circulation patterns. This behaviour of the atmosphere is most common at the Northern Hemisphere during the winter and has been known among the meteorologists for a considerable time (e.g. Garriott (1904)). One of these two states is identified by a predominantly zonal circulation or a so-called high-index circulation, the other state by a meridional or a low-index circulation. The meridional circulation is often broken up in a characteristic atmospheric pattern of cut-off lows and highs. These features usually have a time scale of several days during which they affect the weather in a very dominating way. The transition from the zonal to the meridional or cellular circulation is very characteristic and follows a very typical chain of events.

A multi-agent system for pervasive healthcare

Wireless technology based pervasive healthcare has been proposed in many applications such as disease management and accident prevention for cost saving and promoting citizen’s wellbeing. However, the emphasis so far is on the artefacts with limited attentions to guiding the development of an effective and efficient solution for pervasive healthcare. Therefore, this paper aims to propose a framework of multi-agent systems design for pervasive healthcare by adopting the concept of pervasive informatics and using the methods of organisational semiotics. The proposed multi-agent system for pervasive healthcare utilises sensory information to support healthcare professionals for providing appropriate care. The key contributions contain theoretical aspect and practical aspect. In theory, this paper articulates the information interactions between the pervasive healthcare environment and stakeholders by using the methods of organisational semiotics; in practice, the proposed framework improves the healthcare quality by providing appropriate medical attentions when and as needed. In this paper, both systems and functional architecture of the multi-agent system are elaborated with the use of wireless technologies such as RFID and wireless sensor networks. The future study will focus on the implementation of the proposed framework.

Wave-breaking characteristics of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: a two-dimensional approach

This paper generalises and applies recently developed blocking diagnostics in a two- dimensional latitude-longitude context, which takes into consideration both mid- and high-latitude blocking. These diagnostics identify characteristics of the associated wave-breaking as seen in the potential temperature (θ) on the dynamical tropopause, in particular the cyclonic or anticyclonic Direction of wave-Breaking (DB index), and the Relative Intensity (RI index) of the air masses that contribute to blocking formation. The methodology is extended to a 2-D domain and a cluster technique is deployed to classify mid- and high-latitude blocking according to the wave-breaking characteristics. Mid-latitude blocking is observed over Europe and Asia, where the meridional gradient of θ is generally weak, whereas high-latitude blocking is mainly present over the oceans, to the north of the jet-stream, where the meridional gradient of θ is much stronger. They occur respectively on the equatorward and poleward flank of the jet- stream, where the horizontal shear ∂u/∂y is positive in the first case and negative in the second case. A regional analysis is also conducted. It is found that cold-anticyclonic and cyclonic blocking divert the storm-track respectively to the south and to the north over the East Atlantic and western Europe. Furthermore, warm-cyclonic blocking over the Pacific and cold-anticyclonic blocking over Europe are identified as the most persistent types and are associated with large amplitude anomalies in temperature and precipitation. Finally, the high-latitude, cyclonic events seem to correlate well with low- frequency modes of variability over the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean.

Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models

The frequencies of atmospheric blocking in both winter and summer and the changes in them from the 20th to the 21st centuries as simulated in twelve CMIP5 models is analysed. The RCP 8.5 high emission scenario runs are used to represent the 21st century. The analysis is based on the wave-breaking methodology of Pelly and Hoskins (2003a). It differs from the Tibaldi and Molteni (1990) index in viewing equatorward cut-off lows and poleward blocking highs in equal manner as indicating a disruption to the westerlies. 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional diagnostics are applied to identify blocking of the mid-latitude storm-track and also at higher latitudes. Winter blocking frequency is found to be generally underestimated. The models give a decrease in the European blocking maximum in the 21st century, consistent with the results in other studies. There is a mean 21st century winter poleward shift of high- latitude blocking, but little agreement between the models on the details. In summer, Eurasian blocking is also underestimated in the models, whereas it is now too large over the high-latitude ocean basins. A decrease in European blocking frequency in the 21st century model runs is again found. However in summer there is a clear eastward shift of blocking over Eastern Europe and Western Russia, in a region close to the blocking that dominated the Russian summer of 2010. While summer blocking decreases in general, the poleward shift of the storm track into the region of frequent high latitude blocking may mean that the incidence of storms being obstructed by blocks may actually increase.

Multi-agent based modeling and simulation of complex system in hospital

This study puts forward a method to model and simulate the complex system of hospital on the basis of multi-agent technology. The formation of the agents of hospitals with intelligent and coordinative characteristics was designed, the message object was defined, and the model operating mechanism of autonomous activities and coordination mechanism was also designed. In addition, the Ontology library and Norm library etc. were introduced using semiotic method and theory, to enlarge the method of system modelling. Swarm was used to develop the multi-agent based simulation system, which is favorable for making guidelines for hospital's improving it's organization and management, optimizing the working procedure, improving the quality of medical care as well as reducing medical charge costs.

A semiotic approach of multi-agent simulation for policy evaluation

Nowadays the changing environment becomes the main challenge for most of organizations, since they have to evaluate proper policies to adapt to the environment. In this paper, we propose a multi-agent simulation method to evaluate policies based on complex adaptive system theory. Furthermore, we propose a semiotic EDA (Epistemic, Deontic, Axiological) agent model to simulate agent's behavior in the system by incorporating the social norms reflecting the policy. A case study is also provided to validate our approach. Our research present better adaptability and validity than the qualitative analysis and experiment approach and the semiotic agent model provides high creditability to simulate agents' behavior.