Probabilistic age classification with Bayesian networks: a study on the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis

In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.

Mir-21-Sox2 Axis Delineates Glioblastoma Subtypes with Prognostic Impact.

UNLABELLED: Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most aggressive human brain tumor. Although several molecular subtypes of GBM are recognized, a robust molecular prognostic marker has yet to be identified. Here, we report that the stemness regulator Sox2 is a new, clinically important target of microRNA-21 (miR-21) in GBM, with implications for prognosis. Using the MiR-21-Sox2 regulatory axis, approximately half of all GBM tumors present in the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and in-house patient databases can be mathematically classified into high miR-21/low Sox2 (Class A) or low miR-21/high Sox2 (Class B) subtypes. This classification reflects phenotypically and molecularly distinct characteristics and is not captured by existing classifications. Supporting the distinct nature of the subtypes, gene set enrichment analysis of the TCGA dataset predicted that Class A and Class B tumors were significantly involved in immune/inflammatory response and in chromosome organization and nervous system development, respectively. Patients with Class B tumors had longer overall survival than those with Class A tumors. Analysis of both databases indicated that the Class A/Class B classification is a better predictor of patient survival than currently used parameters. Further, manipulation of MiR-21-Sox2 levels in orthotopic mouse models supported the longer survival of the Class B subtype. The MiR-21-Sox2 association was also found in mouse neural stem cells and in the mouse brain at different developmental stages, suggesting a role in normal development. Therefore, this mechanism-based classification suggests the presence of two distinct populations of GBM patients with distinguishable phenotypic characteristics and clinical outcomes. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Molecular profiling-based classification of glioblastoma (GBM) into four subtypes has substantially increased our understanding of the biology of the disease and has pointed to the heterogeneous nature of GBM. However, this classification is not mechanism based and its prognostic value is limited. Here, we identify a new mechanism in GBM (the miR-21-Sox2 axis) that can classify ∼50% of patients into two subtypes with distinct molecular, radiological, and pathological characteristics. Importantly, this classification can predict patient survival better than the currently used parameters. Further, analysis of the miR-21-Sox2 relationship in mouse neural stem cells and in the mouse brain at different developmental stages indicates that miR-21 and Sox2 are predominantly expressed in mutually exclusive patterns, suggesting a role in normal neural development.

Classification supervisée multi-étiquette en actes de dialogue: analyse discriminante et transformations de Schoenberg

Abstract This work studies the multi-label classification of turns in simple English Wikipedia talk pages into dialog acts. The treated dataset was created and multi-labeled by (Ferschke et al., 2012). The first part analyses dependences between labels, in order to examine the annotation coherence and to determine a classification method. Then, a multi-label classification is computed, after transforming the problem into binary relevance. Regarding features, whereas (Ferschke et al., 2012) use features such as uni-, bi-, and trigrams, time distance between turns or the indentation level of the turn, other features are considered here: lemmas, part-of-speech tags and the meaning of verbs (according to WordNet). The dataset authors applied approaches such as Naive Bayes or Support Vector Machines. The present paper proposes, as an alternative, to use Schoenberg transformations which, following the example of kernel methods, transform original Euclidean distances into other Euclidean distances, in a space of high dimensionality. Résumé Ce travail étudie la classification supervisée multi-étiquette en actes de dialogue des tours de parole des contributeurs aux pages de discussion de Simple English Wikipedia (Wikipédia en anglais simple). Le jeu de données considéré a été créé et multi-étiqueté par (Ferschke et al., 2012). Une première partie analyse les relations entre les étiquettes pour examiner la cohérence des annotations et pour déterminer une méthode de classification. Ensuite, une classification supervisée multi-étiquette est effectuée, après recodage binaire des étiquettes. Concernant les variables, alors que (Ferschke et al., 2012) utilisent des caractéristiques telles que les uni-, bi- et trigrammes, le temps entre les tours de parole ou l'indentation d'un tour de parole, d'autres descripteurs sont considérés ici : les lemmes, les catégories morphosyntaxiques et le sens des verbes (selon WordNet). Les auteurs du jeu de données ont employé des approches telles que le Naive Bayes ou les Séparateurs à Vastes Marges (SVM) pour la classification. Cet article propose, de façon alternative, d'utiliser et d'étendre l'analyse discriminante linéaire aux transformations de Schoenberg qui, à l'instar des méthodes à noyau, transforment les distances euclidiennes originales en d'autres distances euclidiennes, dans un espace de haute dimensionnalité.

Long term trends in prevalence of neural tube defects in Europe: population based study.

STUDY QUESTION: What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy for mandatory folic acid fortification of food does not exist? METHODS: This was a population based, observational study using data on 11 353 cases of NTD not associated with chromosomal anomalies, including 4162 cases of anencephaly and 5776 cases of spina bifida from 28 EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) registries covering approximately 12.5 million births in 19 countries between 1991 and 2011. The main outcome measures were total and live birth prevalence of NTD, as well as anencephaly and spina bifida, with time trends analysed using random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneities across registries and splines to model non-linear time trends. SUMMARY ANSWER AND LIMITATIONS: Overall, the pooled total prevalence of NTD during the study period was 9.1 per 10 000 births. Prevalence of NTD fluctuated slightly but without an obvious downward trend, with the final estimate of the pooled total prevalence of NTD in 2011 similar to that in 1991. Estimates from Poisson models that took registry heterogeneities into account showed an annual increase of 4% (prevalence ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.07) in 1995-99 and a decrease of 3% per year in 1999-2003 (0.97, 0.95 to 0.99), with stable rates thereafter. The trend patterns for anencephaly and spina bifida were similar, but neither anomaly decreased substantially over time. The live birth prevalence of NTD generally decreased, especially for anencephaly. Registration problems or other data artefacts cannot be excluded as a partial explanation of the observed trends (or lack thereof) in the prevalence of NTD. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: In the absence of mandatory fortification, the prevalence of NTD has not decreased in Europe despite longstanding recommendations aimed at promoting peri-conceptional folic acid supplementation and existence of voluntary folic acid fortification. FUNDING, COMPETING INTERESTS, DATA SHARING: The study was funded by the European Public Health Commission, EUROCAT Joint Action 2011-2013. HD and ML received support from the European Commission DG Sanco during the conduct of this study. No additional data available.

Classification models for neurocognitive impairment in HIV infection based on demographic and clinical variables

Objective: We used demographic and clinical data to design practical classification models for prediction of neurocognitive impairment (NCI) in people with HIV infection. Methods: The study population comprised 331 HIV-infected patients with available demographic, clinical, and neurocognitive data collected using a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological tests. Classification and regression trees (CART) were developed to btain detailed and reliable models to predict NCI. Following a practical clinical approach, NCI was considered the main variable for study outcomes, and analyses were performed separately in treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients. Results: The study sample comprised 52 treatment-naïve and 279 experienced patients. In the first group, the variables identified as better predictors of NCI were CD4 cell count and age (correct classification [CC]: 79.6%, 3 final nodes). In treatment-experienced patients, the variables most closely related to NCI were years of education, nadir CD4 cell count, central nervous system penetration-effectiveness score, age, employment status, and confounding comorbidities (CC: 82.1%, 7 final nodes). In patients with an undetectable viral load and no comorbidities, we obtained a fairly accurate model in which the main variables were nadir CD4 cell count, current CD4 cell count, time on current treatment, and past highest viral load (CC: 88%, 6 final nodes). Conclusion: Practical classification models to predict NCI in HIV infection can be obtained using demographic and clinical variables. An approach based on CART analyses may facilitate screening for HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders and complement clinical information about risk and protective factors for NCI in HIV-infected patients.

Neural synchrony indexes impaired motor slowing after errors and novelty following white matter damage.

In humans, action errors and perceptual novelty elicit activity in a shared frontostriatal brain network, allowing them to adapt their ongoing behavior to such unexpected action outcomes. Healthy and pathologic aging reduces the integrity of white matter pathways that connect individual hubs of such networks and can impair the associated cognitive functions. Here, we investigated whether structural disconnection within this network because of small-vessel disease impairs the neural processes that subserve motor slowing after errors and novelty (post-error slowing, PES; post-novel slowing, PNS). Participants with intact frontostriatal circuitry showed increased right-lateralized beta-band (12-24 Hz) synchrony between frontocentral and frontolateral electrode sites in the electroencephalogram after errors and novelty, indexing increased neural communication. Importantly, this synchrony correlated with PES and PNS across participants. Furthermore, such synchrony was reduced in participants with frontostriatal white matter damage, in line with reduced PES and PNS. The results demonstrate that behavioral change after errors and novelty result from coordinated neural activity across a frontostriatal brain network and that such cognitive control is impaired by reduced white matter integrity.

The Vitamin A Derivative All-Trans Retinoic Acid Repairs Amyloid-β-Induced Double-Strand Breaks in Neural Cells and in the Murine Neocortex.

The amyloid-β peptide or Aβ is the key player in the amyloid-cascade hypothesis of Alzheimer's disease. Aβ appears to trigger cell death but also production of double-strand breaks (DSBs) in aging and Alzheimer's disease. All-trans retinoic acid (RA), a derivative of vitamin A, was already known for its neuroprotective effects against the amyloid cascade. It diminishes, for instance, the production of Aβ peptides and their oligomerisation. In the present work we investigated the possible implication of RA receptor (RAR) in repair of Aβ-induced DSBs. We demonstrated that RA, as well as RAR agonist Am80, but not AGN 193109 antagonist, repair Aβ-induced DSBs in SH-SY5Y cells and an astrocytic cell line as well as in the murine cortical tissue of young and aged mice. The nonhomologous end joining pathway and the Ataxia Telangiectasia Mutated kinase were shown to be involved in RA-mediated DSBs repair in the SH-SY5Y cells. Our data suggest that RA, besides increasing cell viability in the cortex of young and even of aged mice, might also result in targeted DNA repair of genes important for cell or synaptic maintenance. This phenomenon would remain functional up to a point when Aβ increase and RA decrease probably lead to a pathological state.

Generalization transitions in Hidden-Layer neural networks for third-order feature discrimination

Stochastic learning processes for a specific feature detector are studied. This technique is applied to nonsmooth multilayer neural networks requested to perform a discrimination task of order 3 based on the ssT-block¿ssC-block problem. Our system proves to be capable of achieving perfect generalization, after presenting finite numbers of examples, by undergoing a phase transition. The corresponding annealed theory, which involves the Ising model under external field, shows good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations.

Performance of diagnostic centers in the classification of opportunistic screening mammograms from the Brazilian public health system (SUS)

Objective To evaluate the performance of diagnostic centers in the classification of mammography reports from an opportunistic screening undertaken by the Brazilian public health system (SUS) in the municipality of Goiânia, GO, Brazil in 2010. Materials and Methods The present ecological study analyzed data reported to the Sistema de Informação do Controle do Câncer de Mama (SISMAMA) (Breast Cancer Management Information System) by diagnostic centers involved in the mammographic screening developed by the SUS. Based on the frequency of mammograms per BI-RADS® category and on the limits established for the present study, the authors have calculated the rate of conformity for each diagnostic center. Diagnostic centers with equal rates of conformity were considered as having equal performance. Results Fifteen diagnostic centers performed mammographic studies for SUS and reported 31,198 screening mammograms. The performance of the diagnostic centers concerning BI-RADS classification has demonstrated that none of them was in conformity for all categories, one center presented conformity in five categories, two centers, in four categories, three centers, in three categories, two centers, in two categories, four centers, in one category, and three centers with no conformity. Conclusion The results of the present study demonstrate unevenness in the diagnostic centers performance in the classification of mammograms reported to SISMAMA from the opportunistic screening undertaken by SUS.

Le projet RDoC : la classification psychiatrique de demain ?

Nous présentons dans cet article l'histoire, les grands principes méthodologiques ainsi que la réception scientifique et médiatique du projet Research domain criteria (RDoC) lancé en 2009 aux États-Unis par le National institute of mental health (NIMH). Le projet RDoC, dévolu à la recherche, s'oppose au Manuel diagnostique et statistique des troubles mentaux (DSM) en mettant l'accent sur les dimensions du fonctionnement normal du cerveau, au croisement des recherches génétiques, des neurosciences cognitives et des sciences comportementales. Ce projet représente un pari sur le futur et son succès est tributaire de l'adhésion des chercheurs américains au nouveau cadre de référence qu'il propose, cadre qui reste encore largement à construire.

Classification of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease based on chest radiography

Objective Quantitative analysis of chest radiographs of patients with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) determining if the data obtained from such radiographic images could classify such individuals according to the presence or absence of disease. Materials and Methods For such a purpose, three groups of chest radiographic images were utilized, namely: group 1, including 25 individuals with COPD; group 2, including 27 individuals without COPD; and group 3 (utilized for the reclassification /validation of the analysis), including 15 individuals with COPD. The COPD classification was based on spirometry. The variables normalized by retrosternal height were the following: pulmonary width (LARGP); levels of right (ALBDIR) and left (ALBESQ) diaphragmatic eventration; costophrenic angle (ANGCF); and right (DISDIR) and left (DISESQ) intercostal distances. Results As the radiographic images of patients with and without COPD were compared, statistically significant differences were observed between the two groups on the variables related to the diaphragm. In the COPD reclassification the following variables presented the highest indices of correct classification: ANGCF (80%), ALBDIR (73.3%), ALBESQ (86.7%). Conclusion The radiographic assessment of the chest demonstrated that the variables related to the diaphragm allow a better differentiation between individuals with and without COPD.

Enhanced capture of healthcare-related harms and injuries in the 11th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11).

The World Health Organization (WHO) plans to submit the 11th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) to the World Health Assembly in 2018. The WHO is working toward a revised classification system that has an enhanced ability to capture health concepts in a manner that reflects current scientific evidence and that is compatible with contemporary information systems. In this paper, we present recommendations made to the WHO by the ICD revision's Quality and Safety Topic Advisory Group (Q&S TAG) for a new conceptual approach to capturing healthcare-related harms and injuries in ICD-coded data. The Q&S TAG has grouped causes of healthcare-related harm and injuries into four categories that relate to the source of the event: (a) medications and substances, (b) procedures, (c) devices and (d) other aspects of care. Under the proposed multiple coding approach, one of these sources of harm must be coded as part of a cluster of three codes to depict, respectively, a healthcare activity as a 'source' of harm, a 'mode or mechanism' of harm and a consequence of the event summarized by these codes (i.e. injury or harm). Use of this framework depends on the implementation of a new and potentially powerful code-clustering mechanism in ICD-11. This new framework for coding healthcare-related harm has great potential to improve the clinical detail of adverse event descriptions, and the overall quality of coded health data.