Complications of misoprostol and other abortion induction methods in the developing world: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review published literature to examine the complications associated with the use of misoprostol and compare these complications to those associated with other forms of abortion induction. ^ DATA SOURCES: Studies were identified through searches of medical literature databases including Medline (Ovid), PubMed (NLM), LILACS, sciELO, and AIM (AFRO), and review of references of relevant articles. ^ STUDY SELECTION AND METHODS: A descriptive systematic review that included studies reported in English and published before December 2012. Eligibility criteria included: misoprostol (with or without other methods) and any other method of abortion in a developing country, as well as quantitative data on the complication of each method. The following is information extracted from each study: author/year, country/city, study design/study sample, age range, setting of data collection, sample size, the method of abortion induction, the number of cases for each method, and the percentage of complications with each method. RESULTS: A total of 4 studies were identified (all in Latin America) describing post-abortion complications of misoprostol and other methods in countries where abortion is generally considered unsafe and/or illegal. The four studies reported on a range of complications including: bleeding, infection, incomplete abortion, intense pelvic pain, uterine perforation, headache, diarrhea, nausea, mechanical lesions, and systemic collapse. The most prevalent complications of misoprostol-induced abortion reported were: bleeding (7-82%), incomplete abortion (33-70%), and infection (0.8-67%). The prevalence of these complications reported from other abortion methods include: bleeding (16-25%), incomplete abortion (15-82%), and infection (13-50%). ^ CONCLUSION: The literature identified by this systematic review is inadequate for determining the complications of misoprostol used in unsafe settings. Abortion is considered an illicit behavior in these countries, therefore making it difficult to investigate the details needed to conduct a study on abortion complications. Given the differences between the reviewed studies as well as a variety of study limitations, it is not possible to draw firm conclusions about the rates of specific-abortion related complications.^

The association of nonfatal occupational injuries with non -work -related morbidity

A case-referent study of occupational injuries sustained by 474 workers employed in the heavy equipment machinery industry over a two year period, 1985-1986, was undertaken to examine the association of occupational injuries with non-work-related morbidity. Its specific aim was to evaluate whether employees who experienced a work-related injury had an increased prevalence of non-work-related morbidity, specifically for injuries, cardiovascular disease, mental disorders, all other disease outcomes and total morbidity, compared to employees who did not experience a work-related injury. In order to determine the direction of the relationship, the use of the previous calendar year was employed to assess non-work-related morbidity. A secondary objective of the study was the evaluation of the utility of two existing data sources, workers' compensation and group health insurance claims, and the feasibility of conducting studies based on these data.^ The association of non-work-related non-back injuries and subsequent occupational injury was statistically significant (OR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.02-1.67) for all WC claims. The strength of the association was supported by the elevated odds ratio for non-work-related injuries when severity of occupational injury was assessed by WC claim costs of $100 and greater (OR = 1.47, 1.09--1.97), and by lost workdays (OR = 1.37). Factors that predispose an individual to a non-back injury, such as personal attributes and lifestyle characteristics, also influence that individual's risk of subsequent occupational injury. These factors may be reflected in an employee's reaction to life stressors which influence susceptibility to injury. The role of employee assistance programs as a component of injury prevention strategies is suggested.^ An increased but nonsignificant prevalence of non-work-related injuries, cardiovascular disease, mental disorders, and other morbidity conditions was noted among cases. These findings do not provide support of a causal factor in the etiology of occupational injuries. In contrast to non-back injuries, these conditions are chronic in nature and their influence on risk of occupational injuries uncertain.^ In general, cases tended to file more group health insurance claims for other morbidity than did referents. The association with increased total morbidity was consistent whether worker compensation claims were analyzed by total number of claims, claims with costs of $100 and greater, or by lost workdays. Whether persons who sustained an occupational injury were in fact in poor general health than referents, warrant further investigation. ^

Determinación de la precisión de DEMs generados con puntos digitalizados a partir de cartografía existente : relación con el algoritmo utilizado

La información básica sobre el relieve de cuencas hidrográficas, mediante metodologías analítico-descriptivas permite contar con los parámetros físicos necesarios para el estudio de los recursos naturales tales como manejo integrado de cuencas, impacto ambiental, degradación de suelos, deforestación, conservación de los recursos hídricos, entre otros. Todos estos procesos ligados a una fuerte componente espacial permiten el uso de sistemas de información geográfica. Los Modelos Digitales de Elevación (DEM) y sus derivados son un componente relevante de estas fuentes de datos. En este trabajo se planteó evaluar los DEMs, generados por captura indirecta de datos fuente, (puntos digitalizados sobre un plano, en formato papel, con curvas de nivel) para determinar si su calidad altimétrica varía con la resolución espacial del mismo (tamaño de grilla). Asimismo se evaluó la posible existencia de alguna interacción entre el software utilizado y los tamaños de grilla, que podría influir sobre la calidad altimétrica del DEM. Se concluyó que la resolución espacial afecta la calidad altimétrica del DEM. Se constató, asimismo, que es posible encontrar un tamaño de grilla ideal en cuanto a calidad altimétrica y peso informático del modelo digital de elevaciones generado. Respecto de la existencia de una interacción entre el tamaño de grilla y el software, que pudieran afectar la calidad de los modelos obtenidos en función de la metodología de adquisición de datos fuente, se demostró que existe esta posibilidad cuando la base de datos se genera a partir de puntos digitalizados.

ETOPO1 Global Relief Model converted to PanMap layer format

ETOPO1 is a 1 arc-minute global relief model of Earth's surface that integrates land topography and ocean bathymetry. It was built from numerous global and regional data sets. Data were converted to the PanMap layer format in 14 contour lines from 500 to 7000 meter in steps of 500 m. The link provides a zip-archive (1.1 MB) with *.lay files. The PanMap Mini-GIS software is published at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.104840.

De siderúrgica a turística : Breve historia ocupacional de la ciudad de Palpalá (Jujuy-Argentina)

The growth of Palpalá City (Province of Jujuy, argentina) since the 1940s, is linked to altos Hornos Zapla (ahz) the state-owned steel and iron company whose privatization in the early 1990s as part of the external three-sided opening, privatizations and deregulation which characterized convertibility, meant large changes in the local economic structure. In the 1950s, this city was identified by the town hall as 'mother of Industries' ('madre de Industrias'), whereas today, the municipal slogan is 'City of Tourism' ('Ciudad Turística'). Recovering the recent occupational history of this city meets the need to know the labor and socioeconomic reality of this urban area in the Province of Jujuy, about which information is rare. Although it is included in the Home Survey?s sample, it is shown in blocks, making the information very limited. It is paradigmaticin this city to study the means chosen to try to overcome the traumatic shock that ahz's privatization meant, to analyze the policies developed and evaluate their results, some years after their application. In Palpalá, a local development strategy was applied, with a strong impulse to micro-businesses, following, somehow, the model postulated at national level, what will allow us to know the local reality better, as well as the regional and national realities for its characteristics. The methodology used in this work ('From iron and steel industry to tourist city. Brief occupational history of Palpala city) was the bibliographic research of the rare existing studies, interviews to qualified informers as well as the use of secondary data sources, such as data from different national Censuses. To conclude, it can be said that due to the crisis of the 1990s and its state reducing plan, those who suffered its consequences less are, paradoxically, those who are still related to state jobs. In Palpalá, when ahz was privatized and the buyer company failed to fulfill its contract duly, leaving a great number of the local people unemployed, it was the municipal government who had to assume the responsibility of an answer ( in this case, through training, credit and/or counseling to micro-businessmen) In the last years, however, the possibility to work in informal activities has become important in Palpalá, with a high percentage of people working in city fairs selling different kinds of goods. although the change in the model in the recent years has allowed the reactivation in different areas, a preliminary evaluation is that the improvement does not seem to have reached the core of excluded and marginalized of the previous decade

De siderúrgica a turística : Breve historia ocupacional de la ciudad de Palpalá (Jujuy-Argentina)

The growth of Palpalá City (Province of Jujuy, argentina) since the 1940s, is linked to altos Hornos Zapla (ahz) the state-owned steel and iron company whose privatization in the early 1990s as part of the external three-sided opening, privatizations and deregulation which characterized convertibility, meant large changes in the local economic structure. In the 1950s, this city was identified by the town hall as 'mother of Industries' ('madre de Industrias'), whereas today, the municipal slogan is 'City of Tourism' ('Ciudad Turística'). Recovering the recent occupational history of this city meets the need to know the labor and socioeconomic reality of this urban area in the Province of Jujuy, about which information is rare. Although it is included in the Home Survey?s sample, it is shown in blocks, making the information very limited. It is paradigmaticin this city to study the means chosen to try to overcome the traumatic shock that ahz's privatization meant, to analyze the policies developed and evaluate their results, some years after their application. In Palpalá, a local development strategy was applied, with a strong impulse to micro-businesses, following, somehow, the model postulated at national level, what will allow us to know the local reality better, as well as the regional and national realities for its characteristics. The methodology used in this work ('From iron and steel industry to tourist city. Brief occupational history of Palpala city) was the bibliographic research of the rare existing studies, interviews to qualified informers as well as the use of secondary data sources, such as data from different national Censuses. To conclude, it can be said that due to the crisis of the 1990s and its state reducing plan, those who suffered its consequences less are, paradoxically, those who are still related to state jobs. In Palpalá, when ahz was privatized and the buyer company failed to fulfill its contract duly, leaving a great number of the local people unemployed, it was the municipal government who had to assume the responsibility of an answer ( in this case, through training, credit and/or counseling to micro-businessmen) In the last years, however, the possibility to work in informal activities has become important in Palpalá, with a high percentage of people working in city fairs selling different kinds of goods. although the change in the model in the recent years has allowed the reactivation in different areas, a preliminary evaluation is that the improvement does not seem to have reached the core of excluded and marginalized of the previous decade

De siderúrgica a turística : Breve historia ocupacional de la ciudad de Palpalá (Jujuy-Argentina)

The growth of Palpalá City (Province of Jujuy, argentina) since the 1940s, is linked to altos Hornos Zapla (ahz) the state-owned steel and iron company whose privatization in the early 1990s as part of the external three-sided opening, privatizations and deregulation which characterized convertibility, meant large changes in the local economic structure. In the 1950s, this city was identified by the town hall as 'mother of Industries' ('madre de Industrias'), whereas today, the municipal slogan is 'City of Tourism' ('Ciudad Turística'). Recovering the recent occupational history of this city meets the need to know the labor and socioeconomic reality of this urban area in the Province of Jujuy, about which information is rare. Although it is included in the Home Survey?s sample, it is shown in blocks, making the information very limited. It is paradigmaticin this city to study the means chosen to try to overcome the traumatic shock that ahz's privatization meant, to analyze the policies developed and evaluate their results, some years after their application. In Palpalá, a local development strategy was applied, with a strong impulse to micro-businesses, following, somehow, the model postulated at national level, what will allow us to know the local reality better, as well as the regional and national realities for its characteristics. The methodology used in this work ('From iron and steel industry to tourist city. Brief occupational history of Palpala city) was the bibliographic research of the rare existing studies, interviews to qualified informers as well as the use of secondary data sources, such as data from different national Censuses. To conclude, it can be said that due to the crisis of the 1990s and its state reducing plan, those who suffered its consequences less are, paradoxically, those who are still related to state jobs. In Palpalá, when ahz was privatized and the buyer company failed to fulfill its contract duly, leaving a great number of the local people unemployed, it was the municipal government who had to assume the responsibility of an answer ( in this case, through training, credit and/or counseling to micro-businessmen) In the last years, however, the possibility to work in informal activities has become important in Palpalá, with a high percentage of people working in city fairs selling different kinds of goods. although the change in the model in the recent years has allowed the reactivation in different areas, a preliminary evaluation is that the improvement does not seem to have reached the core of excluded and marginalized of the previous decade

Sr-Nd isotopic analyses of sand-sized sediment from the San Francisco Bay coastal system

A diverse suite of geochemical tracers, including 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotope ratios, the rare earth elements (REEs), and select trace elements were used to determine sand-sized sediment provenance and transport pathways within the San Francisco Bay coastal system. This study complements a large interdisciplinary effort (Barnard et al., 2012) that seeks to better understand recent geomorphic change in a highly urbanized and dynamic estuarine-coastal setting. Sand-sized sediment provenance in this geologically complex system is important to estuarine resource managers and was assessed by examining the geographic distribution of this suite of geochemical tracers from the primary sources (fluvial and rock) throughout the bay, adjacent coast, and beaches. Due to their intrinsic geochemical nature, 143Nd/144Nd isotopic ratios provide the most resolved picture of where sediment in this system is likely sourced and how it moves through this estuarine system into the Pacific Ocean. For example, Nd isotopes confirm that the predominant source of sand-sized sediment to Suisun Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Central Bay is the Sierra Nevada Batholith via the Sacramento River, with lesser contributions from the Napa and San Joaquin Rivers. Isotopic ratios also reveal hot-spots of local sediment accumulation, such as the basalt and chert deposits around the Golden Gate Bridge and the high magnetite deposits of Ocean Beach. Sand-sized sediment that exits San Francisco Bay accumulates on the ebb-tidal delta and is in part conveyed southward by long-shore currents. Broadly, the geochemical tracers reveal a complex story of multiple sediment sources, dynamic intra-bay sediment mixing and reworking, and eventual dilution and transport by energetic marine processes. Combined geochemical results provide information on sediment movement into and through San Francisco Bay and further our understanding of how sustained anthropogenic activities which limit sediment inputs to the system (e.g., dike and dam construction) as well as those which directly remove sediments from within the Bay, such as aggregate mining and dredging, can have long-lasting effects.

Detection histories for eight species of Amazona parrots in Venezuela during the NeoMaps bird surveys in 2010

Documenting changes in distribution is necessary for understanding species' response to environmental changes, but data on species distributions are heterogeneous in accuracy and resolution. Combining different data sources and methodological approaches can fill gaps in knowledge about the dynamic processes driving changes in species-rich, but data-poor regions. We combined recent bird survey data from the Neotropical Biodiversity Mapping Initiative (NeoMaps) with historical distribution records to estimate potential changes in the distribution of eight species of Amazon parrots in Venezuela. Using environmental covariates and presence-only data from museum collections and the literature, we first used maximum likelihood to fit a species distribution model (SDM) estimating a historical maximum probability of occurrence for each species. We then used recent, NeoMaps survey data to build single-season occupancy models (OM) with the same environmental covariates, as well as with time- and effort-dependent detectability, resulting in estimates of the current probability of occurrence. We finally calculated the disagreement between predictions as a matrix of probability of change in the state of occurrence. Our results suggested negative changes for the only restricted, threatened species, Amazona barbadensis, which has been independently confirmed with field studies. Two of the three remaining widespread species that were detected, Amazona amazonica, Amazona ochrocephala, also had a high probability of negative changes in northern Venezuela, but results were not conclusive for Amazona farinosa. The four remaining species were undetected in recent field surveys; three of these were most probably absent from the survey locations (Amazona autumnalis, Amazona mercenaria and Amazona festiva), while a fourth (Amazona dufresniana) requires more intensive targeted sampling to estimate its current status. Our approach is unique in taking full advantage of available, but limited data, and in detecting a high probability of change even for rare and patchily-distributed species. However, it is presently limited to species meeting the strong assumptions required for maximum-likelihood estimation with presence-only data, including very high detectability and representative sampling of its historical distribution.

Pore-water chemistry of ODP Sites 124-767 and 124-768

The combination of multiple sediment sources and varying rates of sediment accumulation in the Celebes and Sulu seas have had significant impact on the processes of diagenesis, mineralization, and pore-fluid flow. Isotopic and mass-balance calculations help elucidate the various reactions taking place in these western Pacific basins, where ash alteration and basalt-seawater interactions are superimposed on the effects of sulfate oxidation of organic carbon and biogenic methane and of dolomitization of biogenic carbonates. Based on the shape of the calcium and magnesium depth profiles, two major reactive zones have been identified. The first is located near the zone of sulfate depletion and is characterized by carbonate recrystallization, dolomitization and ash alteration reactions at both Ocean Drilling Program Sites 767 and 768. The second reactive zone corresponds to the bottom of the sedimentary sequence and is characterized by alteration reactions in the basement (Site 767) and in the pyroclastic deposits beneath the sediment column (Site 768).

Planktic and benthic 14C reservoir ages, calibrated by a suite of 14C plateaus in the glacial-to-deglacial Suigetsu atmospheric 14C record

We here present a compilation of planktic and benthic 14C reservoir ages for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and early deglacial from 11 key sites of global ocean circulation in the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Ocean. The ages were obtained by 14C plateau tuning, a robust technique to derive both an absolute chronology for marine sediment records and a high-resolution record of changing reservoir/ventilation ages (Delta14C values) for surface and deep waters by comparing the suite of planktic 14C plateaus of a sediment record with that of the atmospheric 14C record (Sarnthein et al., 2007, doi:10.1029/173GM13). Results published thus far used as atmospheric 14C reference U/Th-dated corals, the Cariaco planktic record, and speleothems (Fairbanks et al., 2005, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.04.007; Hughen et al., 2006, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.03.014; Beck et al., 2001, doi:10.1023/A:1008175728826). We have now used the varve-counted atmospheric 14C record of Lake Suigetsu terrestrial macrofossils (Ramsey et al., 2012, doi:10.1126/science.1226660) to recalibrate the boundary ages and reservoir ages of the seven published records directly to an atmospheric 14C record. In addition, the results for four new cores and further planktic results for four published records are given. Main conclusions from the new compilation are: (1) The Suigetsu atmospheric 14C record on its varve counted time scale reflects all 14C plateaus, their internal structures and relative length previously identified, but implies a rise in the average 14C plateau age by 200-700 14C yr during LGM and early deglacial times. (2) Based on different 14C ages of coeval atmospheric and planktic 14C plateaus, marine surface water Delta14C may have temporarily dropped to an equivalent of ~0 yr in low-latitude lagoon waters, but reached >2500 14C yr both in stratified subpolar waters and in upwelled waters such as in the South China Sea. These values differ significantly from a widely assumed constant global planktic Delta14C value of 400 yr. (3) Suites of deglacial planktic Delta14C values are closely reproducible in 14C records measured at neighboring core sites. (4) Apparent deep-water 14C ventilation ages (equivalents of benthic Delta14C), deduced from the sum of planktic Delta14C and coeval benthic-planktic 14C differences, vary from 500 up to >5000 yr in LGM and deglacial ocean basins.

Topographic model of Greenland (elevation lines in PanMap and ASCII format)

In this paper, a new high-resolution elevation model of Greenland, including the ice sheet as well as the ice free regions, is presented. It is the first published full coverage model, computed with an average resolution of 2 km and providing an unprecedented degree of detail. The topography is modeled from a wide selection of data sources, including satellite radar altimetry from Geosat and ERS 1, airborne radar altimetry and airborne laser altimetry over the ice sheet, and photogrammetric and manual map scannings in the ice free region. The ice sheet model accuracy is evaluated by omitting airborne laser data from the analysis and treating them as ground truth observations. The mean accuracy of the ice sheet elevations is estimated to be 12-13 m, and it is found that on surfaces of a slope between 0.2° and 0.8°, corresponding to approximately 50% of the ice sheet, the model presents a 40% improvement over models based on satellite altimetry alone. On coastal bedrock, the model is compared with stereo triangulated reference points, and it is found that the model accuracy is of the order of 25-35 m in areas covered by stereo photogrammetry scannings and between 200 and 250 m elsewhere.

Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

Modelización del cálculo de Indicadores Ambientales, a partir de sensores ópticos de alta resolución temporal a bordo de satélite

La presente tesis doctoral tiene por objeto el estudio y análisis de técnicas y modelos de obtención de parámetros biofísicos e indicadores ambientales, de manera automatizada a partir de imágenes procedentes de satélite de alta resolución temporal. En primer lugar se revisan los diferentes programas espaciales de observación del territorio, con especial atención a los que proporcionan dicha resolución. También se han revisado las metodologías y procesos que permiten la obtención de diferentes parámetros cuantitativos y documentos cualitativos, relacionados con diversos aspectos de las cubiertas terrestres, atendiendo a su adaptabilidad a las particularidades de los datos. En segundo lugar se propone un modelo de obtención de parámetros ambientales, que integra información proveniente de sensores espaciales y de otras fuentes auxiliares utilizando, en cierta medida, las metodologías presentadas en apartados anteriores y optimizando algunas de las referidas o proponiendo otras nuevas, de manera que se permita dicha obtención de manera eficiente, a partir de los datos disponibles y de forma sistemática. Tras esta revisión de metodologías y propuesta del modelo, se ha procedido a la realización de experimentos, con la finalidad de comprobar su comportamiento en diferentes casos prácticos, depurar los flujos de datos y procesos, así como establecer las situaciones que pueden afectar a los resultados. De todo ello se deducirá la evaluación del referido modelo. Los sensores considerados en este trabajo han sido MODIS, de alta resolución temporal y Thematic Mapper (TM), de media resolución espacial, por tratarse de instrumentos de referencia en la realización de estudios ambientales. También por la duración de sus correspondientes misiones de registro de datos, lo que permite realizar estudios de evolución temporal de ciertos parámetros biofísicos, durante amplios periodos de tiempo. Así mismo. es de destacar que la continuidad de los correspondientes programas parece estar asegurada. Entre los experimentos realizados, se ha ensayado una metodología para la integración de datos procedentes de ambos sensores. También se ha analizado un método de interpolación temporal que permite obtener imágenes sintéticas con la resolución espacial de TM (30 m) y la temporal de MODIS (1 día), ampliando el rango de aplicación de este último sensor. Asimismo, se han analizado algunos de los factores que afectan a los datos registrados, tal como la geometría de la toma de los mismos y los episodios de precipitación, los cuales alteran los resultados obtenidos. Por otro lado, se ha comprobado la validez del modelo propuesto en el estudio de fenómenos ambientales dinámicos, en concreto la contaminación orgánica de aguas embalsadas. Finalmente, se ha demostrado un buen comportamiento del modelo en todos los casos ensayados, así como su flexibilidad, lo que le permite adaptarse a nuevos orígenes de datos, o nuevas metodologías de cálculo. Abstract This thesis aims to the study and analysis of techniques and models, in order to obtain biophysical parameters and environmental indicators in an automated way, using high temporal resolution satellite data. Firstly we have reviewed the main Earth Observation Programs, paying attention to those that provide high temporal resolution. Also have reviewed the methodologies and process flow diagrams in order to obtain quantitative parameters and qualitative documents, relating to various aspects of land cover, according to their adaptability to the peculiarities of the data. In the next stage, a model which allows obtaining environmental parameters, has been proposed. This structure integrates information from space sensors and ancillary data sources, using the methodologies presented in previous sections that permits the parameters calculation in an efficient and automated way. After this review of methodologies and the proposal of the model, we proceeded to carry out experiments, in order to check the behavior of the structure in real situations. From this, we derive the accuracy of the model. The sensors used in this work have been MODIS, which is a high temporal resolution sensor, and Thematic Mapper (TM), which is a medium spatial resolution instrument. This choice was motivated because they are reference sensors in environmental studies, as well as for the duration of their corresponding missions of data logging, and whose continuity seems assured. Among the experiments, we tested a methodology that allows the integration of data from cited sensors, we discussed a proposal for a temporal interpolation method for obtaining synthetic images with spatial resolution of TM (30 m) and temporal of MODIS (1 day), extending the application range of this one. Furthermore, we have analyzed some of the factors that affect the recorded data, such as the relative position of the satellite with the ground point, and the rainfall events, which alter the obtained results. On the other hand, we have proven the validity of the proposed model in the study of the organic contamination in inland water bodies. Finally, we have demonstrated a good performance of the proposed model in all cases tested, as well as its flexibility and adaptability.

Implicaciones de la accesibilidad configuracional en la movilidad peatonal. El caso de Madrid = The implications of configurational accessibility in pedestrian mobility. The case of Madrid

- Resumen La hipótesis que anima esta tesis doctoral es que algunas de las características del entorno urbano, en particular las que describen la accesibilidad de su red de espacio público, podrían estar relacionadas con la proporción de viajes a pie o reparto modal, que tiene cada zona o barrio de Madrid. Uno de los puntos de partida de dicha hipótesis que el entorno urbano tiene una mayor influencia sobre los viaje a pie que en sobre otros modos de transporte, por ejemplo que en los viajes de bicicleta o en transporte público; y es que parece razonable suponer que estos últimos van a estar más condicionadas por ejemplo por la disponibilidad de vías ciclistas, en el primer caso, o por la existencia de un servicio fiable y de calidad, en el segundo. Otra de las motivaciones del trabajo es que la investigación en este campo de la accesibilidad del espacio público, en concreto la denominada “Space Syntax”, ha probado en repetidas ocasiones la influencia de la red de espacio público en cómo se distribuye la intensidad del tráfico peatonal por la trama urbana, pero no se han encontrado referencias de la influencia de dicho elemento sobre el reparto modal. De acuerdo con la hipótesis y con otros trabajos anteriores se propone una metodología basada en el análisis empírico y cuantitativo. Su objetivo es comprobar si la red de espacio público, independientemente de otras variables como los usos del suelo, incluso de las variables de ajenas entorno no construido, como las socioeconómicas, está o no relacionada estadísticamente con la proporción de peatones viajes en las zonas urbanas. Las técnicas estadísticas se utilizan para comprobar sistemáticamente la asociación de las variables del entorno urbano, denominadas variables independientes, con el porcentaje de viajes a pie, la variable dependiente. En términos generales, la metodología es similar a la usada en otros trabajos en este campo como los de CERVERÓ y KOCKLEMAN (1997), CERVERÓ y DUNCAN (2003), o para los que se utilizan principalmente en la revisión general de TRB (2005) o, más recientemente, en ZEGRAS (2006) o CHATMAN (2009). Otras opciones metodológicas, como los métodos de preferencias declaradas (ver LOUVIERE, HENSHER y SWAIT, 2000) o el análisis basado en agentes (PENN & TURNER, 2004) fueron descartados, debido a una serie de razones, demasiado extensas para ser descritas aquí. El caso de estudio utilizado es la zona metropolitana de Madrid, abarcándola hasta la M-50, es decir en su mayor parte, con un tamaño aproximado de 31x34 Km y una población de 4.132.820 habitantes (aproximadamente el 80% de la población de la región). Las principales fuentes de datos son la Encuesta Domiciliaria de Movilidad de 2004 (EDM04), del Consorcio Regional de Transportes de Madrid que es la última disponible (muestra: > 35.000 familias,> 95.000 personas), y un modelo espacial del área metropolitana, integrando el modelo para calcular los índices de Space Syntax y un Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG). La unidad de análisis, en este caso las unidades espaciales, son las zonas de transporte (con una población media de 7.063 personas) y los barrios (con una población media de 26.466 personas). Las variables del entorno urbano son claramente el centro del estudio. Un total de 20 índices (de 21) se seleccionan de entre los más relevantes encontrados en la revisión de la producción científica en este campo siendo que, al mismo tiempo, fueran accesibles. Nueve de ellos se utilizan para describir las características de los usos del suelo, mientras que otros once se usan para describir la red de espacios públicos. Estos últimos incluyen las variables de accesibilidad configuracional, que son, como se desprende de su título, el centro del estudio propuesto. La accesibilidad configuracional es un tipo especial de accesibilidad que se basa en la configuración de la trama urbana, según esta fue definida por HILLIER (1996), el autor de referencia dentro de esta línea de investigación de Space Syntax. Además se incluyen otras variables de la red de espacio público más habituales en los estudios de movilidad, y que aquí se denominan características geométricas de los elementos de la red, tales como su longitud, tipo de intersección, conectividad, etc. Por último se incluye además una variable socioeconómica, es decir ajena al entorno urbano, para evaluar la influencia de los factores externos, pues son varios los que pueden tener un impacto en la decisión de caminar (edad, género, nivel de estudios, ingresos, tasa de motorización, etc.). La asociación entre las variables se han establecido usando análisis de correlación (bivariante) y modelos de análisis multivariante. Las primeras se calculan entre por pares entre cada una de las 21 variables independientes y la dependiente, el porcentaje de viajes a pie. En cuanto a los segundos, se han realizado tres tipos de estudios: modelo multivariante general lineal, modelo multivariante general curvilíneo y análisis discriminante. Todos ellos son capaces de generar modelos de asociación entre diversas variables, pudiéndose de esta manera evaluar con bastante precisión en qué medida cada modelo reproduce el comportamiento de la variable dependiente, y además, el peso o influencia de cada variable en el modelo respecto a las otras. Los resultados fundamentales del estudio se expresan en dos modelos finales alternativos, que demuestran tener una significativa asociación con el porcentaje de viajes a pie (R2 = 0,6789, p <0,0001), al explicar las dos terceras partes de su variabilidad. En ellos, y en general en todo el estudio realizado, se da una influencia constante de tres índices en particular, que quedan como los principales. Dos de ellos, de acuerdo con muchos de los estudios previos, corresponden a la densidad y la mezcla de usos del suelo. Pero lo más novedoso de los resultados obtenidos es que el tercero es una medida de la accesibilidad de la red de espacio público, algo de lo que no había referencias hasta ahora. Pero, ¿cuál es la definición precisa y el peso relativo de cada uno en el modelo, es decir, en la variable independiente? El de mayor peso en la mayor parte de los análisis realizados es el índice de densidad total (n º residentes + n º puestos de trabajo + n º alumnos / Ha). Es decir, una densidad no sólo de población, sino que incluye algunas de las actividades más importantes que pueden darse una zona para generar movilidad a pie. El segundo que mayor peso adquiere, llegando a ser el primero en alguno de los análisis estadísticos efecturados, es el índice de accesibuilidad configuracional denominado integración de radio 5. Se trata de una medida de la accesibilidad de la zona, de su centralidad, a la escala de, más un menor, un distrito o comarca. En cuanto al tercero, obtiene una importancia bastante menor que los anteriores, y es que representa la mezcla de usos. En concreto es una medida del equilibrio entre los comercios especializados de venta al por menor y el número de residentes (n º de tiendas especializadas en alimentación, bebidas y tabaco / n º de habitantes). Por lo tanto, estos resultados confirman buena parte de los de estudios anteriores, especialmente los relativas a los usos del suelo, pero al mismo tiempo, apuntan a que la red de espacio público podría tener una influir mayor de la comprobada hasta ahora en la proporción de peatones sobre el resto de modos de transportes. Las razones de por qué esto puede ser así, se discuten ampliamente en las conclusiones. Finalmente se puede precisar que dicha conclusión principal se refiere a viajes de una sola etapa (no multimodales) que se dan en los barrios y zonas del área metropolitana de Madrid. Por supuesto, esta conclusión tiene en la actualidad, una validez limitada, ya que es el resultado de un solo caso — Abstract The research hypothesis for this Ph.D. Thesis is that some characteristics of the built environment, particularly those describing the accessibility of the public space network, could be associated with the proportion of pedestrians in all trips (modal split), found in the different parts of a city. The underlying idea is that walking trips are more sensitive to built environment than those by other transport modes, such as for example those by bicycle or by public transport, which could be more conditioned by, e.g. infrastructure availability or service frequency and quality. On the other hand, it has to be noted that the previously research on this field, in particular within Space Syntax’s where this study can be referred, have tested similar hypothesis using pedestrian volumes as the dependent variable, but never against modal split. According to such hypothesis, research methodology is based primarily on empirical quantitative analysis, and it is meant to be able to assess whether public space network, no matter other built environment and non-built environment variables, could have a relationship with the proportion of pedestrian trips in urban areas. Statistical techniques are used to check the association of independent variables with the percentage of walking in all trips, the dependent one. Broadly speaking this methodology is similar to that of previous studies in the field such as CERVERO&KOCKLEMAN (1997), CERVERO & DUNCAN (2003), or to those used mainly in the general review of T.R.B. (2005) or, more recently in ZEGRAS (2006) or CHATMAN (2009). Other methodological options such as stated choice methods (see LOUVIERE, HENSHER & SWAIT, 2000) or agent based analysis (PENN & TURNER, 2004), were discarded, due to a number of reasons, too long to be described here. The case study is not the entire Madrid’s metropolitan area, but almost (4.132.820 inhabitants, about 80% of region´s population). Main data sources are the Regional Mobility Home Based Survey 2004 (EDM04), which is the last available (sample: >35.000 families, > 95.000 individuals), and a spatial model of the metropolitan area, developed using Space Syntax and G.I.S. techniques. The analysis unit, in this case spatial units, are both transport zones (mean population = 7.063) and neighborhoods (mean population = 26.466). The variables of the built environment are clearly the core of the study. A total of 20 (out of 21) are selected from among those found in the literature while, at the same time, being accessible. Nine out of them are used to describe land use characteristics while another eleven describe the network of public spaces. Latter ones include configurational accessibility or Space Syntax variables. This is a particular sort of accessibility related with the concept of configuration, by HILLIER (1996), one of the main authors of Space Syntax, But it also include more customary variables used in mobility research to describe the urban design or spatial structure (here public space network), which here are called geometric characteristics of the such as its length, type of intersection, conectivity, density, etc. Finally a single socioeconomic variable was included in order to assess the influence non built environment factors that also may have an impact on walking (age, income, motorization rate, etc.). The association among variables is worked out using bi-variate correlation analysis and multivariate-analysis. Correlations are calculated among the 21 independent variables and the dependent one, the percentage of walking trips. Then, three types of multi-variate studies are run: general linear, curvilinear and discriminant multi-variate analysis. The latter are fully capable of generating complex association models among several variables, assessing quite precisely to what extent each model reproduces the behavior of the dependent variable, and also the weight or influence of each variable in the model. This study’s results show a consistent influence of three particular indexes in the two final alternative models of the multi-variate study (best, R2=0,6789, p<0,0000). Not surprisingly, two of them correspond to density and mix of land uses. But perhaps more interesting is that the third one is a measure of the accessibility of the public space network, a variable less important in the literature up to now. Additional precisions about them and their relative weight could also be of some interest. The density index is not only about population but includes most important activities in an area (nº residents + nº jobs+ nº students/Ha). The configurational index (radius 5 integration) is a measure of the accessibility of the area, i.e. centrality, at the scale of, more a less, a district. Regarding the mix of land uses index, this one is a measure of the balance between retail, in fact local basic retail, and the number of residents (nº of convenience shops / nº of residents). Referring to their weights, configurational index (radius 5 integration) gets the higher standardized coefficient of the final equation. However, in the final equations, there are a higher number of indexes coming from the density or land use mix categories than from public space network enter. Therefore, these findings seem to support part of the field’s knowledge, especially those concerning land uses, but at the same time they seem to bring in the idea that the configuration of the urban grid could have an influence in the proportion of walkers (as a part of total trips on any transport mode) that do single journey trips in the neighborhoods of Madrid, Spain. Of course this conclusion has, at present, a limited validity since it’s the result of a single case. The reasons of why this can be so, are discussed in the last part of the thesis.