Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a physical activity loyalty scheme for behaviour change maintenance: a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background
Increasing physical activity in the workplace can provide employee physical and mental health benefits, and employer economic benefits through reduced absenteeism and increased productivity. The workplace is an opportune setting to encourage habitual activity. However, there is limited evidence on effective behaviour change interventions that lead to maintained physical activity. This study aims to address this gap and help build the necessary evidence base for effective, and cost-effective, workplace interventions

Methods/design
This cluster randomised control trial will recruit 776 office-based employees from public sector organisations in Belfast and Lisburn city centres, Northern Ireland. Participants will be randomly allocated by cluster to either the Intervention Group or Control Group (waiting list control). The 6-month intervention consists of rewards (retail vouchers, based on similar principles to high street loyalty cards), feedback and other evidence-based behaviour change techniques. Sensors situated in the vicinity of participating workplaces will promote and monitor minutes of physical activity undertaken by participants. Both groups will complete all outcome measures. The primary outcome is steps per day recorded using a pedometer (Yamax Digiwalker CW-701) for 7 consecutive days at baseline, 6, 12 and 18 months. Secondary outcomes include health, mental wellbeing, quality of life, work absenteeism and presenteeism, and use of healthcare resources. Process measures will assess intervention “dose”, website usage, and intervention fidelity. An economic evaluation will be conducted from the National Health Service, employer and retailer perspective using both a cost-utility and cost-effectiveness framework. The inclusion of a discrete choice experiment will further generate values for a cost-benefit analysis. Participant focus groups will explore who the intervention worked for and why, and interviews with retailers will elucidate their views on the sustainability of a public health focused loyalty card scheme.

Discussion
The study is designed to maximise the potential for roll-out in similar settings, by engaging the public sector and business community in designing and delivering the intervention. We have developed a sustainable business model using a ‘points’ based loyalty platform, whereby local businesses ‘sponsor’ the incentive (retail vouchers) in return for increased footfall to their business.

Deletions of CDKN2C in Multiple Myeloma: Biological and Clinical Implications

Purpose: Deletions of chromosome 1 have been described in 7% to 40% of cases of myeloma with inconsistent clinical consequences. CDKN2C at 1p32.3 has been identified in myeloma cell lines as the potential target of the deletion. We tested the clinical impact of 1p deletion and used high-resolution techniques to define the role of CDKN2C in primary patient material.Experimental Design: We analyzed 515 cases of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM), and newly diagnosed multiple myeloma using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) for deletions of CDKN2C. In 78 myeloma cases, we carried out Affymetrix single nucleotide polymorphism mapping and U133 Plus 2.0 expression arrays. In addition, we did mutation, methylation, and Western blotting analysis.Results: By FISH we identified deletion of 1p32.3 (CDKN2C) in 3 of 66 MGUS (4.5%), 4 of 39 SMM (10.3%), and 55 of 369 multiple myeloma cases (15%). We examined the impact of copy number change at CDKN2C on overall survival (OS), and found that the cases with either hemizygous or homozygous deletion of CDKN2C had a worse OS compared with cases that were intact at this region (22 months versus 38 months; P = 0.003). Using gene mapping we identified three homozygous deletions at 1p32.3, containing CDKN2C, all of which lacked expression of CDKN2C. Cases with homozygous deletions of CDKN2C were the most proliferative myelomas, defined by an expression-based proliferation index, consistent with its biological function as a cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor.Conclusions: Our results suggest that deletions of CDKN2C are important in the progression and clinical outcome of myeloma.

Passivity Framework for Modeling, Composing and Mitigating Cyber Attacks

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Global environmental change: local perceptions, understandings, and explanations

Global environmental change (GEC) is an increasingly discussed phenomenon in the scientific literature as evidence of its presence and impacts continues to grow. Yet, while the documentation of GEC is becoming more readily available, local perceptions of GEC— particularly in small-scale societies—and preferences about how to deal with it, are still largely overlooked. Local knowledge and perceptions of GEC are important in that agents make decisions (including on natural resource management) based on individual perceptions. We carried out a systematic literature review that aims to provide an exhaustive state-of-the-art of the degree to and manner in which the study of local perceptions of change are being addressed in GEC research. We reviewed 126 articles found in peer-reviewed journals (between 1998 and 2014) that address local perceptions of GEC. We used three particular lenses of analysis that are known to influence local perceptions, namely (i) cognition, (ii) culture and knowledge, and (iii) possibilities for adaptation.We present our findings on the geographical distribution of the current research, the most common changes reported, perceived drivers and impacts of change, and local explanations and evaluations of change and impacts. Overall, we found the studies to be geographically biased, lacking methodological reporting, mostly theory based with little primary data, and lacking of indepth analysis of the psychological and ontological influences in perception and implications for adaptation. We provide recommendations for future GEC research and propose the development of a “meta-language” around adaptation, perception, and mediation to encourage a greater appreciation and understanding of the diversity around these phenomena across multiple scales, and improved codesign and facilitation of locally relevant adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Integrated science and art education for creative climate change communication

An interdisciplinary field trip to a remote marine lab joined graduate students from fine arts and natural resource science departments to think creatively about the topic of climate change and science communication. We followed a learning cycle framework to allow the students to explore marine ecosystems and participate in scientific lectures, group discussions, and an artist-led project making abstract collages representing climate change processes. Students subsequently worked in small groups to develop environmental communication material for public visitors. We assessed the learning activity and the communication product using pre- and post-field trip participant surveys, focus group discussions, and critiques by art and communication experts of the products. Significant changes in knowledge about climate change occurred in program participants. Incorporating artists and the arts into this activity helped engage multiple senses and emphasized social interaction, as well as providing support to participants to think creatively. The production of art helped to encourage peer learning and normalize the different views among participants in communicating about climate change impacts. Students created effective communication products based on external reviews. Disciplinary differences in cultures, language, and standards challenged participating faculty, yet unanticipated outcomes such as potentially transformative learning and improved teacher evaluations resulted.

Analyse des obstacles et des facilitateurs concernant la participation au travail de personnes présentant un trouble de la personnalité limite : points de vue de différents acteurs clés

Résumé : Problématique : Le trouble de la personnalité limite (TPL) est une condition psychiatrique touchant environ 1 % de la population et 20 % de la clientèle recevant des services en psychiatrie (Gunderson et Links, 2008). L’un des domaines du fonctionnement dans la vie quotidienne le plus touché chez cette population est le travail (Gunderson et al., 2011; Larivière et al., 2010; Zanarini et al., 2012). À notre connaissance, aucune étude n’a décrit de façon approfondie la participation au travail des personnes présentant un TPL. Objectif : L’objectif général de cette étude vise à identifier et à décrire les obstacles, les facilitateurs de même que les solutions possibles de la participation au travail des personnes présentant un TPL selon leur point de vue et celui de leurs intervenants. Méthodologie : Une étude de cas multiples a été utilisée (Yin, 2009). Neuf cas ont été étudiés selon trois contextes socioprofessionnels de la participation au travail : A. Réintégration (personne en invalidité), B. Retour (personne en absence maladie) et C. Maintien au travail. Pour chacun des contextes, trois dyades incluant une personne avec un TPL (âgée de 18 à 55 ans) et son intervenant soutenant la participation au travail ont été interviewées. Résultats: Les résultats qualitatifs (n = 18) ont démontré que la participation au travail des personnes présentant un TPL est influencée par des facteurs individuels (p. ex., la réaction face à la pression et aux relations de travail, la régulation émotionnelle) ainsi que des facteurs liés aux acteurs et procédures des systèmes de l’assurance, organisationnel et de la santé (p. ex., la collaboration et la communication entre les acteurs, l’alliance de travail entre les acteurs et la personne présentant un TPL, les mesures d’accommodement et de soutien naturel dans le milieu de travail). Conclusions et implication clinique : Cette étude met en lumière le défi important et spécifique que représente la participation au travail pour les personnes présentant un TPL. Elle implique des facteurs personnels et environnementaux qui doivent être considérés par tous les acteurs impliqués (les utilisateurs de services, les professionnels de la santé, les assureurs et les employeurs). Les programmes de réadaptation au travail actuels devraient être bonifiés et coordonnés adéquatement avec les thérapies spécialisées afin d’aborder de manière optimale les enjeux liés à la participation au travail des personnes présentant un TPL.

A discrete formalism for reasoning about action and change

This paper presents a discrete formalism for temporal reasoning about actions and change, which enjoys an explicit representation of time and action/event occurrences. The formalism allows the expression of truth values for given fluents over various times including nondecomposable points/moments and decomposable intervals. Two major problems which beset most existing interval-based theories of action and change, i.e., the so-called dividing instant problem and the intermingling problem, are absent from this new formalism. The dividing instant problem is overcome by excluding the concepts of ending points of intervals, and the intermingling problem is bypassed by means of characterising the fundamental time structure as a well-ordered discrete set of non-decomposable times (points and moments), from which decomposable intervals are constructed. A comprehensive characterisation about the relationship between the negation of fluents and the negation of involved sentences is formally provided. The formalism provides a flexible expression of temporal relationships between effects and their causal events, including delayed effects of events which remains a problematic question in most existing theories about action and change.

Athletic groin pain (part 2): a prospective cohort study on the biomechanical evaluation of change of direction identifies three clusters of movement patterns

Background: Athletic groin pain (AGP) is prevalent in sports involving repeated accelerations, decelerations, kicking and change-of-direction movements. Clinical and radiological examinations lack the ability to assess pathomechanics of AGP, but three-dimensional biomechanical movement analysis may be an important innovation. Aim: The primary aim was to describe and analyse movements used by patients with AGP during a maximum effort change-of-direction task. The secondary aim was to determine if specific anatomical diagnoses were related to a distinct movement strategy. Methods: 322 athletes with a current symptom of chronic AGP participated. Structured and standardised clinical assessments and radiological examinations were performed on all participants. Additionally, each participant performed multiple repetitions of a planned maximum effort change-of-direction task during which whole body kinematics were recorded. Kinematic and kinetic data were examined using continuous waveform analysis techniques in combination with a subgroup design that used gap statistic and hierarchical clustering. Results: Three subgroups (clusters) were identified. Kinematic and kinetic measures of the clusters differed strongly in patterns observed in thorax, pelvis, hip, knee and ankle. Cluster 1 (40%) was characterised by increased ankle eversion, external rotation and knee internal rotation and greater knee work. Cluster 2 (15%) was characterised by increased hip flexion, pelvis contralateral drop, thorax tilt and increased hip work. Cluster 3 (45%) was characterised by high ankle dorsiflexion, thorax contralateral drop, ankle work and prolonged ground contact time. No correlation was observed between movement clusters and clinically palpated location of the participant's pain. Conclusions: We identified three distinct movement strategies among athletes with long-standing groin pain during a maximum effort change-of-direction task. These movement strategies were not related to clinical assessment findings but highlighted targets for rehabilitation in response to possible propagative mechanisms. Trial registration number NCT02437942, pre results.

Thermochromic dyes and sunlight activating systems - An alternative means to induce colour change.

The general purpose of this work is to investigate the potential of a mobile phone to capture soil colour images and process them, returning the corresponding Munsell colour coordi- nates from the digital RGB captured images, and also estimate the tristimulus values from the same images. A mobile phone HTC Desire HD, which runs Android 2.2, has been used to take and process images of a Munsell Soil Colour Chart under fixed illumination conditions. To obtain tristimulus values of each sample a Konica Minolta CS2000d spectroradiometer has been used under the same conditions. Penrose’s pseudoinverse method has been used to compute relationship between RGB coordinates from digital images and tristimulus values. Once the model has been computed it was implemented in the mobile phone. Results of this calibration show that more than 90% of the samples used in the calibration (238 chips) were measured by our mobile phone application with accuracy below 2.03 CIELAB units and a mean correlation coefficient equal to 0.9972. In case of Munsell models mean correlation coefficient is equal to 0.9407. This points to the idea that a conventional mobile device can be used to determine the colour of a soil under controlled illumination conditions.

Reviews pages: Extreme weather events caused by climate change

Starting from the relationship between urban planning and mobility management, TeMA has gradually expanded the view of the covered topics, always remaining in the groove of rigorous scientific in-depth analysis. During the last two years a particular attention has been paid on the Smart Cities theme and on the different meanings that come with it. The last section of the journal is formed by the Review Pages. They have different aims: to inform on the problems, trends and evolutionary processes; to investigate on the paths by highlighting the advanced relationships among apparently distant disciplinary fields; to explore the interaction’s areas, experiences and potential applications; to underline interactions, disciplinary developments but also, if present, defeats and setbacks. Inside the journal the Review Pages have the task of stimulating as much as possible the circulation of ideas and the discovery of new points of view. For this reason the section is founded on a series of basic’s references, required for the identification of new and more advanced interactions. These references are the research, the planning acts, the actions and the applications, analysed and investigated both for their ability to give a systematic response to questions concerning the urban and territorial planning, and for their attention to aspects such as the environmental sustainability and the innovation in the practices. For this purpose the Review Pages are formed by five sections (Web Resources; Books; Laws; Urban Practices; News and Events), each of which examines a specific aspect of the broader information storage of interest for TeMA.

Reconciling History and International Law: Territorial and Maritime Claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea

High-ranking Chinese military officials are often quoted in international media as stating that China cannot afford to lose even an inch of Chinese territory, as this territory has been passed down from Chinese ancestors. Such statements are not new in Chinese politics, but recently this narrative has made an important transition. While previously limited to disputes over land borders, such rhetoric is now routinely applied to disputes involving islands and maritime borders. China is increasingly oriented toward its maritime borders and seems unwilling to compromise on delimitation disputes, a transition mirrored by many states across the globe. In a similar vein, scholarship has found that territorial disputes are particularly intractable and volatile when compared with other types of disputes, and a large body of research has grappled with producing systematic knowledge of territorial conflict. Yet in this wide body of literature, an important question has remained largely unanswered - how do states determine which geographical areas will be included in their territorial and maritime claims? In other words, if nations are willing to fight and die for an inch of national territory, how do governments draw the boundaries of the nation? This dissertation uses in-depth case studies of some of the most prominent territorial and maritime disputes in East Asia to argue that domestic political processes play a dominant and previously under-explored role in both shaping claims and determining the nature of territorial and maritime disputes. China and Taiwan are particularly well suited for this type of investigation, as they are separate claimants in multiple disputes, yet they both draw upon the same historical record when establishing and justifying their claims. Leveraging fieldwork in Taiwan, China, and the US, this dissertation includes in-depth case studies of China’s and Taiwan’s respective claims in both the South China Sea and East China Sea disputes. Evidence from this dissertation indicates that officials in both China and Taiwan have struggled with how to reconcile history and international law when establishing their claims, and that this struggle has introduced ambiguity into China's and Taiwan's claims. Amid this process, domestic political dynamics have played a dominant role in shaping the options available and the potential for claims to change in the future. In Taiwan’s democratic system, where national identity is highly contested through party politics, opinions vary along a broad spectrum as to the proper borders of the nation, and there is considerable evidence that Taiwan’s claims may change in the near future. In contrast, within China’s single-party authoritarian political system, where nationalism is source of regime legitimacy, views on the proper interpretation of China’s boundaries do vary, but along a much more narrow range. In the dissertation’s final chapter, additional cases, such as South Korea’s position on Dokdo and Indonesia’s approach to the defense of Natuna are used as points of comparison to further clarify theoretical findings.

Acute phase proteins and biomarkers for health in chickens

Acute phase proteins (APPs) are proteins synthesised predominantly in the liver, whose plasma concentrations increase (positive APP) or decrease (negative APP) as a result of infection, inflammation, trauma and tissue injury. They also change as a result of the introduction of immunogens such as bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS), turpentine and vaccination. While publications on APPs in chickens are numerous, the limited availability of anti-sera and commercial ELISAs has resulted in a lot of information on only a few APPs. Disease is a threat to the poultry industry, as pathogens have the potential to evolve, spread and cause rapid onset of disease that is detrimental to the welfare of birds. Low level, sub-acute disease with non-specific, often undiagnosed causes can greatly affect bird health and growth and impact greatly on productivity and profitability. Developing and validating methods to measure and characterise APPs in chickens will allow these proteins to be used diagnostically for monitoring flock health. Using immune parameters such as APPs that correlate with disease resistance or improvements in production and welfare will allow the use of APPs as selection parameters for breeding to be evaluated. For APPs to be useful parameters on which to evaluate chicken health, information on normal APP concentrations is required. Ceruloplasmin (Cp) and PIT54 concentrations were found to be much lower in healthy birds form commercial production farms than the reported normal values obtained from the literature. These APPs were found to be significantly higher in culled birds from a commercial farm and Cp, PIT54 and ovotransferrin (Ovt) were significantly higher in birds classified as having obvious gait defects. Using quantitative shotgun proteomics to identify the differentially abundant proteins between three pools: highly acute phase (HAP), acute phase (AP) and non-acute phase (NAP), generated data from which a selection of proteins, based on the fold difference between the three pools was made. These proteins were targeted on a individual samples alongside proteins known to be APPs in chickens or other species: serum amyloid A (SAA), C-reactive protein (CRP), Ovt, apolipoprotein A-I (apo-AI), transthyretin (Ttn), haemopexin (Hpx) and PIT54. Together with immunoassay data for SAA, Ovt, alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) and Cp the results of this research reveal that SAA is the only major APP in chickens. Ovotransferrin and AGP behave as moderate APPs while PIT54 and Cp are minor APPs. Haemopexin was not significantly different between the three acute phase groups. Apolipoprotein AI and Ttn were significantly lower in the HAP and AP groups and as such can be classed as negative APPs. In an effort to identify CRP, multiple anti-sera cross reacting with CRP from other species were used and a phosphorylcholine column known to affinity purify CRP were used. Enriched fractions containing low molecular weight proteins, elutions from the affinity column together with HAP, AP and NAP pooled samples were applied to a Q-Exactive Hybrid Quadrupole–Orbitrap mass spectrometer (Thermo Scientific) for Shotgun analysis and CRP was not identified. It would appear that CRP is not present as a plasma protein constitutively or during an APR in chickens and as such is not an APP in this species. Of the proteins targeted as possible novel biomarkers of the APR in chickens mannan binding lectin associated serine protease-2, α-2-HS-glycoprotein (fetuin) and major facilitator superfamily domain-containing protein 10 were reduced in abundance in the HAP group, behaving as negative biomarkers. Myeloid protein and putative ISG(12)2 were positively associated with the acute phase being significantly higher in the HAP and AP groups. The protein cathepsin D was significantly higher in both HAP and AP compared to the NAP indicating that of all the proteins targeted, this appears to have the most potential as a biomarker of the acute phase, as it was significantly increased in the AP as well as the HAP group. To evaluate APPs and investigate biomarkers of intestinal health, a study using re-used poultry litter was undertaken. The introduction of litter at 12 days of age did not significantly increase any APPs measured using immunoassays and quantitative proteomics at 3, 6 and 10 days post introduction. While no APP was found to be significantly different between the challenged and control groups at anytime point, the APPs AGP, SAA and Hpx did increase over time in all birds. The protein apolipoprotein AIV (apo-AIV) was targeted as a possible APP and because of its reported role in controlling satiety. An ELISA was developed, successfully validated and used to measure apo-AIV in this study. While no significant differences in apo-AIV plasma concentrations between challenged and control groups were identified apo-AIV plasma concentrations did change significantly between certain time points in challenged and control groups. Apoliporotein AIV does not appear to behave as an APP in chickens, as it was not significantly different between acute phase groups. The actin associated proteins villin and gelsolin were investigated as possible biomarkers of intestinal health. Villin was found not to be present in the plasma of chickens and as such not a biomarker target. Gelsolin was found not to be differentially expressed during the acute phase or as a result of intestinal challenge. Finally a proteomic approach was undertaken to investigate gastrocnemius tendon (GT) rupture in broiler chickens with a view of elucidating to and identify proteins associated with risk of rupture. A number of proteins were found to be differentially expressed between tendon pools and further work would enable further detailing of these findings. In conclusion this work has made a number of novel findings and addressed a number of data poor areas. The area of chicken APPs research has stagnated over the last 15 years with publications becoming repetitive and reliant on a small number of immunoassays. This work has sought to characterise the classic APPs in chickens, and use a quantitative proteomic approach to measure and categorise them. This method was also used to take a fresh approach to biomarker identification for both the APR and intestinal health. The development and validation of assays for Ovt and apo-AIV and the shotgun data mean that these proteins can be further characterised in chickens with a view of applying their measurement to diagnostics and selective breeding programs.

Herbicides cross resistance of a multiple resistant short-awn foxtail ( Alopecurus aequalis Sobol.) population in wheat field

Alopecurus aequalis Sobol. is a common grass weed, which has become increasingly troublesome to control in China wheat fields. One A. aequalis population, collected from Anhui Province China, was suspected to be resistant to fenoxaprop-P-ethyl and mesosulfuron-methyl. This study aimed to establish the cross-resistance pattern using the purified subpopulation and explore the potential targetsite and non-target-site based resistance mechanisms. Sequencing results showed that a single nucleotide change of ATT to AAT was present in acetyl-CoA carboxylase (ACCase) gene of the resistant (R) plants, resulting in an Ile2041Asn amino acid substitution. Besides, another single nucleotide change of CCC to CGC was present in acetolactate synthase (ALS) gene of the R plants, resulting in a Pro197Arg amino acid substitution. The homozygous resistant plants were isolated and the seeds were used in whole-plant herbicide bioassays. Compared with the susceptible (S) population, R population displayed high level resistance to fenoxaprop-P-ethyl and mesosulfuronmethyl. Cross resistance patterns showed that the R population was highly resistant to clodinafop-propargyl, moderately resistant to pyroxsulam and flucarbazoncsodium, lowly resistant to pinoxaden, and susceptible to tralkoxydim, sethoxydim, and isoproturon. The pretreatment of piperonyl butoxide reduced the 50% growth reduction (GR50) value of fenoxaprop-P-ethyl, suggesting that target-site resistance and non-target-site resistance mechanisms were both present in fenoxaprop- P-ethyl-resistance of A. aequalis. This is the first report of ACCase Ile2041Asn and ALS Pro197Arg mutation in A. aequalis.