Estimating risks in declining populations with poor data

Census data on endangered species are often sparse, error-ridden, and confined to only a segment of the population. Estimating trends and extinction risks using this type of data presents numerous difficulties. In particular, the estimate of the variation in year-to-year transitions in population size (the “process error” caused by stochasticity in survivorship and fecundities) is confounded by the addition of high sampling error variation. In addition, the year-to-year variability in the segment of the population that is sampled may be quite different from the population variability that one is trying to estimate. The combined effect of severe sampling error and age- or stage-specific counts leads to severe biases in estimates of population-level parameters. I present an estimation method that circumvents the problem of age- or stage-specific counts and is markedly robust to severe sampling error. This method allows the estimation of environmental variation and population trends for extinction-risk analyses using corrupted census counts—a common type of data for endangered species that has hitherto been relatively unusable for these analyses.

Validation of the Item-Attribute Matrix in TIMSS-Mathematics Using Multiple Regression and the LSDM

The purposes of this study were (1) to validate of the item-attribute matrix using two levels of attributes (Level 1 attributes and Level 2 sub-attributes), and (2) through retrofitting the diagnostic models to the mathematics test of the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), to evaluate the construct validity of TIMSS mathematics assessment by comparing the results of two assessment booklets. Item data were extracted from Booklets 2 and 3 for the 8th grade in TIMSS 2007, which included a total of 49 mathematics items and every student's response to every item. The study developed three categories of attributes at two levels: content, cognitive process (TIMSS or new), and comprehensive cognitive process (or IT) based on the TIMSS assessment framework, cognitive procedures, and item type. At level one, there were 4 content attributes (number, algebra, geometry, and data and chance), 3 TIMSS process attributes (knowing, applying, and reasoning), and 4 new process attributes (identifying, computing, judging, and reasoning). At level two, the level 1 attributes were further divided into 32 sub-attributes. There was only one level of IT attributes (multiple steps/responses, complexity, and constructed-response). Twelve Q-matrices (4 originally specified, 4 random, and 4 revised) were investigated with eleven Q-matrix models (QM1 ~ QM11) using multiple regression and the least squares distance method (LSDM). Comprehensive analyses indicated that the proposed Q-matrices explained most of the variance in item difficulty (i.e., 64% to 81%). The cognitive process attributes contributed to the item difficulties more than the content attributes, and the IT attributes contributed much more than both the content and process attributes. The new retrofitted process attributes explained the items better than the TIMSS process attributes. Results generated from the level 1 attributes and the level 2 attributes were consistent. Most attributes could be used to recover students' performance, but some attributes' probabilities showed unreasonable patterns. The analysis approaches could not demonstrate if the same construct validity was supported across booklets. The proposed attributes and Q-matrices explained the items of Booklet 2 better than the items of Booklet 3. The specified Q-matrices explained the items better than the random Q-matrices.

An Analysis of U.S. Air Force Policy and Installation CO2 Emissions to Determine Best Practices for the Implementation of Executive Order 13514

United States Air Force (USAF) energy policy is a measured but aggressive response to federal energy policy guidance. Previous USAF efforts, like those of the federal government, focused primarily on energy intensity reduction, cost, and BTU savings, and in certain cases have resulted in facility greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The USAF now faces the challenge of integrating GHG reduction goals and inventory requirements set forth in Executive Order 13514. Using USAF reported energy consumption data, facility GHG emission estimates have been synthesized to identify trends and elucidate existing energy best practices to be applied as part of overarching USAF GHG mitigation efforts and to highlight areas of possible concern for the integration of EO 13514 into operational USAF policy.

Shopping malls and neoliberal trends in Southern European cities: Post-metropolitan challenges for urban planning policy

Whilst shopping malls have been explored at length by critical urban studies, there has been little exploration of their role in restructuring the practice of urban and spatial planning. This article uses the shopping mall as an object of study in the light of the neoliberal trends and post-metropolisation in Southern Europe, with the aim of exploring challenges for urban governance and planning practice and with a focus on the role of the ongoing economic crisis. A threefold exploratory framework – the ‘lost-in-time scenario’, the ‘messianic mall model’ and the ‘(im)mature planning explanation’ – is used to make sense of the local versions of shopping mall development in Lisbon (Portugal) and Palermo (Southern Italy). According to findings, we highlight the clash between the multi-scalar nature of shopping malls and the dominance of the municipal scale in regulatory planning frameworks, and the risk that shopping mall development (at least in Southern Europe) may replicate uneven development patterns, reproducing the pre-conditions of the crisis without helping to overcome it.

Logical Modeling and Dynamical Analysis of Cellular Networks

The logical (or logic) formalism is increasingly used to model regulatory and signaling networks. Complementing these applications, several groups contributed various methods and tools to support the definition and analysis of logical models. After an introduction to the logical modeling framework and to several of its variants, we review here a number of recent methodological advances to ease the analysis of large and intricate networks. In particular, we survey approaches to determine model attractors and their reachability properties, to assess the dynamical impact of variations of external signals, and to consistently reduce large models. To illustrate these developments, we further consider several published logical models for two important biological processes, namely the differentiation of T helper cells and the control of mammalian cell cycle.

EPA environmental modeling catalogue /

Mode of access: Internet.

Roadside Safety Library - Library Information Retrieval System (LIRS). Volume 2: programmers' and operators' manual. Final report.

Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center, McLean, Va.

Vocational education in public schools as related to social, economic and technical trends.

Pt. 1.The analysis of trends and concepts.

U.S. energy trends : hearings before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate, One Hundred Seventh Congress, first session.

Shipping list no.: 2001-0290-P (pt.1), 2002-0034-P (pt. 2).

Closed-Loop Deep Brain Stimulation: Bidirectional Neuroprosthetics for Tremor and BCI

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Bariatric surgery in women of child-bearing age, timing between an operation and birth, and associated perinatal complications

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The source of the Great Dyke, Zimbabwe, and its tectonic significance: Evidence from Re-Os isotopes

Re-Os data for chromite separates from 10 massive chromitite seams sampled along the 550-km length of the 2.58-Ga Great Dyke layered igneous complex, Zimbabwe, record initial 187Os/188Os ratios in the relatively narrow range between 0.1106 and 0.1126. This range of initial 187Os/188Os values is only slightly higher than the value for the coeval primitive upper mantle (0.1107) as modeled from the Re-Os evolution of chondrites and data of modern mantle melts and mantle derived xenoliths. Analyses of Archean granitoid and gneiss samples from the Zimbabwe Craton show extremely low Os concentrations (3-9 ppt) with surprisingly unradiogenic present-day 187Os/188Os signatures between 0.167 and 0.297. Only one sample yields an elevated 187Os/188Os ratio of 1.008. Using these data, the range of crustal contamination of the Great Dyke magma would be minimally 0%-33% if the magma source was the primitive upper mantle, whereas the range estimated from Nd and Pb isotope systematics is 5%-25%. If it is assumed that the primary Great Dyke magma derived from an enriched deep mantle reservoir (via a plume), a better agreement can be obtained. A significant contribution from a long-lived subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) reservoir with subchondritic Re/Os to the Great Dyke melts cannot be reconciled with the Os isotope results at all. However, Os isotope data on pre-Great Dyke ultramafic complexes of the Zimbabwe Craton and thermal modeling show that such an SCLM existed below the Zimbabwe Craton at the time of the Great Dyke intrusion. It is therefore concluded that large melt volumes such as that giving rise to the Great Dyke were able to pass lithospheric mantle keels without significant contamination in the late Archean. Because the ultramafic-mafic melts forming the Great Dyke must have originated below the SCLM (which extends to at least a 200-km depth ), the absence of an SCLM signature precludes a subduction-related magma-generation process.

An internet GIS and spatial model to benchmark local government socio-economic performance

This paper develops an Internet geographical information system (GIS) and spatial model application that provides socio-economic information and exploratory spatial data analysis for local government authorities (LGAs) in Queensland, Australia. The application aims to improve the means by which large quantities of data may be analysed, manipulated and displayed in order to highlight trends and patterns as well as provide performance benchmarking that is readily understandable and easily accessible for decision-makers. Measures of attribute similarity and spatial proximity are combined in a clustering model with a spatial autocorrelation index for exploratory spatial data analysis to support the identification of spatial patterns of change. Analysis of socio-economic changes in Queensland is presented. The results demonstrate the usefulness and potential appeal of the Internet GIS applications as a tool to inform the process of regional analysis, planning and policy.

Trends in the use of hospital beds by older people in Australia: 1993-2002

Objective: To determine trends in use of Australian acute hospital inpatient services by older patients. Design and data sources: Secondary analysis of hospital data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare in the period 1993-94 to 2001-02, with population data for this period from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Outcome measures: Population-based rates of hospital separations and bed utilisation. Results: The Australian aged population (65 years and older) increased by 18% compared with total population growth of 10%, yet the proportion of hospital beds occupied by older patients remained stable at 47%. The most substantial changes were observed in the population aged 75 years and older, with separations increasing by 89%, length of stay reducing by 35% and bed utilisation increasing by 23%. However, rates of bed utilisation (in relation to population) declined among older groups (10% decline in per capita use in population 75 years and older), but increased in the younger population (1% increase in per capita use in people younger than 65 years). Conclusion: Important trends in use of inpatient services were identified in this study. These trends are contrary to common perception. Ageing of the Australian population was not associated with an increase in the proportion of hospital beds used by older patients.