Modeling cumulative evidence for freedom from disease with applications to BSE surveillance trials

This investigation deals with the question of when a particular population can be considered to be disease-free. The motivation is the case of BSE where specific birth cohorts may present distinct disease-free subpopulations. The specific objective is to develop a statistical approach suitable for documenting freedom of disease, in particular, freedom from BSE in birth cohorts. The approach is based upon a geometric waiting time distribution for the occurrence of positive surveillance results and formalizes the relationship between design prevalence, cumulative sample size and statistical power. The simple geometric waiting time model is further modified to account for the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity associated with the detection of disease. This is exemplified for BSE using two different models for the diagnostic sensitivity. The model is furthermore modified in such a way that a set of different values for the design prevalence in the surveillance streams can be accommodated (prevalence heterogeneity) and a general expression for the power function is developed. For illustration, numerical results for BSE suggest that currently (data status September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity.

Phyloclimatic modeling: Combining phylogenetics and bioclimatic modeling

We investigate the impact of past climates on plant diversification by tracking the "footprint" of climate change on a phylogenetic tree. Diversity within the cosmopolitan carnivorous plant genus Drosera (Droseraceae) is focused within Mediterranean climate regions. We explore whether this diversity is temporally linked to Mediterranean-type climatic shifts of the mid-Miocene and whether climate preferences are conservative over phylogenetic timescales. Phyloclimatic modeling combines environmental niche (bioclimatic) modeling with phylogenetics in order to study evolutionary patterns in relation to climate change. We present the largest and most complete such example to date using Drosera. The bioclimatic models of extant species demonstrate clear phylogenetic patterns; this is particularly evident for the tuberous sundews from southwestern Australia (subgenus Ergaleium). We employ a method for establishing confidence intervals of node ages on a phylogeny using replicates from a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. This chronogram shows that many clades, including subgenus Ergaleium and section Bryastrum, diversified during the establishment of the Mediterranean-type climate. Ancestral reconstructions of bioclimatic models demonstrate a pattern of preference for this climate type within these groups. Ancestral bioclimatic models are projected into palaeo-climate reconstructions for the time periods indicated by the chronogram. We present two such examples that each generate plausible estimates of ancestral lineage distribution, which are similar to their current distributions. This is the first study to attempt bioclimatic projections on evolutionary time scales. The sundews appear to have diversified in response to local climate development. Some groups are specialized for Mediterranean climates, others show wide-ranging generalism. This demonstrates that Phyloclimatic modeling could be repeated for other plant groups and is fundamental to the understanding of evolutionary responses to climate change.

Linkage disequilibrium assessment via log-linear modeling of SNP haplotype frequencies

Analyses of high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, such as genetic mapping and linkage disequilibrium (LD) studies, require phase-known haplotypes to allow for the correlation between tightly linked loci. However, current SNP genotyping technology cannot determine phase, which must be inferred statistically. In this paper, we present a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for population haplotype frequency estimation, particulary in the context of LD assessment. The novel feature of the method is the incorporation of a log-linear prior model for population haplotype frequencies. We present simulations to suggest that 1) the log-linear prior model is more appropriate than the standard coalescent process in the presence of recombination (>0.02cM between adjacent loci), and 2) there is substantial inflation in measures of LD obtained by a "two-stage" approach to the analysis by treating the "best" haplotype configuration as correct, without regard to uncertainty in the recombination process. Genet Epidemiol 25:106-114, 2003. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A mechanistic study of cyclic siloxane pyrolyses at low pressures

Matrix isolation IR spectroscopy has been used to study the vacuum pyrolysis of hexamethylcyclotrisiloxane (D3), octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4) and decamethyl cyclopentasiloxane (D5), and the results interpreted in the context of various kinetic models. In particular, it is shown that the significant pyrolysis products - which include CH3, CH4, C2H2, C2H4, C2H6 and SiO - may be satisfactorily accounted for by radical reactions involving dimethylsiloxane (D1), and estimates are made of the various chain lengths for the proposed reactions based on a range of ambient conditions.

A mechanistic study of the low pressure pyrolysis of linear siloxanes

Matrix isolation IR spectroscopy has been used to study the vacuum pyrolysis of 1,1,3,3-tetramethyldisiloxane (L1), 1,1,3,3,5,5-hexamethyltrisiloxane (L2) and 3H,5H-octamethyltetrasiloxane (L3) at ca. 1000 K in a flow reactor at low pressures. The hydrocarbons CH3, CH4, C2H2, C2H4, and C2H6 were observed as prominent pyrolysis products in all three systems, and amongst the weaker features are bands arising from the methylsilanes Me2SiH2 (for L1 and L2) and Me3SiH (for L3). The fundamental of SiO was also observed very weakly. By use of quantum chemical calculations combined with earlier kinetic models, mechanisms have been proposed involving the intermediacy of silanones Me2Si = O and MeSiH = O. Model calculations on the decomposition pathways of H3SiOSiH3 and H3SiOSiH2OSiH3 show that silanone elimination is favoured over silylene extrusion.

Direct time-resolved study of the gas-phase reactions of germylene with ethyl- and diethylgermane: absolute rate constants, temperature dependences, and mechanism

Time-resolved studies of germylene, GeH2, generated by the 193 nm laser flash photolysis of 3,4-dimethyl-1-germacyclopent-3-ene, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reactions with ethyl- and diethylgermanes in the gas phase. The reactions were studied over the pressure range 1-100 Torr with SF6 as bath gas and at five temperatures in the range 297-564 K. Only slight pressure dependences were found for GeH2 + EtGeH3 (399, 486, and 564 K). The high pressure rate constants gave the following Arrhenius parameters: for GeH2 + EtGeH3, log A = -10.75 +/- 0.08 and E-a = -6.7 +/- 0.6 kJ mol(-1); for GeH2 + Et2GeH2, log A = -10.68 +/- 0.11 and E-a = -6.95 +/- 0.80 kJ mol(-1). These are consistent with fast, near collision-controlled, association processes at 298 K. RRKM modeling calculations are, for the most part, consistent with the observed pressure dependence of GeH2 + EtGeH3. The ethyl substituent effects have been extracted from these results and are much larger than the analogous methyl substituent effects in the SiH2 + methylsilane reaction series. This is consistent with a mechanistic model for Ge-H insertion in which the intermediate complex has a sizable secondary barrier to rearrangement.

Investigation of the prototype silylene reaction, SiH2+H2O(and D2O): time-resolved gas-phase kinetic studies, isotope effects, RRKM calculations, and quantum chemical calculations of the reaction energy surface

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, with H2O and with D2O have been carried out in the gas phase at 296 and at 339 K, using laser flash photolysis to generate and monitor SiH2. The reaction was studied over the pressure range 10-200 Torr with SF6 as bath gas. The second-order rate constants obtained were pressure dependent, indicating that the reaction is a third-body assisted association process. Rate constants at 339 K were about half those at 296 K. Isotope effects, k(H)/k(D), were small averaging 1.076 0.080, suggesting no involvement of H- (or D-) atom transfer in the rate determining step. RRKM modeling was undertaken based on a transition state appropriate to formation of the expected zwitterionic donoracceptor complex, H2Si...OH2. Because the reaction is close to the low pressure (third order) region, it is difficult to be definitive about the activated complex structure. Various structures were tried, both with and without the incorporation of rotational modes, leading to values for the high-pressure limiting (i.e., true secondorder) rate constant in the range 9.5 x 10(-11) to 5 x 10(-10) cm(3) molecule' s(-1). The RRKM modeling and mechanistic interpretation is supported by ab initio quantum calculations carried out at the G2 and G3 levels. The results are compared and contrasted with the previous studies.

First structural analysis of a naphthalene-based poly(ether ketone): Crystal and molecular simulation from X-ray powder data and diffraction modeling

Polycondensation of 2,6-dihydroxynaphthalene with 4,4'-bis(4"-fluorobenzoyl)biphenyl affords a novel, semicrystalline poly(ether ketone) with a melting point of 406 degreesC and glass transition temperature (onset) of 168 degreesC. Molecular modeling and diffraction-simulation studies of this polymer, coupled with data from the single-crystal structure of an oligomer model, have enabled the crystal and molecular structure of the polymer to be determined from X-ray powder data. This structure-the first for any naphthalene-containing poly(ether ketone)-is fully ordered, in monoclinic space group P2(1)/b, with two chains per unit cell. Rietveld refinement against the experimental powder data gave a final agreement factor (R-wp) of 6.7%.

High-resolution crystal structure of the intramolecular d(TpA) thymine-adenine photoadduct and its mechanistic implications

A high-resolution crystal structure is reported for d(TpA)*, the intramolecular thymine-adenine photoadduct that is produced by direct ultraviolet excitation of the dinucleoside monophosphate d(TpA). It confirms the presence of a central 1,3-diazacyclooctatriene ring linking the remnants of the T and A bases, as previously deduced from heteronuclear NMR measurements by Zhao et al. (The structure of d(TpA)*, the major photoproduct of thymidylyl-(3'-5')-deoxyadenosine. Nucleic Acids Res., 1996, 24, 1554-1560). Within the crystal, the d(TpA)* molecules exist as zwitterions with a protonated amidine fragment of the eight-membered ring neutralizing the charge of the internucleotide phosphate monoanion. The absolute configuration at the original thymine C5 and C6 atoms is determined as 5S,6R. This is consistent with d(TpA)* arising by valence isomerization of a precursor cyclobutane photoproduct with cis-syn stereochemistry that is generated by [2 + 2] photoaddition of the thymine 5,6-double bond across the C6 and C5 positions of adenine. This mode of photoaddition should be favoured by the stacked conformation of adjacent T and A bases in B-form DNA. It is probable that the primary photoreaction is mechanistically analogous to pyrimidine dimerization despite having a much lower quantum yield.

Doped sodium aluminium hydrides as hydrogen storage materials: characterizations and mechanistic insights

The dehydriding and rehydriding of sodium aluminium hydride, NaAlR4, is kinetically enhanced and rendered reversible in the solid state upon doping with a small amount of catalyst species, such as titanium, zirconium or tin. The catalyst doped hydrides appear to be good candidates for development as hydrogen carriers for onboard proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells because of their relatively low operation temperatures (120-150 degrees C) and high hydrogen carrying capacities (4-5 wt.%). However, the nature of the active catalyst species and the mechanism of catalytic action are not yet known. In particular, using combinations of Ti and Sri compounds as dopants, a cooperative catalyst effect of the metals Ti and Sn in enhancing the hydrogen uptake and release kinetics is hereby reported. In this paper, characterization techniques including XRD, XPS, TEM, EDS and SEM have been applied on this material. The results suggest that the solid state phase changes during the hydriding and dehydriding processes are assisted through the interaction of a surface catalyst. A mechanism is proposed to explain the catalytic effect of the Sn/Ti double dopants on this hydride.

Modeling the structure of amorphous MoS3: a neutron diffraction and reverse Monte Carlo study

A model for the structure of amorphous molybdenum trisulfide, a-MoS3, has been created using reverse Monte Carlo methods. This model, which consists of chains Of MoS6 units sharing three sulfurs with each of its two neighbors and forming alternate long, nonbonded, and short, bonded, Mo-Mo separations, is a good fit to the neutron diffraction data and is chemically and physically realistic. The paper identifies the limitations of previous models based on Mo-3 triangular clusters in accounting for the available experimental data.

Ultrasonic chemical oxidative degradations of 1,3-dialkylimidazolium ionic liquids and their mechanistic elucidations

A highly efficient process for oxidative degradation of 1,3-dialkylimidazolium ionic liquids in hydrogen peroxide/acetic acid aqueous medium assisted by ultrasonic chemical irradiation is, for the first time, described. It is shown that more than 93% of the 1,3-dialkylimidazolium cation with the corresponding Cl-, Br-, BF4- and PF6- counter-anions at a concentration of 2.5 mM can be degraded at 50 degrees C within 12 h while at 72 h the conversions approach 99%. A tentative mechanism for the degradation of these ILs is for the first time proposed through a detailed kinetic analysis of several characteristic transients and/or immediate products, which are identified during the ILs degradation using GC-MS. The results clearly indicate that three hydrogen atoms in the imidazolium ring are the first sites preferably oxidized, followed by cleavage of the alkyl groups attached to the N atoms from the ring. The nature of the alkyl chain length on the imidazolium ring and the type of counter anion do not seem to affect the degradation process. Further, selective fragmentations of C-N bonds of the imidazolium or derived ring lead to ring opening, forming degraded intermediates. It is also shown that acetoxyacetic acid and biurea are the final kinetically stable degraded products from the ILs under the degradation conditions.

Top-down systems biology modeling of host metabotype-microbiome associations in obese rodents

Covariation in the structural composition of the gut microbiome and the spectroscopically derived metabolic phenotype (metabotype) of a rodent model for obesity were investigated using a range of multivariate statistical tools. Urine and plasma samples from three strains of 10-week-old male Zucker rats (obese (fa/fa, n = 8), lean (fal-, n = 8) and lean (-/-, n = 8)) were characterized via high-resolution H-1 NMR spectroscopy, and in parallel, the fecal microbial composition was investigated using fluorescence in situ hydridization (FISH) and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) methods. All three Zucker strains had different relative abundances of the dominant members of their intestinal microbiota (FISH), with the novel observation of a Halomonas and a Sphingomonas species being present in the (fa/fa) obese strain on the basis of DGGE data. The two functionally and phenotypically normal Zucker strains (fal- and -/-) were readily distinguished from the (fa/fa) obese rats on the basis of their metabotypes with relatively lower urinary hippurate and creatinine, relatively higher levels of urinary isoleucine, leucine and acetate and higher plasma LDL and VLDL levels typifying the (fa/fa) obese strain. Collectively, these data suggest a conditional host genetic involvement in selection of the microbial species in each host strain, and that both lean and obese animals could have specific metabolic phenotypes that are linked to their individual microbiomes.

Modeling the variability of single-cell lag times for Listeria innocua populations after sublethal and lethal heat treatments

Optical density measurements were used to estimate the effect of heat treatments on the single-cell lag times of Listeria innocua fitted to a shifted gamma distribution. The single-cell lag time was subdivided into repair time ( the shift of the distribution assumed to be uniform for all cells) and adjustment time (varying randomly from cell to cell). After heat treatments in which all of the cells recovered (sublethal), the repair time and the mean and the variance of the single-cell adjustment time increased with the severity of the treatment. When the heat treatments resulted in a loss of viability (lethal), the repair time of the survivors increased with the decimal reduction of the cell numbers independently of the temperature, while the mean and variance of the single-cell adjustment times remained the same irrespective of the heat treatment. Based on these observations and modeling of the effect of time and temperature of the heat treatment, we propose that the severity of a heat treatment can be characterized by the repair time of the cells whether the heat treatment is lethal or not, an extension of the F value concept for sublethal heat treatments. In addition, the repair time could be interpreted as the extent or degree of injury with a multiple-hit lethality model. Another implication of these results is that the distribution of the time for cells to reach unacceptable numbers in food is not affected by the time-temperature combination resulting in a given decimal reduction.

Recovery of astaxanthin using colloidal gas aphrons (CGA): a mechanistic study

The aim of this study is to investigate the mechanism responsible for the recovery of astaxanthin using Colloidal Gas Aphrons (CGA), which are surfactant stabilised microbubbles. The latter were produced using different surfactant solutions (Cetyl Trimethyl Ammonium Bromide (CTAB)-cationic, Sodium Dodecyl Sulfate (SDS)-anionic, TWEEN 60-non-ionic and mixtures of TWEEN 60-SPAN 80- non-ionic with varying hydrophobicity) at stirring speed 8000 rpm and stirring time 5 min. Experiments were carried out at varying pH and volumetric ratios of astaxanthin to CGA, and with two different astaxanthin standard suspensions: (i) astaxanthin dispersed in aqueous solutions and (ii) astaxanthin dispersed in ethanolic/aqueous solutions with different compositions of ethanol (20/80 (v/v) and 40/60 (v/v)). When astaxanthin is dispersed in aqueous solutions the separation seems to occur mainly by electrostatic interactions. Therefore the recoveries are higher in the case of the cationic surfactant when astaxanthin particles are strongly negatively charged, as shown by the zeta potential measurements. When ethanol is present, highest recoveries are achieved with CGA produced from the non-ionic surfactant, which indicates that, under these conditions, separation is driven mainly by hydrophobic interactions. In experiments with ethanolic/aqueous suspensions, when the hydrophobicity of the surfactant was increased by increasing volumes of SPAN 80, the CGA produced were less stable; thus higher recoveries of astaxanthin under conditions that favour hydrophobic interactions were not observed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.