Market access and welfare: Is there a conflict?

Well known tariff reform rules that are guaranteed to increase welfare will not necessarily increase market access, while rules that are guaranteed to increase market access will not necessarily increase welfare. The present paper proposes a new set of tariff reforms that can achieve both objectives at the same time.

Tariff-tax reforms and market access

Reducing tariffs and increasing consumption taxes is a standard IMF advice to countries that want to open up their economy without hurting government finances. Indeed, theoretical analysis of such a tariff–tax reform shows an unambiguous increase in welfare and government revenues. The present paper examines whether the country that implements such a reform ends up opening up its markets to international trade, i.e. whether its market access improves. It is shown that this is not necessarily so. We also show that, comparing to the reform of only tariffs, the tariff–tax reform is a less efficient proposal to follow both as far as it concerns market access and welfare.

Asymptotic analysis of option pricing in a Markov modulated market

We address asymptotic analysis of option pricing in a regime switching market where the risk free interest rate, growth rate and the volatility of the stocks depend on a finite state Markov chain. We study two variations of the chain namely, when the chain is moving very fast compared to the underlying asset price and when it is moving very slow. Using quadratic hedging and asymptotic expansion, we derive corrections on the locally risk minimizing option price.

Long-term outcomes of esophageal atresia

Esophageal atresia (EA), a common congenital anomaly comprising interrupted esophagus with or without a tracheoesophageal fistula (TEF), affects one in 2840 newborns. Over half have associated anomalies. After EA repair in infancy, gastroesophageal reflux (GER) and esophageal dysmotility and respiratory problems are common. As there exist no previous population-based long-term follow-up-studies on EA, its long-term sequelae are unclear. The aims of this study were to assess the cancer incidence (I), esophageal morbidity and function (II), respiratory morbidity (III), and the spinal defects (IV) in adults with repaired EA. All patients treated for EA at the Hospital for Children and Adolescents, University of Helsinki, from 1947 to 1985 were identified, and those alive with their native esophagus were contacted, and the first hundred who replied made up the study group. The patients were interviewed, they filled in symptom questionnaires, and they underwent esophageal endoscopy and manometry, pulmonary function tests, and a full orthopedic evaluation was performed with radiographs of the spine. The questionnaire was also sent by mail to adults with repaired EA not attending the clinical study, and to 287 general population-derived controls matched for age, gender, and municipality of residence. Incidence of cancer among the study population was evaluated from the population-based countrywide cancer registry. 169 (72%) adults with repaired EA replied; 101 (42%) (58 male) participated in the clinical studies at a median age of 36 years (range, 22-56). Symptomatic GER occurred in 34% and dysphagia in 85% of the patients and in 8% and 2% of the controls (P<0.001 for both). The main endoscopic findings included hiatal hernia (28%), Barrett´s esophagus (11%), esophagitis (8%), and stenotic anastomosis (8%). Histology revealed esophagitis in 25 individuals, and epithelial metaplasia in another 21. At immunohistochemistry, CDX2-positive columnar epithelial metaplasia was present in all 21 individuals, and 6 of these also demonstrated goblet cells and MUC2 positivity. In all histological groups, GER and dysphagia were equally common (P=ns). Esophageal manometry demonstrated non-propagating peristalsis in most of the patients, and low ineffective pressure of the distal esophageal body in all. The changes were significantly worse in those with epithelial metaplasia (P≤0.022). Anastomotic complications (OR 8.6-24, 95%CI 1.7-260, P=0.011-0.008), age (OR 20, 95%CI 1.3-310, P=0.034), low distal esophageal body pressure (OR 2.6, 95%CI 0.7-10, P=0.002), and defective esophageal peristalsis (OR 2.2, 95%CI 0.4-11, P=0.014) all predicted development of epithelial metaplasia. Despite the high incidence of esophageal metaplasia, none of the EA patients had suffered esophageal cancer, according to the Finnish Cancer Registry. Although three had had cancer (SIR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.20-2.8). The overall cancer incidence among adults with repaired EA did not differ from that of the general Finnish population. Current respiratory symptoms occurred in 11% of the patients and 2% of the controls (P<0.001). Of the patients, 16%, and 6% of the controls had doctor-diagnosed asthma (P<0.001). A total of 56% and 70% of the patients and 20% and 50% of the controls had a history of pneumonia and of bronchitis (P<0.001 for both). Respiratory-related impaired quality of life was observable in 11% of the patients in contrast to 6% of the controls (P<0.001). PFT revealed obstruction in 21 of the patients, restriction in 21, and both in 36. A total of 41 had bronchial hyper-responsiveness (BHR) in HCT, and 15 others had an asthma-like response. Thoracotomy-induced rib fusion (OR 3.4, 95%CI 1.3-8.7, P=0.01) and GER-associated epithelial metaplasia in adulthood (OR 3.0, 95%CI 1.0-8.9, P=0.05) were the most significant risk factors for restrictive ventilatory defect. Vertebral anomalies were evident in 45 patients, predominating in the cervical spine in 38. The most significant risk factor for the occurrence of vertebral anomalies was any additional anomaly (OR 27, 95%C I8-100). Scoliosis (over 10 degrees) was observable in 56 patients, over 20 degrees in 11, and over 45 degrees in one. In the EA patients, risk for scoliosis over 10 degrees was 13-fold (OR 13, 95%CI 8.3-21) and over 20 degrees, 38-fold (OR 38, 95%CI 14-106) when compared to that of the general population. Thoracotomy-induced rib fusion (OR 3.6, 95%CI 0.7-19) and other associated anomalies (OR 2.1, 95%CI 0.9-2.9) were the strongest predictive factors for scoliosis. Significant esophageal morbidity associated with EA extends into adulthood. No association existed between the esophageal symptoms and histological findings. Surgical complications, increasing age, and impaired esophageal motility predicted development of epithelial metaplasia after repair of EA. According to our data, the risk for esophageal cancer is less than 500-fold that of the general population. However, the overall cancer incidence among adults with repaired EA did not differ from that of the general population. Adults with repaired EA have had significantly more respiratory symptoms and infections, as well as more asthma, and allergies than does the general population. Thoracotomy-induced rib fusion and GER-associated columnar epithelial metaplasia were the most significant risk factors for the restrictive ventilatory defect that occurred in over half the patients. Over half the patients with repaired EA are likely to develop scoliosis. Risk for scoliosis is 13-fold after repair of EA in relation to that of the general population. Nearly half the patients had vertebral anomalies. Most of these deformities were diagnosed neither in infancy nor during growth. The natural history of spinal deformities seems, however, rather benign, with spinal surgery rarely indicated.

Outcomes of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (RAAA) is a life-threatening event, and without operative treatment the patient will die. The overall mortality can be as high as 80-90%; thus repair of RAAA should be attempted whenever feasible. The quality of life (QoL) has become an increasingly important outcome measure in vascular surgery. Aim of the study was to evaluate outcomes of RAAA and to find out predictors of mortality. In Helsinki and Uusimaa district 626 patients were identified to have RAAA in 1996-2004. Altogether 352 of them were admitted to Helsinki University Central Hospital (HUCH). Based on Finnvasc Registry, 836 RAAA patients underwent repair of RAAA in 1991-1999. The 30-day operative mortality, hospital and population-based mortality were assessed, and the effect of regional centralisation and improving in-hospital quality on the outcome of RAAA. QoL was evaluated by a RAND-36 questionnaire of survivors of RAAA. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), which measure length and QoL, were calculated using the EQ-5D index and estimation of life expectancy. The predictors of outcome after RAAA were assessed at admission and 48 hours after repair of RAAA. The 30-day operative mortality rate was 38% in HUCH and 44% nationwide, whereas the hospital mortality was 45% in HUCH. Population-based mortality was 69% in 1996-2004 and 56% in 2003-2004. After organisational changes were undertaken, the mortality decreased significantly at all levels. Among the survivors, the QoL was almost equal when compared with norms of age- and sex-matched controls; only physical functioning was slightly impaired. Successful repair of RAAA gave a mean of 4.1 (0-30.9) QALYs for all RAAA patients, although non-survivors were included. The preoperative Glasgow Aneurysm Score was an independent predictor of 30-day operative mortality after RAAA, and it also predicted the outcome at 48- hours for initial survivors of repair of RAAA. A high Glasgow Aneurysm Score and high age were associated with low numbers of QALYs to be achieved. Organ dysfunction measured by the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score at 48 hours after repair of RAAA was the strongest predictor of death. In conclusion surgery of RAAA is a life-saving and cost-effective procedure. The centralisation of vascular emergencies improved the outcome of RAAA patients. The survivors had a good QoL after RAAA. Predictive models can be used on individual level only to provide supplementary information for clinical decision-making due to their moderate discriminatory value. These results support an active operation policy, as there is no reliable measure to predict the outcome after RAAA.

Augmenting process elicitation with visual priming: An empirical exploration of user behaviour and modelling outcomes

Business process models have become an effective way of examining business practices to identify areas for improvement. While common information gathering approaches are generally efficacious, they can be quite time consuming and have the risk of developing inaccuracies when information is forgotten or incorrectly interpreted by analysts. In this study, the potential of a role-playing approach to process elicitation and specification has been examined. This method allows stakeholders to enter a virtual world and role-play actions similarly to how they would in reality. As actions are completed, a model is automatically developed, removing the need for stakeholders to learn and understand a modelling grammar. An empirical investigation comparing both the modelling outputs and participant behaviour of this virtual world role-play elicitor with an S-BPM process modelling tool found that while the modelling approaches of the two groups varied greatly, the virtual world elicitor may not only improve both the number of individual process task steps remembered and the correctness of task ordering, but also provide a reduction in the time required for stakeholders to model a process view.

IMPOSE (IMProving Outcomes after Sepsis)—the effect of a multidisciplinary follow-up service on health-related quality of life in patients postsepsis syndromes—a double-blinded randomised controlled trial: protocol

Introduction Patients post sepsis syndromes have a poor quality of life and a high rate of recurring illness or mortality. Follow-up clinics have been instituted for patients postgeneral intensive care but evidence is sparse, and there has been no clinic specifically for survivors of sepsis. The aim of this trial is to investigate if targeted screening and appropriate intervention to these patients can result in an improved quality of life (Short Form 36 health survey (SF36V.2)), decreased mortality in the first 12 months, decreased readmission to hospital and/or decreased use of health resources. Methods and analysis 204 patients postsepsis syndromes will be randomised to one of the two groups. The intervention group will attend an outpatient clinic two monthly for 6 months and receive screening and targeted intervention. The usual care group will remain under the care of their physician. To analyse the results, a baseline comparison will be carried out between each group. Generalised estimating equations will compare the SF36 domain scores between groups and across time points. Mortality will be compared between groups using a Cox proportional hazards (time until death) analysis. Time to first readmission will be compared between groups by a survival analysis. Healthcare costs will be compared between groups using a generalised linear model. Economic (health resource) evaluation will be a within-trial incremental cost utility analysis with a societal perspective. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval has been granted by the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC; HREC/13/QRBW/17), The University of Queensland HREC (2013000543), Griffith University (RHS/08/14/HREC) and the Australian Government Department of Health (26/2013). The results of this study will be submitted to peer-reviewed intensive care journals and presented at national and international intensive care and/or rehabilitation conferences.

Evaluating the effectiveness of a self-management exercise intervention on wound healing, functional ability and health-related quality of life outcomes in adults with venous leg ulcers: a randomised controlled trial

Exercise that targets ankle joint mobility may lead to improvement in calf muscle pump function and subsequent healing. The objectives of this research were to assess the impact of an exercise intervention in addition to routine evidence-based care on the healing rates, functional ability and health-related quality of life for adults with venous leg ulcers (VLUs). This study included 63 patients with VLUs. Patients were randomised to receive either a 12-week exercise intervention with a telephone coaching component or usual care plus telephone calls at the same timepoints. The primary outcome evaluated the effectiveness of the intervention in relation to wound healing. The secondary outcomes evaluated physical activity, functional ability and health-related quality of life measures between groups at the end of the 12 weeks. A per protocol analysis complemented the effectiveness (intention-to-treat) analysis to highlight the importance of adherence to an exercise intervention. Intention-to-treat analyses for the primary outcome showed 77% of those in the intervention group healed by 12 weeks compared to 53% of those in the usual care group. Although this difference was not statistically significant due to a smaller than expected sample size, a 24% difference in healing rates could be considered clinically significant. The per protocol analysis for wound healing, however, showed that those in the intervention group who adhered to the exercise protocol 75% or more of the time were significantly more likely to heal and showed higher rates for wound healing than the control group (P = 0·01), that is, 95% of those who adhered in the intervention group healed in 12 weeks. The secondary outcomes of physical activity, functional ability and health-related quality of life were not significantly altered by the intervention. Among the secondary outcomes (physical activity, functional ability and health-related quality of life), intention-to-treat analyses did not support the effectiveness of the intervention. However, per protocol analyses revealed encouraging results with those participants who adhered more than 75% of the time (n = 19) showing significantly improved Range of Ankle Motion from the self-management exercise programme (P = 0·045). This study has shown that those participants who adhere to the exercise programme as an adjunctive treatment to standard care are more likely to heal and have better functional outcomes than those who do not adhere to the exercises in conjunction with usual care.

Consumer’s comparison between local and imported organic products: A hedonic analysis of the Japanese table wine market

Although hundreds of thousands of organic products are traded on a daily basis, it is less known how imported organic products are evaluated by consumers in an importing country. The paper analyzes Japanese wine point of sale (POS) data to examine whether consumers differentiate between local and imported organic products. The results of our hedonic analyses show that the premium for imported organic red (white) wines is about 42.996 % (8.872 %) while that for domestic red (white) organic wines is about 6.440 % (1.214 %), implying that Japanese consumers pay higher premiums for imported organic agricultural products than for those produced in Japan.

Morbid obesity in total hip arthroplasty: Redefining outcomes for operative time, length of stay, and readmission

Background The incidence of obesity amongst patients presenting for elective Total Hip Arthroplasty (THA) has increased in the last decade and the relationship between obesity and the need for joint replacement has been demonstrated. This study evaluates the effects of morbid obesity on outcomes following primary THA by comparing short-term outcomes in THA between a morbidly obese (BMI ≥40) and a normal weight (BMI 18.5 - <25) cohort at our institution between January 2003 and December 2010. Methods Thirty-nine patients included in the morbidly obese group were compared with 186 in the normal weight group. Operative time, length of stay, complications, readmission and length of readmission were compared. Results Operative time was increased in the morbidly obese group at 122 minutes compared with 100 minutes (p=0.002). Post-operatively there was an increased 30-day readmission rate related to surgery of 12.8% associated with BMI ≥40 compared with 2.7% (p= 0.005) as well as a 5.1 fold increase in surgery related readmitted bed days - 0.32 bed days per patient for normal weight compared with 1.64 per patient for the morbidly obese (p=0.026). Conclusion Morbidly obese patients present a technical challenge and likely this and the resultant complications are underestimated. More work needs to be performed in order to enable suitable allocation of resources.

Performance based planning in Queensland : A case of unintended plan-making outcomes

Performance based planning (PBP) is purported to be a viable alternative to traditional zoning. The implementation of PBP ranges between pure approaches that rely on predetermined quantifiable performance standards to determine land use suitability, and hybrid approaches that rely on a mix of activity based zones in addition to prescriptive and subjective standards. Jurisdictions in the USA, Australia and New Zealand have attempted this type of land use regulation with varying degrees of success. Despite the adoption of PBP legislation in these jurisdictions, this paper argues that a lack of extensive evaluation means that PBP is not well understood and the purported advantages of this type of planning are rarely achieved in practice. Few empirical studies have attempted to examine how PBP has been implemented in practice. In Queensland, Australia, the Integrated Planning Act 1997 (IPA) operated as Queensland's principal planning legislation between March 1998 and December 2009. While the IPA did not explicitly use the term performance based planning, the Queensland's planning system is widely considered to be performance based in practice. Significantly, the IPA prevented Local Government from prohibiting development or use and the term zone was absent from the legislation. How plan-making would be advanced under the new planning regime was not clear, and as a consequence local governments produced a variety of different plan-making approaches to comply with the new legislative regime. In order to analyse this variation the research has developed a performance adoption spectrum to classify plans ranging between pure and hybrid perspectives of PBP. The spectrum compares how land use was regulated in seventeen IPA plans across Queensland. The research found that hybrid plans predominated, and that over time a greater reliance on risk adverse drafting approaches created a quasi-prohibition plan, the exact opposite of what was intended by the IPA. This paper concludes that the drafting of the IPA and absence of plan-making guidance contributed to lack of shared understanding about the intended direction of the new planning system and resulted in many administrative interpretations of the legislation. It was a planning direction that tried too hard to be different, and as a result created a perception of land use risk and uncertainty that caused a return to more prescriptive and inflexible plan-making methods.

The channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions and statements in the Australian equity market

Owing to the discrete disclosure practices of the Reserve Bank of Australia, this paper provides new evidence on the channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions (monetary policy announcements) and statements (explanatory minutes releases), in the Australian equity market. Both monetary policy announcements and explanatory minutes releases are shown to have a significant and comparable impact on the returns and volatility of the Australian equity market. Further, distinct from US and European studies that find strong evidence of the interest rate, bank loan and balance sheet channels and no evidence of the exchange rate channel following central bank actions, this paper finds that monetary policy impacts the Australian equity market via the exchange rate, interest rate and bank loan channels of monetary policy, with only weak evidence of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy. These channels are found to be operating irrespective of the trigger (monetary policy announcements or explanatory minutes releases), though results are somewhat weaker when examining the explanatory minutes releases. These results have important implications for central bank officials and financial market participants alike: by confirming a comparable avenue to affect monetary policy; and providing an explication of its impact on the Australian equity market.

The good, the bad and the ugly of bone-anchored prostheses: Guideline to assess true clinical outcomes

The aim of this study is to share the key elements of an evaluation framework to determine the true clinical outcomes of bone-anchored prostheses. Scientists, clinicians and policy makers are encouraged to implement their own evaluations relying on the proposed framework using a single database to facilitate reflective practice and, eventually, robust prospective studies.

A cultural assessment of family dispute resolution: Findings about access, retention and outcomes from the evaluation of a Family Relationship Centre

The cultural appropriateness of human service processes is a major factor in determining the effectiveness of their delivery. Sensitivity to issues of culture is particularly critical in dealing with family disputes, which are generally highly emotive and require difficult decisions to be made regarding children, material assets and ongoing relationships. In this article we draw on findings from an evaluation of the Family Relationship Centre at Broadmeadows (FRCB) to offer some insights into and suggestions about managing cultural matters in the current practice of family dispute resolution (FDR) in Australia. The brief for the original research was to evaluate the cultural appropriateness of FDR services offered to culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities living within the FRCB’s catchment area, specifically members of the Lebanese, Turkish and Iraqi communities. The conclusions of the evaluations were substantially positive. The work of the Centre was found to illustrate many aspects of best practice but also raised questions worthy of future exploration. The current article reports on issues of access, retention and outcomes obtained by CALD clients at various stages of the FRCB service.

Vaikuttavuusyhteiskunta : Sosiaalisten olojen arvostelusta vaikutusten todentamiseen

Evaluation practices have pervaded the Finnish society and welfare state. At the same time the term effectiveness has become a powerful organising concept in welfare state activities. The aim of the study is to analyse how the outcome-oriented society came into being through historical processes, to answer the question of how social policy and welfare state practices were brought under the governance of the concept of effectiveness . Discussions about social imagination, Michel Foucault s conceptions of the history of the present and of governmentality, genealogy and archaeology, along with Ian Hacking s notions of dynamic nominalism and styles of reasoning, are used as the conceptual and methodological starting points for the study. In addition, Luc Boltanski s and Laurent Thévenot s ideas of orders of worth , regimes of evaluation in everyday life, are employed. Usually, evaluation is conceptualised as an autonomous epistemic culture and practice (evaluation as epistemic practice), but evaluation is here understood as knowledge-creation processes elementary to different epistemic practices (evaluation in epistemic practices). The emergence of epistemic cultures and styles of reasoning about the effectiveness or impacts of welfare state activities are analysed through Finnish social policy and social work research. The study uses case studies which represent debates and empirical research dealing with the effectiveness and quality of social services and social work. While uncertainty and doubts over the effects and consequences of welfare policies have always been present in discourses about social policy, the theme has not been acknowledged much in social policy research. To resolve these uncertainties, eight styles of reasoning about such effects have emerged over time. These are the statistical, goal-based, needs-based, experimental, interaction-based, performance measurement, auditing and evidence-based styles of reasoning. Social policy research has contributed in various ways to the creation of these epistemic practices. The transformation of the welfare state, starting at the end of 1980s, increased market-orientation and trimmed public welfare responsibilities, and led to the adoption of the New Public Management (NPM) style of leadership. Due to these developments the concept of effectiveness made a breakthrough, and new accountabilities with their knowledge tools for performance measurement and auditing and evidence-based styles of reasoning became more dominant in the ruling of the welfare state. Social sciences and evaluation have developed a heteronomous relation with each other, although there still remain divergent tendencies between them. Key words: evaluation, effectiveness, social policy, welfare state, public services, sociology of knowledge