Proposal and validation of methodologies for the categorisation of continuous variables in the development of prediction models

158 p.

Field validation of the 'Logie' fish counter at Forge weir on the River Lune, 1992

The stock assessment task group report (1991) mentions that fish counters could play a key role in providing data on the size of the adult stock, and in particular the migratory salmonid stock. This report assesses the performance of the 'logie' fish counter at Forge Weir on the River Lune. Using video surveillance, a total of 1137 hours time lapse and 15 hours real time were used for validation purposes. This report looks at materials and methods, counting accuracy, sizing ability and environmental conditions, performance across the electrode array and salmonid swimming speed.

Validation of the performance of the Aquantic 2100A fish counter

This report looks at the validation of the performance of the Logie 2100A fish counter which was carried out at Forge Weir (River Lune) and Gunnislake Fish Pass (River Tamar), using a video recording system.

Age validation, growth, mortality, and demographic modeling of spotted gully shark (Triakis megalopterus) from the southeast coast of South Africa

This study documents validation of vertebral band-pair formation in spotted gully shark (Triakis megalopterus) with the use of fluorochrome injection and tagging of captive and wild sharks over a 21-year period. Growth and mortality rates of T. megalopterus were also estimated and a demographic analysis of the species was conducted. Of the 23 OTC (oxytetracycline) -marked vertebrae examined (12 from captive and 11 from wild sharks), seven vertebrae (three from captive and four from wild sharks) exhibited chelation of the OTC and fluoresced under ultraviolet light. It was concluded that a single opaque and translucent band pair was deposited annually up to at least 25 years of age, the maximum age recorded. Reader precision was assessed by using an index of average percent error calculated at 5%. No significant differences were found between male and female growth patterns (P>0.05), and von Bertalanffy growth model parameters for combined sexes were estimated to be L∞=1711.07 mm TL, k=0.11/yr and t0=–2.43 yr (n=86). Natural mortality was estimated at 0.17/yr. Age at maturity was estimated at 11 years for males and 15 years for females. Results of the demographic analysis showed that the population, in the absence of fishing mortality, was stable and not significantly different from zero and particularly sensitive to overfishing. At the current age at first capture and natural mortality rate, the fishing mortality rate required to result in negative population growth was low at F>0.004/ yr. Elasticity analysis revealed that juvenile survival was the principal factor in explaining variability in population growth rate.

Age validation of great hammerhead shark (Sphyrna mokarran), determined by bomb radiocarbon analysis

Preliminary validation of annual growth band deposition in vertebrae of great hammerhead shark (Sphyrna mokarran) was conducted by using bomb radiocarbon analysis. Adult specimens (n=2) were collected and thin sections of vertebral centra were removed for visual aging and use in radiocarbon assays. Vertebral band counts were used to estimate age, and year of formation was assigned to each growth band by subtracting estimated age from the year of capture. A total of 10 samples were extracted from growth bands and analyzed for Δ14C. Calculated Δ14C values from dated bands were compared to known-age reference chronologies, and the resulting patterns indicated annual periodicity of growth bands up to a minimum age of 42 years. Trends in Δ14C across time in individual specimens indicated that vertebral radiocarbon is conserved through time but that habitat and diet may inf luence Δ14C levels in elasmobranchs. Although the age validation reported here must be considered preliminary because of the small sample size and narrow age range of individuals sampled, it represents the first confirmation of age in S. mokarran, further illustrating the usefulness of bomb radiocarbon analysis as a tool for life history studies in elasmobranchs.

Age validation of Dover sole (Microstomus pacificus) by means of bomb radiocarbon

We used bomb radiocarbon (14C) in this age validation study of Dover sole (Microstomus pacificus). The otoliths of Dover sole, a commercially important fish in the North Pacific, are difficult to age and ages derived from the current break-andburn method were not previously validated. The otoliths used in this study were chosen on the basis of estimated birth year and for the ease of interpreting growth zone patterns. Otolith cores, material representing years 0 through 3, were isolated and analyzed for 14C. Additionally, a small number of otoliths with difficult-to-interpret growth patterns were analyzed for 14C to help determine age interpretation. The measured Dover sole 14C values in easier-to-interpret otoliths were compared with a 14C reference chronology for Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) in the North Pacific. We used an objective statistical analysis where sums of squared residuals between otolith 14C values of Dover sole and the reference chronology were examined. Our statistical analysis also included a procedure where the Dover sole 14C values were standardized to the reference chronology. These procedures allowed an evaluation of aging error. The 14C results indicated that the Dover sole age estimates from the easier-to-interpret otoliths with the break-and-burn method are accurate. This study validated Dover sole ages from 8 to 47 years.

Effects of commercial fishing on local abundance of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in the Bering Sea

Groundfish fisheries in the southeast Bering Sea in Alaska have been constrained in recent years by management measures to protect the endangered Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus). There is concern that the present commercial harvest may produce a localized depletion of groundfish that would affect the foraging success of Steller sea lions or other predators. A three-year field experiment was conducted to determine whether an intensive trawl fishery in the southeast Bering Sea created a localized depletion in the abundance of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus). This experiment produced strongly negative results; no difference was found in the rate of seasonal change in Pacific cod abundance between stations within a regulatory no-trawl zone and stations in an immediately adjacent trawled area. Corollary studies showed that Pacific cod in the study area were highly mobile and indicated that the geographic scale of Pacific cod movement was larger than the spatial scale used as the basis for current no-trawl zones. The idea of localized depletion is strongly dependent on assumed spatial and temporal scales and contains an implicit assumption that there is a closed local population. The scale of movement of target organisms is critical in determining regional effects of fishery removals.

A judicialização da saúde na perspectiva da gestão local : um estudo da experiência de Saquarema - RJ

A Constituição Federal de 1988 garante o direito à saúde no Brasil a todos os brasileiros. Para assegurar esse direito constitucional foi instituído através das Leis ns 8080/90 e 8142/90, o Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), organização de direito público que normatiza toda a prestação de assistência à saúde da população. O SUS, constituído a partir de diretrizes filosóficas, garante assistência universal e gratuita em todas as áreas do setor saúde. Incorporado ao SUS através da Política Nacional de Medicamentos e depois pela Política Nacional de Assistência Farmacêutica, o acesso a medicamentos é um setor estratégico da política pública de saúde. A judicialização do acesso à saúde e à assistência farmacêutica, que se converteu em recurso necessário para garantir o direito à saúde no Brasil, é hoje um importante componente da gestão municipal de saúde. Trata-se de um processo que se inicia com a aquisição de medicamentos para tratar o HIV/Aids na década de 1990. Este trabalho realizou uma pesquisa, de caráter exploratório, no município de Saquarema, que permitiu construir uma análise (qualitativa e quantitativa) das ordens judiciais, procedentes da Defensoria Pública da Comarca de Saquarema para aquisição de medicamentos, entre 01/01/2011 e 31/12/2012, totalizando 106 demandas, a partir de prescrições médicas individuais feitas por profissionais do SUS. A pesquisa constatou que a hipossuficiência de recursos e a urgência dos autores das ações são os principais respaldos das decisões judiciais. Ela também observou que a maioria dos requerentes é do gênero feminino, com idade acima de 61 anos, com patologias crônicas e fazendo uso contínuo de medicamentos. Esses medicamentos foram prescritos por quatro profissionais médicos oriundos de quatro especialidades (oftalmologia, cardiologia, endocrinologia e pediatria) e representam 60% das demandas judiciais. A situação de conflito pesquisada mostra que o direito à saúde está sendo exercido através do Poder Judiciário, com uma Defensoria Pública relativamente eficiente, atendendo a uma população com poucos recursos econômicos, que faz uso de medicamentos para tratamento de doenças crônicas e degenerativas. A prescrição médica individual é o documento necessário para requisitar os medicamentos de uso contínuo. A pesquisa, após analisar os principais resultados, aponta algumas alternativas, chamadas de ações defensivas, que as gestões municipais de saúde em Saquarema e outras municipalidades podem adotar.

Validation of a method for estimating realized annual fecundity in a multiple spawner, the long-snouted seahorse (Hippocampus guttulatus), using underwater visual census

The long-snouted seahorse (Hippocampus guttulatus) (Cuvier, 1829), was used to validate the pre-dictive accuracy of three progressively realistic models for estimating the realized annual fecundity of asyn-chronous, indeterminate, multiple spawners. Underwater surveys and catch data were used to estimate the duration of the reproductive season, female spawning frequency, male brooding frequency, and batch fecun-dity. The most realistic model, a generalization of the spawning fraction method, produced unbiased estimates of male brooding frequency (mean ±standard deviation [SD]=4.2 ±1.6 broods/year). Mean batch fecundity and realized annual fecundity were 213.9 (±110.9) and 903.6 (±522.4), respectively. However, females prepared significantly more clutches than the number of broods produced by males. Thus, methods that infer spawning frequency from patterns in female egg production may lead to significant overestimates of realized annual fecundity. The spawning fraction method is broadly applicable to many taxa that exhibit parental care and can be applied nondestructively to species for which conservation is a concern.